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Cad-chf

CADCHF is on bearish momentum! | 28 Dec 2021Prices are on bearish momentum. We see potential for a dip from our sell entry at 0.71884 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences to our Take Profit at 0.70983 in line with 100% Fibonacci extension. EMA 60, Ichimoku and RSI is at a level where dips occurred previously. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
CADCHF is on bearish momentum! | 27th Dec 2021Prices are on strong bearish momentum. We see the potential for a dip from our sell entry at 0.72226 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 127.2% Fibonacci extension towards our Take Profit at 0.70970 in line with 100% and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Prices are trading below our MA 100 and also MA cross 50 & 200 showing strong bearish continuation. Ichimoku is also supporting our bias with strong bearish momentum forecasts with red clouds. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
CADCHF bearish continuation | 21st Dec 2021Price is reacting in between the descending channel , signifying an overall bearish momentum. We can expect price to drop from the pivot level in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards 1st Support in line with 100% Fibonacci projection . Our bearish bias is further supported by the Ichimoku cloud where the price is holding below it. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
1
CADCHF bearish continuation | 21st Dec 2021Price is reacting in between the descending channel, signifying an overall bearish momentum. We can expect price to drop from the pivot level in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards 1st Support in line with 100% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is further supported by the Ichimoku cloud where the price is holding below it. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
CAD/CHF Update!CAD/CHF doing well! After breaking structure on the retest of a huge Wyckoff Accumulation schematic we were planning for price to come down and spike out the liquidity which was resting below the equal lows which has played out perfectly! We have now seen a nice bullish reaction and are looking for more bullishness to continue! I managed to get an entry on a lower time frame break of structure and retest from which the trade is current 6% up with another 14% as a minimum still to go! I will be looking for a correction on the lower time frames for another entry.
by PercentageOverPips
1
CADCHF potential for dip | 9th DecPrice is abiding by the descending trendline and near the sell entry price of 0.72736 which is also 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially dip to the take profit level of 0.71336 which is the daily graphical overlap and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported by technical indicators. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
CADCHF short-term bullish bounce | 30th NovPrice is abiding to the ascending trendline on the daily, signifying overall bullish momentum. We can expect price to bounce from the pivot level in line with horizontal graphical support and ascending trendline support towards the take profit level in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Our bullish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where the %K line is at the support level. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
1
Divergence appears and buying opportunity with CADCHFH4 time frame. Structure: Uptrend. Currently appearing a double bottom reversal pattern at 0.73200 and divergence signal from MACD. Key level is clear at 0.74200. Wait for the price to increase sharply, break the key level and have a retest signal, then you can find buying opportunities. The profit target is the 0.75600 price zone. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wish you all have a good trading day!
Long
by tradafx
CADCHF - Trend-Following Buy Setup!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. CADCHF is overall bullish and approaching daily support so we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes. on H4: CADCHF is forming a channel in orange but the upper trendline is not valid yet, so we are waiting for a new swing high to form around it to consider it our trigger swing. (projection in purple) Trigger => Waiting for that swing to form and then buy after a momentum candle close above it (gray zone) Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, CADCHF would be overall bearish can still trade lower inside the blue support before going up. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Long
by TheSignalyst
3
CADCHF bullish continuation | 19th Nov 2021Price is abiding to the ascending trendline support on the daily, signifying bullish momentum. We can expect price to bounce from the pivot level in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and ascending trendline support towards 1st Resistance in line 78.6% Fibonacci projection and previous swing high. Our bullish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where the %K line is abiding to the ascending trendline support. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
CADCHF potential for bounce! | 11 Nov 2021Price is on a bullish momentum. We see a potential buy entry at 0.73382 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 0.7366 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension . Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
1
CADCHF potential for bounce! | 11 Nov 2021Price is on a bullish momentum. We see a potential buy entry at 0.73382 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 0.7366 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
