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Opening (IRA): SPX Oct 18th -5590P/Nov 15th 5590P Calendar... for a 30.15 debit. Comments: Opening a calendar here at or near ATH's and in (fairly) low IV. Selling the front month 40 delta put and buying the back month same strike put. I'm indicating that the setup is bearish, but it's starting as basically neutral from a delta standpoint with the metrics being .08 long delta/13.22 theta, but will benefit from movement into the put strikes, as well as any accompanying IV expansion that occurs. Peak profitability of this setup generally occurs when the stock price falls to the strikes near the expiration of the short option, but calculating the max profit is impossible due to the expiration of the short put leg before the long put leg coupled with any rolls of the short put that might be undertaken to reduce cost basis of the setup. Conversely, max loss starts out as what you paid to get filled for the setup, but you'll generally have a few rolling opportunities of the short put to reduce cost basis further in the event that it doesn't hit your take profit before the short put reaches expiration. Here, I'll look to money/take/run at 10% of what I put it on for and look to roll out the front month on approaching worthless to the following week to reduce cost basis in the setup.
SP:SPXShort
by NaughtyPines
$GLD Breakout and Option Strategy Spotlight with Overlay It looks like GLD 0.44%↑ finally broke out of its sideways-upward channel on Friday. Time to explore some opportunities using our Options Overlay indicator on TradingView. The current IVR is at 84, while the 62 DTE average IVx is only 19.9, making this IVx level exceptionally high for gold over the past year. On the daily chart, the Gold ETF is trading between the 6/8 and 7/8 levels. The options chain shows that calls 62 DTE are about 130% more expensive, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market. Examining the standard expected move (STD1), even at 4 DTE, the upside target is 237 (7/8), with the downside at 6/8. The delta curve shows the 16 delta OTM call trending upwards toward the 8/8 level, which aligns with the 250 level. Given this, I would caution against buying single-leg calls at such inflated prices. A pullback could dramatically reduce their value, and time decay will work against you. If you're determined to go bullish, a simple CALL butterfly offers a better risk-reward ratio! GLD Bullish strategy - if we are expecting rising IV Assuming further IV increases (IVx rose by 2% over the last 5 days despite a drop in VIX and a rise in the underlying), a CALL calendar spread presents a solid R:R setup. The Options Overlay quickly highlights the optimal expiry dates to target: Sep 20-27. I noticed a 4% volatility skew between these dates. The standard expected move (STD1) and delta16 suggest an upward probability range capped at 245, meaning there's an 86% chance that AMEX:GLD stays below this level by Sep 20. Here's my setup in this case: GLD Sep 20th - Sep 27th 245 Calendar Call Spread. This spread, spotted in under a minute on TradingView, offers nearly 8x risk-reward, but it's beneficial only if you're betting on continued IV increases.
AMEX:GLDLong
by TanukiTrade
Ethereum Dominance in January and February📈 Looking at the chart of Ethereum dominance at the top, and at the same time its price at the bottom, we can see that there is a delineation of direction between 📆January and 📆February. If dominance breaks out of this huge purple triangle, breaking through the 20% psychological resistance, the asset will either be outperforming other cryptocurrencies or falling less, depending on the context. Staying above 17.33%, I remain optimistic.
