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Cad-chf

CADCHF short term bearish momentum | 21st Oct 2021Price reacting in a potential triangle pattern. We can expect price to drop from the pivot level in line with the 88% Fibonacci retracement towards the take profit level in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection . Our short-term bearish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where the %K line is abiding to the descending trendline resistance. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
CADCHF is at a Pivot, potential for dip! | 20th Oct 2021CADCHF is consolidating in a bullish channel . We spot a potential entry at 0.74778 in line with 23.6% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 100% Fibonacci extension . Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
CADCHF is at a Pivot, potential for dip! | 20th Oct 2021CADCHF is consolidating in a bullish channel. We spot a potential entry at 0.74778 in line with 23.6% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 100% Fibonacci extension. Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
CADCHF short-term bearish movement | 19th Oct 2021 Price is seen to be in between the descending trendline resistance and ascending trendline support, potentiall forming a triangle pattern . We can expect price to drop from the pivot level in line with the 88% Fibonacci retracement towards the take profit level in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection . Our short-term bearish bias is further supported by stochastic indicator where the %K line is approaching the resistance level . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
1
CADCHF potential short term bearish momentum | 15th Oct 2021Price is seen to be in between the descending trendline resistance and ascending trendline support, potentiall forming a triangle pattern. We can expect price to drop from the pivot level in line with the 88% Fibonacci retracement towards the take profit level in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection. Our short-term bearish bias is further supported by stochastic indicator where the %K line is approaching the resistance level. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
CADCHF potential short term bearish momentum | 13th Oct 2021Price is at the descending trendline resistance, hence, we can expect price to drop from the pivot level in line with the 127.2% Fibonacci Projection and push all the way down to the take profit level in line with the ascending trendline support, 50% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci Projection . Our short-term bearish bias is further supported by the stochastic %K line where it is approaching the resistance level awaiting for a drop. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
CADCHF potential short term bearish momentum | 13th Oct 2021Price is at the descending trendline resistance, hence, we can expect price to drop from the pivot level in line with the 127.2% Fibonacci Projection and push all the way down to the take profit level in line with the ascending trendline support, 50% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci Projection . Our short-term bearish bias is further supported by the stochastic %K line where it is approaching the resistance level awaiting for a drop. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
CADCHF short term bearish momentum | 11th Oct 2021Price is reacting in a potential triangle formation and price is approaching the descending trendline resistance. We can expect price to drop from the pivot level in line descending trendline resistance and 127.2% Fibonacci retracement towards the take profit level in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and 50% Fibonacci retracement . Oour short-term bearish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where the %D line is approaching the resistance level awaiting for a drop. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
CAD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSCAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BoC At their September meeting the BoC delivered on market expectations by not providing any new information. The bank acknowledged the recent hit to growth has been bigger than expected, but also explained that they deem the hit to be temporary and still expect solid growth this year. They also reiterated that even though inflation is currently high and expected to climb, they deem current price pressures as being mostly transitory. The meeting did nothing to change the market’s expectations that the bank will go ahead to announce another round of tapering of C$1 billion at their October meeting, especially after the recent jobs report painted a picture of a growing and recovering labour market, albeit at a slightly slower pace compared to June and July. 2. Commodity-linked currency with dependency on Oil exports Oil staged a massive recovery after hitting rock bottom in 2020. The move higher over the past few months has been driven by supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts); improving global economic outlook and improving oil demand outlook, even though slightly pushed back by Delta concerns (vaccines and monetary and fiscal stimulus induced recoveries); rising inflation expectations. Even though further gains for Oil will arguably prove to be an uphill battle from here, the bias remains positive in the med-term as long as current supportive factors and drivers remains intact. We will of course have short-term ebbs and flows as we’ve seen in recent weeks which could affect the CAD from an intermarket point of view, but as long as the med-term view for Oil remains higher that should be supportive for Petro-currencies like the CAD. The recent energy shortages facing large parts of the globe is a factor that has placed upside pressure in Oil , Gas and Coal prices and is a theme to keep track of for the CAD, both to the up and to the downside in the event that shortages start to ease. This past week’s rise in Oil prices saw solid support for the CAD and will remain a key short-term intermarket consideration for the oil-dependent economy and currency. 3. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the CAD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the CAD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -6631 with a net non-commercial position of -26866. With the solid beat in the September jobs report, we finally saw markets trading the CAD back in line with its fundamental bullish bias, with USDCAD finally gaining enough momentum to push below key trend and psychological support levels. In the week ahead, with a very light economic data schedule coming up, the main focus and driver will fall on energy prices as well as overall risk sentiment. CHF FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF with Swiss economic data or SNB policy meetings rarely being very market moving. Although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall dovish disposition and preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone improved considerably after the pandemic as a result of the global vaccine roll out and the unprecedented amount of monetary policy accommodation and fiscal support from governments. The Delta variant and subsequent impact on growth expectations is of course a sobering reminder that risks remain. Thus, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook remains which could prove supportive for the safe havens like the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop. However, on balance the overall risk outlook is still positive in the med-term and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish in the med-term . 2. Idiosyncratic drivers for the CHF Despite the negative drivers, the CHF saw some surprisingly strength from June. This divergence from the fundamental outlook didn’t make much sense, but the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests. Recent research from the team has revealed an interesting correlation between the CHF and simultaneous price action in both Gold and the USD which could explain some of the recent price action. We also need to be careful of the possibility of SNB FX intervention. Apart from that, ING investment bank has recently argued that recent CHF strength could be due to the lower inflation in Switzerland compared to the EU which meant that the real trade-weighted CHF has been trading too cheap. They also expanded that the ECB’s bond buying has meant that their balance sheet is expanding more rapidly compared to that of the SNB, which could have been reasons why the SNB did not see the need for any meaningful FX intervention lately. The bottom line is that there are often plenty of idiosyncratic drivers which might or might not impact the CHF and makes short-term price fluctuations a mixed bag for the most part. 3. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -4092 with a net non-commercial position of -15679. The CHF positioning continued to unwind some of its recent surprising strength over the past few weeks. The CHF is back inside net-short territory as one would expect from a currency with an overall med-term bearish outlook. Even though we expect the currency to continue weakening in the med-term , any drastic escalation in risk off tones could continue to provide support for the safe-haven currency in the short-term and is always something to keep in mind.
by thunderpips
1
Wait for the opportunity to sell with CADCHFH1 time frame. Structure: Uptrend. The price moves in an ascending channel with a wide range. There is now a divergence signal and the key level is at 0.73000. Wait for the confirmation of the downtrend and the appearance of a sell signal, then you can sell with CADCHF. The profit target is the support line of the price channel, price zone 0.72400. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wish you all have a good trading day!
Long
by tradafx
CAD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSCAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BoC At their September meeting the BoC delivered on market expectations by not providing any new information. The bank acknowledged the recent hit to growth has been bigger than expected, but also explained that they deem the hit to be temporary and still expect solid growth this year. They also reiterated that even though inflation is currently high and expected to climb, they deem current price pressures as being mostly transitory. The meeting did nothing to change the market’s expectations that the bank will go ahead to announce another round of tapering of C$1 billion at their October meeting, especially after the recent jobs report painted a picture of a growing and recovering labour market, albeit at a slightly slower pace compared to June and July. 2. Commodity-linked currency with dependency on Oil exports Oil staged a massive recovery after hitting rock bottom in 2020. The move higher over the past few months has been driven by supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts); improving global economic outlook and improving oil demand outlook, even though slightly pushed back by Delta concerns (vaccines and monetary and fiscal stimulus induced recoveries); rising inflation expectations. Even though further gains for Oil will arguably prove to be an uphill battle from here, the bias remains positive in the med-term as long as current supportive factors and drivers remains intact. We will of course have short-term ebbs and flows as we’ve seen in recent weeks which could affect the CAD from an intermarket point of view, but as long as the med-term view for Oil remains higher that should be supportive for Petro-currencies like the CAD. The recent energy shortages facing large parts of the globe is a factor that has placed upside pressure in Oil , Gas and Coal prices and is a theme to keep track of for the CAD, both to the up and to the downside in the event that shortages start to ease. Keep in mind that there were sources out this week which stated that OPEC+ is contemplating bringing more supply back online at this week’s upcoming meeting, so that will be a key risk driver to watch for the Petro-currencies in the week ahead. 3. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the CAD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the AUD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the AUD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +7642 with a net non-commercial position of -20235. Even though market expectations for Oct tapering is intact, markets remain reluctant to trade the CAD back in line with its fundamental bias. The USDCAD for example has seen some decent one-side swings over the past few weeks but compared to July prices we are close to flat. Even though the bias for CAD remains unchanged, the reluctance from the market means we are happy to stay a bit more patient with the currency right now. CHF FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF with Swiss economic data or SNB policy meetings rarely being very market moving. Although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall dovish disposition and preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone improved considerably after the pandemic as a result of the global vaccine roll out and the unprecedented amount of monetary policy accommodation and fiscal support from governments. The Delta variant and subsequent impact on growth expectations is of course a sobering reminder that risks remain. Thus, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook remains which could prove supportive for the safe havens like the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop. However, on balance the overall risk outlook is still positive in the med-term and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish in the med-term. 2. Idiosyncratic drivers for the CHF Despite the negative drivers, the CHF saw some surprisingly strength from June. This divergence from the fundamental outlook didn’t make much sense, but the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests. Recent research from the team has revealed an interesting correlation between the CHF and simultaneous price action in both Gold and the USD which could explain some of the recent price action. We also need to be careful of the possibility of SNB FX intervention. Apart from that, ING investment bank has recently argued that recent CHF strength could be due to the lower inflation in Switzerland compared to the EU which meant that the real trade-weighted CHF has been trading too cheap. They also expanded that the ECB’s bond buying has meant that their balance sheet is expanding more rapidly compared to that of the SNB, which could have been reasons why the SNB did not see the need for any meaningful FX intervention lately. The bottom line is that there are often plenty of idiosyncratic drivers which might or might not impact the CHF and makes short-term price fluctuations a mixed bag for the most part. 3. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -2370 with a net non-commercial position of -11587. The CHF positioning continued to unwind some of its recent surprising strength over the past few weeks. The CHF is back inside net-short territory as one would expect from a currency with an overall med-term bearish outlook. Even though we expect the currency to continue weakening in the med-term, any drastic escalation in risk off tones could continue to provide support for the safe-haven currency in the short-term.
by thunderpips
CAD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSCAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BoC At their September meeting the BoC delivered on market expectations by not providing any new information. The bank acknowledged the recent hit to growth has been bigger than expected, but also explained that they deem the hit to be temporary and still expect solid growth this year. They also reiterated that even though inflation is currently high and expected to climb, they deem current price pressures as being mostly transitory. The meeting did nothing to change the market’s expectations that the bank will go ahead to announce another round of tapering of C$1 billion at their October meeting, especially after the recent jobs report painted a picture of a growing and recovering labour market, albeit at a slightly slower pace compared to June and July. 2. Commodity-linked currency with dependency on Oil exports Oil staged a massive recovery after hitting rock bottom in 2020. The move higher over the past few months has been driven by supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts); improving global economic outlook and improving oil demand outlook, even though slightly pushed back by Delta concerns (vaccines and monetary and fiscal stimulus induced recoveries); rising inflation expectations. Even though further gains for Oil will arguably prove to be an uphill battle from here, the bias remains positive in the med-term as long as current supportive factors and drivers remains intact. We will of course have short-term ebbs and flows as we’ve seen in recent weeks which could affect the CAD from an intermarket point of view, but as long as the med-term view for Oil remains higher that should be supportive for Petro-currencies like the CAD. 3. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the CAD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the AUD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the AUD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -18594 with a net non-commercial position of -27877. Quite a big change, and no doubt driven by the risk off jitters we saw in risk assets, but the CAD clearly carried the brunt compared to the AUD & NZD. Even though market expectations for Oct tapering is intact, markets remain reluctant to trade the CAD back in line with its fundamental bias. The USDCAD has seen some decently largely one-side swings but compared to July prices we are close to flat. Even though the bias remains unchanged, the reluctance from the market means we are happy to stay a bit more patient with the CAD right now. CHF FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF with Swiss economic data or SNB policy meetings rarely being very market moving. Although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall dovish disposition and preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone improved considerably after the pandemic as a result of the global vaccine roll out and the unprecedented amount of monetary policy accommodation and fiscal support from governments. The Delta variant and subsequent impact on growth expectations is of course a sobering reminder that risks remain. Thus, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook remains which could prove supportive for the safe havens like the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop. However, on balance the overall risk outlook is still positive in the med-term and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish in the med-term. 2. Idiosyncratic drivers for the CHF Despite the negative drivers, the CHF saw some surprisingly strength from June. This divergence from the fundamental outlook didn’t make much sense, but the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests. Recent research from the team has revealed an interesting correlation between the CHF and simultaneous price action in both Gold and the USD which could explain some of the recent price action. We also need to be careful of the possibility of SNB FX intervention. Apart from that, ING investment bank has recently argued that recent CHF strength could be due to the lower inflation in Switzerland compared to the EU which meant that the real trade-weighted CHF has been trading too cheap. They also expanded that the ECB’s bond buying has meant that their balance sheet is expanding more rapidly compared to that of the SNB, which could have been reasons why the SNB did not see the need for any meaningful FX intervention lately. The bottom line is that there are often plenty of idiosyncratic drivers which might or might not impact the CHF and makes short-term price fluctuations a mixed bag for the most part. 3. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -3339 with a net non-commercial position of -9217. The CHF positioning continued to unwind some of its recent surprising strength over the past few weeks. The CHF is back inside net-short territory as one would expect from a currency with an overall med-term bearish outlook. Even though we expect the currency to continue weakening in the med-term, any drastic escalation in risk off tones could continue to provide support for the safe-haven currency in the short-term.
