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Trade Log NIFTY June 12I posted this view yesterday, June 11 1. I'll continue to assume this is consolidation and any close below 9843 will create doubts in my mind. 2. At the same time, I think, the lower end of the range is close or discovered. And NIFTY now should make attempt again towards 10200. 3. I'll wait to see action on Friday and Monday to see if NIFTY goes and takes out 9800-9843 levels. So for today, who could have imagined the kind of day NIFTY had today? It was volatile roller coaster ride from 9560 to 9995. Anyone who thinks any human being can predict the market, should periodically check the price action today. It has the potential to make even the best oracle feel humble. Overall, NIFTY did not close below 9843, so I do not have doubts about my view. It is confirmed that now the ride is towards the other extreme of the range, that is 10200-10300 zone. This is confirmed, and mostly Monday will confirm to the same view. My trades today: 1. First let me say, that I was able to manage my credit spread and got out of the same without any loss. 2. Then when opening range was broken out I bought 9700 CALL and sold it for profit near end of the day. Buying CALL is little different from my usual trading ways, but there were two strong reasons form that 1) Today was Friday, so gain by theta is not very important. 2) CALL enabled me to limit downside risk, in case NIFTY had continued on gap down. My observations for the day: 1. NIFTY formed large candle with gain of 0.72% 2. BANK NIFTY closed 0.63% 3. INDIA VIX swung from 10% to 3%. 4. Advance Decline ratio is 29 to 20. 5. From option data, 9600-9700 is a strong support. Resistance at 10000 level. I am not going to take this action as bullish or bearish, but I am going to assume range first of 9800 - 10300. When it breaks out / down, next leg of trade will be clear. Currently there is higher probability of breaking above 10300 looks more probable. For more, please go through my last weeks view and monthly view. My view posted on June 07 for the week gone by My monthly view posted start of this month I plan to do detailed post over the weekend for next weeks preview.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
1
Trade Log NIFTY June 11In my Trade log yesterday, I blogged 1. Today was a typical consolidation day. Nothing much to read about for me. 2. IF NIFTY goes below 10020 tomorrow, it has not still found lower boundary of the range. 3. If NIFTY moves fast towards 10280, there could be failure of that bounce in 10300 area. 4. I assume 9900 to 10300 range for tomorrows expiry. The range was breath taking close , but NIFTY managed to hold above 9900. I am still assuming this move as range formation / consolidation. My trades today. 1. Very simple trading day today. I sold 10100 CALL when previous day low was taken out, then closed it near end of the day for profit. My observations for the day 1. NIFTY closed in red, 2.12% below. 2. BANK NIFTY in red as well with 2.72% loss. 3. VIX increased marginally 0.76% 4. Market breadth weak. 668 to 1134 across market and 6 to 44 for NIFTY. 5. Open Interest data shows balance of power between buyers and seller. But 10000-10300 resistance zone further strengthened. My view for next sessions. 1. I'll continue to assume this is consolidation and any close below 9843 will create doubts in my mind. 2. At the same time, I think, the lower end of the range is close or discovered. And NIFTY now should make attempt again towards 10200. 3. I'll wait to see action on Friday and Monday to see if NIFTY goes and takes out 9800-9843 levels. Idea for next week. 1. I have created 10200/10000 Credit PUT spread. I was able to create this for 140 Rs Credit today. Idea would be to expect NIFTY chasing back to the upper end of the range.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
1
Trade Log NIFTY June 9In my trade log for Yesterday, I had said 1. NIFTY has started consolidation. I am going to assume consolidation at least tomorrow morning session till noon. 2. In this consolidation, there are two possibilities - 1. Simple dip 2. Formation of range couple of days. To understand and confirm one of these we need conclusive break of last breakout level 10160-10180, preferably on hourly chart. If this happens NIFTY can also head to last swing low of 9950 in the process. 3. I am inclined to believe, there will be range formation. 4. NIFTY traders are uncertain about 10300 Level. There will be couple of attempts around that level. 5. Broader market performing well, can be taken as positive or negative. If bad quality stocks performing today, then it could be some retail inflows, which may signify not much upside left in the current swing. But these kind of indicators are at the best very weak indicators. From these points, I feel confident 1. NIFTY is in consolidation. It is likely to see some downside tomorrow as well. 2. This is not a simple dip, This is likely to form range. 3. 10300 is firm resistance, any upside is possible only above that. 4. NIFTY is now searching for lower end of the range - first candidate for that is last swing low 9950. My trades today: 1. Morning session, I reluctantly took long, but covered it quickly on first sign of weakness. 2. Then I sold 10100 call, which turned out to clean trending trade. I closed the same around end of the day. Observations for the day 1. The cut on NIFTY little more deeper for consolidation. NIFTY closed 1.19% down. 2. BANK NIFTY closed -2.18% down. 3. INDIA VIX closed 1.8% up. 4. Advance Decline on negative side. 13 advances to 27 Declines. Broader market little better with 757 to 1135. 5. RELIANCE market leader for the current swing showed loss of momentum. 6. Option Data showing resistance shifting at lower levels 10100. My readings for tomorrow 1. Not much changed in my view. I need to wait and see how NIFTY reacts to 9950 level. Overall I still treat this as consolidation. 2. One thing for sure, that the breakout of 10170 is now negated and 10333 is strong resistance zone. 3. Idea would be to keep shorts till NIFTY closes above 9280. 4. As long as 9800 level is protected, I'll continue to believe this is just a consolidation.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
