CAC40 Vulnerable Amidst French TurmoilThesis: A confluence of internal political divisions, social unrest, and external economic pressures creates a compelling shorting opportunity in the CAC40 index.
Key Points:
Domestic Disarray: Recent elections have strengthened the far-right in France, weakening President Macron's centrist hold on power. This political fragmentation leads to policy gridlock and hampers economic stability.
Social Unrest: Macron's economic policies have alienated segments of the population, triggering protests and strikes that disrupt business activity.
Global Headwinds: Rising populism across Europe and the ongoing war in Ukraine create a volatile global economic environment. This uncertainty further strains the French economic outlook through inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions.
Bearish Outlook for CAC40: The aforementioned factors are likely to negatively impact the performance of companies listed on the CAC40. Investor sentiment is already shifting, as evidenced by recent hedge fund activity in European stocks.
CAC
EURO STOXX 50 Already at Target 1. On Way to over 11 thousand.Euro Stonks are raging higher
Euro zone growth has been terrible ever since the inception of the #EU and especially with the introduction of the common currency.
(common currency but uncommon debts)
Why are they going up now
Are they simply playing catch up
Is the ECB going to engage in FED like stimulus and PPT activities?
Currency devaluation
or actual economic goodtimes?
IDK
All I know all the European Bourses have major room to the upsides
#CAC
#DAX
#FTSE
and all the minor index's are positively positioned like I have been saying for quite some time now.
Did FRA40 find a local bottom? FRA40 - 24h expiry
Previous support located at 7350.
Previous resistance located at 7425.
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
Short term RSI has turned positive.
We look to Buy at 7325 (stop at 7275)
Our profit targets will be 7445 and 7450
Resistance: 7425 / 7450 / 7500
Support: 7350 / 7325 / 7300
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
CFD Update: FRA40 pushing at a new leg higher?Today's focus FRA40 CAC
Pattern – Support hold - continuation - HL
Possible targets – 7465 - 7600
Support – 7315 - 7360
Resistance – 7460 (ST)
Indicator support – CCi close to 0 cross – 38.2 fib area
Could we see a new leg higher on the FRA40? After Monday's holiday, price has opened lower on Tuesday, but there are a few bullish signs we are watching that could suggest a new push higher. Price formed an HL in the 38.2 fib area, support has been formed, and we see the support hold from a previous point of resistance. Price broke through the trendline, but we still need to see a new rally to confirm that.
A new lower that closes below support is worry and could invalidate the idea. Another factor is tomorrow's US CPI data. Depending on what’s released, this could impact US indices and, in turn, move European indices. The Core is expected to come in lower, with Y/Y flat at 5.0% and the M/M higher at 0.4%. The CPI data is due to be released at 8:30 am EST tomorrow.
Thanks for stopping by. Good trading, and have a great day.
CAC40 to breakdown?FRA40 - Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 7509 (stop at 7561)
Previous support located at 7500.
Previous resistance located at 7570.
Price action looks to be forming a top.
Short term momentum is bearish.
A move through 7500 will confirm the bearish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 7385 and 7365
Resistance: 7570 / 7600 / 7650
Support: 7500 / 7350 / 7300
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CAC to breakdown?FRA40 - 24h expiry -
Doji-style candle has been posted at the high.
Previous support is located at 7475.
Previous resistance is located at 7525.
Price action looks to be forming a top.
Short-term momentum is bearish.
A move through 7475 will confirm the bearish momentum.
We look to Sell a break of 7479 (stop at 7545)
Our profit targets will be 7325 and 7300
Resistance: 7525 / 7550 / 7600
Support: 7475 / 7400 / 7300
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Will FR40 gains be capped at current resistance?FRA40 -
Previous support located at 7000.
Previous resistance located at 7150.
Further downside is expected.
Rallies continue to attract sellers.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
A move through 7000 will confirm the bearish momentum.
24h expiry - We look to Sell at 7150 (stop at 7250)
Our profit targets will be 6900 and 6850
Resistance: 7150 / 7200 / 7250
Support: 7000 / 6975 / 6900
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
CAC 40 Futures ( FCE1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish continuationTitle: CAC 40 Futures ( FCE1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish continuation
Type: Bullish continuation
Resistance: 7381.5
Pivot: 6397.5
Support: 6797.5
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for FCE1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 7381.5, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the support at 6797.5, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CAC 40 Futures ( FCE1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish continuationTitle: CAC 40 Futures ( FCE1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish continuation
Type: Bullish continuation
Resistance: 7381.5
Pivot: 6397.5
Support: 6797.5
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for FCE1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 7381.5, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the support at 6797.5, where the 50% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CAC 40 Futures ( FCE1! ), D1 Potential for Bullish continuationTitle: CAC 40 Futures ( FCE1! ), D1 Potential for Bullish continuation
Type: Bullish continuation
Resistance: 7381.5
Pivot: 6397.5
Support: 6797.5
Preferred case: Looking at the D1 chart, my overall bias for FCE1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 7381.5, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the support at 6797.5, where the 50% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CAC 40 HELLO GUYS THIS MY IDEA 💡ABOUT CAC40 nice to see strong volume area....
Where is lot of contract accumulated..
I thing that the sellers from this area will be defend this SHORT position..
and when the price come back to this area, strong sellers will be push down the market again..