INDEX:ETHUSDLong
by andre_007
Economic data that a trader should be able to understand.Part 3. Turnover or retail volumes, orders and inventories This type of data measures retail trade turnover. As a rule, the retail business is, in simple words, a place where you and I go to shop to buy basic necessities and luxury goods. It is important because it is an excellent indicator of consumer demand within a particular economy. In certain countries, especially in the G8 countries, retail trade volumes may account for two-thirds of all consumer spending. They are a key indicator of consumer confidence. If consumers are confident in their economic situation, additional demand for goods and services is created. Economists track the growth of trade turnover – it helps to determine whether the economy is doing well. If the trade turnover falls, things are bad in the economy. Turnover or volume of wholesale trade, orders and stocks This type of data measures the turnover of wholesale businesses. It is important because it is an indicator of consumer demand – which, as we know, is a serious thing. A decrease in wholesale sales or inventories may imply or confirm a decrease in business activity and retail demand. This means that there are free resources that are not currently being used, but they will be used if demand increases again. This type of data is not as important as retail trade volumes, but most economists believe that it is still worth keeping an eye on. Import of goods and services In this type of data, purchases of domestic companies from companies from abroad are measured. If, for example, you are a Canadian company that buys raw materials from China, then this is considered an import of goods to Canada. This type of data is important, since imports may eventually replace domestic production, which may cause tension in financial resources. For example, if everyone in the United States starts buying only German car brands, such as BMW and Audi, this will lead to a lack of demand for cars manufactured in the United States, such as Ford and GM. Which will have a negative impact on domestic car manufacturers in the United States. As a rule, a country imports those goods and services that it is not able to produce on its own. But, of course, this is not always the case. Often people and companies buy abroad because prices are lower there. Another reason is that there may be goods of the desired quality abroad that are not available at home. For example, if you live in the United States and have a strong desire to drive around in a Rolls Royce or Bentley that has just rolled off the assembly line, you will have to buy your car in the UK. Oil is often not taken into account in the US data, as it has developed that the states are always forced to import it – the country does not produce enough oil to meet domestic demand. However, thanks to the new drilling technology in the US, oil production is growing – there are chances that over time it will be enough to cover the demand. You may have to do a little independent research on this topic – it depends on when you read this material. Export of goods and services This type of data measures the country's trade turnover with other countries around the world. Simply put, this is the direct opposite of importing goods and services. It is important because exports generate an influx of foreign currency, which can have a good effect on economic growth. It happens that a foreign currency is more valuable than a local one – this creates additional profit in the balance sheet of a local company. For example, if a company from Canada sells its product to the UK, it receives British pounds as payment. This is a very attractive deal, since (at the time of writing this article) 1 pound can be exchanged for 1 Canadian dollar 75 cents. Export growth can boost GDP, which will have a positive impact on the economy. The higher the ratio of a country's exports to its GDP, the faster its economic output will grow. Trade balance, the balance of trade in goods In this type of data, the balance or the difference between all exported goods and all imported goods for a certain time period is measured. The main question is – what is more in the country, exports or imports? It is important because it is an indicator of a country's fundamental trading position in relation to other countries. Obviously, most countries prefer their exports to be higher than imports. A large foreign trade deficit may suggest to economists that there are difficulties with the supply – companies are unable to meet the demand coming from abroad. The trade balance reflects the ratio between national savings and investments of citizens and companies of the country in question. The deficit is an indicator that investments exceed savings in their volumes, and the use of real monetary resources exceeds the overall economic result of the country. Index of export and import prices, unit price of the product This type of data measures the prices of goods that one country trades with others. It is important because it is an indicator of pressure on prices, possible problems with the exchange rate and changes in competition. Economists compare export prices with price indicators on the domestic market to get an idea of the pressure on prices for foreign buyers exerted by domestic producers. Economists also monitor import prices to determine the level of external pressure on prices and evaluate these indicators. Manufacturer's prices and wholesale prices In this type of data, factory prices are measured – that is, how much it costs the manufacturer to manufacture goods without adding extra charges. It is important because it can be used as a leading indicator of price pressure affecting domestic production volumes. It should be borne in mind that during a recession, the industrial Price Index (Producer Price Index, PPI) may exaggerate the pressure on prices. On the other hand, during periods of inflation, PPI can downplay prices, because contracts and purchases of raw materials are usually negotiated in advance long before production and release of products. Price expectations: surveys The purpose of these surveys is to study the opinion of manufacturing companies regarding inflation. In simple words, this type of data sums up what company directors think about the impact of inflation on their business at the moment and in the near future. It is important because it allows you to look into the heads of people working in the trenches of production. It can serve as a warning about possible changes in prices. Economists, as a rule, track changes in the trend of this indicator in order to predict a possible increase or decrease in pressure on prices. Wages, labor income, labor costs Salaries and labor incomes give us an idea of how much people earn from their jobs. Labor costs are how much the labor of workers costs the manufacturer. All these indicators reflect labor costs and the impact on consumer incomes. They are important because they reflect the pressure on prices and demand within the economy. Salaries and incomes are closely related to the current phase of the economic cycle. If incomes are growing faster than consumer price inflation, it means that real spending is growing, which is an indicator of the health of the economy. Unit labor costs In this type of data, the cost of labor per unit of output is measured. In other words, how much the labor costs for the production of one unit of goods cost the manufacturer. It is important because it is an indicator of the competitiveness of businesses and pressure on prices within the country. For example, if a company is engaged in production in a country with cheap labor, and sells its goods abroad, these are large potential profits. Conversely, if a company's production is located in a country with expensive labor, then it probably will not be able to withstand competition with foreign companies using cheaper labor. This is a key indicator of labor efficiency. If unit labor costs decrease, it means that the same amount of products can be produced for less money, since manufacturers will need to pay their workers less for the output of each unit of production. Which, of course, makes the manufacturer more competitive. If labor costs start to rise, then this can pose a threat to the viability of companies, because the production of products will start to cost them too much. Obviously, companies need to earn money to stay in business, so cheap labor is always preferable. Consumer or retail prices This type of data measures the price of a basket of goods and services consumed by an ordinary family to maintain the current standard of living. It includes clothing, food, rent, transportation expenses, and so on. In general, everything you need for food, sleep and earning enough money to survive. It is important because it reflects the inflation experienced by a typical family of a particular country. Here you need to ask yourself this question – are ordinary goods in general more expensive or cheaper for consumers? Will the consumer have more money in his pocket at the end of this year than at the end of the previous one? The answer can tell us a lot about whether the standard of living is rising or falling and what part of the economic cycle we are in now. Conclusion As you can see, when it comes to publishing fundamental economic data, many key concepts have to be taken into account. If you have difficulty assimilating or remembering all this information – try not to overload yourself! Use all the information and then you will earn more than the rest! Good luck!
