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Expected Key Points Amazon 12 May 2022Amazon 12 May 2022 The current implied volatility is at 56.8%/year So that converted into daily is 3.58% The close of yesterday was 2107 So based on that our channel for today is going to be compressed within TOP 2182 BOT 2032 with a probability chance of 80.5% based on the last 3007 candles From fundamental point, today we have PPI and initial jobless claims releases and these mark a huge volatility moment At the same time the current values are expected to be bearish.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by exlux
Weekly Prediction 9-13 May QQQ Iron CondorQQQ 9 - 13 May The weekly VXN-> Volatility Index for S&P 100 index / Nasdaq Implied = 37.4 In this we have to standard it for weekly session 37.4 / sqrt(52-> 52 weeks in a year) = 5.19% My historical product is telling me with 1.5x coficient that the expected movement for this week E Volatility = 38.02 / sqrt(52) = 5.27% With this data, from my calculations, when EV > VIX, there were a 86.6% chance that the market stay within the bottom and top created with the ranged from the E Vol So for next week this range for us is going to be TOP - 325.5 BOT - 293 Lets look into an iron condor oppotunity for trading: 325Call Sell - 328Call Buy 293Put sell - 290 Put buy This is giving us at the current moment a 0.35 expectancy So taking into account from 1109 weekly candles, that 86.6% of the times the market stay within our top/bot channel, Our profit margin would be 86.4% * 0.35 - 13.6%*1 = 16.9ROI after 100 trades
NASDAQ:QQQ
by exlux
Weekly Prediction 9-13 May SPY Iron CondorSPY 9 - 13 May The weekly VIX -> Volatility Index for S&P 500 index VIX = 30.2 In this we have to standard it for weekly session 30.2 / sqrt(52-> 52 weeks in a year) = 4.19% My historical product is telling me with 1.5x coficient that the expected movement for this week E Volatility = 31.3 / sqrt(52) = 4.34% With this data, from my calculations, when EV > VIX, there were a 90% chance that the market stay within the bottom and top created with the ranged from the E Vol So for next week this range for us is going to be TOP - 429 BOT - 394 Lets look into an iron condor oppotunity for trading: 429Call Sell - 432Call Buy 394Put sell - 391 Put buy This is giving us at the current moment a 0.32 expectancy So taking into account from 1166 weekly candles, that 89% of the times the market stay within our top/bot channel, Our profit margin would be 89.4% * 0.32 - 10.6%*1 = 18.6ROI after 100 trades
AMEX:SPY
by exlux
Weekly Prediction 9-13 May SPX/ES Iron CondorSPX 9 - 13 May The weekly VIX -> Volatility Index for S&P 500 index VIX = 30.2 In this we have to standard it for weekly session 30.2 / sqrt(52-> 52 weeks in a year) = 4.19% My historical product is telling me with 1.5x coficient that the expected movement for this week E Volatility = 31.69 / sqrt(52) = 4.39% With this data, from my calculations, when EV > VIX, there were a 89% chance that the market stay within the bottom and top created with the ranged from the E Vol So for next week this range for us is going to be TOP - 4305 BOT - 3942 Lets look into an iron condor oppotunity for trading: 4300Call Sell - 4325Call Buy 3950Put sell - 3925 Put buy This is giving us at the current moment a 0.29 expectancy So taking into account from 1166 weekly candles, that 89% of the times the market stay within our top/bot channel, Our profit margin would be 89% * 0.29 - 11%*1 = 14.81 ROI after 100 trades
SP:SPX
by exlux
PCC - Tom Lee JinxNever underestimate the lunacy of former JPM Alumni Tom Lee. The Cathy Wood of C N B C - Tom simply needs to STFU. In January, Tom was concerned about the Markets after Mid-Year... ________________________________________________ Market Liquidity is evaporating. Volatility is expanding. The Algos have been very careful to press the Sellers on spikes in the Put/Call Ratio for the CBOE. _________________________________________________ Real Estate Ballon Stock Market Bubble Bond Market Beyond So, VX intraday is used to keep everyone offsides and out of the trades with extreme - wide-ranging swings. Use the PCC to your advantage, it has worked quite well. The range has been roughly 105 to 135 recently. Trade safe and good luck.
