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Options flow predicting moves on Derivatives (Futures)Options have been and are an important instrument on the financial market for a trader trading Intraday Futures. Therefore, while exploring the mechanics of the option market over the last several months, as a result of work, indicators were created that load data from Quandl and then look for patterns that may herald a change of direction on the derivative market - in this case Futures Contracts. There are two main types of Options: CALL - allow their owner to buy a given product in the future at a predetermined price (Strike Price) PUT - allow you to sell this product at a predetermined price (Strike Price) By observing the market volumes of both types of Options, we can observe the sentiment of investors. The key factors are which volume (call or put) prevail in the volume and the dynamics of the volume - what is the trend on volume, whether the difference between them increases or decreases. In addition, the Put / Call Ratio analysis allows you to confirm or negate the signals from the Option volume. The Ratio indicator behaves inversely to the price movement - in the case of a bearish sentiment, we expect the ratio to increase, and in the case of bullish sentiment - the indicator should decrease. If the Ratio follows the price in the same direction, it is an anomaly. Of course, the mere observation of the Option volumes and the Put / Call ratio is not sufficient, as the Options Market is a much more complicated activity. It is worth including in the calculations such factors as Expiration Date, Bonus Amount, option type (In the Money, Out of Money or At the Money). Not each of the factors is equally important, therefore the key is additionally the appropriate selection of the weighting factors. For this purpose, due to the multitude of data, it is worth using Machine Learning, which I also do by saving the resulting data in a dataset in Quandl and displaying the data in TradingView using Pine Script. Below are some additional examples from recent sessions on ES showing the predictive nature of the Option sentiment, often preceding major movements in the ES index (during the spot session): First, from the left, the session from November 15 is shown and an opportunity to play Short. On the right, the session from November 16 and an opportunity to play the Long position this time. Session from November 10, where we first got the Bull's signal, and at the top we got a warning signal of traffic reversal and the possibility of entering Short: And one of my favorite moves on November 3:
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by skyline-trader
Long🟢 Falling Channel, Descending Wedge, Zone Support, New ATH Deep AI detected Falling Channel. Falling Channel is a bullish pattern. Our Neuro-Fuzzy Botnet thinks breakout. Also, Machine Learning detected Descending Wedge. Descending Wedge is a bullish pattern. Again: Our Neuro-Fuzzy Botnet thinks breakout. Linear Regression computed: 1st Target is the bottom white box. In an optimistic scenario, Top white box is possible. Fuzzy algorithms show a hidden uptrend. - Whale Monitor detected zone support. See cyan area! RSI found support. 🚀 We think you can send Bitcoin .
Long
by Elysian_Mind
1
Technicals on UVXY show high probability of upwards action(Im also using this chart to show some key signals I look for when trying to find possible price reversals) Using the daily chart UVXY appears to indicate a high probability of upwards momentum in the short-medium term. Today and maybe the following days could be a good time to buy calls at least 3 weeks out. Using the MACD indicator and the RSI indicator I found the following signs to hint at incoming upwards price action. 1. MACD Slow (signal) and Fast line in uptrend with signal line outside of shaded area (fast line/histogram positive). 2. RSI is in an uptrend. If we assume the higher low will be followed by an upwards spike or at least another higher low. - Additionally the %delta of the recent local bottoms of the RSI line is bigger than the %delta of the local bottoms from the price action, this shows aggressive buying from the bulls. Aside from that there are a few present and upcoming macro factors that could indicate an upcoming increase in volatility. A few to note: - Nov contract expiration on friday - Cryptocurrencies market under pressure - TVC:USOIL under pressure - a few FOMC meetings next Wednesday Nov 24th On the other hand, historically, the day before Thanksgiving (market closed) has proven to be a bullish day. So if the gains are good the next following days you might want to take profit sooner than usual or buy further out expiration and wait for the first week of December that has also been historically weak.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by bimmeresty
2
Long🟢 Broken Falling Channel, Zone Support, DeflationDeep Neural AI recognized Falling Channel. Falling Channel is a bullish pattern. See the parallel trendlines on the chart! Now, our fuzzy botnet thinks breakout. Its Target Price is in the white box. Our News Monitor reported: ERC20 network burned a significant amount of Ethereum. ETH became a deflationary asset. Monitor also observed the whales. Inflation-Hedge is their main reason. So, we think ETH will try a moonshot. Extreme volumes add to this idea. RSI has risen to the bullish side. What about the bearish scenario? Linear Regression module suggests: The cyan zone provides support. 🚀 So, we think you can long Ethereum. Keep your liquidation level below the cyan zone.
Long
by Elysian_Mind
Long🟢Symmetric Triangle-Breakout, Descending Channel (Bullish)Neuro-Fuzzy AI identified positive breakout on Symmetric Triangle. Symmetric Triangle is a neutral pattern. Positive breakout signals bullish option until Triangle top. The triangle top would be ATH, in this case. Deep Learning Pattern Matching drew a descending channel around the current price. Descending channel is a bullish pattern. Potential positive breakout until the top of the channel. #1 TP: Channel Top, $64k. #2 TP: Triangle Top, ATH. God's luck copy trading!
Long
by Elysian_Mind
2
Long🟢Descending Wedge, Ascending Triangle: Breakout & PotentialNeuro-Fuzzy AI sees breakout on Descending Wedge (white trendlines). Descending Wedge is a bullish chart pattern. Linear Regression (LR) forecasts bullrun until the top of the wedge (blue box). Heuristic algorithms suggest price might be in an Ascending Triangle (blue trendlines). Ascending Triangle also is a bullish pattern. LR shows this pattern will break up. Consolidation in an Ascending Triangle after a successful breakout from a Descending Wedge carries extreme potential because both patterns are bullish. We think bulls are in absolute control and bullrun heats up soon.
Long
by Elysian_Mind
6
Market Maker Sweet Spot CalculationsIWM Market Maker Sweet Spot Calculations NOVEMBER 2, 2021 How do we get to the Sweet Spot Derived from the amount of OPEN INTERESTS multiplied with 100 shares per contract times mid price gives us a good estimate what money is at stake and where the Market Maker will make the most money, or better said will lose the least! This is the spot where the market maker wants to be every Friday when there is Option Payday. The further text will not fit here since this introducing broker has no money to implement a nice editor or allows content provider to publish content without paying. Also for violating their rules some of my blogs got hidden. You will find me on Twatter.
AMEX:IWMShort
by Option_Crusader