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Trade Log NIFTY August 4In my August 3 post, I had said Today is the fourth day for the down move. When I see the reliance chart and NIFTY chart I think touch of support zone 10780-10830 is possible in tomorrow’s session. This zone is where there is a possibility of some sort of bounce. This is the first bounce after correction, so likely to fail. It is better to wait and let the pattern form before in long side trade. I was wrong here. I anticipated 50 more points before the bounce. But NIFTY bounced hard from the 10900 zone. ========================================================================================================================================================== My trades today I bought CALL when NIFTY sustained an initial high. And sold at resistance. I exited early as it was the reverse of the trend. My observations for the day NIFTY reversed the trend on the hourly chart by closing above 11080. It gained 1.87% BANK NIFTY supported 1.99% VIX dropped 5.44% Advance Decline is 32 to 18. Reliance Industries gained 7%+. This alone contributed 117 points Open Interest buildup at 11000 Put option is strong. Indicating conviction amongst the buyers. My view for tomorrow. Considering the momentum NIFTY had on 4 days of downtrend, I treat this bounce as the first bounce, which is likely to fail. But considering the chart of Reliance and BANK NIFTY, I feel there is some more upside up to 100-150 points. For tomorrow, I expect sideways market mostly with touch of 11050 - 11000 area, which should find some buying before NIFTY moves into the second leg of rally towards 11150+
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY August 3I my weekly review post (Link below), I commented, I take consolidation with a negative bias view. The pattern target is 10860. I sense that this week, NIFTY is likely to hit that zone. I need to see if this happens with momentum. There should not be any closing above 11130, If there is any closing above this level, short bias is challenged. If NIFTY crosses above, 11195-11200, actually bias is on the long side. Summary : Bearish consolidation view with target 10860-10900, reversal in view at 11200. ***If there is a gap down below 11000, that will confirm that this time correction may not be shallow. And any close below 10800, means the possibility of more downside.*** There was a gap down opening, so this correction may not be as shallow as others from May 18. From levels and target of pattern perspective, I think NIFTY got there in a day. =============================================================================================================================================== My trades today I sold 11000 CALL anticipating bearish day, I squared it off for the profit near the end of the day. My observations for the day. NIFTY closed the day with the loss of 1.64% BANK NIFTY closed 2.62% lower. VIX gained 4.10%, back above 25. This is not a good sign. Advance Decline ratio for NIFTY is 13 to 37, not as bad as the fall. Reliance Industries caused nearly 44 points on downside. Open Interest showing 11000 -11200 zone is agreeable resistance zone. My view for tomorrow Today is the fourth day for the down move. When I see the reliance chart and NIFTY chart I think touch of support zone 10780-10830 is possible in tomorrow’s session. This zone is where there is a possibility of some sort of bounce. This is the first bounce after correction, so likely to fail. It is better to wait and let the pattern form before in long side trade. My weekly view
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
2
Trade Log NIFTY July 31In my yesterday’s post I had said Tomorrow, I assume a downward bias with the possibility of 11040 and 11000. I’ll see the price action around this area to decide the next steps. If this is really some sort of intermediate top, there should be a gap down and the gap will be sustained for the day. NIFTY touched 11040. The price action around this level is indecisive. There was a bounce, but it was not a sharp bounce. So I need to look at Monday’s price action. If this is a usual correction in a large up move, it is less likely that there is any gap down etc. If there is a gap down with a break below 11000 with force, then I’ll start thinking about the intermediate down trend. ========================================================================================================================================================================= My trades today. Range bound day and filled the gap. I sold 11100 CALL in the morning and later covered it exactly at gap fill support. Since there was tight range consolidation during the initial day, I was careful about reversal around 11040. My observations for the day NIFTY continued its downwards grind, closed 0.26% down. BANK NIFTY closed 0.03% VIX fell 2.16%. Market players sense no uncertainty at this level. Advances to Decline ratio is 34 to 15. Reliance fell around 2%. It dragged the market by 31 points. Option data showing bearish tilt with resistance building around 11200 I’ll do detailed post about my next week’s view over the weekend. Have a great weekend! Link to my yesterday;s post