USI:PCC
by HK_L61
2
Short and Long Iron Condor SPX 05 May 2022We can estimate with a 84% confidence that the volatility for today is going to be below 1.65% For this the market will stay within TOP 4371 BOT 4230 At the same time We can estimate with a 86% confidence that the volatility for today is going move more than 0.4% based on the last 5658 Daily candles. For this the market will stay above the TOP 4306 BOT 4272 From the fundamental point of view, yesterday we had the release of the interest rates, so I believe currently we are in a short relief moment, where we can have for some days/weeks a small bull trend For today we have no big volatility news, so we cant expect big surprises. From volume point, we can see that the point of concentration is around 4300-4285 Having said that we have 2 different ways of trading for today IRON CONDOR for the first option, with the 4370sell 4400buy Call / 4230sell 4200buy Put Reverse IRON CONDOR for the second option wiht 4305buy 4330sell Call/ 4275buy 4250sell PUT
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
Ascending Triangle in the XLEThe Macro trends of 2022 are no secret to any of us. Sky rocketing inflation and the war in Ukraine have lead to soaring energy costs around the world. As a result, Oil has seen a period of extreme volatility, reaching a high of closing high price of 129.44 on March 8th. As a result, the XLE has followed suit and is up about +30% year to date. Exxon, the largest holding in the XLE, reports earnings on April 29th and has expressed that the anticipate setting record profits. Buy the rumor? The XLE appears to be forming a nice Ascending Triangle, which could be suggesting a bullish continuation. The Ascending Triangle isn't a particularly strong pattern from a statistical perspective with only about a 60% chance of realizing the bullish continuation. Take it with a big grain of salt, but there is also a very slight Hidden Bullish Divergence on the MACD. Nevertheless, it warrants paying attention to as a potential swing trade. A lot will depend on what Oil does, and the fact that XOM and CVX are reporting earnings on the 29th muddies the waters a bit. However, it could offer a nice opportunity for a shot in the dark trade to the upside looking for a pop the upside in advance of the earnings. Maybe something like an OTM Call spread around the .30 delta in XLE 30 days out or so...
AMEX:XLELong
by InnerMotionTrading
2
Buckle Up ButtercupI have been following GME forever. I have even gone to that little movie that was created to show my dedication. I have GameStop merchandise and clothing. I love this company. Lately things have been feeling different than usual, I still expect time to do its duty, as well as catalysts to potentially increase our duration at these levels as well. Soon however, GME will be more than a stock. Soon I expect large green bars. Soon. Buy. Hold. DRS. Want a choccy milky from the gas station to fill ur tum tum with num nums?! NO!!!! Because save $$ -> BUY -> HOLD -> DRS I LOVE YOU ALL GOODNIGHT (NFA)
NYSE:GMELong
by Trexarch
1
Analysis on USDJPYHello, my fellow traders hope you all are making some profits. We are here with our new analysis so that we can increase those profits for you. Let’s get into it. As we can see, the price is at its STRONGE TRENDLINE RESISTANCE. I am expecting a reversal. Let us know your views on this in the comment section. Thank you all. There is good news for our followers. We will be analyzing on-demand. So let us know which pair you want our analysis on, and we will get it for you. Do like and follow us
Short
by Ryan_lopes
6
Eve & Adam Double Bottom confirmation on Costco ($COST)Earlier this month, Costco made confirmation of an Eve & Adam Double Bottom chart pattern as it began seeing daily closes above the mid range between lows. This pattern indicates a fairly high probability (about 88%) of a bullish reversal relative to the sell off which from the recent all-time high (571.49) achieved on December 29th, 2021. Today, the price is within 10 points of the all-time high. I'll be looking over the coming weeks to see what happens next, and for possible positions. From here, I see one of two likely outcomes over the near term: A) COST breaks out above the previous high and likely has a forcible move to the upside, or... B) COST gets rejected from the current levels in the near term and has a pullback to somewhere around $520 In the case of A , I'll be looking to short either with a PUT spread, or potentially straight up long PUTs - which have a greater risk/reward but are enticing considering the macro picture of the broader market/economy as a whole. In the case of B , I'd shop for a long position with some kind of CALL spread. The statistics indicate that track B has about a 2/3 chance of playing out. This could be even more advantageous because it could potentially offer both decent long and short opportunities over the next few months. We'll have to see where the chips fall.
NASDAQ:COSTLong
by InnerMotionTrading
1