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Trade Log NIFTY May 29First, I'll start with the review of my yesterdays post. Yesterday, I had posted my view and some important levels that I use on the chart. I had said 1) Trend is up on daily time frame. Weekly trend is up, provided we dont have huge down on Friday. I think NIFTY will gain / consolidate tomorrow. 2) Tomorrow strategy will be to see the consolidation rage. But I wont carry any near the money positions into next week. And I had marked levels on the chart, which I used in my trading decisions today.Both points were quite obvious. Good thing, market played out to the levels wells. This is no guarantee, sometimes market coincides with your point of view by chance. My trades today 1) I sold 9500 CALLs around first resistance and closed it at weak support level of the day. 2) Then when high of the day was tested multiple times, it was broken and I sold 9500 PUT which I squared off. 3) Since INDIA VIX is around 30, I attempted to take few overnight positions. I sold some 9900 CALL options. Lets see how it goes. Its risky. My observations of the day 1) NIFTY closed positive for the third day in a row. 0.95% for today and around 6.4% in 3 days. 2) NIFTY is now in kind of uncharted territory. Less price action in 9500 - 9900 has very less price history in last 2 months. 3) BANK NIFTY unperformed and did not make new high like nifty. 4) INDIA VIX increased little. 5) Advance Decline ratio 36 to 14. I dont have conclusions, as I have I would like to wait till Monday to have clear view. I'll also post detailed weekly review coming weekend. But from days action 1) BANK NIFTY is not leading the rise. So it may cause NIFTY;s momentum some consolidation and ranges. 2) Overall trend is up and typical bear market rallies are fast. 3) So far this rally has not give any gaps, so next week some surprise gaps can start occurring.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
6
Trade Log NIFTY May 28First, I'll start with reviewing my yesterdays post I had said 1. I''ll trade light tomorrow and see how we consolidate, what kind of range we form. 2. I'll wait till Friday, or may be Monday, to really changing strategy clearly on long side. But obviously now Bias is on long side as long as we are above 9000. As per plan, I traded light and also stopped trading around 1.30PM My trades today: 1) This trade was pretty simple. I sold 9400 PUT on open and waited for first sign of weakness. 2) Then when there was failure to continue, I sold 9400 CALL and then squared near bottom of the range. My Observations today: 1) Expiry day today. NIFTY gained 1.88% 2) BANKNIFTY gained 2.45% 3) INDIA VIX fell 4% 4) Advance Decline is 42 to 8. Broader market 1245 to 531. So it was broad based buying. 5) For next week, Option data shows bullish bets, Highest OI at 9000 and 9500. My reading of the price action. 1) Trend is up on daily time frame. Weekly trend is up, provided we dont have huge down on Friday. I think NIFTY will gain / consolidate tomorrow. 2) Tomorrow strategy will be to see the consolidation rage. But I wont carry any near the money positions into next week. I have also marked important levels tomorrow.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
1
Trade log NIFTY May 27In my yesterdays note, I had said 1. I had said , "Tuesdays price action should be taken as indicative of trend forward". I believe in that and till expiry, there could be down trend continuation. 2. I am not sure if 9000 will hold. 8970 - 8940 is key support region, if this fails, the bias is on short side. 3. Again 9150 - 8950 is the range we are looking at. I am not going to sell options around this range, as this is expiry week and there can be surprises. But trade will come when breakout of the range happens. I was wrong on my Tuesday reading referred in point 1. Point 2 is invalidated for some time. For point 3, it helped me as I did not sold options overnight. And today NIFTY and BANK NIFTY created large move. My trades today : First I closed my yesterdays trade of buying PUT option for loss, as there was no follow through for down movement. Then I made number of trades all for decent profit and as per plan. My profit was limited, because I had 9200 as target in mind and did not traded much after that. BANKNIFTY actually offered much clear opportunity on charts. I'll post that separately as it turned out very nicely. My observations for the day : 1. NIFTY made big candle after consolidation. 2. Today is a day before monthly expiry. 3. BANKNIFTY outperformed and closed 7%+ 4. INDIA VIX fell less than a percent. 5. Index breadth was positive, 41 to 9 but overall breadth was OK, 1059 to 712 6. NIFTY closed above 10,20,30 and 50 day simple moving average. So overall clear trend day. The only suspicious things are 1) VIX did not fell heavily. That means, NIFTY has to consolidate to keep this gains and make it a new swing. 