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Preparing for Fed verdict, analyzing the state of the oil marketThe attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure led to the biggest jump in global prices. The correction was not observed until the American session started. We recommended on Tuesday to open short positions in oil because we were confident in the corrective movement and the end, the recommendation justified itself at 100%. In just 10 minutes, oil lost over 4%. The reason for the decline was the information that Saudi Arabia has officially confirmed - production capacity will be restored by the end of September. And to compensate for losses in production associated with the attack, the Saudis will increase production up to 12 million bpd by the end of October. So those of our readers who trust our experience and analytics should have made good money. As for trading on the oil market today, then after the strongest fall yesterday, everything looks rather ambiguous. And although we continue to incline toward asset sales you should be careful with that. As for the Fed and the Open Market Committee. An event that was devoid of intrigue just a couple of weeks ago (100% of traders set a minimum rate reduction of 0.25) may surprise. The current probability of a Fed rate cut is slightly above 60%. And if you take into account that yesterday's data on industrial production in the USA were frankly surprising: 0.6% m / m with a forecast of + 0.2% m / m and July outcome -0.1% m / m, the Fed can keep the rate unchanged. Our position remains unchanged. We expect the rate to be lowered by 0.25%. There are enough reasons for this: an interest rate reduction by ECB rate last week, a deterioration of the US labor market and the US economy condition as a whole, threat of a global recession and intensified trade war, multiplied by the risk of a US military campaign in Iran - all of this obliges the Fed to act and reduce the interest rate to prevent the US economy downfall. Anyway, reinsurance is better than solve the consequences duo to the lack of action. Accordingly, our position on the dollar today is also unchanged - we will sell it. At the same time, we do not forget the euro and its movement after the ECB meeting last week. The probability of false movements is great and it is extremely important to follow a predetermined plan. But at the same time, it is worthwhile to put stops so as not to go against the market will. In addition to the decision of the Fed and the subsequent explosion of volatility in the foreign exchange market, it is worth paying attention to inflation data from the UK and Canada. As for the UK. Despite Johnson's unsuccessful meeting in Luxembourg, the pound did not react that much. This means that we will continue to look for an opportunity to buy the British pound. First of all, against the euro and the US dollar. The tactics of buying gold in the area of local lows continue to be justified, so we will continue to adhere to it today.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
Reading the right side of the chart : CADCHF 18 Sept 2019Yesterday the daily range was 32 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 52 pips. Price missed the daily range hence I expect a decent price expansion of above today's 20-day ADR of 48 pips or at least hitting the exact range projection. I am bullish bias for CADCHF hence I am looking at the liquidity pool at 0.74800-0.74880 and/or 0.74700-0.74600. If price enters into this price zone, then it is a bullish activation for me and I would proceed to look for a bullish trigger to long this pair. There is a CPI number for Canada today at 8.30 pm (Singapore/Malaysia time). I have looked at the last 3 data release of CPI. My concern of risk event is generally only the inevitable stop hunt that occurs during this time hence I only look at the reaction candle (the 30-minute candle at the time of the release of the economic number). On June 19th, 2019, when the number came out better than expected with +0.3% deviation (0.4% vs 0.1%), there was a 25 pip bullish spike (30 min candle) followed by retracement taking out the 25-26 pips bullish spike and price movement was flat until NY close. The price moved up again and closed above the high of that 30-min candle at NY close. The price went into an intraday bearish move the following day. The underlying trend at that time was Bearish. On July 17th, 2019, the number came out better than expected with a +0.1% deviation (-0.2% vs -0.3%), there was a 17 pip run. That 30-min candle closed as a spinning top type candle and price moved down and closed below the close price of this 30-min candle at NY close. The price went into a bearish move the following day. The underlying technical narrative at that time was Bearish as there was a Double top at a significant level. On August 21st, 2019, the number came out better than expected with a +0.4% deviation (0.5% vs 0.1%), there was a 24 pip bullish spike. That candle closed as a solid bullish candle and price moved slightly flat after NY close. The price went moderately bullish the following day. The underlying technical trend at that time was Bearish (which the price went into a bearish intraday trend 2 days after the CPI numbers released) Based on these small sample data (but rest assured I have checked larger sample size but for the sake of simplicity and avoiding this post to be a very dragging and long post, I just present the last 3 CPI numbers that came out), very often the candle spike reacts according to the headline numbers but the price action afterward were somewhat mixed and "random". The candle spike did show there was