DOWNTREND + SUPPORT from the past + Strong volume area is my mainly reason for this short trade..
IF you like my work please like and follow Thanks
CAC40 NEW IDEA SHORT HELLO GUYS THIS MY IDEA 💡ABOUT CAC40 is nice to see strong volume area....
Where is lot of contract accumulated..
I thing that the Seller from this area will be defend this SHORT position..
and when the price come back to this area, strong SELLER will be push down the market again..
DOWNTREND + Support from the past + Strong volume area is my mainly reason for this short trade..
IF you like my work please like share and follow thanks
TURTLE TRADER 🐢
CAC 40 HELLO GUYS THIS MY IDEA 💡ABOUT CAC40 is nice to see strong volume area....
Where is lot of contract accumulated..
I thing that the buyers from this area will be defend this LONG position..
and when the price come back to this area, strong buyers will be push up the market again..
UP TREND + Resistance from the past + Strong volume area is my mainly reason for this long trade..
IF you like my work please like share and follow thanks
TURTLE TRADER 🐢
CAC looking bullish again to 6,539Ascending triangle formed on Daily CAC index.
The price has broken out of its downtrend since Aug 2022 showing it's in a bull market.
Also price has broken above the Ascending Triangle with a target of 6,539
CONCERNS:
Price is still below the 200MA which denotes a long term bear market.
Nevertheless, I'm bullish.
Regards
MATI Trader
Joe Gun2Head Trade - CAC at major support on the dailyTrade Idea: Buying CAC
Reasoning: CAC at major support on the daily
Entry Level: 5816
Take Profit Level: 6022
Stop Loss: 5725
Risk/Reward: 2.25:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Jamie Gun2Head Trade - Selling CACTrade Idea: Sell CAC
Reasoning: Medium term looking bearish - selling a break of a descending triangle
Entry Level: 5896
Take Profit Level: 5787
Stop Loss: 5949
Risk/Reward: 2.06:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
FR40 27th JUNE 2022Faced with challenges such as increasing material and energy costs, industrial companies in Europe continue to struggle with restricted revenues and operational challenges.
Market sentiment shifted to a more negative setting amid fears over surging inflation and slowing economic growth.
Jamie Trade Idea - Sell CACTrade Idea: Selling FRA40
Reasoning: Indices seeing a further sell off this week - 50% fib level?
Entry Level: 6314
Take Profit Level: 6024
Stop Loss: 6403
Risk/Reward: 3.26:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
FR40 27th APRIL 2022Emmanuel Macron was reelected for the second term on April 24th. The program he presented in mid-March argued that the retirement age would be raised to 65 and that the minimum solidarity income would be increased according to working hours.
In the coming weeks, the stability program will need to be sent to Brussels, and the budget trajectory for the next few years will be clear.
FR40 27th APRIL 2022
FR40 CAC40:FUNDAMENTAL NEWS+TECHNICAL VIEW | LONG 🔔France: Growth Slows as Repercussions of Russia-Ukraine Conflict Darken Inflation and Fiscal Outlooks
Rising spending in dealing with economic and geopolitical repercussions of Russia’s further incursion in the Ukraine additionally weigh on France’s already weakened fiscal outlook as recovery slows, exacerbating long-run credit challenges.
Our baseline economic forecast of France is for modest recovery with real growth of 3.6% for 2022 before 2.1% in 2023 (-0.3pps), as growth slows across the euro area.
Under a more stressed economic scenario, with higher and more long-lasting price pressures, output growth slows more significantly. However, we assume the energy price shock proves temporary, given futures of oil and gas prices indicating a downward price trend over a next 12 months.
One of the main knock-on effects is pressure on government to mitigate inflation and raise defence expenditure
One of the main adverse knock-on effects of Russia’s further invasion of the Ukraine for France is pressure the government at this stage faces in mitigating impact of rising inflation as well as to raise defence spending – just as, moreover, recovery from the Covid-19 crisis and associated revenue growth have started slowing.
The resulting excess deficit puts pressure on French public finances, which have already deteriorated under the context of the Covid-19 crisis, leaving the country with limited room to raise spending further. French general government debt reached around 115% of GDP in 2021, up from 98% of GDP in 2019.
On 16 March, the government announced a fresh package of measures aimed at provision of relief for households and firms hit by rising energy and other prices, including a discount of 15-euro cents a litre on petrol between April and July, energy-price related subsidies for firms and the strengthening of state-backed corporate liquidity facilities.
Including previously introduced budgetary support since last September, these measures amount to an aggregate cost of EUR 25bn (circa 1% of GDP). The government has as well started discussion around an increase of civil service salaries in response to rising costs.
France does have the advantage, as compared with Germany especially, of comparatively low reliance on oil and gas imports, given Electricité de France’s large park of nuclear power stations, helping ultimately contain France’s rate of inflation as compared with that of the rest of the euro area and expected to cap additional government compensation paid to households and businesses.
ATOS: Selling rallies as lower prices are expectedATOS - Intraday - We look to Sell at 38.73 (stop at 41.72)
The medium term bias remains bearish. Trading within a Bearish Channel formation. A move lower has resulted in prices breaking from the previous range and confirmed our bearish expectation. The formation has a measured move target of 30.61. Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 38.73, resulting in improved risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 30.60 and 28.00
Resistance: 38.74 / 41.13 / 47.16
Support: 36.40 / 36.00 / 34.62
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.