USDCAD TEXTBOOK WXY-PATTERN SHOWS BIG FALL IS COMINGThe chart says it all. 5 Wave impuls lower was followed by an impressive 10 month long textbook WXY correction pattern that is currently coming to an end.
Wait for the market to form a Lower High maybe around 1.3400 and enter a sell targeting the 1.25 lows.
Dont rush the entry, wait for it to form some kind of topping pattern on the 4H chart for example.
Note: on the montly chart there is a textbook spinning top forming. This is a very bearish topping pattern.
Canada
USD/CAD viewGood evening traders,
Energy traders would have noticed the somewhat eery price action on oil prices recently. I believe that recently losses are attributed to:
- Emerging doubts over the degree of compliance with OPEC production cuts as Iraqi exports remain high;
- Concerns about the rate of market rebalancing;
- Rapid rebound in U.S. shale production following a report at the end of last week which showed another solid build in US rig count (risen for the tenth consecutive week) - I expressed my concerns about this in the related USD/NOK idea.
Reports that non-OPEC producers Russia and Kazakhstan had reduced output produced little positive price reaction.
In essence, there is a battle between two major market dynamics: OPEC cutting (and adhering to cuts) and addition of supply by US shale producers.
One thing is for certain though: currently /cl price action does not look promising. USD/CAD is the best way to play near term oil downside in my opinion.
USDCAD view
USDCAD has been moving in the visible channel since May 2016 and is currently sitting on the lower trend line. CAD looks very expensive currently; the US-Canada 2YR swap spread suggests that USDCAD should be trading much higher indeed.
Markets have been ignoring the risk of US protectionism for CAD; although CAD isn't as exposed to the risk as some other currencies (AUD, for example), the BoC's business outlook survey showed that some respondents are concerned about the uncertainty associated w/ rising protectionism and I do not think that the risk should be discounted so much, since a potential shift from selective tariffs to broad border tax could be significant for US-Canada trade.
Risk:reward, technicals and fundamentals all favour buying the dip on USDCAD, targeting 1.37000.
Good luck!
USDCAD testing long-term trend supportSo long as USDCAD trades above 1.31 this week, there's a case to be made for a bullish reversal on this trend line support (despite the recent spike in oil prices). If prices continue falling past 1.31 without any rapid sell-off, I will probably disregard this trend line. A strong break below would expose the 1.27/28 area in the near term. I would target 1.35/36 should prices reverse at the indicated support level.
CADJPY Watch Out, possible short!CADJPY hitting resistance, tested unsuccessfully (could test again, watch out)
Technicals: Fibonacci Level, structure and over-bought RSI suggest short
Fundamentals: CAD gaining recently due to higher OIL prices (how long will that continue?), JPY's recent rapid depreciation (since Trump won elections) can generate capital outflows, so I believe JPY should be pushed up against main currencies, affecting CADJPY as well
Good risk reward ratio, if trend and Fib broken, long could generate good profits, but to me it seems short due to the abovementioned reasons
NZDCAD increase till end of 2016Year and a half old support line
'Curve' structure from June 2013 never been violated yet
Daily close above 0.7 Fib Level (start from June 2013)
RSI and MACD bullish
New Zealand economy healthy as main macro indicators show!
Canadian dollar might struggle given uncertainty around OIL prices (OIL broke important support last week)
GBPCAD | Fibonacci & EMA Analysis - Potential SELL SideGBPCAD
1. Inverted H&S
2. Rejection from EMA 100
3. Price stop right by Fibo 0.618
4. Weekly Currency Cross (CSS) Bearish
#GBPCAD
1. Inverted H&S
2. Rejection from EMA 100
3. Price stop right by Fibo 0.618
4. Weekly CSS Cross: Bearish
Estimations:
- As long as we dont experience bullish breakout on the new week open day, we will look for bearish breakouts for our entries.
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AUDCAD Technical Analysis: Expecting correction to be overTalking Point:
Technical Strategy : Turning Bearish
Elliottwave View: Expecting completion of wave (C) of c.
Analysis
AUDCAD was trading sideway from Aug-2013. We were seen May-2015 a declined again but unable to takeout Aug-2013 low in impulse manner. We experienced a bounce from 9170 area in May-2015. However, upside was corrective and can be counted as flat correction in elliott-wave. With that in mind, we are expecting correction should be over sooner and can be seen impulsive declined from 1.022 to 1.023 area.
Action
We are waiting for decline and it's confirmation before entering into market. Until then we are sideline and looking into future development.
EURCAD - Bouncing off support! Regardless of Canadian CPI announced today. EC managed to hold out the support level of 1.438, we see it likely that this will be followed with another leg UP.
-Trend line held since 2015!
-Fib level
-All smaller time frames RSI, Stock and MACD oversold
-Daily RSI picking up from oversold territory hinting to another leg up
-Double Bottom (-ish)
Safe and successful trading!
BUY Signal - Repeated in the PastThere are several identical BUY signals in the past, however this time we are in a bit of a down trend so I will not expect the price to break past the SuperTrend v1.0 at 1.3254 .
I am wanting to close out in profit just before it hits that level and then see a pull back.
USD/CAD RISE FOR THE WEEKBased on my naked analysis, I started on the monthly and noticed that my blue EMA was still above my red MA. To me that indicates that the trend for this market is still bullish. Last week this pair ended off in a bearish trend on my lower time frame chart (1hr) which you can see on the chart after 4 levels of drop.
The pair now looks like it is forming an inverted head and shoulders. According to price action this pair has gone up almost 30 pips since the open of the market today. I expect this to hit the 1.29358 support after a short rise and then rally off for about 3-4 levels of rise.
GBP/CAD: Almost 1:5 Risk to Reward RatioLooking at GBP/CAD on the daily time frame price have made its first bearish leg, pullback is now for selling as I am looking to trade the second leg down. On the 4 hour chart MIDAS R1 (launched from 2016-08-03 12:00) have successfully captured the pullback together with a TD-Price Flip on the 1 hour chart. This potential trade setup have a great Risk to Reward Ratio of almost 1:5 giving this the top spot on the watch list for next week.
MIDAS Trading Tools for MT4 is available to download @ MQL5.com