a stop hunt i.e June 19th, after the bullish spike, the price went down at the next several candles and July 17th, there were two-sided spike even though it was only 17 pips but the candle closed as spinning top which suggested there was an "accumulation" in that 30 minute period. I will trade around this risk event and looking for a stop-hunt at the levels I have determined as liquidity pool so I can Long CADCHF. The forecast is -0.2%, huge decrease from previous 0.5% (-0.7% deviation). If the actual number is somewhat better than -0.2% with huge deviation, then I expect a 20-25 pip bullish spike. I will enter the trade after the 8pm candle close (enter a trade at 9 pm Singapore time) BUT only if the price at the time was already tapped into the liquidity pool. IF not, then I will wait until the next day and see if the market can give me new and fresh structures to work on. If the number came out worse than expected, then I expect 20-25 pips bearish spike. As I mentioned, the aftermath of this event seems to be random and that suggests me I can proceed to trade according to my technical bias. The reactionary bearish spike, at which I hope will be the catalyst of liquidity run towards the levels I have determined so I can look for bullish triggers to long CADCHF
Long
by sufiansaid
Reading the right side of the chart : EURCAD 17 Sept 2019Yesterday the daily range was 156 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 110 pips. There was a price expansion yesterday so I am anticipating either a small correction (towards the liquidity pool at the upside) or a continuation downwards but in a small range. I am bearish bias for EURCAD hence I am looking to short this pair. I am looking at the liquidity pool around 1.46000-1.46300 and 1.46600-1.46800. If price enters in these zones, that is a bearish activation and I will wait for a bearish trigger to short EURCAD. If the price goes lower, without touching these zones, I will wait and see if the market gives me a fresh market structure that I could work on There are no risk events for the Euro and Canada today
Short
by sufiansaid
1
Action off the squeeze NUTSXV:NU I've been watching this approaching its 52 week low for some time and as a business they fail to really excite me. As a trading opportunity, however... In the life of this stock it has touched the top of the BB9 on the weekly chart three times after a squeeze. Each time was followed by significant upward action. As the volume profile tells us that most of this stock was traded in the 14 to 18 cent range, I am quite happy taking a position around 8 or 9 cents. Given the industry that they are in and the revenue the cannabis industry is currently enjoying, I cannot see this stock breaking it's 52 week low of 6.5 cents, which is where my stop loss would be for a loss of 1.5 cents per share. Risking a potential loss of around 18% for a potential easy gain of 50% to potentially much more, in an industry that is booming globally, on a stock that has historically demonstrated upward action off performance it is exhibiting currently - I feel strongly that this is a no brainer for a 'quick buck'.
NShort
by Keeegs
Trading Above Rising 50-day Moving Average LineUrbanimmersive went up 88.89% on August 15th on more than 10 times average daily volume as a result of a very strong earnings report. As a result of this jump in price, the stock is now trading above its 50-day moving average line which has been trending upwards and towards the 200-day moving average line. Also, the accumulation/distribution line has been trending upwards. Tradingview's technical summary is BUY. Morningstar's current fair value for Urbanimmersive is $0.13, which is more than 60% above the current stock price.
TSXV:UILong
by IntelPowerTrader
TSX: Slow Decline; CDN Dollar To Rise Noticeably through 2020As we continue to slowly tip-toe in a global recession likely sometime in 2020, with a bear market in the stock market set to happen at anytime within the next year, the TSX will only follow suit. As always, nothing goes up and down in a linear straight line. There will always be fake outs for bulls and bears, but the overall trend of markets around the world will be in the decline - even if we re-test ATHs at some point. The TSX. compared to the USA indice counterparts are typically delayed by 3-6 months from troughing out, and losses are typically muted somewhat (comparatively speaking). As history takes us back to 2008, the USA typically sets the bar between Canada and the USA for cutting interest rates. Because the USA cuts rates typically 2-4 quarters before Canada, usually the DXY falls, while the CXY rises. I would not be surprised before the end of Q1 2020 if the Canadian Dollar is back near 90 cents US. By Q4 2020 or Q1 2021 the CXY may be back on par and potentially worth more (again, temporarily) before falling in 2022. As I have said in many of my ideas: long gold, long silver and buy and hold weed stocks (for now) as they are a sector guaranteed to rebound in the near-term. Which ones do I recommend? CWEB, VGW and Planet 13 for direct players; ENW and GRWG for auxiliary players. Always choose your entries wisely and never chase break-outs; wait for pullbacks. It is important to hedge accordingly. The overall market has overextended and I would refrain from investing in the big stocks in the Dow, SP500 and Nas100. Pick your entries accordingly and I recommend 50-60% of your portfolio should encompass gold and silver with an additional 20% in weed/weed auxiliaries and 20% held for any potential entries on stocks set to rebound or for shorting leveraged funds like the HUV and TVIX. - zSplit
TSX:TSXShort
by PaulDeep19131