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY July 29In my post (link below) I expressed my view Typically, such range breakouts have caused 2-3 days of rally in NIFTY in the last 2-3 months. This time we can expect something different. If it is the last leg of the up move, then NIFTY can see a sudden surge in the next 2-3 days into July 30 Expiry. If it is more like an ordinary day, there may be some consolidation confirming the breakout. ======================================================================= Indeed, NIFTY behaved differently. Breakout of the range has failed now. My trades today. When an attempt failed to test morning high, I sold 11250 CALL. I was sure that NIFTY is likely to test 11235 where I had set the target and SL was at the high of the day. NIFTY actually moved much below what I anticipated. I ended up taking out profits at the target. My observations NIFTY closed at 11202 , -0.86% down. BANK NIFTY closed -0.13% down VIX gained 1.99% Advance decline ratio is at 22 to 28 FII and DII data on negative side My view for tomorrow The breakout has failed. I think NIFTY is likely to test other extremes -- retest of 11000 and 10900 initially. This may not happen tomorrow as tomorrow is an expiry day. There may be another attempt towards 11270 which needs to be watched carefully. Tomorrow I am more biased towards consolidation day. July 28 Post
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
4
Trade Log NIFTY July 28 In my post (Link below), I had said NIFTY is in the tight range of 11105 - 11220. It is really difficult to imagine the structure within this range, but considering today’s price action, I think NIFTY may break down tomorrow just a little. But there are multiple support zones from 11000-11050 where support is expected. Review: NIFTY did not break down. It was a clean trending day and breakout of the range. ================================================================================================================================================================== My trades today As per my plan, I bought 11200 CALL on break of 11220 and squared it off near the end of the day. My Observations for the day NIFTY broke out of the range today with 1.52% gain. It has closed above 11300. BANK NIFTY also gained 1.17% VIX cooled off and is now at 23.64 The Advance Decline ratio is good 42 to 8. Option Data indicating range of 1100-11500 for expiry. ================================================================================================================================================================== My view for tomorrow Typically, such range breakouts have caused 2-3 days of rally in NIFTY in the last 2-3 months. This time we can expect something different. If it is the last leg of up move, then NIFTY can see sudden surge in next 2-3 days into July 30 Expiry. If it is more like ordinary day, there may be some consolidation confirming the breakout. My plan for tomorrow No clear bias for tomorrow. So I’ll mostly watch opening and avoid jumping into trade in the initial hour. Reversal trade above 11380. If there is a retest, I need to see how it supports the breakout. My July 28 post
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY July 21My July 20 Trade Log I had said (Link below) Trend is up. There is no resistance till 10269. I’ll mostly trade intraday on upside. As I mentioned in my weekly view, I’ll wait patiently till I see some signs of exhaustion. In line with my Monthly view posted in June, NIFTY is close 400 points away from challenging my monthly view. Hence I don't move fast on either sides. Not much is changed. NIFTY is near the possible resistance zone of 10200-10270. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My trades today Intraday, I sold the CALL option when opening low broke. That trade was trapped. That was a signal for selling PUT as well. Both positions squared off near the end of the day. I am also holding positional short, which is a risky trade. My observations for today NIFTY closed 1.27% up. Gap up was sustained. BANK NIFTY closed 2% up VIX down 1.15% Advance decline ratio 32 to 18. NIFTY is in it’s 6th week of upside. Also it is near the level which has been measured as the target of the move. That is the first swing from March lows to April High. My view for tomorrow and coming week 1. I’ll be trading with consolidation to bearish bias tomorrow. This view is against the trend but I think 10200-10270 is a good area to start thinking about reversal. 2. I’ll build positional shorts, not aggressively, but with generous time and price stop loss. 3. For tomorrow, if there is a gap up, I think it'll difficult to sustain the gap especially if it is near 10200.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
