Generating Income from NVDA ConsolidationDescription
NVDA has seen consistent gains following the upside break of its descending intermediate trendline on 17JAN. Now it seems to have settled into a consolidation pattern (Ascending Triangle) following the event-related runaway gap up through an ATH on 25May. Ascending triangles represent a healthy demand for a stock with a planned distribution at a particular price, which appears to be 480, and now we are now seeing the second rejection of the upper boundary of the pattern @482.
At the same time, DIA, SPY and IXIC have all seen retests and rejections of their 50D EMAs today. In general, I expect the continued fall in the indexes to keep NVDA in consolidation, despite consistent earnings outperformance.
Technical Indicators to signal the entry:
Ascending Wedge upper boundary second rejection.
Technical Risk Factors:
MACD 12 over 26 bullish cross
The expected price is <482 until breakout of the pattern.
I will be using short dated call credit spreads to:
Limit upside risk while maintaining a neutral position
take advantage of skewed earnings IV
Call Credit Spread
Levels on Chart
SL: 482 / or a minor that does not reach the ascending trendline at the bottom of the pattern
PT: <482
TP: @ expirations
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
8/25 487.5C
SELL
8/25 482.5C
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
I warrant that the information created and published by me on TradingView is not prohibited, doesn't constitute investment advice, and isn't created solely for qualified investors.
Callcreditspread
MRNA Support Bounce Weekly Option PlayDescription
Today saw MRNA performing a high-volume bounce from the 224 support line which initiated the start of what appears to be a rough Descending Triangle.
I am bearish on MRNA for the longer term, but expect this upward move to continue throughout the week, along with the rest of the indexes that have seen a strong bounce today.
At the least, I am expecting a move up to touch the converging 50/200D EMA lines, and looking for a max expected move in the time frame of one week up to the higher strike @ 257.5 to take profits.
If the move is strong enough, we will let the position trade late into Friday to allow the spread to widen out to max profit potential, but I am willing to close the position early.
Using a call credit spread to reduce the price and due to expectations of an IV decrease throughout the week.
Call Credit Spread
Levels on Chart
SL: 224
PT : 257.5
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
1/14 235C
SELL
1/14 257.5C
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
If you can afford it, and have the conviction in the direction of MRNA, I would opt for a Call in conjunction with a Put Credit Spread. This will allow you realize profits much sooner in the case of a meteoric rise such as the one that occurred from 18 - 26 November.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
GM Weekly Options PlayDescription
GM Huge supply line right at the previous ATH, 64. I was initially looking for a break and close over this line for a long entry, but this is a solid rejection for a credit spread.
Call Credit Spread
By Expiration
Max loss occurs at any strike over the long call (66)
Max gain occurs at any strike under the short call (64)
SL > 340
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/19 66C
SELL
11/19 64C
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
Looking to make 30% return on collateral in 1 week.
The short call is placed at previous ATH for good balance of success and profit.
The long call is placed 2 points away IAW collateral requirements, risk tolerance, and R/R.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
MSFT Weekly Options PlayDescription
MSFT cooling off of ATH. Looking to take advantage of this by selling some TVP on the end-of-month contracts.
MACD looking to cross
Call Credit Spread
Levels on Chart
SL > 340
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/26 345C
SELL
11/26 340C
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
Looking to make 18% return on collateral in 2 weeks.
The short call is placed above previous ATH for good balance of potential success and maximum profit.
The long call is placed 5 points away IAW collateral requirements and risk tolerance.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
TSLA Weekly Options PlayDescription
TSLA has to stop at some point, right? Risk here is limited by time, 1 DTE to make a couple points.
Call Credit Spread
Levels on Chart
SL > 1250
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/05 1260C
SELL
11/05 1250C
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill, super tight trade though, risking 1000 to make ~200-300.
The short call is placed close to the money for higher profit.
The long call is placed 10 points away based off of collateral requirements and risk tolerance.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
LYFT Wedge Break Weekly Options PlayDescription
LYFT has been working this wedge since FEB of this year, and now we're starting to see a breakout to the upside.
A close > 53.5 triggers a long.
Using A call debit spread, because profits are always limited by time.
Call Debit Spread
Levels on Chart
SL is a daily close back in the wedge.
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/12 55C
SELL
11/12 62C
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
The long call is placed ATM for higher chance of profit,
The short call is placed at the previous peak in the wedge.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
MRNA Low Risk Short PositionMRNA is hillariously overbought, with stochastics, EMA's, bollingerbands, MACD, and RSI on the daily chart all showing prime conditions for a short position.
Here's the chart showing those indicators:
I am going to be watching this on Monday and throughout the week, looking for a short position entrance. I played it on Tuesday for a nice $50/ share short with similar technical indicators. Hoping to duplicate that again this week. Might go debit, might go credit, not entirely sure how I'll play this yet. IVR is somewhat high for a credit trade, and since they have earnings coming up, I imagine that will continue to increase. For that reason, a debit trade might be the winner here. That said, if IVR collapses, that will hurt my trade.
Still formulating the exact plan, but I am going to play MRNA short in some capacity.
