GBPUSD The Cable here on the cable we have a bearish Gartley Pattern. We currently have price kissing the 786 at the moment. what were looking for si some consolidation some confirmation on the oscillators and another good move down. This will be my second entry on the cable as i am currently short off a daily pattern. for the past two weeks we have seen the cable retrace up after the strong move down. I will be looking for an entry on the 1h. Sorry for not going into it any deeper i am behind on some school work and I am also getting back into the 4H time frame trading gonna slowly get down to the 1H again. I am also in the process in making a few courses as well that covers harmonic trading along with a myriad of other topics. When the courses go live i will upgrade my TradingView package to Premium and advertise them on my TradingView.
Cable
GBP - BULLISHThe focus for GBP is likely to be firmly fixed on the coronavirus outbreak now that the UK and EU have reached a Brexit agreement.
Of course, although the market's focus on Brexit is now likely to markedly fade, the UK and EU's relationship will still remain of importance for GBP. This has been highlighted in recent sessions by the rise in UK/EU tensions over coronavirus vaccine supplies and distribution.
Regarding the UK's coronavirus outlook, this remains encouraging with the UK's vaccine program having administered at least one dose to over half of the UK population. Given the current success of its vaccine program, the UK is now in the early stages of lifting lockdown restrictions.
While the UK's coronavirus outlook is improving, we expect GBP to remain well supported, resulting in a bullish fundamental outlook.
GBP/USD – Week 14 – In the middle of the correction.Last week, GBPUSD continued its corrective move towards the liquidity pool area without any major swings.
For this week, we expect the correction to continue until it will reach the liquidity pool area highlighted on our chart. From that point we will study the price action as we will start and look for sell setups that could push the price towards the 1.35 support area.
Trade with care.
Best regards,
Financial Flagship
Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
GBP: Current Sentiment DriversLatest Developments:
March 31 – GDP for Q4 printed at 1.3% Q/Q and -7.3% Y/Y, revised from 1.0% and -7.8%, respectively. The report published by the ONS also noted that household savings for the quarter grew to their biggest ever level. This is supportive of recent comments from the BoE, who expect a significant increase in consumer activity once lockdowns are lifted.
March 30 – The UK’s coronavirus count increased to 4,341,736 cases (+4,040).
March 24 – CPI for February slowed to 0.4% Y/Y (prior 0.7%) and printed at 0.1% M/M (prior -0.2%). Core CPI slowed to 0.9% Y/Y (prior 1.4%) and printed at 0.0% M/M (prior -0.5%).
March 18 – At their March meeting, the BoE kept its official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.10% and its QE programme at £895 billion. The BoE added that they do not intend to tighten policy until there is clear evidence that there is significant progress towards eliminating spare capacity and achieving its 2% inflation goal.
February 23 – The Unemployment Rate for December increased to 5.1% from a prior of 5.0%. Employment Change printed at -114K while Average Earnings printed at 4.7% 3M Y/Y. For January, Claimant Count Change printed at -20.0K.
Future Sentiment Shifts:
There are several risks to GBP’s outlook, particularly with respect to the UK’s coronavirus/lockdown outlook and interest rate expectations.
Of these two, expect the UK’s coronavirus outlook to play the more influential role in the short term as the UK’s coronavirus vaccine rollout continues to show signs of stabilizing its breakout, which in turn, should allow the UK to ease lockdown restrictions in the months ahead. However, in the medium term, as the market’s focus shifts, monetary policy should dominate.
Regarding monetary policy, risks still remain; although, further easing appears unlikely at this point and markets looking for a hike in 2022.
Primary Drivers:
Bank of England – Monetary Policy in the UK remains highly influential to GBP’s fundamental outlook.
Expectations for policy tightening should prove GBP positive, while expectations for policy easing should prove GBP negative.
Brexit – The outlook for the UK’s exit from the EU in December remains a key influence for GBP as it poses significant risks to the UK’s economic outlook. With the UK set to leave at the end of the year and progress in negotiations between the UK and the EUR significantly hampered by the coronavirus outbreak, risks remain firmly tilted to the downside with a hard Brexit or even no deal Brexit remaining distinct possibilities.
Anyone selling GBPUSD? 🙋🏼♂️The buy reversed, we got a reverse signal as you can see.
Entry details are shown on the chart.
We're only looking for TP3.
Trade history can be seen below this trade idea too for full transparency.
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The stats for this pair are shown below too.
Thank you.
Darren
GBP: Current Sentiment DriversLatest Developments:
March 28 – The UK’s coronavirus count increased to 4,333,042 cases (+3,862).
March 24 – CPI for February slowed to 0.4% Y/Y (prior 0.7%) and printed at 0.1% M/M (prior -0.2%). Core CPI slowed to 0.9% Y/Y (prior 1.4%) and printed at 0.0% M/M (prior -0.5%).
March 18 – At their March meeting, the BoE kept its official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.10% and its QE programme at £895 billion. The BoE added that they do not intend to tighten policy until there is clear evidence that there is significant progress towards eliminating spare capacity and achieving its 2% inflation goal.
February 23 – The Unemployment Rate for December increased to 5.1% from a prior of 5.0%. Employment Change printed at -114K while Average Earnings printed at 4.7% 3M Y/Y. For January, Claimant Count Change printed at -20.0K.
November 12 – Preliminary Q3 GDP printed at 15.5% Q/Q and -9.6% Y/Y versus expectations for 15.8% and -9.4% respectively.
Future Sentiment Shifts:
There are several risks to GBP’s outlook, particularly with respect to the UK’s coronavirus/lockdown outlook and interest rate expectations.