Editors' picks
Education
by DeGRAM
29
Economic data that a trader should be able to understand.Part 2. Hello everyone Today we will continue discussing the economic data that you may encounter in the economic calendar, the knowledge of which will help you to make more profit in the forex market. Business environment: Indicators and Surveys These indicators and surveys reflect observational data on the business climate. These surveys are interesting because they are conducted among businesses that produce goods and services within the economy. They are important because they can give advance warning of changes in the economic cycle. They are also important because this information comes directly from the companies providing jobs. The surveyed companies express their level of confidence, which can be used to determine their intentions regarding hiring and layoffs of employees. They provide important data on the economic opinions of manufacturers and their expectations regarding business conditions in general. Inventory Data The inventory data measures the level of stocks of manufactured goods stored by the manufacturer. They also measure the level of stocks held by distributors on behalf of the manufacturer of these goods. This type of data is important because it reflects the dynamics of demand for finished products. This dynamic takes the form of possible sales. If the inventory level is low, it may mean that demand exceeds supply. This is a good sign for companies, because it shows that the economy is in a growth phase, and they can start to increase production and, if they are lucky, get more profits. But it can also be a bad sign. Low inventory levels can also mean that producers are not optimistic about demand, and therefore produce less. Here you need to figure out the balance of supply and demand. It is best to use this indicator in combination with others to determine the strength or weakness of a particular economy. Economists study the ratio of stocks to sales. This helps to determine whether the low inventory level is due to the fact that production is not keeping up with demand or that manufacturers of goods are not optimistic about demand in the future. If the ratio is higher than usual, production and imports may be reduced until demand increases. And if the ratio is lower, products and imports are likely to grow until demand declines. Industrial and Mass Production In this type of data, the conditionally net production of manufacturing companies and mines for the extraction of natural resources is measured. It is important because it is an indicator of the current levels of industrial activity. Many economists believe that industrial production can be used as a general indicator of the state of the economic cycle for those countries in which the industrial sector is developed. All the currencies that we will track for our trading belong to countries with a developed industrial sector. Industries producing capital goods and consumer durables tend to suffer the most during an economic downturn. This is due to the fact that ordinary people stop buying things that are not necessary for survival. Which accounts for most of the spending in most of the world's major economies. In turn, this leads to an increase in the number of layoffs, which only exacerbates the problem. Capacity Utilization This type of data measures how actively factories and equipment are used to produce goods. All producers of the country participate in the measurement – this is necessary to obtain an average value of production efficiency. It is important because it is an indicator of the level of economic productivity – it can give us hints about inflation. Strong economic growth together with high utilization of production capacities implies rising inflation, because all the equipment in the country is used almost to the maximum. That is, simply put, companies work efficiently, and production cannot be increased without adding capacity and hiring more workers. If demand is expected to remain high and interest rates are low, then manufacturers can invest in new plants and equipment, which will also lead to an increase in inflation. Rising inflation is good (as long as it doesn't become excessive). Everything can be reduced to one question: are people and companies spending money, is production expanding? If yes, this is usually good news for the economic cycle, because it indicates a growth phase. Industrial Orders (Manufacturing Orders) This type of data measures the total number of new orders received by manufacturing companies over a specific time period. It is important because it can be used to make a conclusion about the economic result in the near future. In a short time, a high level of orders is an indicator of increased employment and production. This can cause an increase in inflation, provided that unemployment is already low, capacity utilization is high, and inventory data is low. It is best to use this indicator in combination with others. The order level can also provide advance warning of changes in the business cycle. An increase in orders can be a signal of the end of the recession, and its decline is a signal that the peak phase has come in the economic cycle. But it all depends on the current and recent state of the economy. The same indicator values may have different meanings depending on which part of the economic cycle we are in. Automotive industry (Motor Vehicles) The name speaks for itself. This type of data measures industrial activity related to the production of cars and trucks. It is important because it is an indicator of the industrial production of cars and trucks. Based on these data, conclusions can be drawn regarding the demand for expensive goods or durable goods. Car sales data