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USDCAD Potential for Bearish Momentum | 12th September 2022On the H4, with the price breaking the ascending channel , below the ichimoku cloud , and there’s a possible “double top” pattern, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop to the sell entry at 1.29910, which is in line with the current swing low. If the sell entry is broken, the take profit could be at 1.28938, where the overlap support and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 1.30958, where the “neckline” of the “double top” pattern and 50% fibonacci retracement are. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
Bank of Canada raised its interest rate by 75 bpsEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 USD/JPY 🔼 XAU 🔼 WTI 🔽 Coinciding with the greenback’s softening, the Bank of Canada raised its interest rate by 75 basis points to 3.25%. USD/CAD rose to 1.3125, and USD/JPY reached a high at 144.99, then retreated to 143.7. EUR/USD briefly surfaced above the parity before closing at 0.9999, as the market expects a 75 basis points rate hike from the European Central Bank tonight. The Pound/Dollar pair closed higher with minor gains at 1.1525, after sliding to a low of 1.1413, not seen since 1985. Although the Australian trade balance only recorded an $8.733 billion reading, considerably lower than the original estimate of $14.500 billion. The GDP results were not far from the mark, a 3.6% quarterly increase enabled the Aussie to climb to 0.6769 against the US dollar. Gold futures recovered and stabilized at $1,727.8 an ounce as the greenback eased. Slowing global demands saw WTI crude futures returning to pre-Russian invasion levels at $81.94 a barrel. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
USD/CADHello every one i think this pair is a swing trade, with sell position starting now. Last time we hit this level was mid July and that time it just crashed. Now we are on the same level and a very patient trade would be nice and very profitable. Guaranteed if you open a short possition on this pair. On Thursdays I like to trade in the afternoon in my time zone which is pacific timezone until about lunch time of Friday. This particular trade I definitely will be holding for a while. I loaded up alot of funds for this trade and my strategy is to constantly add in new shorts possitions through out the couple weeks I plan to leave this trade open. I literally just opened an 18 lot total trade for this pair and I am up about 1700 USD(15 MINUTES). I just have a very good feeling about this trade. I know forsure I will come out with big profits on this. More bad news is gonna just keep happening in US market. Recession will be in full effect. The announcement of interest rate hikes will most likely make things worst and this coming up next announcement it is expected to go up by 1%. Which means USD is gonna be less valuable. Canada is not there yet. Canadian economy is pretty good right now so yeah trust me guys. My entries were : 1) Shorts 1.31522 - 2.5 Lot 2) Shorts 1.31521 - 2.2 Lot 3) Shorts 1.31466 - 5 Lot 4) Shorts 1.31461 - 5 Lot 5) Shorts 1.3440 - 3.3 Lot Total of 18 Lots so far. Will add more as more profits are won.
Short
by Vtown604
What peak Canadian CPI means for the CAD? Canada may now be over the peak inflation hump. The Canadian Inflation Rate has dipped to 7.6% in July from 8.1% in June. The main culprit for the fall in inflation is the decline in gas prices, which has helped negate food prices, which continue to rise (up by 10% from a year ago). The Bank of Canada (BOC) is evaluating this latest inflation reading as it heads toward its next interest rate decision, less than 3 weeks away, on September 7th. A date which every trader should be aware of head of time. If inflation in Canada has peaked and is in decline, questions arise concerning whether the BOC will let up on its aggressiveness to manufacture a softer landing for the economy. Although, it may be too soon to expect such a change in strategy from the BOC as inflation is still very far away from its mandated 2% target. Looking at the USD/CAD pair on the 4-hour chart, the price has recently moved in between strong support and resistance zones. On chart, this is visualised by the Support Resistance Channels Indicator. Traders can use this indicator to find significant supply and demand zones and trade them accordingly. The green support/ demand zone band with an upper boundary around 1.2940 has catapulted the USD/CAD into a precarious position. The position is precarious because the pair has already rejected at the resistance/ supply zone, with a scary level of stubbornness. Key levels to the upside to watch include the boundaries of this supply zone at 1.2965 and 1.2984. the most immediate levels of support o watch and take not of any breakage is 1.29400 and then 1.2936.
by BlackBull_Markets
Canada the big winner of energy?Energy markets are currently trying to find their footing. The loss of Russian crude to sanctions and the war in Ukraine has caused an impulse wave in the market. My last energy post was about the long term more generally being short on oil. Short-term the disruption will cause elevated prices for a while followed by a turndown. Due to growth in energy use worldwide even if the hydrocarbons share of the market shrinks due to green energy demands for decarbonization LNG still overall gets bigger. Waves of price action will depend on supply changes in both quantity and source through that transition. Waves of consumption and thus demand changes affect Europe negatively due to the current Ukrainian war along with emerging markets' needs for energy increasing for the next few decades till 2040. There is an exception if the G7 decides sanctions should stay on Russia long term. If Europe hits its storage targets for LNG and crude for winter they will have a moment to breathe and look around for a long-term solution to their problem. Canada offers a lot of solutions using LNG and could be one of if not the big beneficiary of the long-term needs of an expanding energy market through 2040. Exports on the coasts for LNG from North America generally could fill the gap left by Russia and meet demand from the emerging economies. From the government of Canada's website. "Eighteen LNG export facilities have been proposed in Canada – 13 in British Columbia, 2 in Quebec, and 3 in Nova Scotia – with a total proposed export capacity of 216 Million tons per annum (mtpa) of LNG (approximately 29 Billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas). Since 2011, 24 LNG projects have been issued long-term export licenses. Canada’s only operational LNG terminal (an import terminal) is Canaport LNG’s regasification import terminal located in Saint John, New Brunswick." Fliping this infrastructure to export will be a big job but if done quickly enough it can be used to avoid the use of coal worldwide in emerging economies and fix Europe's problems during the green transition. To be fair building out base load in the form of Nuclear energy is far more preferable with hydro storage and then variable load in the form of solar and wind. In the opinion of this author however better is better for emissions and short-term use of LNG to limit coal consumption is a good idea. Just don't let the Koch think tanks trumpet their own horn too much. The unfortunate use cases of nuclear fuel for reactors to make bombs as North Korea has demonstrated presents a geopolitical tool that would be far too easy to use and thus is limiting the expansion of the technology. Canada seems positioned to take advantage of exporting its resources to the rest of the world filling a gap left by Russia. It's a good opportunity for Canada. Time will tell if they take advantage of it. All the best, see you on the moon.