6
Trade Log NIFTY July 20My view for this week My Trades As planned, I did a reversal trade around 11000. I was not quick enough to square it off on the first deep and made losses on the trade. My observations for the day NIFTY did not get rejected at 11000. It closed above 11000 by gaining 1.11% BANK NIFTY gained 1.62%. But It formed a doji candle + Gap opening. VIX increased 2.30%. This shows some sense of uncertainty amongst the market participants. Advance Decline ratio is 30 to 19. Not very supportive of the gains. My view for tomorrow Trend is up. There is no resistance till 10269. I’ll mostly trade intraday on upside. As I mentioned in my weekly view, I’ll wait patiently till I see some signs of exhaustion. In line with my Monthly view posted in June, NIFTY is close 400 points away from challenging my monthly view. Hence I don't move fast on either sides.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY July 17In my yesterday’s post I had said Not much to conclude today. The larger picture does not change. I’ll trade when NIFTY breaks out of the 10550-10820 range. Some intra day short opportunities only below 10640. Overall, for the last 2-3 days I was inclined towards a bearish view. I was proved wrong by close above 10815. =========================================================================================== My trades I bought call on opening when trend change level is crossed, I squared it off near end of the day. My observations for the day NIFTY closed 1.5% higher. It formed a bullish candle and closed above 10900. BANK NIFTY closed 1.7% higher. VIX supported this up side with drop of 4.75% Advance Decline ratio positive 41 to 8 Option data suggests a range of 10700-11200. FII and DII data neutral. Overall, NIFTY daily structure is looking positive. But still overall I think some caution is required. I’ll detail my view out in the weekly view post. Have a good weekend!
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
3
Trade Log NIFTY July 8Review of yesterday’s view 1. With BANKNIFTY leading, the stage is set for a perfect rally tomorrow. It’s dead simple on charts now that NIFTY will go to 10900-11000 levels. 2. If there is a massive gap up, I won't trade. 3. For brave traders, the reversal opportunity is near 10989. It was a wrong expectation. NIFTY’s price action is bearish on daily charts now. My trades today I did multiple trades today. And survived the last one hour of selling. I plan to do a tutorial post on the same. It turned out to be not so good day for the tutorial trading, as the last 1 hr selling was very strong and not anticipated. My observations for the day. 1. NIFTY closed -0.87% down. It formed two back to back bearish candles. 2. BANK NIFTY also closed in the red -0.19%. 3. VIX rose 4% indicating uncertainty in the market. 4. Advance Decline ratio is 14 to 35. 5. Sentiment has turned bearish confirmed by open interest data. Today’s price action was pivotal in many ways. Though some confirmation would be great in the next 2-3 sessions by big red candle. NIFTY formed dragonfly doji on Tuesday and created bearish engulfing of that doji today. NIFTY closed below the bearish wedge pattern breakout today. This breakout has failed now. BANKNIFTY also formed a bearish candle for the day. All three previous tops had similar price action swing, climax and then fall. My view for tomorrow Tomorrow is a weekly expiry day. I am not sure if NIFTY pauses here for tomorrow or continues and fills the gap. Overall, I’ll trade now with bearish bias for the coming week. 10800 is a clear level which needs to be broken decisively for any thought of an up move.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY July 7Review of my view from yesterday’s post Strong momentum day in trending market. If there is some consolidation tomorrow below today’s high, it is actually a good sign in favour of continuing positive momentum for 11000. If NIFTY rallies to make new high again towards 11000, it is very possible that it is near intermediate top. In that case it is better to trade strictly on very short targets. Better to stay out. Possibility 1 of consolidation. So overall, the setup looks good for a strong up move tomorrow. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My trades today In the initial few 15 min candles, I assumed consolidation day. I entered short on the break of support and squared it off at gap support. Observations for the day NIFTY closed near high of the day with 0.33% gains. BANK NIFTY completed some lag with NIFTY which will add fuel to NIFTY now. It closed +1.93%. VIX fell to 25.10 Open Interest shows a 10500-11000 range for the week. My view for tomorrow’s session 1. With BANKNIFTY leading, the stage is set for a perfect rally tomorrow. It’s dead simple on charts now that NIFTY will go to 10900-11000 levels. 2. If there is a massive gap up, I won't trade. 3. For brave traders, the reversal opportunity is near 10989. The conflict I expressed in my weekly post is now resolved, and the chart is telling firm bullish sentiment. My Weekly review post