2
Trade Log NIFTY June 8Today is the start of new week. My trades today: 1. When NIFTY chopped around low of the opening range, I sensed that this likely to be consolidation day. I shorted 10300 CALL and exited for profit on first sign of bounce. 2. I sold credit put spreads on both sides as per my weekly plan. My weekly plan is here My observations for the day. 1. Lot of expectations because of US markets, but NIFTY could not follow through after gap up. It formed a weak candle with 0.25% gain. 2. BANK NIFTY also running into resistance area and closed 0.73%. 3. VIX gained 3.37% 4. Advance Decline ratio 1264 to 574. Broader market performed really well. For NIFTY it is 25 to 25. Neutral. 5. Open Interest addition confirms the consolidation. Highest Open Interest addition on 10800 CALL side. My reading for the market 1. NIFTY has started consolidation. I am going to assume consolidation at least tomorrow morning session till noon. 2. In this consolidation, there are two possibilities - 1. Simple dip 2. Formation of range couple of days. To understand and confirm one of these we need conclusive break of last breakout level 10160-10180, preferably on hourly chart. If this happens NIFTY can also head to last swing low of 9950 in the process. 3. I am inclined to believe, there will be range formation. 4. NIFTY traders are uncertain about 10300 Level. There will be couple of attempts around that level. 5. Broader market performing well, can be taken as positive or negative. If bad quality stocks performing today, then it could be some retail inflows, which may signify not much upside left in the current swing. But these kind of indicators are at the best very weak indicators.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 3In my trade log for June 2, I had said 1. Tomorrow will be the 6th day of higher highs. NIFTY closed near high of the day and just below strong psychological level 10000. 2. If there are positive global clues, NIFTY can create massive gap and short covering. There is not much overhead resistance till 10383 - 10400. 3. The other thing that I sense is mostly it can do similar thing some consolidation below 10000 and eventually breaking it. 4. Considering BANKNIFTY chart, I am more towards quick break and then continuation of rally on Thursday. No points in invalidated and I still hold my view. NIFTY is racing towards 10380-10400 Levels. But today, It did not go that far. My trades today 1. I sold 10100 CALL and squared it for loss. This was going to be difficult trade, but considering overbought context i took it. 2. But the 10200 CALL worked and actually helped to close my day flat. My observations for today 1. NIFTY closed 0.83% higher and formed small indecision candle with gap up. 2. BANKNIFTY closed 2% higher, but candle was showing the tiredness of this rally. 3. VIX fell -0.24%. So mostly VIX is also needs some breather from action. 4. NSE Advance Decline ratio is 34 to 16. My view for tomorrow 1. Tomorrow is weekly expiry. Overall there are some tiredness signs visible for the rally, but I still wont short it tomorrow. 2. Tomorrow will be 7th day. I think there is one more push remaining for NIFTY in current swing before consolidation. 3. I'll mostly wait on sideline, and not take much bets in first half of the day.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 02In my June 1 update, I had said 1. As NIFTY approached 9900, VIX rose and there was strong resistance in the zone. I believe this zone will be tested a couple of times in intra day movement before breaking above. 2. There is not much space for long trade until we clear the resistance zone and close above 9930. 3. I think NIFTY will form a consolidation range under 9930 and try breaking out. I need to watch how low it can go to form the lower boundary of the range. 4. 9700 should be a good candidate level lower boundary. In short, my reading was OK. I anticipated the consolidation to last atleast for couple of days. But NIFTY broke out of 9930, and range is not formed, It took support in 9800 area. My trades today 1. I squared my 9900 CALL for loss start of the day. This was a big loss. 2. When 2nd touch of resistance was touched, I sold 9900 CALL and covered that quickly for profit one first sign of strength. 3. Then on breakout I sold 9900 PUT and covered it for profit end of the day. My observations for the day 1. This rally has its 5th positive day. Today NIFTY closed with 1.5% gain. 2. BANK NIFTY outperformed and closed 2.86%. BANK NIFTY closed right at the key level of 20530. 3. INDIA VIX closed 30.12, 2% down 4. Advance Decline ration was ok 36:14, Not as strong as it could be. But BANKNIFTY can drag it along. My view for tomorrow 1. Tomorrow will be the 6th day of higher highs. NIFTY closed near high of the day and just below strong psychological level 10000. 2. If there are positive global clues, NIFTY can create massive gap and short covering. There is not much overhead resistance till 10383 - 10400. 3. The other thing that I sense is mostly it can do similar thing some consolidation below 10000 and eventually breaking it. 4. Considering BANKNIFTY chart, I am more towards quick break and then continuation of rally on Thursday.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think