are not unreasonably considered a leading indicator, because the growing demand for cars implies an increase in consumption. In addition, the production of vans and trucks is an indicator of business investment, because companies use large vehicles in their activities - for example, in order to transport and deliver their products. Orders for the construction of buildings and structures and results (Construction Orders and Output) This type of data measures activity in the construction sector. It is important because it is an indicator of new investments and possible future economic results in the form of new construction projects. Construction is very much subject to cyclical conditions, because, obviously, it is much easier to do it when there is not a foot of snow on the ground. Construction is very sensitive to interest rates and expectations about future demand. And all because positive expectations are exactly what people are buying new houses or apartments for themselves (usually on credit). High order numbers may mean increased demand for construction materials and more active use of labor in the coming months. Low levels mean the opposite. Number of new constructions (houses), completion of construction, sales (Housing Starts, Completions, and Sales) In these types of data, the number of new house constructions, their delivery and sale is measured (previously built houses are also taken into account in sales). They are important because they are an indicator of the level of activity in the construction sector and can signal an increase in industrial and consumer demand. Obviously, the more construction, the better the economic prospects in the country. Plus, it helps to spur inflation. New construction implies an increase in demand for raw materials and labor, without which a house cannot be built. Both are related to employment and interest rates. Renting houses implies sales. This may mean an increase in demand for mortgages in the future. If mortgages are already issued, this can lead to an increase in demand for durable goods, such as household utensils and cars. Good times! Sales are positively affected by the growth of personal income and lower interest rates. Low interest rates make buying homes more affordable because people can take out cheaper loans. What we don't want to see is a lot of construction completions – and a lack of sales. This may mean that many of the built objects have remained empty. This situation will have a negative impact on the real estate market, on banks issuing mortgages, and will cause an increase in unemployment. This is exactly what happened in the United States during the Great Recession of 2007. an overview of the rest of the economic data can be found in the next article. all the best.
Education
by DeGRAM
7
Economic data that a trader should be able to understand.Part 1. No matter how well you use technical analysis, you should still follow the fundamental news. Fundamental news can push the market against you and destroy any pattern and even reverse the trend. Every professional trader uses an economic calendar for this purpose. Thanks to the data from the economic calendar, you can predict when the market may start behaving unusually, and with proper analysis of the reports, you will be able to determine the future price movement. Today we will talk about these reports, what they mean and what to do with them. Employment The employment data takes into account the total number of employees – both ordinary employees and self-employed citizens. Employment data are important because they are an indicator of the current potential of a country's economic productivity. The production of goods and services directly depends on how many people have the desire and opportunity to work. If all of them are employed, it means, obviously, the country is not able to produce more, because it has no unused labor force. Employment is highly cyclical because when demand for goods and services increases, companies tend to increase working hours instead of hiring new workers. When the economy begins to deteriorate, companies prefer not to reduce working hours, but to get rid of extra workers, because layoffs allow you to save on pension and other deductions, which are usually very expensive. Economists track the addition of working hours and the number of overtime hours, defining them as positive changes for the employment sector. If these indicators begin to fall, it may mean a slowdown in the economy or a potentially possible entry into the recession phase. Unemployment The unemployment data takes into account the total number of people who can and want to work if they have the opportunity, but do not have a job. Unemployment is highly cyclical for the same reasons as employment. They are opposites of each other. These data are important because they are an indicator of excess labor, which economists tend to regard as wasted resources. Unemployment is also called unemployment. There is a natural unemployment rate. Companies can only hire a certain number of people. At some point, the competition for employees becomes very high, because there are few vacancies. This, in turn, increases inflation, as hours worked and average hourly wages increase. People are starting to have more disposable income that they can spend inside the economy on expensive items such as cars and houses, which will cause inflation to rise. The inflation rate is of great interest to us, as central banks pay a lot of attention to it. Keeping inflation at the levels outlined in their policies and financial mandates is part of their job. Too high or too low inflation will force the central bank to intervene in financial markets. Personal income and Disposable Income In these data, the total income