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USDCAD_1D&1W_BuyAnalysis of the Canadian dollar economy Elliott wave analysis Mid-term and long-term time frames According to the data of the chart, the trend is still upward and the US dollar can gain value in relation to the US dollar, and due to the drop of the Canadian dollar, it is necessary for the wave length to end and Canada to get out of the difficult situation. The market can complete its ascent in five waves, which is currently in the five big waves. If the Bank of Canada does not take action and the price does not return below 1.40000 The trend can continue to rise towards 1.45300 and again a short correction and again continue to rise towards 1.51500 Good luck for the difficult conditions of the great country of Canada
Long
by Elliottwaveofficial
Dye and Durham Downward SpiralMaking acquisitions to artificially boost their numbers, their software has not improved in years. Their recently announced layoffs and "back to office" attitude will help them get costs under control, unfortunately their product will not improve and they will have to increasingly rely on sales tactics and lock-in, an Oracle-lite strategy where the current customers find it difficult to switch and stay with the product for 5-10 years while new customers are increasingly harder to find. They'll end up at $7, we've seen this story play out for other software companies where the product offering hardly improves and the customer pipeline slows down. Then they'll get bought out by a larger player, same strategy as DNDT but at a larger scale.
TSX:DNDShort
by electronicSnow83795
NZD/CAD Tests Key Demand Area with Bullish Signs EmergingIn the last three days, the NZD/CAD pair has retested a crucial demand area, showing a clear rejection, which indicates potential buying interest at this level. Supporting this outlook, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that retail traders continue to hold predominantly short positions, while "Smart Money"—institutional investors—are steadily increasing their exposure to the pair. Additionally, though less significant, the price has reacted to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the swing low, adding another technical layer to the current scenario. Large speculators have already shifted to a bullish stance, signaling growing confidence in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) relative to the Canadian Dollar (CAD). This shift in market sentiment could pave the way for a potential long setup, especially as seasonal trends indicate further upside potential for the NZD/CAD pair. From a technical perspective, the combination of the demand zone rejection and the bullish movement in institutional positioning suggests the possibility of an upward move. Traders will be closely observing the price action over the coming days for signs of a breakout, which could provide an opportunity to enter long positions in line with the growing bullish sentiment surrounding NZD/CAD. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/CAD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
USD/CAD: What to Expect from BoC Next Week? USD/CAD: What to Expect from BoC Next Week? Canada’s central bank is set to announce its next rate decision on Oct. 23, with Canadian banks largely anticipating a 50-basis-point cut. A similar reduction is also expected at the BoC's final meeting of the year on Dec. 11. For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox. The prospect of back-to-back cuts is weighing heavily on the Canadian dollar, which touched to a two-month low of 1.383 against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday. Technical indicators, including moving averages, suggest a potential short-term bullish trend for the pair. Meanwhile, in the U.S., Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari indicated this week that any future rate cuts from the Federal Reserve could be "modest." Which the market might be interpreting as a bias for a smaller 25-basis point cut.
