Bearish Bat Pattern (DAILY)The Bat Pattern , is a precise harmonic pattern discovered by Scott Carney in 2001
The pattern incorporates the 88.6%XA retracement, as the defining element in the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ).
The B point retracement must be less than a 61.8%, preferably a 50% or 38.2% of the XA leg. The Bat utilizes a minimum 161.8%BC projection.
In addition, the AB=CD pattern within the Bat pattern is extended and usually requires a 127% AB=CD calculation. It is an incredibly accurate pattern and requires a smaller stop loss than most patterns.
Cable
Bearish Deep Crab (4H)“The Deep Crab pattern evolved from two patterns—invalid Bat patterns and a specific type of Crab pattern that Scott Carney developed as a further refinement of the basic structure. The Deep Crab is similar to the original Crab pattern, as it is a 5-point extension structure that utilizes exclusively a 161.8% XA projection for the defining level in the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ).The difference can be found at the B point which must be an 88.6% retracement of XA. In fact, the Deep Crab pattern usually possesses a B point that is beyond the 88.6% level but it does not violate the initial point (X).
GBPUSD H4 - Long Trade SetupGBPUSD H4 - The big bearish H4 candle we saw yesterday was off the back of the USD data. A big move and excuse for some USD correction, big relief rally needed, but unlikely a trend changer, I think we can expect continuations of DXY and dollar weakness going forward this week, cable is a good example of a break and retest to set new highs and continue the bullish trend, check out AUDUSD and EURUSD analysis (to follow), hopefully we may see these follow similar suit.
$GBPUSD - False Breakout - Going ShortAs it was nearing the highs, I put a small lot size on at 1.33104 for 10 pips to 1.33204 and got a short 10 pip scalp on the way up. Just because I knew it would break the highs to trigger the smart money stop runs and clear out tight stop losses people already had on sells. Now that it's above the Highs, I believe this is a false breakout as it's holding steady, letting people believe it will breakout, putting in their buy bids or waiting for it to retest the last high, or putting their stop losses just below the last high and already buying. I think Smart Money knows this and will go short to take out that liquidity that is building up at the current moment.
Secondly, On a 4-hour chart, this is historically a great support/resistance level between 1.332 and 1.336. It's also at about the 80% retracement level on a Daily Chart (which is where you see most reversals occur). Now, It could turn to support and buy, but that's where I turned to the COT (Commitment of Traders) indicator. The Commercial Banks, you know like JP Morgan, IMF, Deutsch Bank, etc. decided to add more shorts last week. Not a lot more, but enough to be noticeable, that the shorts would've only netted about 116 pips. I believe if they were going to be adding shorts they're looking for more than 116 pips that only took about a day to achieve. (See Chart)
On Barchart.com the COT report has commercial banks adding about 2,000 short positions as of 11/17. I believe they're looking for a much shorter move in the short term. But long term I do expect this resistance area to be broken within the next few months.
Additionally, I always like to compare GU to EU as they move similarly. And EU is definitely looking like a swing sell. The Pound is definitely much stronger than the Euro, which is why I think the Euro will sell off much more, but in the short term, I think we'll see the Pound sell with it. I'm not 100% it will reach 1.32000. So I'm looking for take profit zones to shave off some earnings on the way down. The first about 25 pips, the second about 65 pips, the third about 115 pips, and I always leave a trailer at the end to see if I have a miracle drop below that.
But then again, I could be completely wrong. This is just my analysis and I'm just some guy that likes to post his ideas.
Good Luck and Good Trading.
GBP/USD Is At a Difficult Position - Here is How to Trade it.After a fantastic trade set-up for GBP/USD on my previous idea where we saw that indeed the confluence between the support zone and the trendline caused the price to go up, we are now at a difficult situation.
If you were long already a great place to exit could be directly underneath the horizontal resistance. However, if you're not in the trade at the moment this is not a good moment to buy. Instead, I suggest waiting until the price reaches the resistance and go short there for a better risk-reward on your trade.
For the take profit position, you can see that I deviate from my normal suggestion. Instead of taking profit at the horizontal level, I decided to be more conservative here and suggest holding to the trendline only. The reason for this is that the ascending trendline indicates a bullish trend overall, and therefore I feel waiting until the horizontal support would be too optimistic and risky.
- Trading-Guru
CABLE LOOKING SET TO BREAK ITS MONTHLY BULLISH WEDGEGBPUSD has been on the downtrend since late 2007; this narrative could change starting from 2021 IF the pair can possibly breakout from its monthly bullish wedge . Good to see the pair violating 1.35025 level and any pullback from there (with a rejection) could indicate cable's readiness to commence an uptrend...