by thunderpips
CAD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSCAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BoC At their September meeting the BoC delivered on market expectations by not providing any new information. The bank acknowledged the recent hit to growth has been bigger than expected, but also explained that they deem the hit to be temporary and still expect solid growth this year. They also reiterated that even though inflation is currently high and expected to climb, they deem current price pressures as being mostly transitory. The meeting did nothing to change the market’s expectations that the bank will go ahead to announce another round of tapering of C$1 billion at their October meeting, especially after the recent jobs report painted a picture of a growing and recovering labour market, albeit at a slightly slower pace compared to June and July. 2. Commodity-linked currency with dependency on Oil exports Oil staged a massive recovery after hitting rock bottom in 2020. The move higher over the past few months has been driven by supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts); improving global economic outlook and improving oil demand outlook, even though slightly pushed back by Delta concerns (vaccines and monetary and fiscal stimulus induced recoveries); rising inflation expectations. Even though further gains for Oil will arguably prove to be an uphill battle from here, the bias remains positive in the med-term as long as current supportive factors and drivers remains intact. We will of course have short-term ebbs and flows as we’ve seen in recent weeks which could affect the CAD from an intermarket point of view, but as long as the med-term view for Oil remains higher that should be supportive for Petro-currencies like the CAD. 3. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, CAD has benefited from the market's improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safehavens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the CAD in the med-term , but the recent short-term jitters and risk off flows once again showed us why risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver for the currency. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data (updated until 14 Sep) showed a positioning change of -3273 with a net non-commercial position of -9283. After some substantial unwinding of oversubscribed net-long positioning over the past couple of months, we’ve now seen CAD positioning move into netshort territory, and since the med-term bias is still bullish it means there is room left to run to the upside in line with the overall bullish fundamentals. Even though market expectations for Oct tapering is intact, markets have been reluctant to trade the CAD back in line with its fundamental bias. The USDCAD as a good example have of course seen large swings in the past two months, but despite them the pair remains largely unchanged from where we were trading two months ago. Patience might be required with this one until we get more clarity from incoming US data as well as expected tapering actions from the Fed. CHF FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF. Swiss economic data rarely proves market moving; and although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall bearish tone and a preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone has improving considerably from just a year ago because of the global vaccine roll out and the unprecedented amount of monetary policy accommodation and fiscal support from governments. The Delta variant and subsequent impact on growth expectations is of course a sobering reminder that risks remain. Thus, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook remains which could prove supportive for the safe havens like the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop. However, on balance the overall risk outlook is continuing to improve and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish in the med-term . 2. Idiosyncratic drivers for the CHF Despite the negative drivers, the CHF has remained surprisingly strong over the past couple of weeks. This divergence from the fundamental outlook doesn’t make much sense, but the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests. Recent research from the team has revealed an interesting correlation between the CHF simultaneous price moves in Gold and the USD which could explain some of the recent price action. We also need to be careful of the possibility of SNB FX intervention. Apart from that, ING investment bank has recently argued that recent CHF strength could be due to the lower inflation in Switzerland compared to the EU which meant that the real trade-weighted CHF has been trading too cheap. They also expanded that the ECB’s bond buying has meant that their balance sheet is expanding more rapidly compared to that of the SNB, which could have been reasons why the SNB did not see the need for any meaningful FX intervention lately. The bottom line is that there are often plenty of idiosyncratic drivers which might or might not impact the CHF and makes short-term price fluctuations a mixed bag for the most part. 3. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data (updated until 14 Sep) showed a positioning change of -6098 with a net non-commercial position of -5878. The CHF positioning continued to unwind some of its recent surprising strength over the past few weeks. The CHF has now moved back into net-short territory as one would expect from a currency with an overall med-term bearish outlook. Even though we expect the currency to continue weakening in the med-term , any drastic escalation in risk off tones could continue to provide support for the safe-haven currency in the short-term.