2) Timing of today's rally. Near expiry so, I wont go all in. My reading 1) I''ll trade light tomorrow and see how we consolidate, what kind of range we form. 2) I'll wait till Friday, or may be Monday, to really changing strategy clearly on long side. But obviously now Bias is on long side as long as we are above 9000.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY May 26My trades today 1. When initial gap up failed to cross 9160, I sold 9200 CALL, which I covered later in the day. 2. Since today's price action was very weak, I bought 9100 PUT for 4th June Expiry. Stop Loss for this is 9160. What I observe for today is 1) Starting the day, there was lot of positive global clues. Asian Markets and DOW higher 1%+. But NIFTY failed to keep the gains and closed in red. 2) BANK NIFTY was better than NIFTY , but weak. 3) Advance Decline ratio positive 31:19 4) VIX fell by 2.8% 5) 9000 is the key level from Option Chain. Overall my conclusion is 1) I had said , "Tuesdays price action should be taken as indicative of trend forward". I believe in that and till expiry, there could be down trend continuation. 2) I am not sure if 9000 will hold. 8970 - 8940 is key support region, if this fails, the bias is on short side. Again 9150 - 8950 is the range we are looking at. I am not going to sell options around this range, as this is expiry week and there can be surprises. But trade will come when breakout of the range happens.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Long Gamestop Inverse Head and Shoulders GME Fail Neckline BreakGamestop is set to rally ahead of earnings . Gamestop has never been this cheap since 2003 and it is has a much stronger brand name recognition than before. Earning estimate is -.35, but Gamestop $GME was one last non essential stores set to close in March. With gaming stocks on a rampage, Gamestop is expected to beat expectations. It is a quarantine stock and a economy re-opening stock since it has generate huge revenues through its online sales. Inverse head and shoulder with a strong bounce off of the throwback. Smart bears closed shorts at the inverse head. Bears looking to short this under $4 will help with the short squeeze when $eBay breaks to all time highs. This has the same setup as Zoom $ZM.
NYSE:GMELong
by FleurdelisFX
2
Trade Log NIFTY May 22My trades today. I stayed away from the market for morning session becuase of RBI event. Later when NIFTY broke below 9000, I sold 9100 CALL which I squared off for loss. In my last post I had said 1. I am reluctant to jump on either sides for long term future. For tomorrow, I maintain my bullish bias in NIFTY . 2. I'll change my view when NIFTY drops below 9030-9000 zone. 3. I think tomorrows day may decide the trend for next week. For point 1, Now I am not sure about bullish bias as NIFTY closed below 9050, but did not fell with momentum. For point 2, Yet to change my side. For point 3, I was wrong anticipating today as decider day. From the price action today 1. NIFTY lost -0.74%, BANKNIFTY closed deep in red -2.57%. 2. VIX fell by another -1.84% 3. NIFTY and BANK NIFTY both candles are weak. 4. Advance Decline ratio is 24 to 26. Neutral. I plan to do a detailed post over the weekend about the weekly view, But what I can say, I am very reluctant to go short in this market. I dont know if we can get a decent bounce with momentum, but overall downside looks very slow and weak.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
3
ANALYSIS ON NZDJPYHello my fellow traders, hope you all are making some profits. We are here with our new analysis so that we can increase those profits for you. Let’s get into the analysis.           As we can see, the price hit its resistance and it is going down. One can place a sell stop at 65.850/800 Let us know your views on this in the comment section. Thank you all.          There is good news for our followers. We will be analyzing on-demand. So let us know which pair you want our analysis on and we will get it for you. Do like and follow us.           Ryan.R..Lopes
by Ryan_lopes
