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CAD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSCAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BoC At their September meeting the BoC delivered on market expectations by not providing any new information. The bank acknowledged the recent hit to growth has been bigger than expected, but also explained that they deem the hit to be temporary and still expect solid growth this year. They also reiterated that even though inflation is currently high and expected to climb, they deem current price pressures as being mostly transitory. The meeting did nothing to change the market’s expectations that the bank will go ahead to announce another round of tapering of C$1 billion at their October meeting, especially after the recent jobs report painted a picture of a growing and recovering labour market, albeit at a slightly slower pace compared to June and July. 2. Commodity-linked currency with dependency on Oil exports Oil staged a massive recovery after hitting rock bottom in 2020. The move higher over the past few months has been driven by supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts); improving global economic outlook and improving oil demand outlook, even though slightly pushed back by Delta concerns (vaccines and monetary and fiscal stimulus induced recoveries); rising inflation expectations. Even though further gains for Oil will arguably prove to be an uphill battle from here, the bias remains positive in the med-term as long as current supportive factors and drivers remains intact. We will of course have short-term ebbs and flows as we’ve seen in recent weeks which could affect the CAD from an intermarket point of view, but as long as the med-term view for Oil remains higher that should be supportive for Petro-currencies like the CAD. 3. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, CAD has benefited from the market's improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safehavens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the CAD in the med-term, but the recent short-term jitters and risk off flows once again showed us why risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver for the currency. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data (updated until 14 Sep) showed a positioning change of -3273 with a net non-commercial position of -9283. After some substantial unwinding of oversubscribed net-long positioning over the past couple of months, we’ve now seen CAD positioning move into netshort territory, and since the med-term bias is still bullish it means there is room left to run to the upside in line with the overall bullish fundamentals. Even though market expectations for Oct tapering is intact, markets have been reluctant to trade the CAD back in line with its fundamental bias. The USDCAD as a good example have of course seen large swings in the past two months, but despite them the pair remains largely unchanged from where we were trading two months ago. Patience might be required with this one until we get more clarity from incoming US data as well as expected tapering actions from the Fed. JPY FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y . However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. The rangebound price action in US10Y from July has meant our conviction in JPY shorts has reduced versus the US Dollar , and until US10Y can convincingly break higher and take out its recent range highs we will stay more patient with USDJPY longs. 3. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data (updated until 14 Sep) showed a positioning change of +2030 with a net non-commercial position of -60295. With positioning still, the largest net-short among the majors we want to be careful of the risks going into September which is historically the worse performing month for equities. That alone doesn’t mean we are expecting equities to push lower but given the frothy price action over recent weeks (haven’t seen a 5% correction in the S&P500 in 11 months) as well as seasonality and the growing chorus of participants calling for a bigger correction, we don’t want to ignore the possibility of some increased volatility this month. That doesn’t mean we start buying the JPY of course, it just means that if we do see some jitters creeping in for risk assets it is expected to be positive for the JPY, and with the biggest net-short for the majors there is a lot of downside in the JPY that can be unwound in such a scenario.