of the population after deduction of taxes to the state is taken into account. They are important because they are the basis for consumption and for personal savings within the economy. Personal consumption and spending account for about half to two-thirds of GDP in developed countries, which makes these indicators extremely important. When people's personal incomes grow, chances are high that they will start spending more money inside the economy. When there is a shortage of personal income, it is very unlikely that people will have a desire to spend the little money they have on goods that are not necessary for survival. Economists pay attention to the steady growth of real personal income. If it is too fast, it will cause a sharp increase in inflation. If it is too slow, it can lead to deflation, which is very bad for the economy (and for the positions of bankers of the central bank). By the way, we will devote a separate article to inflation and deflation, as this is a very important topic. Don't be afraid, we've got it all covered! Consumer and Personal Expenditure, Private Consumption In this type of data, total expenses are measured. In other words, how much each person consumes on average. They are important because they are a key component of GDP along with personal and disposable income, as they show how much money each person is ready to spend on goods and services at the moment – both necessary and just desired. Don't forget, spending is something very serious for developed countries. Economists track the dynamics of changes in real interest rates in order to adjust their views on the economy. For example, if expenses grow by 6%, and prices rise by only 4%, then real expenses have increased by only 2%. Positive and negative changes in spending on durable goods (for example, cars, washing machines, agricultural equipment) can be an early signal of changes in the economic situation. An increase in the number of purchases is regarded as a positive phenomenon, while a decrease in purchases is generally considered negative for the economy. an overview of the rest of the economic data can be found in the next article. all the best.
Education
by DeGRAM
9
4-8th April Economic Outlook!Hey traders, Today we're going to be looking through this weeks economic calendar. We're going to look at what data is going to be released and what really is going to be affecting the market. I will also share my bias on the different pairs and the different data being released to see if any of these are going to be tradeable or whether or not we should just kind of stay out of the market during these times of uncertainty. I hope you enjoy this outlook into the week ahead. It's going to be a quiet week compared to recent times unless we get any breaking news coming out of Russia and Ukraine. In terms of economic data releases, it is going to be a little bit quieter than usual. Monday - 4th April We don't have too much happening in our favor on Monday. Here the biggest release is the unemployment change for Spain. While it may move the euro just a little bit, I'm not seeing a whole lot of tradeable opportunity. I think Monday is going to be a lot better just to kind of sit back and watch to see what happens. Tuesday - 5th April On Tuesday, we get a little bit more exciting. We have a fair bit of data being released for us. 🟨 AIG Construction Index Early in the morning we have the AUD, AIG construction index. This index indicates how well the construction industry is actually running at the moment, it's not something we're going to trade, but rather it's good insight as looking ahead into the PMI, into our employment rates and then overall trade balance in the future. It is a good indication of how well the economy is running confined into that construction sector as it is a very large employer in Australia. 🟥 Cash Rate Coming in a little bit later in the day, we have a very large, definitely tradeable event with the RBA rate statement and their overall cash rate. The forecast is for it to remain at 0.10%. I believe this will remain at 0.10%. I'm not expecting any shock announcements. However, in the event we do get a shock number come through, it's going to be a very volatile time and a possible opportunity to be able to catch a lot of pips on the Aussie dollar. If we do get a shock event on this, it will move for a few hours prior to entering into the European market so keep an eye on this release. ⬜ EUR Looking ahead, we do get a lot of services PMI coming out for the euro, but not really looking to be trading that. I'd rather use that as an indication of how well the economy is running, looking ahead into future releases. 🟥 ISM Services PMI The biggest standout is the ISM services PMI for the US dollar. Obviously the market is forecasting growth in the services industry. I'm not too sure how well that's going to stand. It's not something I usually trade. However, given the previous data releases, I'm unsure if it's going to be able to maintain its bullish forecast. We've been told that construction spending is down, the manufacturing PMI, while still expanding has slower growth than what it was first anticipated. Our nonfarm employment change was negative. There's a lot of different areas suggesting that we may not be as hawkish as what the forecast says. So I do expect this to come in a little less than what we're looking at currently but only time will tell. Wednesday - 6th April 🟧 Crude Oil Inventories This is going to be an interesting one. This is something I've been looking to try to look to how it affects the US dollar, but rather something I'm just overly intrigued about given the current circumstances in the world. 