Why C3.ai ($AI) Stock Is Struggling Despite Earnings Beat C3.ai (NYSE: NYSE:AI ) is facing a challenging day on the stock market after reporting its fiscal first-quarter earnings, even though it exceeded top- and bottom-line estimates. The company’s stock has plunged over 14% in Thursday’s session, reflecting investor concerns despite a strong earnings report.
Overview
C3.ai reported revenue of $87.2 million for the quarter ending July 31, representing a 20.5% increase year-over-year. This growth was driven by a 20% rise in subscription revenue, which reached $73.5 million. The company also narrowed its net loss per share to 5 cents, improving from 9 cents in the previous year. Both figures beat Wall Street’s expectations, which had forecasted revenue of $86.9 million and a net loss of 13 cents per share.
Despite these positive results, the company’s subscription revenue fell short of the anticipated $79.2 million, contributing to the stock's decline. CEO Thomas Siebel highlighted a “solid start” to the fiscal year, with C3.ai seeing continued demand for its enterprise AI solutions. However, the lower-than-expected subscription revenue overshadowed the overall positive earnings report.
Looking ahead, C3.ai provided a revenue forecast for Q2 of fiscal 2025 between $88.6 million and $93.6 million, aligning with analyst expectations. The full-year revenue guidance remains unchanged at $370 million to $395 million. However, the company also projected a larger-than-expected loss for the current quarter, further unsettling investors.
Technical Outlook
Technically, C3.ai’s stock is showing signs of strain. The shares, which had gained nearly 30% earlier this year, are now down roughly 30% since December 31. The latest price action indicates that the stock may be forming a bearish flag pattern, following a long uptrend. This pattern suggests that the current downtrend could extend further if bearish sentiment persists.
The stock’s recent drop has pushed it to its lowest levels in months, and several Wall Street analysts have revised their price targets downward. The consensus recommendation is now a "Hold," reflecting the mixed sentiment surrounding C3.ai’s performance and outlook.
Conclusion
C3.ai’s earnings report presented a mixed bag of results. While the company beat earnings estimates and continued to show growth in revenue, the underwhelming subscription revenue and higher-than-expected losses for the upcoming quarter have weighed heavily on its stock. As the company transitions to a consumption model, historically a challenging phase, investors remain cautious. The technical indicators also suggest that the stock may face further declines if the bearish trend continues. For now, investors are advised to stay alert to both fundamental updates and technical signals as C3.ai (NYSE: NYSE:AI ) navigates this turbulent period.
C3aichart
C3.ai ($AI) Shares Jumped 19.44% on Strong Q4 ResultsC3.ai ( NYSE:AI ), an AI software company, is expected to see revenue growth of around 23% in fiscal year 2025, with plans to continue investing in development to establish market leadership and build a profitable enterprise software company. The company is focusing on addressing a potentially $1 trillion addressable software market, which is considered the largest market opportunity in software history.
The company's strong Q4 results and optimistic outlook highlight its position in the rapidly evolving enterprise AI market. As businesses recognize the potential of AI to transform operations, C3.ai's focus on applications and its approach to addressing challenges associated with GenAI could significantly shape the industry's future.
However, the company must navigate an increasingly competitive landscape and demonstrate the tangible benefits of its offerings to maintain its growth trajectory. The coming quarters will be crucial in determining whether C3.ai ( NYSE:AI ) can capitalize on the opportunities presented by the expanding AI market and establish itself as a long-term leader.
Technical Outlook
C3.ai ( NYSE:AI ) stock is up 19.44% trading with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 68.27 which is slightly overbought prior the earnings Beat. The stock is trading a little bit higher above the 200-day Moving Average (MA).
A Dive into $AI Its Soaring Performance and Government PartnersShares of C3.ai surged after the AI-focused software-as-a-service (SaaS) company was name-checked by Oppenheimer on its list of stocks to own in 2024.
C3.ai ( NYSE:AI ) has been one of 2023's top-performing artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. It's up around 180% this year, but is down about 30% from its high set in June. With 2024 shaping up to be another strong year for AI-related companies.
The Government is Becoming a Large C3.ai Customer
C3.ai specializes in plug-and-play AI solutions for enterprise-level customers. With products ranging from energy management, demand forecasting, and anti-money laundering, C3.ai has solutions spanning multiple industries.
However, one of C3.ai's most lucrative clients in recent quarters has been the federal government. In its fiscal 2024 second quarter, which ended Oct. 31, 49% of bookings came from its federal, defense, and aerospace segment. In Q1, that share was 67%. Clearly, C3.ai's relationship with the U.S. government is a vital part of its business, making this a key metric to watch.
It also reflects the company's diversification away from the oil and natural gas industry, which accounted for 34% of bookings in its fiscal 2023. (That year, federal, aerospace, and defense was 29%.) This is good, as oil and natural gas industry spending has dried up for C3.ai.
In its fiscal Q1, only 1.5% of its bookings came from that space, and it reported no explicit bookings from it in Q2, though the results possibly landed in the "others" category, which comprised 0.1% of bookings.
