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Trump reshaping Canada’s election and Loonie Six weeks ago, a Conservative victory in the next Canadian election seemed inevitable. Now, that certainty is fading. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre's support from the American right, including Elon Musk, is becoming a potential liability as Canada faces an unprecedented challenge: the U.S. president openly questioning its viability as a nation, threatening tariffs, and even suggesting annexation. A recent Nanos poll shows 39.6% of Canadians see new Liberal leader Mark Carney as the most qualified to negotiate with Trump, compared to 26% for Poilievre. This uncertainty may be weighing on the Canadian dollar. USDCAD broke lower last week, falling below key support (1.4260 - 1.4466), signaling a shift toward sellers. However, the 1-hour chart shows a minor upward trendline defining the current pullback.
by BlackBull_Markets
The Tariff War: America, Mexico, Canada, and China Dear readers, my name is Andrea Russo, and I am a trader. Today, I want to talk to you about a significant shift that is shaking global markets: the United States has decided to freeze tariffs on Mexico and Canada, while China has introduced counter-tariffs. This strategic move is likely to have significant repercussions on international trade and global economic dynamics, with direct effects on currencies and the Forex market. Freezing Tariffs on Mexico and Canada: A Change in Strategy? Under the Biden administration, the United States has decided to freeze tariffs on Mexico and Canada, two vital trading partners. This move may seem like a de-escalation in the trade war, but it is actually an attempt to strengthen ties with neighboring countries, thus facilitating trade flow and stimulating the internal economy. With rising commodity prices and the ongoing energy crisis, Washington aims to avoid escalating tariffs that could further aggravate an already fragile economic situation. A Strategic Choice in an Unstable World Despite the good intentions, the global context remains uncertain. The decision to suspend tariffs is partly motivated by the need to slow down inflation and mitigate the negative effects on global supply chains, especially in North America. However, this could also be a signal that the United States is focusing on internal challenges before shifting its focus to a larger battle — the one with China. China’s Response: Counter-Tariffs and Retaliation On the other side, China has not delayed in responding by imposing new tariffs on U.S. goods, particularly in key sectors such as technology, agriculture, and automotive. These tariffs are expected to have a direct impact on U.S. companies that export to China but may also influence global trade dynamics. China has clearly made a strategic move, one that goes beyond economic revenge: it's a signal that Beijing is not willing to make concessions on an issue that is critical for its geopolitical standing. Impact on Financial Markets and Forex Now that we've outlined the key strategic moves, let's take a look at how these developments will affect financial markets, especially the Forex market. The combination of the potential tariff freeze on Mexico and Canada and the tightening tariffs on China will undoubtedly affect currency dynamics, creating both opportunities and risks for traders. 1. Impact on the U.S. Dollar (USD) The dollar may be influenced in contrasting ways by these developments. On the one hand, the tariff freeze on Mexico and Canada could be positive for the dollar, as it may favor a stronger North American economy, stimulating trade flows and reducing uncertainty. In particular, sectors such as automotive, energy, and agriculture may benefit from lower costs. On the other hand, tensions with China could continue to create geopolitical uncertainties, which historically have led to greater volatility in the dollar. In the event of escalation, the effect could be an increase in demand for safe-haven assets like gold and the Japanese yen, leading to a temporary weakness in the dollar. Forex Trading Strategy: If the tariff freeze leads to economic stabilization in North America, the dollar could appreciate against riskier currencies such as the Mexican peso (MXN) and the Canadian dollar (CAD). However, traders should monitor China's reactions, as an escalation could lead to a more significant dollar rally. 2. Impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) and Canadian Dollar (CAD) The tariff freeze on Mexico and Canada will likely have a positive impact on both currencies. These countries will benefit from reduced costs on goods exported to the United States, which could stimulate economic growth and improve the trade balance. However, the situation remains delicate. If China continues with new tariffs, Mexico and Canada could be indirectly affected, as overall global uncertainty could reduce trade and slow down growth. Nevertheless, both countries could continue to see appreciation in their currencies against emerging market or riskier currencies. Forex Trading Strategy: If the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar appreciate, traders might consider going long on these currencies against others like the Brazilian real (BRL) or South African rand (ZAR), which tend to be more volatile and vulnerable to global crises. 