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Cad-jpy

CAD/JPY Forming a Bearish Head & Shoulders Reversal Pattern?CAD/JPY may be in the process of forming a bearish Head & Shoulders reversal chart pattern. The right shoulder may complete if prices turn lower on the 88.30 - 87.97 inflection zone, where the left shoulder was created back in March. If prices turn lower, the neckline seems to be the 85.82 - 85.41 support zone. Breaking under this area could open the door to extending May's top. That would place the focus on rising support from 2020 which could reinstate the dominant upside focus. Furthermore, a bearish ' Death Cross ' between the near-term 20- and 50-day SMAs are underscoring the technical bias to the downside. FX_IDC:CADJPY
by QM_Dubrovsky
CADJPY facing bearish pressure, potential to dropCADJPY is reacting below the descending trendline and is approaching the sell entry near 78.6% Fibonacci retracement where we could potentially see the price drop to take profit at 86.575 near 50% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing low. Alternatively, prices may rally up towards stop loss at 88.296 at horizontal swing high. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
3
CAD JPY BUY (CANADIAN DOLLAR - JAPANESE YEN)CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BoC At the July meeting the BoC confirmed market’s speculation that they will continue to scale back asset purchases by tapering QE with another C$1bln reduction per week. Even though the bank’s language and overall tone was in line with overall consensus, the reaction in the CAD suggests that some participants might have been expecting more from the bank in terms of a hawkish tilt. The bank also reiterated that there is particular uncertainty in their projections and stressed that the economic recovery requires extraordinary policy accommodation, which arguably is something the bulls wanted to see removed in the statement. It’s important though to keep in mind that positioning has seen a lot of the positives for the CAD already reflected in the price since the hawkish tilt in April, which means the downside we’re seeing could still be some unwind from the prior upside as the market will need more and more positives to keep the upside momentum going. 2. Commodity-linked currency with dependency on Oil exports Oil staged a massive recovery after hitting rock bottom in 2020. The move higher has been driven by (1) supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts); (2) improving global economic outlook and improving oil demand outlook (vaccines and monetary and fiscal stimulus induced recoveries); (3) rising inflation expectations (reflation). Even though further gains for Oil will arguably prove to be an uphill battle, the bias remains positive in the med-term as long as the current supportive factors and drivers remains intact, and as long as oil remains supported that should be supportive for the Petro-currencies like the CAD as well. 3. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, CAD has benefited from the market's improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safe-havens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. As long as expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the CAD in the med-term. It seems that a lot of the concerns about positioning in the CAD has abated after the currency’s push lower and have seen participants being willing to trade the CAD back in line with it’s fundamental bullish outlook. JPY FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y. However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow dependent on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. Even though the correlation was exceptionally strong from the start of the year, we have started to see some breakdown in the correlation over the past few weeks. The pair has broadly started to follow yields more recently, which has given us reason to take a pause in the pair as the bond market has not really been trading the way that we (and it seems vast majority of market participants) have expected. Given the current growth, inflation and tapering expectations the market expected yields to trade higher, but that hasn’t been the case of course. As long as yields remain stuck at key support the odds of building a base and moving higher again means the upside bias remains intact for USDJPY, but if yields should take out recent support, we would expect USDJPY to follow it lower.
