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Data from China and the US, world trade is at crisis pointThe statistics from China was the main news event of yesterday. It seems that government measures to stimulate the economy have taken effect. Retail sales and industrial production were much higher than analysts' forecasts of 8.7% and 8.5%. As a result, GDP growth was also pleasantly surprised: 6.4% quarterly growth, with market expectations of 6.3%. The progress in the negotiations between the US and China the result is the decline in gold and the Japanese yen and it looked quite logical and reasonable. But we are still not in a hurry to sell gold. At least today. Moreover, the negotiations are rumors, and the facts are that in the fourth quarter of 2018, world trade fell by 1.8% q / q, which was a record value in the last ten years since the global financial crisis. According to The Telegraph, the recent downturn in world trade is similar to the dot-com bubble collapsed in 2001. Over the past almost 20 years, things were worse only in 2007–2008, when the volume of world trade fell by 12.7%. The dollar “received support” from data on the US trade balance. The deficit turned out to be less than experts had expected: - $ 49.4 billion with the forecast - $ 53.4 billion. We were pleased with the markets and data on the trade balance of Canada, which also came out better than expected. So the main beneficiary of the news of yesterday was the Canadian dollar, which strengthened well, although at the end of the day lost most of the gains. Recall that for the Canadian dollar, which is a typical commodity currency, positive news from China, coupled with positive macroeconomic statistics and high oil prices create almost perfect conditions for growth. Yesterday's news background is generally favorable for commodity markets. But oil was not able to take advantage of this and dropped at the end of the day. We consider this as a signal that the market correction has already matured. Accordingly, while asset quotes are at the local top, we decided to roll over from buying to sales. However, if oil resumes its growth (it will be able to consolidate above 64.50). So today we sell oil with stops above 64.50.
by Trade24Fx
USDCAD UPDATE 2 Our Short Setups still remain as explained in our related idea (See links below). However, this post is to explain how the stop loss can be extended to 1.35200 in case of high volatility on the back end of NFP. We will seek bearish PA confirmation around 1.33950 - 1.34500, ideally 1.3400. As this will probably be traded pre-NFP we need space for some volatility. Therefore, trade half the usual lot size and extend your stop loss to 1.35200. However, these points will be clarified as we get closer to NFP and on bearish Confirmation.
Short
by SERGENAYTUG94
USDCADClearly, the dollar is gaining against the Canadian dollar and long USDCAD is a bit crowded at the moment. Moreover, we have upcoming Canadian economic growth (GDP) coming out this week which is expected to be stronger than the previous period at 1.5 percent from 1.1. percent. That is still pretty weak though, it doesn't come out until Friday, and there is plenty of other pressures, event risks, and themes that will likely play into trading this week. Overall, a weekly trend trader should go long while one expecting worse news in the global growth slowdown story to short. For those a bit cautious, just stay put however my general assessment is short. If you want to find more of my charts and analysis, please check out my content at www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Getting long USDCADThose who have been following the current USDCAD call (see attached: "Oil weighing heavy on CAD") will know we are already positioned in longs here. So what we are trying to do is add another position on a "sell the fact leg" in oil after cuts on the supply side are fully cooked in ... (so time to start working the sell-side again there.) The dollar is also approaching buy levels and as a result buying the retrace leg here in USDCAD is a good opportunity. Lets see how it plays out (For those wondering red fib is from a previous swing and can be ignored I am publishing this on the way back to the office)
Long
by ridethepig
USDCAD_Long/Mid_term_forecastUSDCAD long to mid term forecast indicates a bullish trend. Current expectations are that US factory output is going to experience a slowdown; however I am not sure whether the data set on March 19 is going to reveal that. Regarding the Canadian inflation data, definitely expect to see inflation come down. Overall, I feel that the Canadian economy is going to come out weaker - falling home sales, no oil pipeline and reduced resource demand along with heightened trade and political tensions with US and China is going to affect the economy negatively propelling it down a recessionary path in the mid term. As a long term investor I am bullish on the USDCAD. In the short term I expect the support to be tested in the near future before continuing upward through the ascending channel.
Long
by advisacorp
CAD faces downside risks ahead of dataBy Andria Pichidi - February 8, 2019 Canada’s job market is expected to show another modest increase to start the year, after the 78.4k surge in November gave way to a 7.8k rise in December. Canada employment should expand 10.0k in January. The unemployment rate on the other hand, is expected to nudge higher to 5.7% in January, from the 43-year low 5.6% in November and December. Earnings growth is expected to remain subdued, adding to the softening inflation backdrop, well below the 3.9% pace in May of 2018, at 0.4% m/m in January. The risk for today’s data is to the downside, as January’s data so far showed a constrained Canadian economy to begin 2019, based on consumer and factory sentiment. As the risk is for a negative print for total jobs to begin 2019, Canadian dollar could continue depreciated. USDCAD is up for a fifth consecutive day, today printing a 13-day high at 1.3328 , extending a recovery from last Friday’s 3-month low. The up phase has been concomitant with a down phased in oil prices, while sustained gains in crude prices are a boon to Canada’s terms of trade, and vice versa. Overall, USDCAD is strongly supported by 200-day SMA since April. Hence long term Support holds at 1.3126 (200-day SMA), while the 20-day SMA and PP of the day provide immediate Support levels at 1.3240 and 1.3275 respectively. Resistance holds at 1.3363-1.3375 area , presenting the area between the 50% retracement on the decline seen since 1.3660 high and January’s peak. In the scenario of disappointing jobs data today, the pair could seen reaching this area. Further gains, could lead to the 61.8% Fib. level at 1.3430 level. At this level we could face a correction lower. From the Market perspective, a damp jobs report could underpin expectations that the BoC is stuck on the sidelines until 2020. However, BoC’s view that the current (and Q4) slowing is temporary has been supported by the recent data, as opposed to the data showing a more pronounced slowing in growth than the Bank anticipated. Come join us today at HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Long
by HotForex
1
Is this an opportunity on USD/CAD ?The price has invalidated the uptrend in the very short term, going to break down the level placed at 1.317, that was a static support that should have rebounded the price and continue the long trend. After Powell’s words, investors continued to sell the US dollar, making it weaken against all the majors. The Fed has been clear: at this moment it is difficult to think about further increases in interest rates, as the US economy is responding well at these levels (2.25 / 2.50%). At least for the entire first half of 2019 it will be difficult for him to return to his steps. The market will be hostile to a strengthening of the US currency. This pair is particularly uncertain because the Bank of Canada also does not intend to change its monetary policy, so it is very likely that it will continue to proceed sideways for the next few months in the channel between the support at 1,298 and resistance at 1.33. It is advisable to remain flat until the fundamentals change or one of the two levels mentioned above is broken. It should be noted that on a daily tf, the price has reached the dynamic support identified by the EMA200, which seems to have held: it could be a good opportunity to enter the market from here with target the level of minor importance placed at 1.326 with a “buy“ order.
by BFCMInvest