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
3
Trade Log NIFTY July 6In sync with my weekly view posted *************** Possibilities next week 1) BANK NIFTY starts performing in coming two sessions very strongly and NIFTY rushes to 10800-10900 levels. VIX further drops around 22-23 levels. 2) NIFTY fizzles out the rally and drops back or consolidates. Now for trading action, I do not think this is a good enough reading. Hence I wait. I wait patiently till I get some confirmation 1. If I see BANK NIFTY >> NIFTY and VIX dropping, I participate using intra day positions mostly buying options. I’ll avoid it if there are opening gaps. *************** Now possibility 1 played out. And I did action 1. My trades today 1. I bought a 10700 CALL option which was squared off at the first sign of weakness. My observations for the day NIFTY gained 1.47% ~ 5th straight day of higher high daily. BANK NIFTY gained 1.59%. But did not cross earlier high. VIX dropped to 25 Advance Decline ratio is 40 to 10. Option data showing room market participants expect on upside. My view for tomorrow Strong momentum day in trending market. If there is some consolidation tomorrow below today’s high, it is actually a good sign in favour of continuing positive momentum for 11000. If NIFTY rallies to make new high again towards 11000, it is very possible that it is near intermediate top. In that case it is better to trade strictly on very short targets. Better to stay out.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
SPY Call SignalSpy might breakout here soon and it has gaps to fill on the upside, very bullish here Target is 312, then 318, then possibly 322 I called this in the group chat at 309.58 The group chat is having a 20% sell for the 4th of july ( Use coupon code: "July4" ) and will go on until sunday the 5th. I would , love to see anyone who supports my posts join our group and make even more money with us as we grow richer and richer by the day: If your interested join through DMing me All you'll have to do is join the discord, then go to free chat room and type upgrade and set up your membership. And of course Direct message me with any questions you have!
AMEX:SPYLong
by GoEasyScoobs
11
Trade Log NIFTY July 3In my post yesterday, I had said 1. Today's breakout is not a convincing breakout. Mostly because of it was weekly expiry and BANKNIFTY not supporting the move. 2. I do not anticipate this upswing will have lot of momentum. But with close above 10440, I have changed my view about the trend to bullish . 3. But I wont take overnight long positions. I am reluctant to be completely positive about this breakout. Nothing changes in the view. Again today's price action more of consolidation above the current high broken. My trades today From initial candles, I assumed choppy day and sold near the top of the range and squared it off near previous high breakout. My observations for the day 1. NIFTY closed 0.53% higher. It was typical low range choppy day. 2. BANKNIFTY closed -0.46% lower. Again 2nd day of divergence in NIFTY and BANKNIFTY. 3. VIX is down -2.79%. Market players are assuming lower movements in the coming weeks. 4. NSE breadth on positive side. 31 advances to 18 declines. 5. Option data suggests 10400-10600 as congestion zone with definitive upper bound of the range to be 11000. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I'll do a detailed post about my view for next week over the weekend, but here is the sneak peek... Overall, I sense that the current up move started 10194 on June 25 is likely to be last move before market regime changes. That simply means there are two probabilities ahead 1) New regime is a low volatile time correction. So NIFTY chops around in tighter range, with low inclination, , very low inclination. It could be small up or small down when you take sum of 2-3 months. This is similar to what happened in early part of 2019. 2) New regime could be resume of bear market and we may see fall towards sub 9000 levels rapidly. Difficult to see the point where this regime change happens but, my view so far is NIFTY is very near in 200 points vicinity of the same. Have a nice weekend!
