Bitcoin is so close to falling into a Bear, repeating Aug 2023First off, this maybe the last time I post this chart. Binance are Stopping USDT use from tomorrow morning. I have used this chart since around March 2020 and it is my most trusted,. A sad day for me. This chart saw me through Bulk Run, Deep Bear and now this Recovery and Bull run.
ANYWAY, the Arrow points towards a time in 2023 when we were so close to dropping into a Bear market for a number of reasons. Lets just say that Long Red Candle shoiwed a sudden weakening of Sentiment, A Lot of selling and confidence went.
It took a number of weeks for confidence to return.
And Now, we have a Similar thing. FEAR is high
AND I AM BUYING MORE BITCOIN - this is excellent...because when the price rises again, this maybe the last we see this price range.
We have Loads of support below.
It is that RED 236 Fib circle that is dragging PA down, as I mentioned last week. This and the Fact that the Weekly MACD is still falling Bearish
As you can see, the weekly MACD hits Neutral around 21 April, in 3 weeks time. It is from this point forwards that I believe we will see major shift's in Sentiment and PA action. Possibly earlier but maybe not strongly.
Also note how the Histogram is levelling out. We need to see a White candle in the coming weeks or we could be facing bigger issues maybe.
The Daily version of this same chart shows us very clearly where we are.
This is Great News. We have broken through that 236 Red Fib circle. It is now Support. though we are under a line of resistance. But we broke through that in the recent past.
I still think we will visit 78K again for a very short period of time. ( Hopefully, nothing is certain)
Currently, the shorter term charts show Support found on the 618 Fib retracement line. And we need to see if this holds
Over all, We are near the end of the first phase of this pause in Pushes higher. We have that wall at 109K to break through in the longer Term. Once Weekly MACD is on neutral, we will wait fo rthe daily to get there also and then we can push higher with Strength.
This push maynot be a single push. the Weight of BTC with its current price holds back the sprints to ATH we once saw.
Patience is a Virtue
HOLD and BUY MORE
Bycusdt
BTCUSDT TRDAING POINT UPDATE > READ THE CHAPTIAN Buddy'S dear friend
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Key Resistance level 87k + 80k + 90k
Key Support level 83k - 80k
Mr SMC Trading point
Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
Bitcoin Rising to Fill most recent CME GAP - what then ?We have seen some pretty Good CME Gaps in recent months, a sign of volatility.
And, as I have been saying, CME GAPS ALWAYS GET FILLLED
the proof of that is right here, showing you the recent ones.
So, eight now, we are filling a gap from Below
The question is, what will we do than? Once the Gap is filled at around 86485
I would be a Very rich man if I knew for sure but as I have been saying in a few posts, I do not think PA is fully ready to berak out just yet BUT we may see a push higher to around 90K before it returns to the Low, maybe even to dip lower into the 73K zone.
But, obviously, this may not happen. However, Next time you see a CME Gap, understand it WILL get Filled.
If in a bull run Move, it will remain a gap till a later date, or, as we range as we are now, you can see howe this happens.
The Dips are great buying opportunists
Almost like the Fair Value Gaps ( FVG )
Stay safe
Montly Bitcoin Monthly close colours since August 2011Please find the monthly chart i have been posting on Trading View and X ( not for much longer) and now on PRIMAL on NOSTRA,the new World.
The Monthly Close Colours of Bitcoin since August 2011.
These historical sequences can normally lead to an understanding of "Flow".
However, I do feel things have changed a little, even though the ETF's are a small % of the total Bitcoin Market, there is influence.
So, The hope was that this month would close GREEN as in the past, this has been a the case during a bull run, or lead up to it, after the previous months sequence of colours.
This month will close RED it seems and There have been 3 occasions with a Green July followed by a Red August and 2 of them had a Red September following.
All 3 occasions could be said to have been in a BEAR.
HOWEVER, I have said before and I will say it again, PA seems to be following the 2013-> 2017 run and the 1st one of these 3 occasions was in August 2015, when the candle closed red after months of near static Range PA, as we have just had,..The following September was a small green candle but we then carried on to the 2017 ATH.
( August 2016 also closed RED with a Green September following.)
Interesting days ahead as I also have a number of charts that point towards September being a positive month for Bitcoin.
We will find out in the next few weeks if they are Valid or not.
Bitcoin matve recoverj g on PA but there maybe trouble aheadI thought I would Update the Fib Extensions to the Bitcoin Index MVRV Z score.
Hate to admit, I had forgotten to look at these recently.
And, Simply put, we Are approaching a line of Decision time.
That red line below the 236, is a point, that once crossed, is not that easy to rise above again till after hitting the bottom.
Vertical lines are ATH dates so, it is easy to see, MVRV has got no where near the usual ATH levels and so give hope for a further push higher, should we recover from dipping below the 236.