by thunderpips
CADJPY bounce at the 0.618 🦐CADJPY on the 4h chart after the test of the weekly support created an impulse to the upside.ò The market has then slowly retraced in a descending channel to the 0.618 Fibonacci level with a spike and created a solid test of the 0.5. According to Plancton's strategy if the price will satisfy our Academy rules we will set a nice long order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
8
CAD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSCAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BoC At their September meeting the BoC delivered on market expectations by not providing any new information. The bank acknowledged the recent hit to growth has been bigger than expected, but also explained that they deem the hit to be temporary and still expect solid growth this year. They also reiterated that even though inflation is currently high and expected to climb, they deem current price pressures as being mostly transitory. Right now the meeting did nothing to change the market’s expectations that the bank will go ahead to announce another tapering of C$1 billion at their October meeting, especially after this past week’s jobs report painting a picture of a growing and recovering labour market, albeit at a slightly slower pace compared to the June and July. 2. Commodity-linked currency with dependency on Oil exports Oil staged a massive recovery after hitting rock bottom in 2020. The move higher over the past few months has been driven by supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts); improving global economic outlook and improving oil demand outlook (vaccines and monetary and fiscal stimulus induced recoveries); rising inflation expectations. Even though further gains for Oil will arguably prove to be an uphill battle from here, the bias remains positive in the med-term as long as the current supportive factors and drivers remains intact. We will of course have short-term ebbs and flows as we’ve seen in recent weeks which could affect the CAD from an intermarket point of view, but as long as the med-term view for Oil remains higher that should be supportive for Petro-currencies like the CAD. 3. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, CAD has benefited from the market's improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safehavens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. As long as expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the CAD in the med-term , but the recent short-term jitters and risk off flows once again showed us why risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver for the currency. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data for the CAD (updated until 7 Sep) showed a positioning change of -3162 with a net non-commercial position of -6010. After some substantial unwinding of oversubscribed net-long positioning over the past couple of months, we’ve now seen CAD positioning move into net-short territory, and since the bias is still bullish in the med-term that means there is a lot of room left to run to the upside in line with the overall bullish fundamentals. As the market’s view on tapering expectations for October is in tact we might see CAD trade more sensitive to overall risk sentiment and Oil price action compared to the monetary policy outlook. JPY FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y . However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. The rangebound price action in US10Y from July has meant our conviction in JPY shorts has reduced versus the US Dollar , and until US10Y can convincingly break higher and take out its recent range highs we will stay more patient with USDJPY longs. 3. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data for the JPY (updated until 7 Sep) showed a positioning change of +805 with a net non-commercial position of -62325. With positioning still, the largest net-short among the majors we want to be careful of the risks going into September which is historically the worse performing month for equities. That alone doesn’t mean we are expecting equities to push lower but given the frothy price action over recent weeks (haven’t seen a 5% correction in the S&P500 in 11 months) as well as seasonality and the growing chorus of participants calling for a bigger correction, we don’t want to ignore the possibility of some increased volatility this month. That doesn’t mean we start buying the JPY of course, it just means that if we do see some jitters creeping in for risk assets it is expected to be positive for the JPY, and with the biggest net-short for the majors there is a lot of downside in the JPY that can be unwound in such a scenario.
by thunderpips
2
CAD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSCAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BoC At their September meeting the BoC delivered on market expectations by not providing any new information. The bank acknowledged the recent hit to growth has been bigger than expected, but also explained that they deem the hit to be temporary and still expect solid growth this year. They also reiterated that even though inflation is currently high and expected to climb, they deem current price pressures as being mostly transitory. Right now the meeting did nothing to change the market’s expectations that the bank will go ahead to announce another tapering of C$1 billion at their October meeting, especially after this past week’s jobs report painting a picture of a growing and recovering labour market, albeit at a slightly slower pace compared to the June and July. 2. Commodity-linked currency with dependency on Oil exports Oil staged a massive recovery after hitting rock bottom in 2020. The move higher over the past few months has been driven by supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts); improving global economic outlook and improving oil demand outlook (vaccines and monetary and fiscal stimulus induced recoveries); rising inflation expectations. Even though further gains for Oil will arguably prove to be an uphill battle from here, the bias remains positive in the med-term as long as the current supportive factors and drivers remains intact. We will of course have short-term ebbs and flows as we’ve seen in recent weeks which could affect the CAD from an intermarket point of view, but as long as the med-term view for Oil remains higher that should be supportive for Petro-currencies like the CAD. 3. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, CAD has benefited from the market's improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safehavens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. As long as expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the CAD in the med-term, but the recent short-term jitters and risk off flows once again showed us why risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver for the currency. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data for the CAD (updated until 7 Sep) showed a positioning change of -3162 with a net non-commercial position of -6010. After some substantial unwinding of oversubscribed net-long positioning over the past couple of months, we’ve now seen CAD positioning move into net-short territory, and since the bias is still bullish in the med-term that means there is a lot of room left to run to the upside in line with the overall bullish fundamentals. As the market’s view on tapering expectations for October is in tact we might see CAD trade more sensitive to overall risk sentiment and Oil price action compared to the monetary policy outlook. JPY FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y . However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. The rangebound price action in US10Y from July has meant our conviction in JPY shorts has reduced versus the US Dollar , and until US10Y can convincingly break higher and take out its recent range highs we will stay more patient with USDJPY longs. 3. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data for the JPY (updated until 7 Sep) showed a positioning change of +805 with a net non-commercial position of -62325. With positioning still, the largest net-short among the majors we want to be careful of the risks going into September which is historically the worse performing month for equities. That alone doesn’t mean we are expecting equities to push lower but given the frothy price action over recent weeks (haven’t seen a 5% correction in the S&P500 in 11 months) as well as seasonality and the growing chorus of participants calling for a bigger correction, we don’t want to ignore the possibility of some increased volatility this month. That doesn’t mean we start buying the JPY of course, it just means that if we do see some jitters creeping in for risk assets it is expected to be positive for the JPY, and with the biggest net-short for the majors there is a lot of downside in the JPY that can be unwound in such a scenario.