Technical Analysis
C3.ai is in a rising trend channel in the medium long term. This shows that investors over time have bought the stock at higher prices and indicates good development for the company.
The stock has broken a resistance level in the short term and given a positive signal for the short-term trading range.
C3.AI stocks suppressed by the 1.618 level of the golden sectionC3.AI stocks suppressed by the 1.618 level of the golden section
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of C3. AI stocks for the past year. The graph overlays the low point at the end of 2022 against the golden section. As shown in the figure, the high points of C3.AI stocks at the end of May and July were precisely suppressed by the 1.618 level of the golden section in the figure, while the high point in June almost touched the short start level in November 2021! So for a period of time in the future, the probability of C3. AI stocks will probably rise again against the 0.618 to 0.809 positions in the golden section of the pullback chart!
C3.ai (AI) Looking Ready 4 Another ClimbI recon C3.ai have found another ladder to start climbing again after an inevitable lul in the market due to the initial 'hype' related to AI and c3.ai in particular had subsided only to leave the well known AI driven tech company to show why they are still a good investment through actual company performance as well as the fact that this week there was some good news from Oracle who gave AI stocks a boost, as the enterprise tech giant said strong cloud sales were being boosted by generative AI. That helped propel the broad market to a banner week, and C3.ai shares were up 24.4% for the week. So with all that inside info as well as the indicators on this chart you see here, Houston seems to be echoing in my analytical mind.
C3.AI: AI = SHORT - wyckoff distribution & bearish divergence1st - Bearish Divergence: RSI & MFI on 1D & 1W chart
2nd - Wyckoff Method: Distribution TR phase C (UTAD TEST) more pronounced in the 4&1H charts.
Analysis:
There seems to be weakness in the stock, and despite the recent highs and uptick in volume the exhaustion can be seen per the TA presented. BUT REMEMBER, the AI craze is still on going and this could be invalidated in minutes if the whales choose to push the price higher.
Targets if you trust the analysis:
Its pretty simple, I use fib retracement levels 21% and 38.2% as targets.
remember to use risk management and positioning!
*THIS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVICE, JUST SHARING MY ANALYSIS AND INTERNAL THOUGHTS TO MYSELF*
C3AI 17 min Pattern Search. Earnings WatchC3AI is a stock I am watching as it is a company I am watching. The world in front of us will be more and more run by machines and machines will be run by AI. When I see campaigns to lower a companies stock and the company does not flinch I also take notice. This is a new field with high risk. So crises money exits. But I believe this is a contender for “I wish I would have bought this under 50". I also prefer long-term investments to not be at the end of their life expectancy. That is better for short-term trades. I have watched this company go from small partnerships to full integrations. Integrations are much stronger than partnerships. C3AI is embedding itself into the operations management of the AI aspect of a machine-run world. Integrating is major when we are looking at machine learning. This embeds an early entry company into a market that requires time to learn. Replacing old systems and competition will be important where I look to see an emerging market for the data acquired function through time especially in the design of new sensors lower friction actuators and such. Google AI just used this technology in a virtual environment to solve imbalances in a plasma stream hotter than the core of the sun. This is the fusion reactor that is going to change the world. It would not be possible without systems like C3AI. this is the actual "Floor boss" of the machines. keeping every pulse and mechanism in a very specific state at a very precise moment and place in space-time.
Latest success from Google’s AI group: Controlling a fusion reactor
The AI was trained on a simulator to shape the plasma held within a tokamak.
JOHN TIMMER - 2/16/2022, 4:54 PM
Excerpt
"Developing the control software for a tokamak is a complicated process. Based on past experience with similar designs, engineers can extract some of the basic principles needed for the software to function, like what sensor inputs to read and how to respond to changes in them. But there are always quirks based on the design of the hardware and energies of the plasma being used. So, there tends to be an iterative process of measuring and modeling, followed by tweaks to the control process, all the while keeping the performance sufficient to make adjustments in near real-time. The resulting control software tends to be fairly specialized. If researchers want to experiment with a very different geometry for the plasma in the tokamak, a significant revision to the software may be required.
Researchers in the field had already identified artificial intelligence as a possible solution. Give the right AI sufficient examples, and it could figure out which control configurations produce the desired properties in the plasma. That would free people to focus on the desired end-state they wanted and then just let the software produce it for them so that they could study it. An AI should also be more flexible; once it is trained on how to control the system, it should be able to produce very different plasma configurations for study without the need for reprogramming."
From Google AI
"C3 AI’s applications leverage Google Cloud’s infrastructure and data engines and both companies’ AI/ML capabilities."
From C3AI
"C3 AI Data Fusion
C3 AI Data Fusion integrates, unifies, and de-conflicts disparate operational data sources and uses AI to enable effective and timely decision making in the field."
AI - C3AI - i am guessing a 100 million buyback likes low pricesSo do I. I think the crowd says it's too early the crowd says it's too late. Buy your time. I have time on this one and they are collecting the best group the best contracts. Their AI will be a competitor if not acquired by the overlords.