NYSE:CNQ
by GreatScottTheMoon
AUDcad Short H4 Double TopSeeing that AUDcad seems to be failing to close above recent highs. It appears that AUDcad was losing bullish momentum. COT data reported a weakening AUD and a strengthening CAD. Market came to test dynamic Daily Resistence. The test seems to have apprached the resistance in a rising wedge/flag correction. The top of this inner corrective channel formed a Double Top on the H4/H1 timeframes at its own resistance trendline. This appears to be enough confluence to consider selling AUDcad at this point. Use the discretion of your own entry strategies to confirm any possible entry opportunities that you may find. as for me.
Short
by OmegaDonTony
6
Telus no follow thruTelus just released their earnings today and they were just as good as estimated but never the less the stock had no reaction and is now selling off. The chart looks real ugly if you look at the Monthly and Quarterly window we have managed no follow thru after the big move down to start the year, the bulls are running out of time to step in and take this higher. My target is $27.59 for the quarterly and monthly low once we break past that I think we take out last years low of $24.93 I am looking at september 16th expiry monthly calls strike at either 29/28 or 27
TSX:TShort
by AthenaCapital
5
USD/CAD -15/07/2022-• Falling oil prices, massive USD strength underpins the pair's bullish move • Following recession fears, oil prices are trading sharply lower in the recent days and are now back to pre Russia-Ukraine war • Higher demand for safe haven USD, is putting pressure on all the pairs across the board • As a result, Loonie is losing strength against the Greenback, trading back above 1.30 • Hawkish BOC rate hike failed to convince bears, which surrendered shortly after reaching levels near mid 1.29s • In my recent posts, I highlighted a bullish ascending triangle pattern and stated that a successful, clear break above it would trigger a massive rally of the pair • So far, the breakout is successful thus I am expecting further rally towards 1.3630 level, a previous resistance that held prices twice in 2018, which also coincides with the 61.8% retracement level of the 2020-2021 major decline • Bullish trend remains intact as long as above 1.2950
Long
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
TSX trend channel CHAOSA quick follow up to my previous posts about the TSX or the colony of Canada, if you prefer. Quick observations on a long timeline weekly chart: We bounced off the top of the channel top for over a year Major roll over into a recession/depression/stagflation ... take your pick at this point Commodity super cycle talk seems to be done for now as we can assume the markets are generally manipulated (research gold) My expectations: We will at least hit the middle of the channel (middle line) and if things continue to get bad (nukes anyone), look for an overshoot to the downside. BUT... if the volatility shoots up in the the highs of the year, I can guarantee big ass bear market bounces. So go long on vix highs before you get back to the bear side. Hope that helps?
TSX:TSXShort
by coremonster
1
CPG Quality mid-cap energy, 15-20% near-term 1W upsideCrescent Point Energy Fundamental Analysis Price to earnings ratio is around 1.4X (substantially lower than the sector and equities broadly) Q1 Revenues were $950 Q1 Margin was 95% income to revenue Following a 25% decline in recent price from $10.25 per share to below $7, $CPG appears to technically bullish on a long-term (6-9 months). Energy equities has a recent pull-back following the June inflation reports, however, upward momentum has just built up with the latest price now trading higher than the price 10 bars ago. The Commodity Channel Index on longer trading scales (4H) shows that $CPG has been oversold. There is significant support channels at $6.90 (-5%) and resistance above at $7.95 (+9.42%). Above this, the next channels are $8.72 (+18.8), and $9.18 (25.1%) Risks: Exposed to global crude oil supply levels. Crescent Point Energy primarily is involved in the extraction of crude oil from Western Canada. Demand remains roughly around pre-COVID 2019 levels and therefore $WTI pricing is driven predominantly by supply. Currently, the price closed to below the 3-month mean, while the fundamentals of global crude supply have not changed significantly. There are reports that the conflict in Europe may advance to various possible scenarios, which may (a) see the Russian Federation limiting and stopping export of oil to its current trading partners in Europe, bringing $WTI to above $300 USD based on current supply and demand figures, and (b) the G7 and EU may cap the price they may pay for Russian oil. Competitors and related stocks in sector: $VET Vermillion Energy $OBE Obsedian Energy $WCP Whitecap Resources
C
by kelmokca