by thunderpips
1
CADJPY facing bearish pressure, potential reversal. Drop IncominPrice is below our descending trendline resistance and may bearish from our 1st resistance at 86.986 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2 Fibonacci extension towards the 1st support at 85.886 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. Our bearish view is further supported by how price is holding below the EMA and MACD is shown to be holding below the 0 line. Otherwise price may continue to bullish towards 2nd resistance at 87.341 in line 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Short
by TradeGATEHub
CADJPY Short burst of bullish momentum | 10th Sep 2021Price is holding below the descending trendline resistance however, we are expecting price to have a short burst of bullish momentum towards the trendline resistance. We can expect price to bounce from the pivot level in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and graphical overlap support and push towards the take profit level in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and descending trendline resistance. Our short term bullish bias is further supported by the Stochastic indicator where the %K line is abiding to the ascending trendline. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
CADJPY facing bearish pressure, drop incoming!Price is facing bearish pressure as it holds under 1st resistance at 87.341 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 23.6% Fibonacci extension . Price may bearish towards the 1st support at 85.886 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension . Our bearish view is further supported by how price is holding below the EMA and MACD is shown to be holding below the 0 line. Otherwise price may continue to bullish towards 2nd resistance at 87.890 in line with horizontal swing high and 38.2% Fibonacci extension . Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Short
by TradeGATEHub
CADJPY: BUYStarting from the weekly time frame to the daily time frame, we can see that there is definitely bullish activity for CADJPY. We are also expecting a pretty strong CAD due to our trading analyses on other CAD pairs. On the H4 time frame, we drew a fibonacci retracement and can clearly see potential entry areas at 38.2, 50.0 and 61.8. With that being said, should price come down to these levels, expect to take profit properly between 121.4 and 161.8 off the fibonacci. Another confluence for us is looking at the relative strength index and seeing that price is heading down towards the buy limits.
Long
by cupofconfidence
CAD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSCAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BoC At the July meeting the BoC confirmed market’s speculation that they will continue to scale back asset purchases by tapering QE with another C$1bln reduction per week. Even though the bank’s language and overall tone was in line with overall consensus, the reaction in the CAD suggests that some participants might have been expecting more from the bank in terms of a hawkish tilt. The bank also reiterated that there is particular uncertainty in their projections and stressed that the economic recovery requires extraordinary policy accommodation, which arguably is something the bulls wanted to see removed in the statement. Even though the upcoming federal elections or the recent softer data patch won’t really alter the BoC’s policy normalization path, but with these two factors in mind the markets are expecting the central bank to take a bit of a cautious tone this upcoming week. 2. Commodity-linked currency with dependency on Oil exports Oil staged a massive recovery after hitting rock bottom in 2020. The move higher over the past few months has been driven by [b supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts); improving global economic outlook and improving oil demand outlook (vaccines and monetary and fiscal stimulus induced recoveries); rising inflation expectations. Even though further gains for Oil will arguably prove to be an uphill battle from here, the bias remains positive in the med-term as long as the current supportive factors and drivers remains intact. We will of course have short-term ebbs and flows as we’ve seen in recent weeks which could affect the CAD from an intermarket point of view, but as long as the med-term view for Oil remains higher that should be supportive for Petro-currencies like the CAD. 3. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, CAD has benefited from the market's improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safehavens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. As long as expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the CAD in the med-term, but the recent short-term jitters and risk off flows once again showed us why risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver for the currency. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data for the CAD (updated until 31 August) showed a positioning change of -8725 with a net non-commercial position of -2848. After some substantial unwinding of oversubscribed net-long positioning, we’ve now seen CAD positioning move into net-short territory, where is exactly where we want it to be as it means there is a lot of room left to run to the upside in line with the overall bullish fundamentals. However, as the BoC is expected to strike a more cautious tone at this week’s upcoming meeting we are taking things patient with the Canadian Dollar until we get the BoC meeting and Canadian Federal elections out of the way. JPY FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y. However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. The rangebound price action in US10Y from July has meant our conviction in JPY shorts has reduced versus the US Dollar, and until US10Y can convincingly break higher and take out it’s recent range highs we will stay more patient with USDJPY longs. 3. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data for the JPY (updated until 31 August) showed a positioning change of +3541 with a net non-commercial position of -63130. With positioning still the largest net-short among the majors we want to be careful of the risks going into September which is historically the worse performing month for equities. That alone doesn’t mean we are expecting equities to push lower but given the frothy price action over recent weeks (haven’t seen a 5% correction in the S&P500 in 11 months) as well as seasonality and the growing chorus of participants calling for a bigger correction, we don’t want to ignore the possibility of some increased volatility this month. That doesn’t mean we start buying the JPY of course, it just means that if we do see some jitters creeping in for risk assets it is expected to be positive for the JPY, and with the biggest net-short for the majors there is a lot of downside in the JPY that can be unwound in such a scenario.
by thunderpips
CADJPY is showing bullish momentum | 03 SeptCADJPY is showing bullish momentum. With our buy entry at 87.693, a likely upward swing towards 88.273, 61.8% retracement is possible. This is in alignment with the short term ascending bullish trendline and MACD indicator showing a continuation of the momentum. Alternatively, we will place our stop loss at 87.000. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
2
CADJPY for a higher high 🦐CADJPY after the last impulse retested perfectly the support area at the 0.618 Fibonacci level. The pair is now pushing for a new recent high and testing the resistance area. According to Plancton's strategy if the market will break above we will set a nice long order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
12
CADJPY is facing Bullish pressure.Price is below first resistance at 87.730 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension . It could potentially bullish from first support at 86.594 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 23.6% Fibonacci extension to first resistance at 87.730 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Our bullish bias is further supported by how MACD is shown to be holding above the 0 line. Otherwise price may continue to bearish to 2nd support at 86.208 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci extension. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Long
by TradeGATEHub
CAD JPY BUY (CANADIAN DOLLAR - JAPANESE YEN)CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BoC At the July meeting the BoC confirmed market’s speculation that they will continue to scale back asset purchases by tapering QE with another C$1bln reduction per week. Even though the bank’s language and overall tone was in line with overall consensus, the reaction in the CAD suggests that some participants might have been expecting more from the bank in terms of a hawkish tilt. The bank also reiterated that there is particular uncertainty in their projections and stressed that the economic recovery requires extraordinary policy accommodation, which arguably is something the bulls wanted to see removed in the statement. 2. Commodity-linked currency with dependency on Oil exports Oil staged a massive recovery after hitting rock bottom in 2020. The move higher over the past few months has been driven by (1) supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts); (2) improving global economic outlook and improving oil demand outlook (vaccines and monetary and fiscal stimulus induced recoveries); (3) rising inflation expectations (reflation). Even though further gains for Oil will arguably prove to be an uphill battle, the bias remains positive in the med-term as long as the current supportive factors and drivers remains intact. We will of course have short-term ebbs and flows as we’ve seen in recent weeks which could affect the CAD from an intermarket point of view, but as long as the med-term view for Oil remains higher that should be supportive for Petro-currencies like the CAD. 3. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, CAD has benefited from the market's improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safehavens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. As long as expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the CAD in the med-term, but the recent short-term jitters and risk off flows once again showed us why risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver for the currency. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data for the CAD (updated until 17 August) showed a positioning change of +3217 with a net non-commercial position of +5877. The CAD’s positioning has seen a substantial unwind in the past few weeks after the CAD got a bit frothy after the April BoC policy meeting where the bank took a substantial hawkish tilt. However, in the past few weeks a lot of the froth has been washed out and with the bias for the CAD still bullish in the med-term, the current positioning means we could see med-term buyers stepping back in gradually. The 370 pip drop from last Friday alone does mean that short-term the CAD has seen quite a lot of appreciation so keep that in mind for some possible short-term bounces from key support. JPY FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y. However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. 3. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data for the JPY (updated until 17 August) showed a positioning change of -3463 with a net non-commercial position of -66671. With positioning still the largest net-short among the majors we want to be very careful of the risks going into NFP next week. If NFP sparks concerns about potential faster tapering that could see risk assets push lower supporting the JPY as a safe haven. However, do keep the inverse correlation to US10Y in mind, because any expectations of faster tapering should support US10Y which should pressure the JPY.