by thunderpips
5
CAD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSCAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BoC At their September meeting the BoC delivered on market expectations by not providing any new information. The bank acknowledged the recent hit to growth has been bigger than expected, but also explained that they deem the hit to be temporary and still expect solid growth this year. They also reiterated that even though inflation is currently high and expected to climb, they deem current price pressures as being mostly transitory. The meeting did nothing to change the market’s expectations that the bank will go ahead to announce another round of tapering of C$1 billion at their October meeting, especially after the recent jobs report painted a picture of a growing and recovering labour market, albeit at a slightly slower pace compared to June and July. 2. Commodity-linked currency with dependency on Oil exports Oil staged a massive recovery after hitting rock bottom in 2020. The move higher over the past few months has been driven by supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts); improving global economic outlook and improving oil demand outlook, even though slightly pushed back by Delta concerns (vaccines and monetary and fiscal stimulus induced recoveries); rising inflation expectations. Even though further gains for Oil will arguably prove to be an uphill battle from here, the bias remains positive in the med-term as long as current supportive factors and drivers remains intact. We will of course have short-term ebbs and flows as we’ve seen in recent weeks which could affect the CAD from an intermarket point of view, but as long as the med-term view for Oil remains higher that should be supportive for Petro-currencies like the CAD. 3. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, CAD has benefited from the market's improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safehavens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the CAD in the med-term , but the recent short-term jitters and risk off flows once again showed us why risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver for the currency. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data (updated until 14 Sep) showed a positioning change of -3273 with a net non-commercial position of -9283. After some substantial unwinding of oversubscribed net-long positioning over the past couple of months, we’ve now seen CAD positioning move into netshort territory, and since the med-term bias is still bullish it means there is room left to run to the upside in line with the overall bullish fundamentals. Even though market expectations for Oct tapering is intact, markets have been reluctant to trade the CAD back in line with its fundamental bias. The USDCAD as a good example have of course seen large swings in the past two months, but despite them the pair remains largely unchanged from where we were trading two months ago. Patience might be required with this one until we get more clarity from incoming US data as well as expected tapering actions from the Fed. CHF FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF. Swiss economic data rarely proves market moving; and although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall bearish tone and a preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone has improving considerably from just a year ago because of the global vaccine roll out and the unprecedented amount of monetary policy accommodation and fiscal support from governments. The Delta variant and subsequent impact on growth expectations is of course a sobering reminder that risks remain. Thus, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook remains which could prove supportive for the safe havens like the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop. However, on balance the overall risk outlook is continuing to improve and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish in the med-term . 2. Idiosyncratic drivers for the CHF Despite the negative drivers, the CHF has remained surprisingly strong over the past couple of weeks. This divergence from the fundamental outlook doesn’t make much sense, but the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests. Recent research from the team has revealed an interesting correlation between the CHF simultaneous price moves in Gold and the USD which could explain some of the recent price action. We also need to be careful of the possibility of SNB FX intervention. Apart from that, ING investment bank has recently argued that recent CHF strength could be due to the lower inflation in Switzerland compared to the EU which meant that the real trade-weighted CHF has been trading too cheap. They also expanded that the ECB’s bond buying has meant that their balance sheet is expanding more rapidly compared to that of the SNB, which could have been reasons why the SNB did not see the need for any meaningful FX intervention lately. The bottom line is that there are often plenty of idiosyncratic drivers which might or might not impact the CHF and makes short-term price fluctuations a mixed bag for the most part. 3. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data (updated until 14 Sep) showed a positioning change of -6098 with a net non-commercial position of -5878. The CHF positioning continued to unwind some of its recent surprising strength over the past few weeks. The CHF has now moved back into net-short territory as one would expect from a currency with an overall med-term bearish outlook. Even though we expect the currency to continue weakening in the med-term , any drastic escalation in risk off tones could continue to provide support for the safe-haven currency in the short-term.