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 24In my yesterday's update, I had said 1. I still think, crossing 10540-10580 is not easy. If with strong sentiment, there is gap up and it gets crossed, it'll be difficult to sustain above that without some retracement in the coming days. 2. For brave traders, there is good reversal trade around 10580 with SL 10700. To be done with options for next months expiry. 3. Considering the that NIFTY is in last week expiry, no target is impossible, but it should eventually consolidate/retrace around these levels.~ 100400-10600. Sometimes, NIFTY is kind and follows exactly the patterns observed. Today NIFTY reversed from resistance levels 10540. So this anticipation was correct. My Trades 1. So I was brave today and sold next expiry 10600 CALL. I squared it for the profit near end of day. My observations for the day 1. NIFTY closed in red -1.58% down. NIFTY also formed bearish engulfing candle. 2. BANKNIFTY closed -3.76% down. BANKNIFTY formed even more bearish candle, engulfing two days worth gains. 3. VIX rose 0.81% 4. Advance Decline ratio is 10 to 39. 4. Option activity tilted on bearish side, support is expected around 10000. My view for next session 1. Today's price action can be a swing high formation. We need to wait till Friday EOD to confirm. 2. Overall now I assume the trend is consolidation with bearish bias. 10500-10600 is significant resistance, even if gets retested, it will be hard to break it quickly. 3. Tomorrow, being expiry, I dont have idea how it'll go. NIFTY may consolidate a little or fall further towards 10200 levels. I am assuming rather broad range of 10180-10430 June 23 Trade Log
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 22Going in for today's trade I had assumption that NIFTY likely to face resistance around 10300-10400 zone. My Trades today: 1. I was not sure of the trade. When there was support taken at opening range low, I bought 10300 CALL and squared it off at Opening range High. 2. My weekend trade was closed for loss. The Credit PUT spread created on Friday. My observations for the day 1. NIFTY formed small indecision candle. NIFTY closed 0.65% higher. 2. BANKNIFTY faced resistance at the upper boundary of the range and closed 1.74% higher. 3. INDIA VIX increased 1.65%. 4. Advance Decline ration for broader market is 1324 to 542. For NIFTY, it is 37 to 13. Again not great but OK for the movement we had. 6. Option data shows clear bullish bias market players are expecting. 10500 is the next resistance. My view for tomorrow 1. NIFTY may face consolidation, but brief consolidation in the current zone - 10380-10280. 2. Even it goes little below but stays above 1060, the view remains intact. 3. 10380 does not look like a top. In next attempt, this will be taken out and NIFTY may move towards 10500. 4. Overall, as I discussed in my weekly review. I am not interested much in trading 10300-10600 zone. 5. There is no point in creating short position trade right now. Weekly view
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 19In my trade log dated June 18, I had said 1. Considering today's bullish day, there are two most probable possibilities. One, consolidation around 10100-10150. The other being the one more positive day tomorrow. 2. Tomorrow is Friday, so we can have q strong move. Since current trend is positive, the move can be assumed on the upside. Today my anticipation of strong up move was proved correct. My trades today. 1. As bias was up, I bought 10100 CALL on crossing previous day high, and closed it end of day. My observations for the day 1. NIFTY closed positive 1.51%. Breakout yesterday confirmed. NIFTY also closed at high which was the level around March 11. 2. BANKNIFTY closed positive 1.82%. 3. VIX down 4.74% 4. Advance decline ratio is 1277 to 522 for broader market. And 33 to 16 for NSE. This is not as positive as yesterday. Gains mostly because of reliance and Bajaj twins. 5. Option data suggesting range 9900 - 10500. 6. FII inflows positive. Overall trend in NIFTY is on monthly - bearish, weekly - sideways and daily - bullish. This is kind of situation where one has to trade carefully, 1. All three trends are different 2. VIX is settling in the region of 30. This will ensure we see volatile moves. Overall I have closed all my long positions and only taking 10000/9900 Debit Put Spread for the weekend. I'll post my detailed weekly view over the weekend. Have a nice weekend! Yesterday's post My last weeks view
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