🟥 FOMC Meeting Minutes FOMC meeting minutes is always volatile one. it is good to have a look through what the meeting discussed and how it went on. For users that don't know how this affects the market FOMC meeting minutes is a detailed record of the FOMC's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates. Thursday - 7th April 🟨 AIG Service Index Another AUD index release. We have the construction index earlier in the week, now we have the services index coming out. Once again it's not something I trade, however, it is fantastic insight into retail sales data. When we do get those retail sales announced next week, we can use this services index to give us a pivotal action point on where those retail sales are aiming, which is why I've noticed that in today's economic calendar, it's worth noting because we can make a preemptive play on the retail sales data release. 🟨 Retail Sales The Euro retail sales expecting a little bit of an increase with the overall potential panic buying happening across Europe. It's going to be interesting to see what happens here. We massively missed the forecast in March. However, it is looking like they've been a little bit bearish while still forecasting growth of 0.6%. Banks are no longer aiming for the real high numbers, I think we're going to come in maybe around 1%, but I'm not putting money on that prediction, it is rather an assumption. I will have to do some more research and I recommend you do you same as well, having the services PMI come through this week from all the different countries within Europe is going to be a great insight into how well the economy is actually performing on the retail sales front. Friday - 8th April Nothing worth mentioning on Friday, the week is going to come to a slow stop. As I said, it is a bit of a slow week this week, only a few different data points worth noting, so we will end the week quite quiet. Obviously, we might have a bit more movement on the fundamental side of things next week but this week looks like it's lining to be a great technical analysis trading week. Always keep your eye on the whole Russia and Ukraine situation because anything can happen there and the market will react accordingly. Do keep your news streams live and in depth as you don't want to be caught off guard by anything going on over there. These are personally just my outlooks having a look into the future week. Do note the data to keep an eye on when they are released and of course you can use the TradingView calendar as well to keep note on that. Have a fantastic trading week, I wish you all the best success.
Education
by the5erstrading
This is nuts, or I'm nuts--or BOTHMaybe this is well known among the crypto community. I don't know. I'm kinda here in my own little bubble. I was organizing and setting up a ginormous list of crypto charts when I noticed that there were a few odd coincidences about the 2021 rallies. In my estimate, there were three major rallies last year (Spring, Summer, Fall) and two minor ones (January, December). Many--most--of the cryptos I was charting would start going on bullish rallies at the same time. Not much of a surprise there. Wherever Bitcoin goes, everyone follows. I used the Date and Price Range tool to explore this curiosity. What I found interesting was that the rallies tended to start on the second-to-last week of the month. Not all of them did, but most did. The coins that followed these trends had been around for a while. New coins took a few months to find their sea legs, and then they follow the same flow. Some didn't have a rally in autumn. I kept seeing this pattern, so I set up a Google Sheet and crunched the numbers of 20 popular coins. Here was what I found. Spring Rally Start - March 25 or 26 (37.5%) | April 25 or 26 (43.8%) Summer Rally Start - July 21 (100%) Autumn Rally Start - Sept 21 or 22 (16.6%) | Sept 29 (75%) OTHER OBSERVATIONS - Percentagewise, newer coins enjoyed greater gains than the more popular Bitcoin, Etherium, and Litecoin. - For a majority of coins, the rallies lasted 40-50 days for summer and autumn rallies. I measured from the first to last green bars in definite reversals. Out of the 20 that I checked, they ranked as follows: SPRING RALLY TOP FIVE MATIC 535.31% LUNA 311.24% XRP 274.79% BNB 195.42% DOGE 174.18% SPRING RALLY BOTTOM FIVE BTC 30.06% ALGO 44.88% AVAX 52.98% ATOM 59.79% ETH 62.41% SUMMER RALLY TOP FIVE SOL 737.22% LUNA 638.88% AVAX 531.77% ATOM 382.08% DOT 250.04% SUMMER RALLY BOTTOM FIVE BTC 76.76% WBTC 79.69% BNB 93.60% DOGE 99.41% UNI 109.44% AUTUMN RALLY TOP FIVE MATIC 175.74% AVAX 152.27% LUNA 118.76% DOT 106.55% SOL 100.17% AUTUMN RALLY BOTTOM FIVE UNI 41.97% XRP 43.54% DASH 60.07% BTC 64.53% LINK 64.95% These were the percentage gains for the Spring, Summer, and Autumn Rallies. Those that didn't get rallies I just blanked them. ATOM 59.79% 382.08% DOT 65.52% 250.04% 106.55% LUNA 311.24% 638.88% 118.76% BTC 30.06% 76.76% 64.53% ALGO 44.88% 226.58% SOL 125.24% 737.22% 100.17% LINK 105.31% 153.27% 64.95% XRP 274.79% 162.94% 43.54% WBTC 79.69% 65.83% ETH 62.41% 125.60% 73.54% BNB 195.42% 93.60% 98.74% LTC 73.74% 121.38% 87.54% MATIC 535.31% 160.93% 175.74% ADA 116.96% 180.54% AVAX 52.98% 531.77% 152.27% DASH 135.27% 117.89% 60.07% SUSHI 133.88% DOGE 174.18% 99.41% UNI 109.44% 41.97% MY TAKEAWAYS Maybe this is a psychological cycle. Many were expecting that January Bounce that the stock market usually gets, but that didn't happen. Crypto works on different cycles. So if this whackadoodle observation has any prophecy, anticipate seasonal rallies to start around the 21st to 29th of a month. Everyone's talking about Bitcoin and Etherium hitting major supports--I believe the supports that launched the Autumn Rally. If the rally starts, though, I wouldn't focus on the Crypto-Biggies like BTC and ETH. I'd watch SOL, AVAX, MATIC, and definitely LUNA.