3. Impact on the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and Emerging Market Currencies The escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China will have a direct impact on the Chinese yuan. If more counter-tariffs are imposed, the yuan could weaken further, particularly against the dollar. This weakening could also increase volatility in emerging market currencies as capital might seek safety in assets like the dollar or Japanese yen. Another potential effect will be the increase in commodity demand, particularly for metals and energy, which could benefit currencies linked to the export of raw materials, such as the Australian dollar (AUD) and the New Zealand dollar (NZD). Forex Trading Strategy: Traders expecting a weakening of the yuan could consider short positions on the CNY against the dollar or other major currencies. Additionally, monitoring commodity price trends will be crucial, as they could provide leading indicators for currencies tied to their export. Conclusion: A New Chapter in the Tariff War with Forex Impacts In summary, the tariff war between the United States, Mexico, Canada, and China is entering a new phase that will have long-lasting effects on financial markets, especially on Forex. Currency fluctuations will be influenced by a combination of trade policies, geopolitical uncertainties, and global economic dynamics. Investors and traders need to prepare for a period of high volatility, closely monitoring the moves of key players and their repercussions on the currency markets. In this environment, adopting a flexible and diversified strategy is crucial, ready to adapt to rapid and unpredictable developments. Forex, as always, offers great opportunities but also significant risks. The key will be to read between the lines of global economic policies and act with timing.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
TradeCityPro | DOGEUSDT End of the Downtrend👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel! Let's go together into a turbulent day in the market, which was accompanied by the opening of global markets, Trump’s side events, and economic sanctions on Canada and Mexico. Let’s take a look at the chart together. 📣 How did this happen? The event that occurred last night with the market opening in the Tokyo session was that Trump suddenly increased import tariffs from China, Canada, and Mexico to 25%, causing economic conflicts among these countries. Along with this, we saw an increase in USDCAD, the dollar index, gold, and cryptocurrency, leading to market fluctuations. However, today it was announced that these changes will take effect next month. 🌐 Overview Bitcoin Before starting the Bitcoin analysis, let’s first examine Bitcoin on the one-hour timeframe as usual. We had already opened our short position after breaking 101,654 in previous analyses, and this morning, due to sell-off candles around the 92,000-dollar range and excessive overselling, we secured a lot of profit and completely exited the position. This drop caused a severe shock to most people, leading to the liquidation of $2 billion in long futures positions. This price drop was accompanied by an increase in Bitcoin dominance, reaching my psychological ceiling, and a very long shadow up to 64.30% was recorded. In my opinion, this is the Bitcoin dominance peak, but we will wait for confirmation. The reason I say this is the peak is that a large volume of other coins is staked and locked outside the cycle. This makes it unlikely that we will go above these numbers, and we will likely experience corrections and declines gradually. However, Bitcoin itself has completely recovered its drop, which is a very good sign for upward movement and momentum because a momentum shift has practically occurred. The reason for this shift was the announcement that these economic events will be implemented next month, not now, which brought calm to the markets. But Bitcoin still has good momentum, and you shouldn’t feel left out. Feeling left out is for those who lack risk management and enter positions recklessly, not us. 📊 Weekly Timeframe On the weekly timeframe, Dogecoin, Elon Musk’s favorite coin that has practically established itself as an entity in the U.S. and made him the second most influential person in the country, has had an outstanding performance recently. It has both recorded a higher low compared to 2023 and has not undergone significant price corrections—just a rejection from its ATH, which is entirely logical. I am not buying for now and prefer to miss a move, or if I do buy, it will be very low-risk. But if you want to buy a coin, be very careful about how it performed during this correction and what its Bitcoin pair looks like. Most coins that experienced more decline, like NOT, had a bearish Bitcoin pair, while some coins that held up well were either ranging or bullish. With this weekly candle, you can take a risk and make your purchase, but you must consider that it has merely bounced off support and made a pullback. Therefore, it may range for a few weeks before continuing its momentum, as the high volatility at the beginning of the month means the market may need some rest—unless we enter a bull run. For selling, hold on for now and do nothing. 