N.B
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
-ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
GBPUSD - PREDICTIONHere is my current trade explained based on an order block style strategy.
Higher timeframe bias with the wick rejections whilst finding an entry on the 1minute timeframe with a very small stop loss securing a great RR.
For a more normal intra day move, I've provided a safe stop loss. I'm only long should we breach this area
GBPUSD Bullish and Bearish Technical Outlook➖⚡➖ KEY TAKEAWAYS ➖⚡➖
✔️ The pair overall remains bullish on larger timeframes.
✔️ USD Continues to remain under pressure across the board. DXY near lowest level since Feb 2018
✔️ Stimulus is continuing to be delayed with vaccine just around the corner.
✔️ Brexit deal unlikely with Michel Barnier, the bloc’s chief negotiator, is to go into quarantine just as time to reach a deal runs out.
➖⚡➖ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ➖⚡➖
Bullish Outlook:
The 4 year Brexit deal that began back in 2016 and put the pound into a tailspin might finally close out with no deal. This might actually add some strength to Cable hence the well supported Bullish rally. With timing running out, European officials discussed whether they could implement an agreement by Dec. 31 but leave the formal ratification process to next year. That could put the bloc’s executive arm on collision course with the European Parliament and member states anxious to protect their rights to approve any accord.
Bearish Outlook:
In terms of technicals, I believe if we're unable to break above the 1.333 area, this might add some downside pressure. However we would need to see some recovery with the greenback which might remain supported near the 2018 lows.
Regards,
Michael Harding 😎 Chief Technical Strategist @ LEFTURN Inc.
GBPUSD 17 November The cable GU is a very violate market and is difficult for even institute traders.
UK are releasing there data tomorrow and indicators are showing low figures already so fundamentals are there.
I am bearish and it has a descending triangle on the 4hr chart
high on many oscillators if it hit tp1 then we could go to tp2 this week
this is just my speculation.
Please like and follow for more updates!
glad to those who kept with my last few trades great wins,
W/C 16.11.2020Still looking for weakness to take out blue levels - Then off to 91.50
Last week Thurs/Friday was so slow but I liked that we drifted down and respected the resistance above market. I will be looking for trades on fibre, aussie, cable and gold this week. I will also keep an eye on Loonie and kiwi to see if I can pick something up.
Follow for updates - will probably give some brief thoughts on videos this week too
GBPUSD PREDICTIONFor the first time in months I'm excited to trade GU this week!
So on the daily, we have a bullish pennant whereas on the 4hr we have a Head and Shoulders. What does that mean?
Simple, we don't take the sell, as that goes against our higher timeframe bias as we're still in an uptrend due to higher highs and lows.
We wait for that neckline to be breached and for the magic to happen in the orange circle, taking buys all the way up.
Magic?
3rd touch of trendline.
Golden 61,8% Fib area
Daily support.
3 great confluences for buys!
Sells if the pennant is broken.
$GBPUSD - Daily Bias Long - Pull Back to 1.30500 (SMT)SMT = Smart Money Theory.
A lot of this can be explained in my EU Idea since both move in concert together (usually) Just GBP happens to make bigger moves. So that's why this chart is on the hour chart and the EU is on the 15 min chart. GU is looking to break the next daily low. There's a far reach for the next daily low. Price will reach the GU daily order block which looks like a breaker on the one hour chart, before then moving higher. When moving high it will reach for the next daily highs which two are almost equal. And price loves to break equal highs.
(GU DAILY CHART)
Additionally it looks as if the dollar will rise clearing highs before, hitting a bearish order block before moving lower which the opposite will occur with GU.
(DOLLAR CHART)
I've tried to look at this from a selling perspective and the only thing that makes sense is the equal lows notated in the chart with the green trend line and that's around 1.29140. But I expected that to happen a long time ago and it still hasn't happened.
And as I always state, I COULD BE COMPLETELY WRONG. What do I know, I'm just some guy that likes to post his ideas.
Good Luck and Good Trading ;)
FX:GBPUSD
Wedge Pattern on Cable - Its looking good Ray.I can see a very strong 4 hour bullish backbone which I have looked at for a while now, with the previous highs also creating a resistance level, I'm looking for a bullish breakout. As the markets open tonight I'm expecting to see a little bit of bearish movement to retest the supportive trend line but then if rejected, ideally by a bullish candle, Ill be looking for a buy for sure! Can expect slot of volatility this week as Biden finally being announced as president - Lets Get It