GBPUSD Daily Projection 30/09/22GBPUSD
GBPUSD finally confirmed its temporary uptrend after bullish engulfing last night, broke resistance 1.08693 and reached resistance 1.10793. The price probably will make a price correction today to its new support at 1.08693 before another attempt to penetrate resistance 1.10793 will be carried out up to the 100 MA at 1.12016. Stay alert because on a major or daily basis, Cable is still in a strong downtrend. Be careful, because today is the last day of the month. Where is the possibility that the price will make a correction to close the monthly candle.
Possible to take
Doing BUY on this pair does not get a good RR.
R3 1.13025
R2 1.12520
R1 1.12016
PV 1.10793
S1 1.08693
S2 1.07258
S3 1.06417
Cable
GBPJPY ...bearish 4H viewAfter completeion of the distribuation phase of Wyckoff with breaking out the support level which converted to resistance...retest was done and formation of new downtrend below the Fibo 0.61 level, below MA200 and bouncing off the trend line ...down move is expected from that level...be safe..
GBPUSD Daily Projection 28/09/22GBPUSD
GBPUSD moved quite slowly yesterday after correcting its MA8. The price was no longer able to break support 1.06417 for the second time and kept going back and forth to resistance 1.07258 which is also the current MA8. Use a breakout strategy on Cable if you want to enter this pair. Also be aware of the Daily correction which has the potential to reach 1.10000
It is better to wait for the clarity of the trend before entering this pair.
R3 1.12016
R2 1.10793
R1 1.08693
PV 1.07258
S1 1.06417
S2 1.05237
S3 1.03984
Pound weak and isolatedThe threat on the long term chart is unpleasant for GBP, 1.15xx and 1.05xx have been set up.
Just at the right moment, because BOE cannot now recapture the short-end of the rate curve with inflation still to reach his goal. To open things up, a simple test below 1.175x is all that is needed with Jackson to unlock the flow; a textbook swing ever since we saw restraint at 1.40xx.
If 1.175x is taken then 1.15xx is next to account, leaving 1.05xx wide open for this to collapse like a house of cards. After 1.15xx, I suspect the helplessness of buyers will be quite touching. This swing position is technically very similar to the previous GBP waterfalls we traded together with Brexit, Elections etc, a classical momentum move.
The prognosis for the Jackson flow seems quite good for sellers (not overwhelmingly so for those who are still sidelined). A test of the barricade at 1.19xx seems manageable, and where I am actively looking to add shorts, because for that the buyers would have been exhausted. Please note, invalidation only with closes above 1.20xx.
A master plan! Let's see how our counter attack move plays out.
ridethepig | GBP for the Yearly Close📌 @ridethepig GBP FX Commentary for the Yearly Close
Here I will start by presenting the following two diagrams:
The safety of the Pound turns out to be rather deceptive with a Johnson cabinet which is becoming increasingly weak. And once more, surprise surprise the reason no-deal brexit is being blocked after Biden blockades is a sufficient explanation of the 'rescue' attempt from globalism.
So the truth seems to come from the following facts;
A lot of Brexit depended on the Trump protection. Without it Johnson is hanging and must scramble back to the EU for security. We can argue about the MT and LT impacts of Brexit but the ST includes a loss of initial market access which is unfavourable for GBP anyway. The flow is clearly balanced towards the downside, despite the dollar becoming quite weak and resistance looks overprotected.
We will dig deeper and more frequently into the macro implications again in master praxis to track the inner flows. I will aim to close quite a few more of the original technical maps before we dissect the whys and hows of its worth.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
GBPUSD Daily Projection 27/09/22GBPUSD
GBPUSD tried to fight back its downtrend today but the price was rejected at 1.08693 while closing the gap that occurred at the beginning of the last week in September. The cable is currently forming a doji in the range 1.06417 - 1.07258 which if this becomes a higher low, there is a possibility that GBPUSd will temporarily maneuver at least to resistance 1.10793 as well as correction to the MA20.
Possible to take
SELL STOP 1.06127 SL 1.07724 TP 1.04144
R3 1.12016
R2 1.10793
R1 1.08693
PV 1.07258
S1 1.06417
S2 1.05237
S3 1.03984
$GBP - How low can we go?$GBP - How low can we go?