CAD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSCAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BoC At their Oct meeting the BoC surprised to put an early end to QE purchases and updated forward guidance to suggest an earlier lift off in rates by explaining that project economic slack to be absorbed by the middle quarters of 2022. The initial reaction was bullish as one would expect but the biggest risk to further upside for the CAD from here is the fact that a lot of these positives that was confirmed by the BoC has already been reflected in both the CAD and rates markets over the past few weeks. The CAD has seen a similar run to the upside back in 1Q21 with the BoC’s hawkish tilt, and similarly to that we feel current prices for rates and the CAD already reflect a great deal of the positives. Thus, even though the med-term outlook remains tilted to the upside for the CAD, there is the risk of seeing some unwind of the recent upside and is something to be mindful of when making any med-term allocations to the upside in the CAD. 2. Commodity-linked currency with dependency on Oil exports Oil massive post-covid recovery continues on the back of three drivers: supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts); improving global economic outlook and improving oil demand outlook, even though slightly pushed back by Delta concerns; rising inflation expectations. Even though further gains for Oil will arguably prove to be an uphill battle, the bias remains higher in the med-term as long as current supportive factors and drivers remains intact. There will of course be short-term ebbs and flows which could affect the CAD from an intermarket point of view, but as long as the med-term view for Oil remains higher it should be supportive for Petro-currencies like the CAD. OPEC seems content to stick to their plan to bring oil supply back gradually, by this past week deciding to bring the expected 400K barrels of supply online from next month. The one risk factor to watch for Oil is the pressure being placed on OPEC from the US administration to pump more oil in order to cool rising oil prices. Until now, OPEC have not been moved to cave to the US pressure, but there is the risk that Saudi Arabia buckles under the pressure and opts to push for higher production in the months ahead. Similarly, we also need to keep an eye on the US in the case they release some of their strategic reserves which should be a short-term headwind for Oil . 3. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the CAD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the CAD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +842 with a net non-commercial position of +4162. With a lot of positives in the price for the CAD and the front-end yields, it is encouraging to see that positioning isn’t stretched large specs or leveraged funds. That suggests that further upside could be possible if short-term sentiment for oil and risk assets remain favourable. However, since prices do look stretched, and since JPY positioning is very net-short, any sudden risk off bouts could see some decent mean reversion opportunities in CADJPY to the downside, especially if oil prices also come under pressure as falling oil prices will be a double positive for the JPY. CHF FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF with Swiss economic data or SNB policy meetings rarely being very market moving. Although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall dovish disposition and preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone remains constructive in the med-term due to the global vaccine roll out and the massive amount of monetary policy and fiscal support from governments. The Delta variant and its impact on growth expectations is of course a sobering reminder that risks remain. Thus, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook remains which could prove supportive for the safe havens like the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop. However, on balance the overall risk outlook is still positive in the med-term and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish in the med-term . 2. Idiosyncratic drivers for the CHF Despite the overall fundamental bearish bias, the CHF continues to remain surprisingly strong in the past few weeks. This divergence from the fundamental outlook does not make much sense, but this is a friendly reminder that the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests. Recent research from the team has revealed an interesting correlation between the CHF and simultaneous price action in both Gold and the USD, but it has not been enough to explain the current divergence between the CHF and its fundamental outlook. Apart from that, SNB intervention is of course always a downside risk to keep in mind, especially with the important EURCHF exchange rate drifting into an area between 1.07 and 1. 05 which have in previous years sparked additional intervention from the bank. Apart from that, ING investment bank has argued that recent CHF strength could also be due to the lower inflation in Switzerland compared to the EU which meant that the real trade-weighted CHF has been trading too cheap relative to the spot price. The bank also expanded that the ECB’s bond buying programs has meant that their balance sheet is expanding more rapidly compared to that of the SNB, which could have been reasons why the SNB did not see need for ramping up FX interventions as much as we would usually expect when EURCHF drift lower into key ‘intervention territory’. The bottom line is that there are often plenty of idiosyncratic drivers which might or might not impact the CHF and makes short-term price fluctuations a mixed bag for the most part. 3. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -1269 with a net non-commercial position of -20648. Positioning has again decreased for the CHF with the latest CFTC data. Even though we expect the currency to continue weakening in the med-term , any drastic escalation in risk off tones could continue to provide support for the safe-haven currency in the short-term. With the EURCHF pair treading water between 1.07-1. 05 the chance of intervention is rising, and at the current price levels the EURCHF does look attractive for some mean reversion value longs. But, if you choose to trade the CHF, be ready for some unexpected price action from time to time.