Trade Log NIFTY May 21My trades today. 1) I had entered credit spread (Sell 9000 Put / Buy 8800 Put) for 71 rs. This expired in full profit. 2) Then as NIFTY was consolidating in the range, made a risky reversal trade and quickly got out. I sold 9100 call and covered it. 3) On breakout of 9145 I was able to Sell 9200 PUT and and squared it around resitance. This turned out to be good decision as NIFTY fell after that. I did not trade after that because NIFTY unexpectedly moved down around 2.30. In my last post I had said 1. I think, some kind of sustainable pullback may have started. It needs confirmation by holding up tomorrow. 2. Another confirmation signal is BANK NIFTY makes higher high. For confirmation of bottom, I would wait till Friday EOD . 3. Obviously, this pullback does not change long term picture right now. But now intra-day bias is clearly shifted to bullish side. 4. VIX dropping dramatically at 8800 support level , means NIFTY may make 8800 as base for this pullback rally. For point 1, NIFTY confirmed by staying in green. For point 2, BANK NIFTY may be looking bad, but managed to form higher high and higher low for daily candle today. I maintain that I'll wait till Friday for another confirmation on pullback rally. For point 3, intra-day bias is on bullish side till NIFTY is above 9000. For point 4, VIX again dropped, expiry day effect as well. But still one more confirmation about 8800 support for pullback rally. From the price action today 1. NIFTY gained, BANKNIFTY closed in red. drop in bank NIFTY sudden after 2.30. 2. VIX fell by another 8%. 3. NIFTY and BANK NIFTY both candles are weak. 4. Advance Decline ratio is 30 to 20. OK. not great. From this action my reading for Friday. 1. I am reluctant to jump on either sides for long term future. For tomorrow, I maintain my bullish bias in NIFTY. 2. I'll change my view when NIFTY drops below 9030-9000 zone. 3. I think tomorrows day may decide the trend for next week.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
ANALYSIS ON GBPCADHello my fellow traders, hope you all are making some profits. We are here with our new analysis so that we can increase those profits for you. Let’s get into the analysis.           As we can see, the price is at very crucial point. Wait for a breakout.   Let us know your views on this in the comment section. Thank you all.          There is good news for our followers. We will be analyzing on-demand. So let us know which pair you want our analysis on and we will get it for you. Do like and follow us.           Ryan.R..Lopes    
by Ryan_lopes
Trade Log NIFTY May 20My trades Today 1. I sold 8900 PUT today as market opened with positive bias. When It faced rejection at 9000, I squared off the position. I was profited because IV dropped. 2. Then there was a consolidation in tight range. Since there was no follow through on short side after rejection, I was confident of selling credit spread. I'll let it expire/ close tomorrow. 3. Then on breakout of the range, I bought CALL and squared it off near EOD. In my Trade log post for May 19, I had said 1. Global news not helping, NIFTY is showing strength, but BANK NIFTY bearish . On BANK NIFTY chart, 17150 - 16700 is a support zone . This will be second touch of the zone, hence it can build support here. That means 8800 can be touched again, or even breached. 2. I don't expect NIFTY to go below 8600. 3. Also, I don't think 8800 is a bottom, on next touch, it may not hold, at least breached once. In this, point 2 is certainly confirmed. For point 3 I think there are chances that 8800 may be bottom for near term and pullback rally starts from here. Observations about price action today 1.NIFTY gained in the first few hours. It maintained the gains and consolidated in tight range. And then gained even more in second session. Closed 2.11% up. 2.BANK NIFTY supported 2.11% 3.VIX down 9%+ 4.Advance Decline ratio 42 to 8. 5. NIFTY formed higher low and higher high. BANK NIFTY did not form new low. For next 2 days, 1. I think, some kind of sustainable pullback may have started. It needs confirmation by holding up tomorrow. 2. Another confirmation signal is BANK NIFTY makes higher high. For confirmation of bottom, I would wait till Friday EOD. 3. Obviously, this pullback does not change long term picture right now. But now intra-day bias is clearly shifted to bullish side. 4. VIX dropping dramatically at 8800 support level, means NIFTY may make 8800 as base for this pullback rally.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
1
Trade Log NIFTY May 19My trades today: 1. Due to positive global cues, I expected positive day today. Hence I sold 8700 PUT in first 15 minutes, with stop below yesterday's close. 2. When opening range was sustained and downward trend line break happened I sold 8900 PUT. 3. Around 11, NIFTY was already 2.43% up and started showing signs of momentum loss, that is candles with long tails. Hence existed both the positions at profit. 4. Then when opening range high of the day was broken decisively on second attempt, intra-day trend turned. Hence I sold 9200 CALL, which I later covered around bottom of the opening range. Review of price action today: I observe 1. Following global cues, NIFTY opened gap up, but could not sustain gap. 2. BANK NIFTY closed negative, while NIFTY closed positive. 3. INDIA VIX fell 3.5% 4. NIFTY Advance Decline was 36:14, which broader market Advance Decline was not good 781 to 980. 5. Inside candle formed after large bearish candle yesterday. My view for next tomorrow and Thursday 1. Global news not helping, NIFTY is showing strength, but BANK NIFTY bearish. On BANK NIFTY chart, 17150 - 16700 is a support zone. This will be second touch of the zone, hence it can build support here. That means 8800 can be touched again, or even breached. 2. I don't expect NIFTY to go below 8600. 3. Also, I don't think 8800 is a bottom, on next touch, it may not hold, at least breached once.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY May 18Trades today: Simple trending day. I sold 9100 Call and covered it in few hours as first support appeared. Review of the Price Action Today In my weekly view I had said 1. NIFTY is likely to stay below 9450. 9000 is important psychological level and in the support zone . I wont short NIFTY aggressively till it closes below 8800. 2. I do not expect NIFTY to end below 8500-8600 this month. 3. Intra-day movement can be confusing in this zone. Trading light and exiting quickly is required. Nothing of this is confirmed so far. But we closed below 9000 today and that was a psychological level. For today's price action, 1. Global markets were in positive. European markets are around 1.5% up. Still NIFTY down 3%. 2. BANK Nifty fell 6.69% 3. Market breadth extremely weak. 4. VIX rose 7%. Overall it was a classic downtrend day with all things lining up. 1. NIFTY is trending down on all time-frames. 2. Today's low is unlikely to be bottom, there will be new low. 3. 8800 Level is the support where NIFTY can attempt to bounce but it should not bought. 4. Below 8800, there is no significant support till 8500.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
2
Trade Log NIFTY May 15About my trades today I made two trades today. 1. NIFTY formed initial red candle taking it below 9130. I shorted 9300 CALL on retest and squared on first sign of weakness. 2. Since NIFTY was not breaking 9050 , last low, I took reversal trade and squared it off before EOD on first spurt. Overall, I followed the plan and price action and it was not a crazy day! Yesterday I had said , 1. NIFTY is again in the lower bound of the range, It is likely to go below 9130 and then down to earlier lows around 8800. 2. This fall may not be steep or with momentum. It can be another range bound movement in 9350 - 8800 area. Point 1 turned to be true today. The second point , I have to see. But the selling was definitely lacking momentum. I observe the following points about today's market action 1. NIFTY did not break the last low of 9050. 2. The close was just on the important support line of 9130. 3. VIX fell little -0.43% 4. Advance Decline is 23 to 27, neutral. 5. NIFTY reversed but could not close/touch above high of the day. Overall I think next week in news driven week, and if there is no news NIFTY is likely to continue towards 8800 in slow fashion. I shall do a detailed weekly update over the weekend!
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
2
Trade Log NIFTY May 14About Trades today: 1. I sold 9600 CALLS intended to expire. Since market opened gap down, I did not sell PUTS. 2. Opening range of 15 Mins was broken , but could not sustain, hence I enetred the trade sell 9300 CALL intended to covered on touch other end of the range. 3. On touch of range , 9200 PUT of next week expiry was entered , but it was lacking strength, and sold before 1.30 4. When the range broke down, I sold 9200 CALL of next week expiry and closed the position around EOD. In my notes yesterday I had said, 1. Somewhere market players are doing the maths and estimating that the impact of stimulus in the short term is minimal. Otherwise the range breakout would have been sustained. 2. The series of FM conferences will create some sector specific action, but overall stimulus bounce is behind us. 3. Since we are on the top bound of the range, the obvious bias is to again short till we breakout the range, that is close above 9450. It turned out to be true. NIFTY actually swung back near to the other end of the range. I have the following observations about today's price action 1. NIFTY gap down near support area 9200, but after initial bounce, it did not show any buying. 2. VIX fell 1.68% 3. Advance Decline ratio is very weak 40:10 4. BANK NIFTY under performed . It fell -2.88%. It also just filled the gap, did not fell further like NIFTY, so overall, it has better performance if we combine yesterdays move. 5. Tech sector weakened today based on US news flow. All this means 1. NIFTY is again in the lower bound of the range, It is likely to go below 9130 and then down to earlier lows around 8800. 2. This fall may not be steep or with momentum. It can be another range bound movement in 9350 - 8800 area.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
4