by thunderpips
1
CADJPY Facing bullish pressure | 30 July 2021CADJPY is currently pushing higher. With technical indicators showing room for further bullish momentum, a further push up above our entry at 87.930 where we have moving average support and also 23.6% Fibonacci retracement could be possible. Upside target would be at 88.445 where we have Fibonacci confluence zone with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension levels lining up. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
3
CAD JPY BUY (CANADIAN DOLLAR - JAPANESE YEN)CAD Fundamental bias: Bullish 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BoC At the July meeting the BoC confirmed market’s speculation that they will continue to scale back asset purchases by tapering QE with another C$1bln reduction per week. Even though the bank’s language and overall tone was in line with overall consensus, the reaction in the CAD suggests that some participants might have been expecting more from the bank in terms of a hawkish tilt. The bank also reiterated that there is particular uncertainty in their projections and stressed that the economic recovery requires extraordinary policy accommodation, which arguably is something the bulls wanted to see removed in the statement. It’s important though to keep in mind that positioning has seen a lot of the positives for the CAD already reflected in the price since the hawkish tilt in April, which means the downside we’re seeing could still be some unwind from the prior upside as the market will need more and more positives to keep the upside momentum going. 2. Commodity-linked currency with dependency on Oil exports Oil staged a massive recovery after hitting rock bottom in 2020. The move higher has been driven by (1) supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts); (2) improving global economic outlook and improving oil demand outlook (vaccines and monetary and fiscal stimulus induced recoveries); (3) rising inflation expectations (reflation). Even though further gains for Oil will arguably prove to be an uphill battle, the bias remains positive in the med-term as long as the current supportive factors and drivers remains intact, and as long as oil remains supported that should be supportive for the Petro-currencies like the CAD as well. 3. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, CAD has benefited from the market's improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safe-havens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. As long as expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the CAD in the med-term. It seems that a lot of the concerns about positioning in the CAD has abated after the currency’s push lower, which could mean that markets might be ready to trade the CAD back in line with it’s fundamental outlook so that is one to pay attention to. JPY Fundamental bias: Bearish 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y. However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow dependent on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. Even though the correlation was exceptionally strong from the start of the year, we have started to see some breakdown in the correlation over the past few weeks. This week was a week where price action in US10Y was more closely followed by the JPY again, but not to the same extent as we saw during the early parts of the year. After the FOMC’s recent communication has improved the outlook for the US Dollar we would expect the low yielders like the JPY to remain pressured against the greenback which could see a weaker correlation develop with US10Y and see a continued bias titled higher for the USDJPY.
by thunderpips
5
CAD JPY BUY (CANADIAN DOLLAR - JAPANESE YEN)CAD - FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BoC At the July meeting the BoC confirmed market’s speculation that they will continue to scale back asset purchases by tapering QE with another C$1bln reduction per week. Even though the bank’s language and overall tone was in line with overall consensus, the reaction in the CAD suggests that some participants might have been expecting more from the bank in terms of a hawkish tilt. The bank also reiterated that there is particular uncertainty in their projections and stressed that the economic recovery requires extraordinary policy accommodation, which arguably is something the bulls wanted to see removed in the statement. It’s important though to keep in mind that positioning has seen a lot of the positives for the CAD already reflected in the price since the hawkish tilt in April, which means the downside we’re seeing could still be some unwind from the prior upside as the market will need more and more positives to keep the upside momentum going. 2. Commodity-linked currency with dependency on Oil exports Oil staged a massive recovery after hitting rock bottom in 2020. The move higher has been driven by (1) supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts); (2) improving global economic outlook and improving oil demand outlook (vaccines and monetary and fiscal stimulus induced recoveries); (3) rising inflation expectations (reflation). Even though further gains for Oil will arguably prove to be an uphill battle, the bias remains positive in the med-term as long as the current supportive factors and drivers remains intact, and as long as oil remains supported that should be supportive for the Petro-currencies like the CAD as well. 3. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, CAD has benefited from the market's improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safe-havens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. As long as expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the CAD in the med-term. Some participants have recently flagged that a lot of the CAD’s positives are arguably already reflected in the price, which does mean we want to be careful of possible stretched net-long positioning in the short-term. JPY - FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y . However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow dependent on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. Even though the correlation was exceptionally strong from the start of the year, we have started to see some breakdown in the correlation over the past few weeks. However, after the FOMC’s recent communication has improved the outlook for the US Dollar we would expect the low yielders like the JPY to remain pressured against the greenback which could see a weaker correlation develop with US10Y and see a continued bias titled higher for the USDJPY.