by thunderpips
1
CAD JPY BUY (CANADIAN DOLLAR - JAPANESE YEN)CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BoC At the July meeting the BoC confirmed market’s speculation that they will continue to scale back asset purchases by tapering QE with another C$1bln reduction per week. Even though the bank’s language and overall tone was in line with overall consensus, the reaction in the CAD suggests that some participants might have been expecting more from the bank in terms of a hawkish tilt. The bank also reiterated that there is particular uncertainty in their projections and stressed that the economic recovery requires extraordinary policy accommodation, which arguably is something the bulls wanted to see removed in the statement. 2. Commodity-linked currency with dependency on Oil exports Oil staged a massive recovery after hitting rock bottom in 2020. The move higher over the past few months has been driven by (1) supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts); (2) improving global economic outlook and improving oil demand outlook (vaccines and monetary and fiscal stimulus induced recoveries); (3) rising inflation expectations (reflation). Even though further gains for Oil will arguably prove to be an uphill battle, the bias remains positive in the med-term as long as the current supportive factors and drivers remains intact. We will of course have short-term ebbs and flows as we’ve seen in recent weeks which could affect the CAD from an intermarket point of view, but as long as the med-term view for Oil remains higher that should be supportive for Petro-currencies like the CAD. 3. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, CAD has benefited from the market's improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safehavens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. As long as expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the CAD in the med-term , but the recent short-term jitters and risk off flows once again showed us why risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver for the currency. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data for the CAD (updated until 17 August) showed a positioning change of -3850 with a net non-commercial position of +2660. The CAD’s positioning has seen a substantial unwind in the past few weeks after the CAD got a bit frothy after the April BoC policy meeting where the bank took a substantial hawkish tilt. However, in the past few weeks a lot of the froth has been washed out and with the bias for the CAD still bullish in the med-term , the current positioning means we could see med-term buyers stepping back in gradually. The key risk of course this past week has been the deteriorating risk sentiment as well as the downside we saw in Oil , and until that reverses we want to be extra careful of the CAD in the short-term. JPY FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y . However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. 3. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data for the JPY (updated until 17 August) showed a positioning change of -2551 with a net non-commercial position of -63208. The big net-short created some additional momentum to the upside for the JPY this week as risk sentiment soured and demand for safe havens rose. With positioning still the largest net-short among the majors we want to be very careful of the risks going into the Jackson Hole symposium next week. If the symposium doesn’t provide any hints of tapering though it could open up some opportunities in the battered currency pairs like NZDJPY and CADJPY etc.
by thunderpips
5
💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in CADJPYTrading suggestion: ". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (87.12). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . CADJPY is in a range bound, and the beginning of a downtrend is expected. . The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance. . The RSI is at 28. Take Profits: TP1= @ 86.63 TP2= @ 86.37 TP3= @ 86.02 TP4= @ 85.41 TP5= @ 84.68 SL: Break Above R2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Short
by ForecastCity_World
15
💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in CADJPYTrading suggestion: ". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (87.12). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . CADJPY is in a range bound, and the beginning of a downtrend is expected. . The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance. . The RSI is at 28. Take Profits: TP1= @ 86.63 TP2= @ 86.37 TP3= @ 86.02 TP4= @ 85.41 TP5= @ 84.68 SL: Break Above R2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader ? Now, It's your turn ! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Short
by ForecastCity
4
CADJPY short burst of bullish momentum | 24th Aug 2021Price has jus bounced off the 1st support in line with the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Price is expected to rise up to the 1st Resistance in line with the 100% Fibonacci extension. This short term bullish bias is further supported by the price holding above the EMA 21 period and price is still holding above the ascending trendline support of the weekly chart. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Long
by TradeGATEHub