CAC
USA, Declinists Be Damned: Bet On AmericaInternational diversification is important, but it's risky.
Choose wisely.
Here's a hint:
India is debt
China is lender
Toxic Growth
Short signal possible, #CAC 40 Index Serious resistance In 5642, 3 serious attempts failed.
Stochastic Overbought.
Despite the rise of the Cac40, there are some signs (written above) of possible price correction.
Target: 5470
CAC 40: Very strong long term upside potential. 6700 on sight.CAC is quite strangely printing on the big 1W/1M time frames a similar trading pattern with the early - mid 90s. The MA50/200 sequence is identical within a Channel Up with two distinct peaks that broke the Channel momentarily before testing again the supporting trend line.
What stands out in particular is the +46.50% rebound from the first Higher Low on both cycles. What follows after is a giant Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, which gave rise to the second peak outside the Channel Up.
CAC40 is currently on that Inverse Head and Shoulder pattern attempting to price the Right Shoulder.
With such striking similarities it is only natural to assume that the current cycle will follow to a large extent the 90's cycle. Which means that after the Inverse Head and Shoulders is completed a +49.50% rise may follow (second peak outside the Channel) bringing the index close to 6,700. This is our long term target for CAC and the candle action times this by March 2020. After that the final Higher Low takes place which should pave the way for the new hyper aggressive cyclical bull market similar to the late 90s - 2000.
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What is the next target of #CAC 40 ?The trend of the CAC 40 in recent years is an uptrend.
in October 2011 the Cac has undergone a technical correction of 1200 points and then very quickly he returned to his upward trend, in October 2015 after a long rise the Cac has made technical correction of 1000 points pretty much like the first time and quickly took it back bullish trend, in October 2017 the Cac has made a technical correction of 800 points and at the moment it is in progress and normally should be redone as the last two completed times a rise is exceeded the last record price.
The Cac will seek a goal to reach and the point of the Double Top (6100) in 14% of the current price is probably possible
Buy Cac 40:
Entry Price: 5290
Take Profit: 6100
Stop Loss:5000
Testing Elliott Waves (for reference only)I am quite new to it. Let's see what happens with this first test
Potential longest bull market ever? Buy at 4190-4227 until 6780!This potential sounds crazy to some, but if I see the waves correctly, the "true" crisis wouldn't actually happen this year but maybe in 2-3 years! Are we simply back to 1937?
Something fishy: in terms of Elliott Waves, we should be buying In fact, if we are indeed in the longest bull market in history, then we may be only starting to create wave 5 if what I consider to be wave 3 is in fact ... wave 3. This is puzzling me, a lot.
SHORT: Monthly 50-EMA hit, among other thingsThere are a lots of alignments. I believe it is time to go short deeply for aggressive traders by going against the bullish "wave analysts" advocates. There is clearly an hierarchy here. People are starting to be bullish post "low vol" breakout. Don't go long the climax. Study what happened in previous decades before stock market crashes.
SHORT: Pullback to the weekly 200-EMA among other thingsThe CAC40 pulled back to the breakout level, completed different patterns and reached their targets. I know that some people studying waves believe we could still go up, but I think there should be quite a good sell-off during the next week. I could indeed be wrong, so we shall see. I've noticed that a few rarer or uncommon patterns appeared. Need to study hard on those. Elliott Waves are also more important than one may think.
A different outlook for French Equities....2019 prediction=> Here we have a different view for French Equities as those who are following our telegram will already know. The case can be made that we are in a very large IVth wave of the V wave pattern since post 2008 crisis.
=> From a technical perspective this looks like a very large correction and should not continue its decline further than 38.2% (4525.x)
=> Anything below here will start to show serious cracks in the uptrend and will suggest the top for French Equities (not expected) may already be set in stone.
=> Here for 2019 we will add exposure to the upside on the test of 4525 with tight stops at 4165.
=> Best of luck all those in French and other European Equities
Either a triple top or an inverted H&S: Crucial week1) Most indices retraced 50%, and we are at a very important turning point: if indices breakout cleanly there resistance (for instance SP500 at 2610.8, among other ones) then I would reassess my short bias as we would go back to potentially bullish territory (however, this would mean that the world and its economy become rosier --- no more issues!). The DAX could then retrace everything back up and reintegrate previous broken support levels.
2) In case it doesn't work out, then a triple top could be validated if a clean breakout occurs as well. We could retest all the leg down (80-100%). As volume is decreasing, I believe we had fake rallies and simply witnessed a great technical bounce (see monthly charts) while retracing a down run on US indices.
We shall see, everything has to be decided tonight and in the following days in my humble opinion.
High probability short at 4907Lots of reasons. But the markets could also be short-sold right away. However 4907 is extremely "attractive" so far.
SHORT: Multiple targets possible, but I expect one at 4429 firstVolume is also decreasing, the rally was probably mostly due to shorts covering and a big technical bounce (retracement + monthly diagonal support). We shall see.
Potentially a big short opportunity in combination with the US We shall see. We reached overextended levels in Europe and 50% retracement in the US.
Potentially a good long at 4630-4640 until invalidationLet's see if that bear market in some US markets are that strong.
CAC Buy IdeaCAC Buy Idea @ Monthly Demand Zone (4514.35 - 4301.13)
Buy Limit: 4561.29
Stop Loss: 4217.23
Take Profit: 5356.78
Risk Management = 0.01/$100
Recommended Leverage not to exceed 1:50
Recommended Risk Ratio 1:1.5 – 1:3
Close partially the contract once it reaches 50% of profit, Move stop loss over the entry level
Close partially the contract once it reaches 80% of the profit
