CADNOK
CADNOK will dropYes. No sign of a turnaround. Momentum drops evident. Goals in green, invalidation in red. Not financial advice, do your own research.
ridethepig | Apple in the worm for CADNOKA very good time to update the short-term flow setup for CADNOK after such a brilliant squeeze. For those tracking the 2020 Macro flows:
This week we have a simple technical move in play. A textbook case of "Apple in the worm" as it seems to me a poor choice of the moment for buyers to continue the advance. Extending the characteristics position (= swing configuration) by letting buyers go overboard and bet on momentum while the macro defence can be a reliable guardian.
A better move is to sell the 6.99xx highs here with targets located initially at the support levels 6.865xx.. and then perhaps 6.47xx. The business of a bullish NOK did not become an attacking instrument; stops can be kept comfortably above the 7.00xx handle.
Good luck all those trading CADNOK in the coming sessions, as usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
CADNOK: Final phase of the bull leg.CADNOK is on a strong 1D Channel Up (RSI = 69.678, MACD = 0.025, ADX = 55.588, Highs/Lows = 0.0757) that started on December 30th when the price touched the 6.72000 Support. It is well above the MA50 and appears to be repeating the previous bullish leg that rebounded on the 1D Support. The pressure zones are symmetrical as seen on the chart.
This Channel Up though is on its final phase as the 7.1250 1D Resistance is close. Pursue this late buy opportunity with proper risk management.
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ridethepig | CADNOK 2020 Macro Map A good time to map the strategy and flows for CADNOK as we approach year-end. As you will have noticed I am tracking for a major pullback in the cross over the first half in 2020, this is coming from large macro forces at play. Central bank coordination has opened up the opportunity for NOK to outperform CAD.
Firstly the reflation theme via USD devaluation is going to help Canada a lot less than the rest as Canada will receive a spillover from the US manufacturing recession.
Secondly we need to discuss the impact of Oil across both economies. CAD and NOK are affected by oil with divergencies in their breakevens. For example Canada breakevens are circa $45 compared with Norway at $23 per barrel. Meaning simply Norway has more breathing room for the fall in Oil:
The third and final leg to the stool is coming from yield differentials. After the more dovish than expected shift in stance from BoC, the window is open for a cut which has not been fully priced while Norges which was previously the last hawk standing has hit the pause button. I personally see room for another hike from Norges next year which is the leg I am looking to trade here.
Best of luck all those in CADNOK, a very good pair to add to your FX portfolio.
CAD/NOK On an uptrend Head and Shoulder is forming and it is indicating that this pair is now ready for deep down till 200 moving average.
CADNOK: Interesting alternate ABCD on weeklyI've spotted late this alternate ABCD pattern. Alternates are any pattern where AB=CD. There are the standard ABCD patterns that are well known.
I'm exploring and learning from alternates to see what degree of corrections to expect. This set up is therefore observational only.
CADNOK: Interesting situationsCADNOK has make some interesting trend switches, that may afford trading opportunities.
I explore the probabilities.
This is not a recommendation to trade. Your losses are your own.
CADNOK Sell SignalPattern: Channel Up on 1W.
Signal: Bearish as the price is approaching the Higher High.
Target: 6.4500 (near the Higher Low zone).
CADNOK: Major trend switchI show a rare trend switch on CADNOK for the south on the daily time frame. This usually means business. CADNOK is a very violent pair to trade but potentially one that can deliver. Wide stops and big account sizes are needed.
CADNOK: Sell opportunity on a Channel Down.The pair has been trading within a 1D Channel Down pattern (MACD = -0.003, ADX = 20.845, B/BP = -0.0351) with the neutral RSI, Highs/Lows indicating that it is near a Lower High level, hence an optimal short spot. As seen on the chart the High - Low sequence has been fairly straight forward and although it may hit 6.4600 again, the current level offers a respectable R/R sell opportunity with TP = 6.3040.
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Trading the CAD pullback=> This week we have BoC on deck with a widely anticipated rate hike. The sales and consumer prints last week came in softer than anticipated and we see this as a great valuation driven pullback.
=> Here we are targeting the recent highs with stops at the lows. From a technical point of view we can see the early longs had their stops run on the data pullback.
=> For the longer term Canada remains in great shape, with almost completely free trade by the end of the decade on track.
=> From a capital flow perspective, funds have been hesitant to get long CAD via oil. The aim here is we are isolating the oil risk via an inline/neutral Norges Bank.
=> Best of luck to all those trading BoC this week.
Previous target hit. Approaching a 1W Higher Low. Long on supporThe last TP = 6.0866 hit and CADNOK has since rose within the long term 1W Channel Up (MACD = 0.038, Highs/Lows = 0.0111, B/BP = 0.0930) which is now pulling back towards its potential Higher Low (RSI = 53.641) near 6.27730. That is carried out within a 1D Channel Down (green channel, Highs/Lows = -0.0262). Once the low is made, we will be going long, TP = 6.500.
4H Channel Down. Short.CADNOK is on a common Channel Down on 4H (RSI = 37.434, Highs/Lows = -0.0223, B/BP = -0.0495). It is now looking for the next Lower Low but is near two important 1D support levels (6.12584 and 6.0866). If they break then 6.04 will be the Lower Low. Our TP is the 2nd support = 6.0866 and we will pursuit 6.0400 with SL brought down on profit zone.
$CADNOK Both Oil ProxiesSo it ranges, next move is down, I'd say. But tops and bottoms are free money. Trade show 2.2:1
