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TSX: Slow Decline; CDN Dollar To Rise Noticeably through 2020As we continue to slowly tip-toe in a global recession likely sometime in 2020, with a bear market in the stock market set to happen at anytime within the next year, the TSX will only follow suit. As always, nothing goes up and down in a linear straight line. There will always be fake outs for bulls and bears, but the overall trend of markets around the world will be in the decline - even if we re-test ATHs at some point. The TSX. compared to the USA indice counterparts are typically delayed by 3-6 months from troughing out, and losses are typically muted somewhat (comparatively speaking). As history takes us back to 2008, the USA typically sets the bar between Canada and the USA for cutting interest rates. Because the USA cuts rates typically 2-4 quarters before Canada, usually the DXY falls, while the CXY rises. I would not be surprised before the end of Q1 2020 if the Canadian Dollar is back near 90 cents US. By Q4 2020 or Q1 2021 the CXY may be back on par and potentially worth more (again, temporarily) before falling in 2022. As I have said in many of my ideas: long gold, long silver and buy and hold weed stocks (for now) as they are a sector guaranteed to rebound in the near-term. Which ones do I recommend? CWEB, VGW and Planet 13 for direct players; ENW and GRWG for auxiliary players. Always choose your entries wisely and never chase break-outs; wait for pullbacks. It is important to hedge accordingly. The overall market has overextended and I would refrain from investing in the big stocks in the Dow, SP500 and Nas100. Pick your entries accordingly and I recommend 50-60% of your portfolio should encompass gold and silver with an additional 20% in weed/weed auxiliaries and 20% held for any potential entries on stocks set to rebound or for shorting leveraged funds like the HUV and TVIX. - zSplit
TSX:TSXShort
by PaulDeep19131
Overall view of USDCAD - Update of July 15th's weekThe pair has been selling off since June, loosing more than 500 pips. The weaker dollar is due to the fact that the US indices inventories favour a bull run, fuelled by the optimism that Feds will be cutting interest rates this month and the current impasse of the trade wars. Thus, the trading volume is steady, and we are likely to experience more downside movement. Nonetheless, chances of a reversal are increasing : Institutional buyers are increasing at the expense of buying retailers. Possible targets: @1.29000 (+130 pips) and @1.28000 (+220 pips). Advice: Stay bearish and short at any high points while we don't break upside @1.31000 which would create a new consolidation.
Short
by Theperfectionist
NFP, Trump's obsession, Morgan Stanley's recommendationsGetting ready for the NFP, Trump's obsession, recommendations of Morgan Stanley The financial markets are having a torrid week. Financial market participants are concerned about the appearance of a trend that the market currently is following. The concern is about the statistics based on the US labor market outcome, which in the future might provoke the US economic slowdown. Let's try to figure out what we should and should not be expected after the outcome will be published. It seems like nobody wants to undertake an in-depth analysis of the current state of the economy and labor market, a matter of reasonable inference from “how the forecast has been calculated”. The formula is, therefore, as follows: take the simple arithmetic average of the NFP index over the last couple of years, that is all. Such an approach practically guarantees that actual data will be different from forecast data. That in itself carries an opportunity for earnings. NFP report outcome creates adverse expectations. We believe that the 160K figure is too optimistic according to the ADP outcome. Since we are expecting poor forecast data, our trading recommendation is - sell the dollar. Moreover, the markets are concerned about possible US interventions against the dollar in the foreign exchange market. Recall, Trump supports the dollar devaluation idea. Last time the United States came out with interventions on the foreign exchange market was in 2011. Recently, USD to YEN rate forecast has been sharply lowered by Morgan Stanley’s analysts: from 108 to 102 at the end of this year and from 98 to 94 at the end of the next year. Motivation - a sharp decline in profitability differential: the profitability of American assets decreases faster than the profitability of European and Japanese. Recall that it is not the first time we recommend selling USDJPY. As for our other recommendations, we will continue to look for points for sales of the Russian ruble and oil. We are working with gold today with no clear without any preference for oscillator signals. In addition, we recommend paying attention to USDCAD. The fact is that today, statistics on the labor market of Canada will be published. So in the case of a double positive or double negative, the USDCAD may be subjected to strong pressure (ascending or descending). The best option for trading, in this case, is trading on the news. 1-2 minutes before the news releases, we set pending stop orders in both directions (buy and sell) with 30 pips at that time and wait for the news to come out. Almost certainly the movement will be strong and unidirectional. That will lead to the execution of one of the orders and will make it possible to earn quite quickly without any particular risks.
Short
by Trade24Fx
1
USD at strong support level against the CADThe USD is currently sitting at a very strong support level against the CAD. EMA50 is also above EMA200 on the daily and weekly. Keep in mind that, technically, the pair is in a "no trade zone." The Canadian economy is also experiencing a number of acute deteriorations vs. the US economy that could put pressure on bank balance sheets in Canada. Increasing non-performing loans in Canada could lead to currency devaluation. The Bank of Canada's inflation targeting also revolves, at least partially, around currency devaluation (a kind of "beggar thy neighbour").
Long
by Trader6127
Daily Canada S&P/TSX CAD stock market index forecast timing anal27-Jun Price Forecast timing analysis by pretiming algorithm of Supply-Demand strength Investing position about Supply-Demand(S&D) strength: In Falling section of high risk & low profit Supply-Demand(S&D) strength Trend Analysis: In the midst of a downward trend of strong downward momentum price flow marked by temporary rises and strong falls. Today's S&D strength Flow: Supply-Demand(S&D) strength flow appropriate to the current trend. read more: www.pretiming.com D+1 Candlestick Color forecast: RED Candlestick %D+1 Range forecast: 0.0% (HIGH) ~ -0.2% (LOW), -0.1% (CLOSE) %AVG in case of rising: 0.3% (HIGH) ~ -0.3% (LOW), 0.2% (CLOSE) %AVG in case of falling: 0.2% (HIGH) ~ -0.5% (LOW), -0.3% (CLOSE) Price Forecast timing is analyzed based on pretiming algorithm of Supply-Demand(S&D) strength.
TSX:TSXShort
by pretiming