by thunderpips
2
CADCHF ready for the break 🦐 CADCHF on the daily chart is consolidating below a weekly resistance. The price tested with a retracement move the 0.5 Fibonacci level and According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break above we will set a nice long order. –––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. • 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. • 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. • 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. • 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. • ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
CAD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSCAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BoC At their September meeting the BoC delivered on market expectations by not providing any new information. The bank acknowledged the recent hit to growth has been bigger than expected, but also explained that they deem the hit to be temporary and still expect solid growth this year. They also reiterated that even though inflation is currently high and expected to climb, they deem current price pressures as being mostly transitory. Right now the meeting did nothing to change the market’s expectations that the bank will go ahead to announce another tapering of C$1 billion at their October meeting, especially after this past week’s jobs report painting a picture of a growing and recovering labour market, albeit at a slightly slower pace compared to the June and July. 2. Commodity-linked currency with dependency on Oil exports Oil staged a massive recovery after hitting rock bottom in 2020. The move higher over the past few months has been driven by supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts); improving global economic outlook and improving oil demand outlook (vaccines and monetary and fiscal stimulus induced recoveries); rising inflation expectations. Even though further gains for Oil will arguably prove to be an uphill battle from here, the bias remains positive in the med-term as long as the current supportive factors and drivers remains intact. We will of course have short-term ebbs and flows as we’ve seen in recent weeks which could affect the CAD from an intermarket point of view, but as long as the med-term view for Oil remains higher that should be supportive for Petro-currencies like the CAD. 3. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, CAD has benefited from the market's improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safehavens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. As long as expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the CAD in the med-term , but the recent short-term jitters and risk off flows once again showed us why risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver for the currency. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data for the CAD (updated until 7 Sep) showed a positioning change of -3162 with a net non-commercial position of -6010. After some substantial unwinding of oversubscribed net-long positioning over the past couple of months, we’ve now seen CAD positioning move into net-short territory, and since the bias is still bullish in the med-term that means there is a lot of room left to run to the upside in line with the overall bullish fundamentals. As the market’s view on tapering expectations for October is in tact we might see CAD trade more sensitive to overall risk sentiment and Oil price action compared to the monetary policy outlook. CHF FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF. Swiss economic data rarely proves market moving; and although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall bearish tone and a preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone is improving with coronavirus vaccines being rolled out as well as the unprecedented amount of monetary policy accommodation and fiscal support from governments. Of course, risks remain as many countries are now battling third waves of the virus. As such, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook which could prove supportive for the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop; however, on balance the overall risk outlook is continuing to improve and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish. 2. SNB Intervention Despite the negative drivers, the CHF has remained surprisingly strong over the past couple of weeks. This divergence from the fundamental outlook doesn’t make much sense, but the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests, thus be careful when trading the CHF and always keep the possibility of SNB intervention in mind. In a recent note ING investment provided their rationale for the recent strength in the CHF and suggests that the lower inflation in Switzerland compared to the EU means the real trade-weighted CHF is trading too cheap. Furthermore, the ECB’s bond buying has meant that their balance sheet is expanding more rapidly compared to that of the SNB, which could have been reasons why the SNB did not see the need for any meaningful intervention lately. However, as intervention is always the possibility it’s a risk to always keep in mind when trading the CHF. 3. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data for the CHF (updated until 7 Sep) showed a positioning change of -3755 with a net non-commercial position of +220. The CHF positioning continued to unwind some of its recent surprising strength over the past few weeks. The CHF still the third largest net-long positioning among the majors, which is at odds with the current fundamental bearish outlook for the currency. Even though we expect the currency to weaken in the med-term, any drastic escalation in risk off tones could still continue to provide support for the safe-haven currency.
by thunderpips
1
CADCHF potential short term bullish momentum | 10th Sep 2021Price is seen to be holding below descending trendline resistance, however we are expecting a short term bullish burst to the trendline resistance. We are expecting price to retrace back to the pivot level ,in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and 61.8% Fibonacci extension level, and bounce back up to the take profit level in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension . Our potential bullish bias is further supported by the golden cross formed by the 50 period MA and 200 period MA, as well as the Stochastic indicators where the %K line is abiding the ascending trendline. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM