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Trade Log NIFTY May 11About trades today. I sold 9300 PUT as there was a gap up opening above 9350. This position is trapped. I squared off the position for loss. I also squared off my positions from Friday. I hold 9500 CALL. That position is open. NIFTY Opened gap up above 9350 and sustained there for some time, like 30 minutes. But then it was straight down day. So 9340-9440 is a hard to break resistance zone. I have the following observations about today's price action 1. NIFTY has opened gap up and closed the gap. This has happened 3rd time in last 5 days. 2. NIFTY showed follow through on the downside after breaking below 9350. 3. VIX fell little less than a percent. 5. Advance Decline ratio 30:20 , on positive side. 5. BANK Nifty fell down 2%, mostly due to ICICI Bank I read this action as 1. I assume now some momentum is gathered. If NIFTY breaks below 9130, this fall will touch 9000 region.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY May 8About trades today. I sold 9200 PUT as there was a gap up opening. This position is trapped. I bought 9000 PUT to reduce overnight risk. I also sold 9600 CALL as NIFTY crossed 9330 below. Booked Profit in that position. I sold 9500 CALL when NIFTY crossed below 9300. That position is open. In my May 6 Log I had said 1. I think NIFTY may open gap down or little negative and move towards 9000. 2. Until we close above 9300, it is better to stay on short side. 3. Gap up opening is possible only when there is some positive global news. In that case, need to wait for close above 9350. Review : NIFTY did not gap down, instead gap up. But it did not sustain over 9350. It did not close above 9300. I have the following observations about today's price action 1. With Morning gap up, range was broken, but it turned out to be false breakout of 9350. 2. NIFTY consolidated in the tight range of 9300 and 9330 for morning hours and finally broke down below 9300. 3. In sell off below 9300, there was no momentum. Many bars are overlapping and with tails. 4. VIX fell little 3.81% 5. Advance Decline ratio 28:22 , neutral. 5. BANK Nifty fell down more and closed in negative, -0.7% I read this action as 1. Trend is negative but momentum is lacking on downside. Considering uncertainty, this may continue going forward for some time. 2. Sometime soon, NIFTY will try to touch other boundary of the range , that is 9130, I'll do a detailed post for weekly review for the week over the weekend.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
1
Trade Log NIFTY May 7 In my yesterday's market review, I had said 1. Tomorrow is expiry day. I wont take tomorrows action, especially sharp move if any as indication of further trend. 2. Mostly indecisive day today, so we have to see in which direction the NIFTY moves further. I do not have any bias going in tomorrow. 3. But if I have to build some view, then I think it'll be uneventful expiry (9300 +- 50) tomorrow, if there is no news flow tonight. Point 3, around uneventful expiry turned to be correct. The expiry happened around 9200 with lot of chopping moves. I have the following observations about today's price action 1. Market was very choppy and formed indecisive candle, which is inside candle as well. 2. The action around 9200 -9230, It was a narrow range action - no trade possible. 3. Bank NIFTY also traded in very narrow range. 4. Breadth was bad. 11 Advances and 29 declines. 4. Option writers again going in with 9000 as lower limit and then 9300 upwards calls were written. All this means 1. Trend is negative. and market paused today. 2. Sometime soon, may be tomorrow, there will be expansion of the range. On downside till 9000. And for upside, first NIFTY needs to build above 9350. For tomorrow, 1. I think NIFTY may open gap down or little negative and move towards 9000. 2. Until we close above 9300, it is better to stay on short side. 3. Gap up opening is possible only when there is some positive global news. In that case, need to wait for close above 9350.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY May 5 In my yesterdays review, I made the following points 1. This fall now wont be as unidirectional and steep as the March fall. 2. There will be choppiness with negative bias. 3. 8300 is not short term bottom. 4. The first bounce if any tomorrow will likely to fail. Point 3 and 4 were confirmed by today's price action. I have the following observations about today's price action 1. VIX did not dropped significantly. This means this continuation did not surprise or created fear. 2. The sell off after 1.30 was steep. And there is no climax action today. 3. Bank NIFTY under performed severely. 4. Breadth was not too bad considering the points lost, but banks contributed to the losses. 4. Option writers consider 9400 -9500 unbreakable by May 7. All this means 1. Trend is confirmed as negative. 2. This drop in now entering the choppiness zone of last rise, 9000 - 9150, This is likely to offer first support if any. For tomorrow, 1. Today NIFTY did opened with positive global clues but could not sustain. I expect some gap down opening if there are even mildly negative news. 2. I do not have clear idea, but my hunch is tomorrow again will be a down day with mostly some support discovery around 9050-9150 region.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
1
Trade Log NIFTY May 4NIFTY opened large gap down and trended down with no major pullback. 1. VIX shot up 28% 2. Bank NIFTY under performed. 3. Broke below last important support area of 9400. 4. Also broke the support line of rising wedge. 6. Breadth was highly negative 424 Advances : 1399 Declines. All this indicates the following 1. Trend is changed to negative, 2. This is definitely second leg of the fall that started in Feb-March. But looking at the conditions , news flow etc 1. This fall now wont be as unidirectional and steep as the March fall. 2. There will be choppiness with negative bias. 3. 8300 is not short term bottom. 4. The first bounce if any tomorrow will likely to fail. I made small intra-day trade today for profit. I have also created Credit Spread for this week between 9300 - 9100. Because I think NIFTY will have some consolidation over 9000.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY April 30Expiry day today. Gap up is huge and there is very little chance for me to participate any trade. Still scalped small profit. Few Observations for today: 1. Bank NIFTY initially surged but closed around Low of the day. 2. Advance and Decline ratio is not great. 3. This market surged in straight line from 9270 to 9860. This is 600 points rise in 2.5 days. 4. VIX has not fallen today. Till we cross 10000 - 10500 zone, we are still in large down move. Hence I'll be careful of going long till this view invalidates. Considering this background, May month may start volatile. Mostly on downside.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY April 29NSE:NIFTY broke out of the range today. 1. I squared off trapped call positions for loss. 2. On breakout, sold 9500 PUTS which were squared off profit. Some ideas from the price action today. ------------------------------------------------------------ Today may be much awaited start of the breakout. The strength of the breakout is pretty strong. But one thing to be noted is This breakout still need to be confirmed by spending couple of days more building on this strength and staying above 9400. The overall market breadth was not very strong. 38 Advances and 12 declines. Since large move is made today, tomorrow we may have consolidation. Once again remember overall view on monthly time frame , This is just a first meaningful bounce which can fail anytime. So better to stay light on long positions.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think