by ZenKimchi
3
The Most Bearish Calendar Day, Statistically SpeakingJuly 21st is historically the least likely calendar day to close at a higher price than it opened. Published in the Stock Trader's Almanac are the historical probabilities of each calendar day finishing in the green. The majority of calendar days range from 40% - 60%, and are more or less evenly distributed throughout different weeks in any given month. However, there are certain seasonally bearish or bullish weeks of the calendar year that consistently contain one or more calendar days in a row that are negative (positive), One such week happens to be the current week, aka the week of July following the July witching session. During this week, recent history suggests near-extreme levels of volatility when compared with the relatively quiet weeks that proceed it. Uncommonly large price swings in either direction have been seen to occur more often than not over the past 21 years. Most stunningly, over the same 21-year study, it appears that one particular calendar stands above all others when it comes to being anomalously bearish. That day would be, drumroll, please... The 21st of July aka tomorrow! Across the main equity indices in the US, we have had an abysmal showing in terms of percentage positive days on July 21st since 2000: Dow: 14.3% S&P: 19.0% Nasdaq: 14.3% While I still need to cross-verify this with at least another data source before I bet the house, farm, family and kids tomorrow, it is a fact that no other calendar day is even remotely as bearish as July 21st is. To put these probabilities in perspective, there aren't any other calendar days that are positive fewer than 30% of the time across all the major indices. In conclusion, I'd find it amusing (unless I bet the farm, kids, etc.) if tomorrow becomes one of those irrationally bullish bounces that we've gotten used to over the past seventeen months. -PigBetsTheFarm TVC:NDX TVC:SPX TVC:DJI TVC:RUT AMEX:SPY AMEX:DIA NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:IWM
Editors' picks
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by UnknownUnicorn5511258
70
overview to next week (fundemental)notice !! :(( the chart linked to this is just a funny view of chart so nothing to do with it )) ok traders i was looking at next seven days economic calendar and my overall idea about next weeks economic events is that it may result in having a bearish trend on eur usd, its not like that it is completely bearish but a mixed bearish bias. other thing that i wanted to talk about is im completely lost in news and analyses , ive heard it can reach to 1.20 and mostly people talking about eur usd going up, however it is possible but i most believe it may go down thats just a feeling. for final speech im a day trader and usually my trades wont last for more than 8 hours, so this weekly perspective to me just look like an extra information that you dont ever need :) funny enough with a good money management you dont need to be a god tir trader u just do what ever u feel for. good luck have fun trading !!!