📈 Daily Timeframe On the daily timeframe, however, DOGE is one of the coins that has reacted well to recent events and is behaving almost like Bitcoin. It has rebounded from this range and is closing a strong candle with high volume, preventing the daily RSI from entering oversold territory. On the other hand, DOGE is among those coins that are positioned at higher levels compared to the daily range that most altcoins have formed, showing its relative strength against Bitcoin. If you check Ethereum on the daily timeframe, you will understand what I mean. After breaking the important 0.31019 support and the 0.236 Fibonacci support, we saw a sharp candle that rebounded between the 0.382 and 0.5 range, which is not a bad reaction at all. Most likely, some purchases will be made upon the closing of this candle. If this aligns with your strategy, it is not a bad entry point, but I personally prefer to wait a little longer and enter with a better trigger and a smaller stop-loss. Or, I might wait for the 0.466 resistance break and take the trade with more certainty or higher risk. First, when the market becomes range-bound and boring, that is exactly when the highest probability of movement occurs. Second, take risk and capital management very seriously. I know 90% of our community follows this, but I need to repeat it repeatedly to make it universal and prevent people from being liquidated unnecessarily by opening reckless positions based on mere hope. 📝 Final Thoughts Stay calm, trade wisely, and let's capture the market's best opportunities! This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
Long
by tradecitypro
12
USDCAD - 4H TradingRangeDespite various market news over the past few days, USDCAD remains within its trading range, as previously discussed. The pair has yet to make a valid breakout, meaning range trading remains a viable strategy. 📉 Price has rejected the top of the range after recent news, aligning with expectations. 📌 Opportunities arise at key support & resistance zones within this range. We continue to monitor for potential breakouts or further confirmations. Follow for updates!
by Sober_Trading
USDCAD_1D&1W_BuyAnalysis of the Canadian dollar economy Elliott wave analysis Mid-term and long-term time frames According to the data of the chart, the trend is still upward and the US dollar can gain value in relation to the US dollar, and due to the drop of the Canadian dollar, it is necessary for the wave length to end and Canada to get out of the difficult situation. The market can complete its ascent in five waves, which is currently in the five big waves. If the Bank of Canada does not take action and the price does not return below 1.40000 The trend can continue to rise towards 1.45300 and again a short correction and again continue to rise towards 1.51500 Good luck for the difficult conditions of the great country of Canada
Long
by Elliottwaveofficial
Dye and Durham Downward SpiralMaking acquisitions to artificially boost their numbers, their software has not improved in years. Their recently announced layoffs and "back to office" attitude will help them get costs under control, unfortunately their product will not improve and they will have to increasingly rely on sales tactics and lock-in, an Oracle-lite strategy where the current customers find it difficult to switch and stay with the product for 5-10 years while new customers are increasingly harder to find. They'll end up at $7, we've seen this story play out for other software companies where the product offering hardly improves and the customer pipeline slows down. Then they'll get bought out by a larger player, same strategy as DNDT but at a larger scale.
TSX:DNDShort
by electronicSnow83795
NZD/CAD Tests Key Demand Area with Bullish Signs EmergingIn the last three days, the NZD/CAD pair has retested a crucial demand area, showing a clear rejection, which indicates potential buying interest at this level. Supporting this outlook, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that retail traders continue to hold predominantly short positions, while "Smart Money"—institutional investors—are steadily increasing their exposure to the pair. Additionally, though less significant, the price has reacted to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the swing low, adding another technical layer to the current scenario. Large speculators have already shifted to a bullish stance, signaling growing confidence in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) relative to the Canadian Dollar (CAD). This shift in market sentiment could pave the way for a potential long setup, especially as seasonal trends indicate further upside potential for the NZD/CAD pair. From a technical perspective, the combination of the demand zone rejection and the bullish movement in institutional positioning suggests the possibility of an upward move. Traders will be closely observing the price action over the coming days for signs of a breakout, which could provide an opportunity to enter long positions in line with the growing bullish sentiment surrounding NZD/CAD. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/CAD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
USD/CAD: What to Expect from BoC Next Week? USD/CAD: What to Expect from BoC Next Week? Canada’s central bank is set to announce its next rate decision on Oct. 23, with Canadian banks largely anticipating a 50-basis-point cut. A similar reduction is also expected at the BoC's final meeting of the year on Dec. 11. For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox. The prospect of back-to-back cuts is weighing heavily on the Canadian dollar, which touched to a two-month low of 1.383 against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday. Technical indicators, including moving averages, suggest a potential short-term bullish trend for the pair. Meanwhile, in the U.S., Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari indicated this week that any future rate cuts from the Federal Reserve could be "modest." Which the market might be interpreting as a bias for a smaller 25-basis point cut.
by BlackBull_Markets
TD Bank Faces $3 Billion Fine Amid Money Laundering ScandalTD Bank (NYSE: TSX:TD ), Canada's second-largest bank, has been hit hard by a $3 billion penalty following its guilty plea in a high-profile money laundering case involving drug cartels and other criminal networks. This hefty fine is a result of TD’s failure to monitor over $18.3 trillion in customer activity, leading to more than $670 million being funneled through accounts associated with money laundering schemes. As part of the settlement, TD Bank will face severe growth restrictions and the implementation of a stringent oversight program for its U.S. operations. The Whole Story The Department of Justice (DOJ) and federal financial regulators have highlighted TD Bank’s negligence in addressing anti-money laundering (AML) concerns. According to Attorney General Merrick Garland, the bank’s profit-driven mindset allowed it to turn a blind eye to the illegal activities of drug traffickers, leading to TD Bank becoming complicit in these crimes. In addition to the financial penalty, TD’s U.S. subsidiaries are restricted from growing their total assets beyond $434 billion, similar to the Federal Reserve’s sanctions on Wells Fargo in 2018. This settlement is expected to severely impact TD Bank’s business outlook. The $1.8 billion portion of the penalty to the DOJ marks one of the largest fines in U.S. banking history. Additionally, the Treasury Department's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) imposed a record $1.3 billion penalty and will monitor TD Bank for four years to ensure compliance. TD’s leadership, including CEO Bharat Masrani, has taken responsibility for the bank’s failures, pledging to make the necessary changes to its AML program. While this is a major step, it might not be enough to win back the trust of stakeholders in the short term. The controversy surrounding TD Bank's role in criminal activities, including narcotics trafficking and terrorist financing, poses a significant challenge for the institution’s reputation. Technical Analysis TD Bank's stock has faced substantial pressure as the scandal unfolded. As of the latest trading session, (NYSE: TSX:TD ) has dropped over 6%, indicating a selling spree by investors wary of the bank's future prospects. The stock’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped to a weak 33, suggesting that it is entering oversold territory. This RSI level reflects a stock that could continue to decline if further negative sentiment prevails. On the daily price chart, TD Bank (NYSE: TSX:TD ) is exhibiting a classic gap-down pattern, a strong bearish reversal signal. This pattern, combined with the overwhelming negative fundamentals, indicates that the stock could face further declines in the near term. Despite this, TD Bank (NYSE: TSX:TD ) is trading above both its 100-day and 200-day moving averages (MAs), signaling that there is still some long-term technical support. If the stock can stabilize at these levels, it might be able to recover some losses once the immediate effects of the scandal subside. However, breaking below these key moving averages could signal deeper trouble ahead. What’s Next for TD Bank? TD Bank’s near-term future remains uncertain as it grapples with the fallout from its guilty plea. The penalties will not only hamper its financial performance but also restrict its growth, particularly in the highly competitive U.S. market. The negative publicity surrounding the scandal and the regulatory restrictions could erode investor confidence, leading to more volatility in the stock price. However, with TD Bank’s commitment to rectifying its AML program and the backing of a strong leadership team, the bank may be able to weather the storm. Long-term investors will be closely watching how the bank implements its corrective actions and manages regulatory oversight in the coming years. In the short term, TSX:TD is in for a bumpy ride. With the technical indicators pointing towards more downside risk, traders should keep an eye on the 100-day and 200-day moving averages as potential support levels. If these break, the stock could face a steeper decline.
NYSE:TDShort
by DEXWireNews
2