by thunderpips
1
CADCHF facing bearish pressure, potential for more downside! Price is below the 1st resistance at 0.73787 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. Price could potentially bearish from 1st resistance at 0.73787 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension to 1st support at 0.73335 in line with Horizontal swing low and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish bias is further supported by how Price is holding below the EMA and the Ichimoku cloud and RSI is abiding to a descending trendline resistance. Otherwise price may continue to bullish to 2nd resistance at 0.74064 in line with Horizontal swing high and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Short
by TradeGATEHub
CADCHF bearish momentum | 2nd Nov 2021Price is currently reacting in between a descending trendline and an ascending trendline, forming a potential triangle. We can expect price to drop from the pivot level in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards the take profit level in line with 1001% Fibonacci projection and ascending trendline support. Our bearish bias is further supported by the Ichimoku cloud indicator where price is holding below it indicating a strong resistance from the indicator. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
CADCHF bearish momentum | 2nd Nov 2021Price is currently reacting in between a descending trendline and an ascending trendline, forming a potential triangle. We can expect price to drop from the pivot level in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards the take profit level in line with 1001% Fibonacci projection and ascending trendline support. Our bearish bias is further supported by the Ichimoku cloud indicator where price is holding below it indicating a strong resistance from the indicator. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
CAD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSCAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BoC At their Oct meeting the bank surprised markets by decided to put an early end to their QE purchases and also updated their forward guidance to suggest and earlier lift off in rates by explaining that they now see economic slack being absorbed by die middle quarters of 2022. The initial reaction was very bullish as one would expect and saw the CAD appreciate across the board. We think the biggest risk to further upside for the CAD from here is the fact that a lot of these positives that was confirmed by the BoC has already been reflected in both the CAD and rates markets over the past few weeks. The CAD has seen a similar run to the upside back in 1Q21 with the BoC’s hawkish tilt, and similarly to that we feel current prices for rates and the CAD already reflect a great deal of the positives. Thus, even though the med-term outlook remains tilted to the upside for the CAD, there is the risk of seeing some unwind of the recent upside and is something to be mindful of when making any med-term allocations to the upside in the CAD. 2. Commodity-linked currency with dependency on Oil exports Oil staged a massive recovery after hitting rock bottom in 2020 and the move higher over recent months has been driven by supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts); improving global economic outlook and improving oil demand outlook, even though slightly pushed back by Delta concerns; rising inflation expectations. Even though further gains for Oil will arguably prove to be an uphill battle, the bias remains higher in the med-term as long as current supportive factors and drivers remains intact. There will of course be short-term ebbs and flows which could affect the CAD from an intermarket point of view, but as long as the med-term view for Oil remains higher it should be supportive for Petro-currencies like the CAD. The recent energy crisis affecting large parts of the globe has placed upside pressure in Oil , Gas and Coal and has support the CAD. A possible risk for Oil prices (and by connection the CAD) is any attempts by the US or OPEC+ to calm down prices. On the US side they could opt to release more of their reserves and on OPEC’s side they could announce additional increases in production output. This week we have another OPEC+ meeting so keeping that on the radar for the CAD will be important in the week ahead. 3. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the CAD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the CAD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +14244 with a net non-commercial position of +3320. With a lot of positives in the price for the CAD and the front-end yields, it is however encouraging to see that positioning isn’t stretched for either large specs or leveraged funds, and suggest that further upside could of course be possible if short-term sentiment for oil and risk assets remain favourable. CHF FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF with Swiss economic data or SNB policy meetings rarely being very market moving. Although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall dovish disposition and preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone improved considerably after the pandemic as a result of the global vaccine roll out and the unprecedented amount of monetary policy accommodation and fiscal support from governments. The Delta variant and subsequent impact on growth expectations is of course a sobering reminder that risks remain. Thus, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook remains which could prove supportive for the safe havens like the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop. However, on balance the overall risk outlook is still positive in the med-term and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish in the med-term. 2. Idiosyncratic drivers for the CHF Despite the negative drivers, the CHF saw some surprisingly strength from June. This divergence from the fundamental outlook didn’t make much sense, but the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests. Recent research from the team has revealed an interesting correlation between the CHF and simultaneous price action in both Gold and the USD which could explain some of the recent price action. We also need to be careful of the possibility of SNB FX intervention. Apart from that, ING investment bank has recently argued that recent CHF strength could be due to the lower inflation in Switzerland compared to the EU which meant that the real trade-weighted CHF has been trading too cheap. They also expanded that the ECB’s bond buying has meant that their balance sheet is expanding more rapidly compared to that of the SNB, which could have been reasons why the SNB did not see the need for any meaningful FX intervention lately. The bottom line is that there are often plenty of idiosyncratic drivers which might or might not impact the CHF and makes short-term price fluctuations a mixed bag for the most part. 3. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -1795 with a net non-commercial position of -19379. Positioning has decreased for the CHF with the latest CFTC data, but it’s worth noting that the majority of the CHF’s upside in the recent week took place after Tuesday so will mostly likely only show up in the data for this coming Friday. Even though we expect the currency to continue weakening in the med-term, any drastic escalation in risk off tones could continue to provide support for the safe-haven currency in the short-term and is always something to keep in mind. With the EURCHF pair treading water around the 1.06, UBS believes the pair already entered SNB intervention territory back at 1.07 and looks to fade any further downside in the pair as opportunities to lean into longs. If you choose to trade the CHF, be ready for some unexpected price action from time to time (see driver 2 above).
by thunderpips
9