Of these two, expect the UK’s coronavirus outlook to play the more influential role in the short term as the UK’s coronavirus vaccine rollout continues to show signs of stabilizing its breakout, which in turn, should allow the UK to ease lockdown restrictions in the months ahead. However, in the medium term, as the market’s focus shifts, monetary policy should dominate.
Regarding monetary policy, risks still remain; although, further easing appears unlikely at this point and markets looking for a hike in 2022.
Primary Drivers:
Bank of England – Monetary Policy in the UK remains highly influential to GBP’s fundamental outlook.
Expectations for policy tightening should prove GBP positive, while expectations for policy easing should prove GBP negative.
Brexit – The outlook for the UK’s exit from the EU in December remains a key influence for GBP as it poses significant risks to the UK’s economic outlook. With the UK set to leave at the end of the year and progress in negotiations between the UK and the EUR significantly hampered by the coronavirus outbreak, risks remain firmly tilted to the downside with a hard Brexit or even no deal Brexit remaining distinct possibilities.
GBP USD SHORTPrice has came to retest a previous level of resistance in the market. Its appears we have had a fake out above this resistance level before seeing a bearish engulfing candle close back below this level. This also lined up with rejections at a key fib level.
On lower time frames we will be looking for a break of the next level of resistance before considering shorts.
If things develop how we planned and we take a set up, we will be targeting around the 1.368 level.
Let me know what you guys think!
GBPUSD - More downside to go?!GBPUSD - Technical view: More downside to go?!
Technical View:
Support: 1.36830, 1.36050, 1.35310, 1.35000
Resistance:1.37930, 1.39515, 1.40455, 1.41570
Pattern: Wedge/Pennant - Broken to downside, Blue line measuring length.
Bears are in control if we get a break below support area of: 1.36570
Bulls are in control if we get a break above resistance area of: 1.38670 (200EMA Above)
Overall, we are currently in between ranges of: 1.36570 (S) - 1.37930 (R) break to either direction for further clarification perhaps a trade for next week to consider.
Keep in mind End of months flows & Keep an eye on Monthly closes.
Fundamental:
Overall, not much impact regarding calendar front apart from NFP on Friday next week. This week we had DXY rising and as majors decline! Finally broke out of the ranges we were in. We aren't seeing reflation trade this week. Market seeking a safe haven aspects.
- 3rd Wave in EU & USA - Rising calls for concerns
- Politics in US - Infrastructure spending 3trillions with be a high cost on cooperate tax rate heading higher
- April equities, usually best month of of the yr. (Seasonality)
- Commodity FX pairs - Weakening may continue as dollar strengthens
- UK Vaccination is going well. However Astra vaccine has been told to provide Europe further with the vaccinations
- First stages of the unlocking eases on Monday in UK - We've even got great weather for the week as well! 🌞
- NFP Next week - Great for scalp.
UK Reminder: Clocks go forward
Key tips: Don't try make your P&L on Friday - Trade what you see, not what you think!
Have a great weekend.
Trade Journal
(Just a trade idea, not a recommendation)
GBP - BULLISHThe focus for GBP is likely to be firmly fixed on the coronavirus outbreak now that the UK and EU have reached a Brexit agreement.
Of course, although the market's focus on Brexit is now likely to markedly fade, the UK and EU's relationship will still remain of importance for GBP. This has been highlighted in recent sessions by the rise in UK/EU tensions over coronavirus vaccine supplies and distribution.
Regarding the UK's coronavirus outlook, this remains encouraging with the UK's vaccine program having administered at least one dose to almost half of the UK population. Given the current success of its vaccine program, the UK is now in the early stages of lifting lockdown restrictions.
While the UK's coronavirus outlook is improving, we expect GBP to remain well supported, resulting in a bullish fundamental outlook.
GBPUSD - MORE DOWNSIDE?This is what I'm looking for next week. Dxy breaking key levels and pound in the bin as a result especially with EU blocking vaccine exports to UK.
Lots of confluences for price to react.
4hr Support
200 EMA
3rd Touch of channel
Clear new LL's LH's structure
61.8% fib
Target is the 800ema and 1.35 key level
A break above the channel see's buys up to 1.41 but given the key breakout on the weekly and daily timeframes could be a bad end to the month for cable
GBPUSD from 1.4 to 1.38 longs inboundwe have the cable dropping from 1.4 and headed to another critical buy zone at 1.38. denied multiple times to go lower in all of march so far we can assume longs can be loaded here in this zone with a tight stop loss and minuscule drawdown for a high probability trade
GBPUSD SETUP 1:5Generally, prices have been remaining disciplined and follow this bullish trend
Currently, prices are at the support level and are ranging between the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci level.
I'm expecting a breakout of this ranging pattern next week.
Hopefully, we may see prices reach previous highs which would secure us 5R.
GBPUSD | Range | How To Work ItLooking for buys within this range at the moment. Things are looking like what we spoke about in this week's market prep.
Ideal scenario
We attack buy-side liquidity, then we see a minor sell-off from UK close to Asia Open.
Right now the activity within this range looks bullish because we have a void above price and the price has been clearing the sell-side orders.
This means the buy-side should be cleared next.
Price is like Pacman, all it wants to do is eat orders.
I'm actually still bearish overall on this pair at the moment, depending on how this progresses things could change, (targeting 1.3800)
I wouldn't be surprised if we retraced all the way up to those two red zones, then see a heavy dump off,
Keep in mind GBP has some red folders on Thursday morning. Might be safer to work within this until then, then let the news do its thing.