by thunderpips
5
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: It’s important to keep in mind that since the RBNZ meeting took place on Tuesday, we won’t see a lot of the upside in the currency we had this past week reflected in the CFTC data as yet. After the hawkish tilt by the bank as well as the solid beat in Q2 CPI data, expectations for hikes this year have risen substantially, and barring any major risk off tones we would expect a favourable environment for the NZD going into the August meeting. For the CAD, the fact that we it was one of the biggest position unwinds makes a lot of sense, as it shared a similar fate with the other two biggest net long currencies among the majors (EUR and GBP). The bias for the CAD remains tilted to the upside, but with a lot of the positives already reflected in the price, it will take a lot more positive news to see more meaningful upside in the currency. For the AUD, the virus situation is a negative driver to keep on the radar. Two of the largest cities in the country is already in snap-lockdowns, and further aggravation of the situation could develop into a key sentiment driver in the short-term, so definitely one to watch. JPY, CHF & USD: The JPY saw quite a sizeable lift in terms of positioning, with another big batch of short positions being dumped. The hefty increases in short-term positioning over the past few weeks was arguably driven by the fundamental outlook, partly driven by summer liquidity ramping up carry trade activity. Thus, the currency is always going to be vulnerable to see some of that unwind, especially when we have bouts of risk off flows as we’ve seen occur over the past two weeks. For the US Dollar, as the fundamental bias remains neutral and as we are well within the summer liquidity period, the main driver for the USD has been the incoming economic events as expected. This past week we had Fed Chair Powell’s testimony where his persistent dovish tone, despite rising inflation data, saw some minor downside in the greenback, but retail sales also saw some additional excitement. This week will be a very quiet one for the Dollar in terms of events, so be on the lookout for Fed speak, and also keep track of the overall risk sentiment. GBP: Doves turning into hawks. This past week saw some very interesting comments coming out from the more dovish leaning members of the BoE, with BoE’s Saunders paving the way expectations that the bank could announce an early end to their QE program at their next meeting. This saw decent upside in Sterling, as it confirmed the market’s ongoing expectations that the BoE will be reducing accommodative policy in the weeks ahead, but also due to the fact that these hawkish comments came from a dovish member of the bank. This week we look to comments from BoE’s Haskel who is considered as the most dovish member of the bank. If he paints a similar picture to that of Saunders, the markets will arguably be quick to price in a tapering announcement for the upcoming meeting. Keep in mind the upside in Sterling occurred at the latter part of the week which means the CFTC data does not reflect it. The big reduction in net-longs is in line with more unwind in the biggest net-long positions versus the US Dollar. EUR: Despite the big reductions we’ve seen in EUR net-long positioning, the currency remains the biggest net-long position versus the greenback among the majors. With the Dollar’s fundamental outlook turning more neutral, the outlook for the EUR remains tilted to the downside. Majority of the upside in the EUR from expectations about a EU economic recovery going in Q3 was already reflected in the price before the recent FOMC meeting, which left the EUR exposed to lots of downside from a positioning point of view. Even though the bias for the EUR remains weak bearish, the amount of one-sided price action post the June FOMC meeting has seen the currency lose a lot of ground, which means we do want to be mindful of some reprieve from some possible mean reversion. This week we have the July policy meeting which was made more important by comments from ECB President Lagarde who stated that markets can expect updated forward guidance at the meeting in line with their new strategic framework, even though Friday sources pieces suggest otherwise. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 13 July 2021.
by thunderpips
2
CADJPY Facing bearish pressure | 16 July 2021CADJPY facing bearish pressure below graphical overlap resistance and 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at 87.543. With technical indicators showing room for further bearish momentum, a drop towards our take profit and Fibonacci confluence zone at 86.669 could be possible. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
2
Today's Notable Sentiment ShiftsAntipodeans/Safe-Havens – AUD and NZD remained pressured throughout Thursday, while safe-havens CHF and JPY remained broadly well supported as a bout of global risk aversion hit equities and lowered bond yields. Commenting on the risk-off tone, Forexxtra noted that “the risk-off theme is clear across all markets, especially in currencies with the strongest risk DNAs including the Aussie, Canadian dollar and the Kiwi. This feels very much as though this is a washout of positions which could have some real potential in a market which has already felt very thin this week.” Forexxtra’s views were confirmed by Reuters, who noted there was a broad-based unwinding of risky positions by some hedge funds.
by thunderpips
2
💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in CADJPYTrading suggestion: ". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (89.68). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . CADJPY is in a range bound, and the beginning of a downtrend is expected. . The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance. . The RSI is at 29. Take Profits: TP1= @ 89.44 TP2= @ 89.24 TP3= @ 89.04 TP4= @ 88.89 TP5= @ 88.70 SL: Break Above R2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Short
by ForecastCity
6
💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in CADJPYTrading suggestion: ". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (89.68). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . CADJPY is in a range bound, and the beginning of a downtrend is expected. . The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance. . The RSI is at 29. Take Profits: TP1= @ 89.44 TP2= @ 89.24 TP3= @ 89.04 TP4= @ 88.89 TP5= @ 88.70 SL: Break Above R2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Short
by ForecastCity_World
12