by alisardari
Options Idea: Buy The Oct '20 JWN Call Calendar Spread @ $2.35Nordstrom has been a big loser since COVID-19 and is on a long-term downtrend. However, it's been on a short-term uptrend since late August and just blew through its July highs. The next objective will be the early August highs around $17.50. Our goal is to ride the short-term trend for as long as it lasts during September and October. We don’t want to own this stock long-term, but we’ll hitch a ride on this short-term trend with a long-call. Since we’re not long-term owners of JWN we’re buying an Oct. 16 2020 call and we will sell weekly out of the money calls against it to lower cost basis. Look at the yellow trend line for a reference as to where JWN might be and that’s the area to sell weekly out of the money calls against this long call. Make sure your weekly short calls don't run up against the trendline. Here’s how we set-up the trade: Sold the September 11, 2020 $17.5 Call @ 0.25 Bought the October 16, 2020 $15 Call @ 2.60 Our objectives for short call income generation against this position are as follows: Initial Objective: $1.23 (Extrinsic Value of Long Call) Stretch Objective: $2.60 ($0 capital outlay) We on the way toward meeting our initial objective by selling the Sep 11, 2020 call at $0.25 and next week we’ll sell another weekly out of the money call to get closer to our initial objective. 20-JWN-01 Opening Date: Sep 8, 2020 Expiration Date: October 16, 2020 DTE: 38 IV: 93% IV Percentile: 56% Odds of Winning: 36.60% (before selling more short calls) Odds of Losing: 63.40% (before selling more short calls) Win: > 17.35 @ Expiration (before selling more short calls) Loss: < 17.35 @ Expiration (before selling more short calls) Cash Requirements: $235 Chart Legend Green Area: 100% Win Zone. If we finish above or in the green area, we’ve made a profit on our trade. Since our position has a long call that means our potential gain is unlimited after Sep 11, 2020. Up to Sep 11, we are limited in our gain by our short call. Red Area: If we finish in this area we have a loss. The size of the red area is the size of our maximum loss. Since we have no uncovered options, our loss is limited on this trade to the price of our long call minus the credit taking in on our short calls. 1 standard deviation, 2 standard deviation, 3 standard deviation projections from Opening Date to Expiration Date are included. Make sure to follow us on Tradingview for updates on this idea as we continue to reduce our cost basis in this trade.
NYSE:JWNLong
by OptionsCoach
OPENING: SVXY MAY 18TH 13 SHORT/SEPT 21ST 13 LONG PUT CALENDAR... for a .36/contract debit. Ordinarily, calendars in VIX or VIX derivatives just plain don't work. This is due to a variety of reasons, not the least of which you're just plain paying too much in extrinsic value in the long-dated option. Additionally, the standard calendar is usually set up on the call side of things in anticipation of call side movement and on the put side of things in anticipation of put side movement. Here, however, I'm going "the other way," and will roll the short put out "as is" to bring in credits, leaving the long-dated option alone. I'm still looking for call side movement, but intend to capitalize on decrease in price of the short put instead of increase in price in the long call as you would be a Plain Jane call calendar. The other reason why I'm going this way instead of a call calendar is that I don't want to be in SVXY short shares. If anything, I want to be long in them ... .
AMEX:SVXYLong
by NaughtyPines
Opened Mar29 Apr20 169P 177C double calendar on 3/13/18www.tradingview.com IV rank a little high on this max risk is the debit until the front month expiration debit 2.36 Theta 3.54 Underlying price when opened 173.20 Upper and Lower expected move 167.70 176.90 break evens 167 and 180 gives a little more room above With the break even points being clearly outside of the expected move (per implied volatilty which is often overstated anyway) this trade has a high probability of profit. I will close it before expiration no matter what. www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Tom1trader
Open Short Dec15 Long Jan19 257P 263C Double Calendarwww.tradingview.com Been meaning to try one of these . . Debit 2.46 ($246.00) Theta 1.66 Delta 1.49 IV 10 IVR 12% Break-Even / Scratch 266.60 and 253.20 (13.40 profit range) SPY spot 259.97 Will set this to close at 10% -$25/contract (this is one) - If SPY sits as still as it has today will let it go to more profit Shorts are 23DTE and at that time with no move or volatility increase it would net $130 but will cover or adjust within 9-10 days. Even if it (ideally) sits still daily p/l will improve with closing at a lower risk time and redeploying the capitol.
AMEX:SPY
by Tom1trader
Opening Nov17 Short 259.5C and 256P Long Nov24 260.5C & 255P Double Calendar spread actually a tiny bet on little movement of SPY before Friday Debit $20/contract. Theta 14 Will take the short legs off with any sign of price jumping or within 2 days. A big price jump without the short legs could improve the profit so will be watching this closely and out by Friday. This time leverage can be powerful, that 14 Theta is because the longs will lose around 11 while the shorts are losing 25 in a day netting $14/day (here's the hitch, true if all else stays the same). An up move without the shorts will profit quickly but a down move even more so as the volatility should pop up increasing the value of the longs that I will be selling to close. We will see. Thanks for looking and keep smilng!
AMEX:SPY
by Tom1trader