Tacking back to yrs of data, perhaps we go ahead to George Soros area of chart and going back to 84-87 areas of price action. Interesting times, I think 1.10 could be achievable as we are in recession, fundamentally very weak outlook for gbp and you got dollar king rising further as hikes remain on the table till end of yr for US.
Interesting times, for longer term this brings great opportunities of investing.
TJ
GBPUSD Today's Projection 26/09/22GBPUSD
GBPUSD fell more than 5% last week with the downtrend getting stronger. At the beginning of this week, Cable probably will make price correction which has not been done yet after breaking 4 supports at the end of last week, before continuing its downtrend and landing at support 1.07258.
Possible to take
SELL LIMIT 1.11884 SL 1.13880 TP 1.07363
R3 1.12520
R2 1.12016
R1 1.10793
PV 1.08693
S1 1.07258
S2 1.06417
S3 1.05237
GBPUSD MID TERM HUGE SELL OPPORTUNITYUse appropriate risk management. Last few posts have been incredibly successful so I'm using lower risk on this one.
My strategy is a confidential, but those that trade my posts don't get carried away with my extreme accuracy and how I usually have little to no drawdown - USE SLS!
This is a mid to potentially long term trade.
The target is lower than GU has been my entire lifetime and probably yours too, so most will disagree but I like to differ from the crowd in trading so the target is very much achievable nonetheless.
GBPUSD Today's Projection 21/09/22GBPUSD
GBPUSD again tried to penetrate the support area 1.13502 - 1.13695 for the third time this week and re-ejected. The downtrend is still quite visible in this pair with a reversal point at resistance 1.16714. Tonight's FOMC will determine whether the Cable will continue to fall deeper through this support or start a reversal and end the downtrend.
We test the waves with BUY LIMIT at 1.13750 SL 1.13397 TP 1.15400
R3 1.16714
R2 1.15414
R1 1.14139
PV 1.13695
S1 1.13502
S2 1.10793
S3 1.08693
GBPUSDGood news is that we are in profit and bad news is that a new level is forming.
According to my experience and long-term back-tests, we better to stay in the trade and the probabilities of breaking of the level is a little more higher than reversing from it in these cases. (Considering trend, formerly levels)
GBP/USD - Monthly Analysis - Sep Q3I'm back from vacation which means I'm back on the charts. Today I'll be sharing my monthly chart on the GBPUSD along with focusing on the interest rate differential and the 30 year US treasury bond supporting my directional market profile.
Clearly, GBPUSD is bearish and now trading below the previous 2020 low. Currently I can see price having the tendency to trade into the regions of <1.124, a monthly bullish order block before potentially turning bullish for the next seasonal period.
This is an important week, as we have interest rate decisions for both the FED (USD) and BoE (GBP). The current consensus is a 75bps hike for the Dollar and a 50bps hike for the Sterling, which again increases the interest rate differential between these two economies with the Dollar being stronger which supports my bias of this pair trading lower in the 1985 bullish order block.
Regarding the 30 year US treasury bond, without going too much into detail, I can see the treasury note creeping up higher (yields coming down) which generally means we could be seeing a weaker US Index in the horizon.
Finally, I just want to make a few points on this 1985 low and why price aggressively started trading higher for the Cable.
Ronald Reagan was in office in the 80's who had undertook major tax cuts boosting the American economy where in turn the FED decided to raise interest rates which prompts foreign investors to put their money into the US, thus sending the value of the Dollar higher against other foreign currencies. The strength of the dollar meant overseas buyers got less bang for their buck when trying to import goods from the US.
American manufacturers were therefore hard-hit by the exchange rate, which was harming its ability to export.
There were also concerns over protectionism, as other countries slapped tariffs on their own exports to take advantage of the dollar's value.
Eventually the US got together with France, West Germany, Japan and the UK and signed the Plaza Accord, which agreed to depreciate the value of the dollar.
Central bankers sold more dollars in exchange for other currencies, bringing its value down 40% in just two years, which is the sharp increase in the price of GBPUSD that you see on the charts in 1985.
I hope this post has been useful.
Aman | SMC Wolf FX