by BlackBull_Markets
TD Bank Faces $3 Billion Fine Amid Money Laundering ScandalTD Bank (NYSE: TSX:TD ), Canada's second-largest bank, has been hit hard by a $3 billion penalty following its guilty plea in a high-profile money laundering case involving drug cartels and other criminal networks. This hefty fine is a result of TD’s failure to monitor over $18.3 trillion in customer activity, leading to more than $670 million being funneled through accounts associated with money laundering schemes. As part of the settlement, TD Bank will face severe growth restrictions and the implementation of a stringent oversight program for its U.S. operations. The Whole Story The Department of Justice (DOJ) and federal financial regulators have highlighted TD Bank’s negligence in addressing anti-money laundering (AML) concerns. According to Attorney General Merrick Garland, the bank’s profit-driven mindset allowed it to turn a blind eye to the illegal activities of drug traffickers, leading to TD Bank becoming complicit in these crimes. In addition to the financial penalty, TD’s U.S. subsidiaries are restricted from growing their total assets beyond $434 billion, similar to the Federal Reserve’s sanctions on Wells Fargo in 2018. This settlement is expected to severely impact TD Bank’s business outlook. The $1.8 billion portion of the penalty to the DOJ marks one of the largest fines in U.S. banking history. Additionally, the Treasury Department's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) imposed a record $1.3 billion penalty and will monitor TD Bank for four years to ensure compliance. TD’s leadership, including CEO Bharat Masrani, has taken responsibility for the bank’s failures, pledging to make the necessary changes to its AML program. While this is a major step, it might not be enough to win back the trust of stakeholders in the short term. The controversy surrounding TD Bank's role in criminal activities, including narcotics trafficking and terrorist financing, poses a significant challenge for the institution’s reputation. Technical Analysis TD Bank's stock has faced substantial pressure as the scandal unfolded. As of the latest trading session, (NYSE: TSX:TD ) has dropped over 6%, indicating a selling spree by investors wary of the bank's future prospects. The stock’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped to a weak 33, suggesting that it is entering oversold territory. This RSI level reflects a stock that could continue to decline if further negative sentiment prevails. On the daily price chart, TD Bank (NYSE: TSX:TD ) is exhibiting a classic gap-down pattern, a strong bearish reversal signal. This pattern, combined with the overwhelming negative fundamentals, indicates that the stock could face further declines in the near term. Despite this, TD Bank (NYSE: TSX:TD ) is trading above both its 100-day and 200-day moving averages (MAs), signaling that there is still some long-term technical support. If the stock can stabilize at these levels, it might be able to recover some losses once the immediate effects of the scandal subside. However, breaking below these key moving averages could signal deeper trouble ahead. What’s Next for TD Bank? TD Bank’s near-term future remains uncertain as it grapples with the fallout from its guilty plea. The penalties will not only hamper its financial performance but also restrict its growth, particularly in the highly competitive U.S. market. The negative publicity surrounding the scandal and the regulatory restrictions could erode investor confidence, leading to more volatility in the stock price. However, with TD Bank’s commitment to rectifying its AML program and the backing of a strong leadership team, the bank may be able to weather the storm. Long-term investors will be closely watching how the bank implements its corrective actions and manages regulatory oversight in the coming years. In the short term, TSX:TD is in for a bumpy ride. With the technical indicators pointing towards more downside risk, traders should keep an eye on the 100-day and 200-day moving averages as potential support levels. If these break, the stock could face a steeper decline.
NYSE:TDShort
by DEXWireNews
2
XIU / TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange)The TSX / XIU (ETF) is going down over the next 8 months, no doubt in my mind as a Canadian. Housing is not selling, starts are being cancelled / going bankrupt, we are over-populated and our infrastructure can not handle it. The rate decreases won't save our over-leveraged banks (real-estate, mostly residential, down 20% in many areas and still barely any buyers and many looking to exit - investors primarily). No way this holds these levels. I bought Feb 2025 $34 puts for $0.65 CAD. I expect this could be a ten bagger, especially if they finally admit Canada and USA and the world is in a massive recession. It is undeniable here. Foodbanks are empty and people are too strapped to donate (or are sick of seeing "students" from India eating "free food" meant for Canadians - many of whom are struggling). This stock price is a joke. Good luck to all!
TSX:XIUShort
by mraso30
3
Volatile Week for USD/CAD? Volatile Week for USD/CAD? The Bank of Canada (BoC) is anticipated to lower rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, bringing the policy rate down to 4.25%. This expectation follows a recent CPI report that indicated further easing in core inflation, coupled with weaker labor market data. While a 50-basis point cut seems unlikely, it can't be entirely dismissed. In the July monetary policy meeting, Governor Tiff Macklem suggested that the focus may shift towards supporting economic growth rather than solely controlling inflation. Additionally, Canada's August employment report is set to be released on Friday, coinciding with the US nonfarm payrolls report. This timing could heighten uncertainty and volatility in the USD/CAD pair. A key level to watch will be the 1.3570-1.3600 zone, which previously served as a significant support area. Whether this area will be re-tested remains to be seen.