1
Trade Log NIFTY June 18In my June 17 post , I had said 1. This is more looking like consolidation of upswing which happened from 8800. Since context swing is up, we have to assume the breakout is more likely on upside. 2. Again 10000 is the level, break of which can start this up move. This can happen tomorrow or Friday. 3. I plan to trade with positive bias and avoid creating short positions as long as NIFTY is trading above 9810-9830 levels. This time, my hunch played out picture perfect. The break of 10000, happened today and NIFTY closed above 10080. My trades 1. Clean trending trade today. I bought 9900 CALL next expiry on break of 9940. This I squared off for profit by end of day today. My observations for the day 1. NIFTY closed 2.13% higher. NIFTY broke out of master candle high today. It also engulfed two previous candle bodies. 2. BANKNIFTY closed 3.74% up. Very similar bullish candle. 3. VIX down 5.70% 4. Advance Decline ratio is good. Marketwide, it is 1396 to 448. NIFTY 40 to 10. This is a good sign. 5. Option data clearly shows the positive bias of market players. 9500 is being strong support. 6. FII and DII data mildly positive. My view for tomorrow. 1. Considering today's bullish day, there are two most probable possibilities. One, consolidation around 10100-10150. The other being the one more positive day tomorrow. 2. Tomorrow is Friday, so we can have strong move. Since current trend is positive, the move can be assumed on the upside. I wont change my view till NIFTY sustains above 9850, which is the base of the up move. Only thing to be watch out is since today was a weekly expiry, a confirmation is required by closing above today's high. Closing above 10170, will be a good bullish confirmation of the trend. My June 17 post
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 16In my last post I had said 1. I still think it is a consolidation day. I do not have much bearish bias for tomorrow. 2. I think NIFTY is likely to touch the other end of range ~ 10000. 3. Depending on how it reacts near that level will decide the next course of action. 4. There was some congestion in the small range of 9788 - 9870. This is likely to be some low volume action, also occurred near end of the day. 5. 12th June candle is important ~ candle with large body ~ surprise candle. Close above 9972, bullish and close below 9545 is bearish . till then its consolidation inside the big candle. Reviewing my readings for yesterday It was a positive day. NIFTY did crossed above 10000 in the morning. NIFTY closed below 9972. So still in consolidation. My trades today 1. I sold 10000 CALL when Opening range broke down. Then I covered the same as there was volatility spike. Observations for the day 1. NIFTY closed 1.02% higher. And crossed 10000 level early in the morning. Later went down on news and recovered by EOD. 2. BANKNIFTY similar pattern, closed 1.93%. 3. VIX gained 1.19%. 4. Advance Decline ratio 24:26, not positive. Some idea about tomorrow 1) Considering the volatile moves for last 3 sessions, I think we may have relatively calm market for next two sessions. 2) I maintain my bias , consolidation with little bullishness. 3) The current situation is NIFTY has formed support around 9600-9700 region. And it has multiple resistances from 10000-10300. The move from 10000-10300 will be choppy.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
PPL Great time to get into my long signal for PPLWhats up everyone today was a busy day for me so I wasn't able to do much charting and posting on here, but as you can see if you got into my PPL signal it was just downgraded. Which for us is a GOOD thing, we can add more to our cheap long investment for September 2020, which is a couple months away its still in profit but has gone down, If you already sold for profit this is a great time to get in once again. Right now we are trying to go back to $30.60, and unless some sort of bad news comes out we wont worry because PPL has touched a strong resistance ( Horizontal Ray ) and is bouncing back to the upside. And this is also a reliable Dividend stock that pys 1.40 a year per share, and is slowly increasing it every year for 8 years now. Once again if anyone has questions about the paid trading group and wants to join, please direct message me and I will answer any questions that may concern you. Also, this week im going to try to post more than I usually do. And I appreciate everyone trusting my charts and motivating me to keep going through my trading journey.
NYSE:PPLLong
by GoEasyScoobs