But as many of you know, that 236 is a Line of tough battles...itis not easy to recover above
We need to watch this very closely.
I am optimistic for a bounce now but we need to pay attention to the bigger picture. Monthly MACD is turning over, yet to cross bearish but the weekly is recovering nicely.
Back at the 100x longIt looks like btc is bouncing off key support at 56500-59500 usd. Key resistance is now at 72-74k. It has stayed in this trend from going in between these zones since late February (last 4 months). The RSI was also oversold at both 4H and daily. We are now looking for the MACD to flip bullish at higher timeframes 4H-1D (it is already bullish at 1H). When btc confirmed support (looking to at least get a bounce) and broke out of the downward sloping trend. I went in with a 100x long. The trade has been made risk free and I will move my stop loss into more profits (usually under the last bottom) as prices keep rising. Btc and the S&P500 index is also related and the S&P500 index is reversing and has some nasty gaps to fill. I predict that this index will get a correction of at least 7%. This is bullish for bitcoin! But let me tell more about the current trade. The worst possible scenario at the time of writing is that I get a 152% ROI and the best that can happen is that I make a 2000% ROI. This is a good position to be in if you ask me. I will make money regardless!
Bitcoin PA (Linear) and the 50 EMA repeating patternOn the main image, As noted on the Day counts, See how the 50 EMA ( red) was under the PA at the ATH but dropped below arounf 270 days later.
It then remained below PA for around 700 days from ATH and then, now it has broken above again, we are climbing.
Now compare that to the 2013 / 2014 PA
Same days counts and PA back above, it Rose steadily to a New ATH in 2017, 777 days later.
If you Look at the image below, Not only is PA following the Fractal, but thsat 777 day count brings PA right up to the 4.236 Fib line around April 2025, which has confluence with many charts
There re so many things going on with PA right now, that just copies the past, it is a little unnerving to be honest but at the same time, IT IS SUPERB
These Cycles DO Exist, no matter what is said or done to try and stop them.
However, it take three points of contact to make a trend line.
Rgus us ibkt rgw 2nd time "Trend Motion" has happened......
It may not end up like this at all and so , please be cautious...However, It is uncanny.....
Enjoy
BTCUSDT - Fib Channel - Thing of Beauty Fib channel alongside fibs. Beautiful thing. If the levels are lost then so be it. Nice indicator. :) In my opinion. Courtesy Chart Champions.
What I can see at the moment is the trend is breaking. Fractile (Green line) support. Monthly as per my previous post. Can 23,300 hold (dollars)?
BTC/USDT: Neutral between 19400 and 24900 (Caution)--- Mid-term Analysis for the next coming 4 weeks to 3 months - Based on Daily Chart -------
BTC/USDT: Neutral between 19400 and 24900 (Caution)
Context
- The Global Crypto market leads by BTC and ETH reversed a new bullish trend this summer - however the market is now challenging the capacity to go higher, 24900 never been reintegrated
- The global macro remains bearish (Crypto + Stocks market) leads by hawkish ton from central bank and a further inflation risk context
- BTC could outperform ETH in order to let ETH be aligned in term of price with ETH
Previous Analysis 09/09/2022 :
Market configuration
- Graphical Elements :
Graphical Resistance = 24900 & 28800
Graphical Support = 19400
- Mathematical Indicators:
EMA ( Exp Moving averages) are resistances at 24900 = Bearish
RSI indicator (below) is below 5% with no divergence = Bearish
- Elliot & Harmonic Wave (Fibonacci):
A last drop to draw the wave 5 C (4) has been completed - however 24900 never been surpassed
Fibonacci resistance of the wave (3) = 28800
Fibonacci support of the wave (2) is 19400
Fibonacci upside target = 32600
Fibonacci downside target = 16100 / 14600 / 12400
Conclusion
Combining the fondamental situation (Global macro fighting against inflation with hawkish ton from FED) + Technical Elements , it now hard to find element to call for a further recovery, it is better to protect the gains from the summer and wait for clearer situation
Neutral : We turn Neutral between 19400 and 24900, a break below 19400 would validate a further downside towards 16100 first max 14100 for the moment - Only a strong short-squeeze reintegrating 24900 would jeopardize the bear market.
btcusdt nearly came around $37,000 #BTCUSDT nearly came around $37,000 and whole market is red now.
#BTC closed below $38,000 at the end of the month, price broke below the strong support zone which is not turned it into resistance. Price retested and again rejected so movement is bearish. Keep your trades safe by using stoploss.
Price nearly tested the supporting down trendline. Now a pullback is expected till $39,400 and this will happen unless it breaks the pattern.
Market CapMarket Cap
The market analysis for the entire market gives very positive signals, as it ended with five waves and the ABC correction, and now it is accumulating in narrow areas, where liquidity has begun to gradually return to the market and the market cap has risen
When the downtrend is breached, we will witness gains for all currencies, God willing
good luck