by BlackBull_Markets
BOC Rate Cut Bets Grow as Loonie Stands Firm R2 1.3947 – 5 August/2024 high – Strong R1 1.3900 – Figure – Medium S1 1.3718 – 9 August low – Medium S2 1.3700 – 19 July low – Medium We remain in the thick of thin summer trade, something that must be taken into consideration when reflecting on price action. The market has done a good job overall recovering from last Monday’s panic mess and the question on everyone’s mind is whether or not all of that doom and gloom is behind us or just the start to another intense wave of risk off flow. The Canadian Dollar held up rather well on Friday despite the discouraging Canada employment report. The local rate market has now begun to price in the 10% possibility for an even bigger 50 basis point rate cut at the Bank of Canada's next meeting in early September. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German wholesale prices, Canada building permits, US consumer inflation expectations, and the US monthly budget statement. A sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
1
USDCAD Analysis: Anticipating a New Bullish ImpulseUSDCAD is beginning a new bullish impulse after retesting the previous resistance area, which has now transformed into a strong demand zone. This retest is a crucial technical signal, suggesting that the pair is poised for a potential new upward movement. By examining the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, we observe that the positioning of large traders supports a bullish outlook for the USD against the Canadian Dollar. This sentiment is further reinforced by our supply and demand analysis, which highlights the demand zone as a key level where buying interest has emerged, providing a foundation for the price to move higher. Seasonality trends also play a significant role in our analysis. Historically, this period of the year tends to favor a stronger USD against the CAD, adding another layer of confidence to our bullish forecast. The confluence of these factors—the retest of the demand zone, favorable COT positioning, and positive seasonality—strengthens our expectation of a sustained upward movement in USDCAD. We are closely monitoring the price action and are prepared to capitalize on this bullish setup. Should the price continue to rise from the current levels, we anticipate further gains. However, it's essential to remain vigilant and adapt to any market changes that might influence our analysis. Additionally, for a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing this expected bullish trend, please follow our detailed analysis on CAD futures provided below. This in-depth analysis will offer insights into the broader market dynamics affecting the Canadian Dollar and support our long position strategy in USDCAD. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USDCAD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
Key Canadian trading events this week On Friday, alongside the US PCE data release, Canada will publish its Q1 GDP growth figures. Earlier in the week, Canada will also release its producer prices data. Note that US markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day. According to the Royal Bank of Canada, the Canadian economy likely grew more quickly in Q1 2024 based on headline figures. However, this growth was still insufficient to keep pace with the surging population. Consequently, GDP per capita contracted for the seventh consecutive quarter. Speaking of the Royal Bank of Canada, they will also be reporting its earnings this week, along with other major Canadian banks. Tuesday, May 28 Earnings: Bank of Nova Scotia Wednesday, May 29 Earnings: Bank of Montreal, National Bank, EQB Inc. Thursday, May 30 Earnings: CIBC, Royal Bank of Canada Friday, May 31 8:30 a.m. Canada Q1 GDP Earnings: Laurentian Bank, Western Bank The USD/CAD ended its four-day winning streak on Friday, closing down by half a percent at approximately 1.3660. Declining crude oil prices had been putting pressure on the CAD until now. Buyers could step in around this level for a potential bounce back though. Additionally, the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on June 2 could influence this pair. Market participants are watching for potential output cut extensions by major producers to address global oversupply concerns and support prices, which might cause hesitation among USD/CAD buyers at the 1.3660 level.
by BlackBull_Markets
CADCHF: Important ZonesTraders, D: 4h: Our strategy for this pair involves positioning our orders strategically below the liquidity hunt. By placing our orders in this manner, we aim to capitalize on potential market movements following the liquidity hunt, maximizing our chances of entering favorable positions. As we await the release of Canadian Retail Sales data, it's crucial to remain mindful of its potential impact on market direction. Should there be any notable surprises in the Retail Sales month-over-month figures, it could prompt shifts in market sentiment. Particularly, figures below -0.2% may pose risks to the current trend, while numbers exceeding 0.3% could warrant reassessment of our current zones. Stay informed and prepared to adjust your trading strategy accordingly based on the outcome of the data release. Best regards,
Long
by AliSignals