I am anticipating a retracement to the $300.00 / level in the short term at $250.00 in the next few months.
NFLX Low Risk Short PositionNFLX has been trading in a range for many months, as we can see by this weekly chart here:
Stochastics on the daily chart are showing it as heavily overbought, with an RSI of about 85, likely in anticipation of earnings which come out in 6 days. Historically, NFLX sells off about 80% of the time post earnings, usually quite steeply, with an average sell-off of between $50-60 dollars within the week that follows earnings.
Here's a daily chart with stochastics visible:
Barring a few temporary outlying moves to the outer extremities of its range, I believe NFLX will either:
1) Push up towards and then reject at the $566 level and then retrace back down towards $515.00 post earnings.
2) Falter post earnings and retrace to more "typical" RSI and stochastic levels prior to earning hitting.
3) (Hopefully not) push outside its trading range (difficult to imagine this scenario actually happening) and form new highs above its existing range.
I am currently in an Iron Condor on NFLX with 570 and 490 short strikes. It is leaning bearish at the moment, but a move back down downwards 515 and a crush of implied volatility will substantially help my position. I believe both are likely to happen in the current market environment.
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If you were to enter NFLX short, you might consider it around the $566 level, assuming it pushes that high. You could accomplish this with a call credit spread which would give you the benefit of IV crush, assuming volatility decreases (which it would, if the price fell off steeply.)
You could also take a bearish debit spread, but that will struggle with volatility collapse as it's a BTO position.
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Whatever happens, I'll be curious to watch NFLX as it develops. I do not think it's current price behavior is sustainable.
Disney Short - Rejection of EMA's / Credit Spread TradeI am looking at entering a short position on Disney (DIS) via a call-credit spread because of a few criteria that are present within the chart. First and foremost, on the daily chart, there is a consistent downtrend present since March 8th of this year, characterized by constant rejections of the 10, 25, and 50 exponential moving averages.
I will be selling to open a vertical credit spread on the call side which will put theta in my favor and gave me negative delta. As such, my breakeven will continuously rise, and by expiration, I will hit full profit as long as DIS is anywhere below $180.00 / share.
The breakeven point throughout this trade is the blue ray that I've drawn from todays date up until my contract expiration, which is on July 16th.
STO - July 16th, 180 C
BTO - July 16th, 185 C
Greeks:
Delta: About -$14.00 as of 06/23/21
Theta: (Working for me) - $1.60
Stochastics are showing signs of life to the positive side, which is fine as I am scaling into my short position. Not particularly worried about a massive move upwards.
I am looking for a price target of $167.00-ish, but will take profits earlier if the need arises.
I will stop out above $180.00.
SPY play with 90% PoP!Hello, guys hope all is well. Today we will be looking at $SPY and how I will play the market this week.
Based on the expected move for this week of $6.79 we are possibly looking at a range between $410.01 - $423.59. On Monday I opened the Put side ($400 / $398 and collected $9 per contact) of my Iron Condor and leg into my Call side roughly Thursday afternoon or right before close.
Last week we saw a slight dip in the markets from Monday's open of $424.43 to Friday's close of $414.92. This 2.24% drop has made the $VIX pop to the $20 levels from the mid to high teens. With this pop, we will be able to take advantage in one of two ways.
1) We can keep our stricks the same as we did last week because we still believe that there is a lot of supply at this price and we want to collect more premium.
2)We will be able to get lower on the put side/higher on the call side while still collecting the same amount of premium as we did last week.
I will be going with the second option because although there may be supply at these levels I still want to sell the .10 - .05 deltas with a $2 widespread.
I'll be looking to collect between $8-$10 per contract on the put side give me roughly a 4% gain while also looking for the same percent gain on the Call side later on in the week. Since no additional collateral is needed to add the Call side, we are looking at a minimal gain of 8% if we stay in our expected range.
What’s The Best Vertical Spread Option Strategy?I’m Markus Heitkoetter and I’ve been an active trader for over 20 years.
I often see people who start trading and expect their accounts to explode, based on promises and hype they see in ads and e-mails.
They start trading and realize it doesn’t work this way.
The purpose of these articles is to show you the trading strategies and tools that I personally use to trade my own account so that you can grow your own account systematically.
Real money…real trades.
What’s The Best Vertical Spread Option Strategy?
You may have previously heard someone say, “ Vertical spreads are the same as getting weekly paychecks! “ Is that even true?
We’re going to go in-depth on each strategy to discuss each of the pros and cons.
I’m also going to discuss how each strategy should be used in any given market condition.
Since we’ve previously discussed credit spreads and debit spreads, you’re probably wondering… what’s the BEST vertical spread option strategy?
Let’s break down each of the vertical spread option strategies in detail and look at examples in Tasty Trade.
Call Debit Spread
What is a Call Debit Spread?
A call debit spread is a position in which you buy a call option and sell a call option at different strike prices using the same expiration date.
When should this strategy be used?
This strategy is used when you believe the stock is increasing in price, but not a dramatic movement.
What are the benefits of this strategy?
Trading this position can potentially reduce the overall cost associated with taking on the trade.
This type of strategy also reduces the break-even price of the trade.
When does this trade lose money?
When the underlying stock moves sideways or downward.
What is the max risk for this trade?
The max risk associated with this strategy is the cost of the premium paid to take on the trade.
What is the max reward for this trade?
The max reward for this strategy is the difference between the strike price of the two calls, multiplied by 100. Minus the premium paid to take on the trade.
Call Debit Spread Example
- Reduced Margin Requirement: $910
- Max Risk Reduced: $910
- Max Reward: $4090
Put Debit Spread
What is a Put Debit Spread?
A put debit spread is a position in which you buy a put option and sell a put option at different strike prices with the same expiration date.
When should this strategy be used?
This strategy is used when you believe the stock is decreasing in price.
What are the benefits of this strategy?
Trading this position can potentially reduce the overall cost associated with taking on the trade.
This type of strategy also lowers the break-even price of the trade.
When does this trade lose money? The underlying stock moves sideways or downward.
What is the max risk for this trade?
The max risk associated with this strategy is the cost of the premium paid to take on the trade.
What is the max reward for this trade?
The max reward for this strategy is the difference between the strike price of two calls, multiplied by 100.
Minus the premium paid to take on the trade.
Put Debit Spread Example
- Reduced Margin Requirement: $910
- Max Risk Reduced: $910
- Max Reward: $2090
Call Credit Spread
What is a Call Credit Spread?
A call credit spread is a position in which you sell a call option and buy a call option as protection.
These option contracts have different strike prices but have the same expiration date.
When should this strategy be used?
This strategy is used when you believe the stock is decreasing in price or trading sideways.
What are the benefits of this strategy?
Trading this position produces a credit from the premium received for selling the put option.
Buying the additional call option provides protection, limiting the risk of the trade.
When does this trade lose money?
This trade loses money when the underlying stock moves up quickly past your strike price.
What is the max risk for this trade?
The max risk associated with this strategy is the difference between the strike prices, multiplied by 100.
What is the max reward for this trade?
The max reward for this strategy is the premium received for selling the call option, minus the premium paid for protection.
Call Credit Spread Example
- Margin Requirement: $965
- Max Risk: $965
- Max Reward $35
- Premium Received: $35
Put Credit Spread
What is a Put Credit Spread?
A put spread is a position in which you sell a put option and buy a put option as protection.
These option contracts have different strike prices but have the same expiration date.
When should this strategy be used?
This strategy is used when you believe the stock is increasing in price or trading sideways.
What are the benefits of this strategy?
Trading this position produces a credit in the form of the premium received for selling the put option.
Buying the additional put option provides protection, limiting the risk of the trade.
When does this trade lose money?
The underlying stock moves downward sharply.
What is the max risk for this trade?
The max risk associated with this strategy is the difference between strike prices, multiplied by 100.
What is the max reward for this trade?
The max reward for this position is the premium received for selling the put option, minus the premium paid for protection.
Put Credit Spread Example
- Margin Requirement: $837
- Max Risk: $837
- Premium Received: $163
- Max Reward: $163
How Do I Choose The Best Vertical Spread Option Strategy?
I personally only select options that match my trading plan. You’ve probably heard me say it a million times if you’ve heard it once…
There are 3 things you need to know to be successful at trading.
1.) You need to know which options to trade
2.) You need to know when to enter
3.) You need to know when to exit
I use the PowerX Optimizer to help me execute these trades successfully.
SPY - Bearish VibesHey Traders, I usually don't like going against the grain... especially when the SPY has gained nearly 30 points this week alone. But my trader's intuition is telling me that it's moving too fast and I am starting to get bearish vibes. Taking a look the chart above, you can see that as of today, the SPY has moved across the Keltner Channelin a matter of 4 trading days. Looking at the past three times the SPY crossed across the Keltner Channel, it took an average of about 14 trading days, or roughly 3 weeks. Based on where SPY is trading today, my opinion is that SPY will attempt to break out above its recent resistance level of 354.00... but I don't think it will. SPY has over extended past its moving averages by so much that I think it will regress towards the 8 EMA. The stock market is pumped due to the election...but once the count is over... I think the bulls will be taking profits and selling the news.
Again, this is just my intuition and I could be wrong, but I am going to stick to my guns and flag this idea with a Short bias.
AAPL : still targeting 240 UPDATE 1I try to avoid chop zone trades (areas between supply and demand levels) but depending on price action today, may look to throw on a weekly call credit spread if price retraces back up to 250 supply level.
Still targeting 240 as primary area to look at entering long position. Know your risk! Don’t over trade!
AAL - Call Credit SpreadAfter AAL made a double bottom, it rallied to make a higher high and touched the 200 MA. Should've gotten into the rally. Missed it completely.
Anyways, AAL tried twice to breach 200 MA and failed twice.
Now it looks to be heading down to at least 27 or even further.
I'm already in a 31/32 Call Credit Spread @ $0.37 since Oct 30 which is now up 32% i.e. $0.25.
I'm going to take profit when AAL falls touches 27 or 50% of max profit is achieved on the spread i.e. spread is worth $0.18.