Volatile Week for USD/CAD? Volatile Week for USD/CAD?
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is anticipated to lower rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, bringing the policy rate down to 4.25%. This expectation follows a recent CPI report that indicated further easing in core inflation, coupled with weaker labor market data.
While a 50-basis point cut seems unlikely, it can't be entirely dismissed. In the July monetary policy meeting, Governor Tiff Macklem suggested that the focus may shift towards supporting economic growth rather than solely controlling inflation.
Additionally, Canada's August employment report is set to be released on Friday, coinciding with the US nonfarm payrolls report. This timing could heighten uncertainty and volatility in the USD/CAD pair.
A key level to watch will be the 1.3570-1.3600 zone, which previously served as a significant support area. Whether this area will be re-tested remains to be seen.
Canadadollar
Key Canadian trading events this week On Friday, alongside the US PCE data release, Canada will publish its Q1 GDP growth figures. Earlier in the week, Canada will also release its producer prices data. Note that US markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day.
According to the Royal Bank of Canada, the Canadian economy likely grew more quickly in Q1 2024 based on headline figures. However, this growth was still insufficient to keep pace with the surging population. Consequently, GDP per capita contracted for the seventh consecutive quarter.
Speaking of the Royal Bank of Canada, they will also be reporting its earnings this week, along with other major Canadian banks.
Tuesday, May 28
Earnings: Bank of Nova Scotia
Wednesday, May 29
Earnings: Bank of Montreal, National Bank, EQB Inc.
Thursday, May 30
Earnings: CIBC, Royal Bank of Canada
Friday, May 31
8:30 a.m. Canada Q1 GDP
Earnings: Laurentian Bank, Western Bank
The USD/CAD ended its four-day winning streak on Friday, closing down by half a percent at approximately 1.3660. Declining crude oil prices had been putting pressure on the CAD until now. Buyers could step in around this level for a potential bounce back though. Additionally, the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on June 2 could influence this pair. Market participants are watching for potential output cut extensions by major producers to address global oversupply concerns and support prices, which might cause hesitation among USD/CAD buyers at the 1.3660 level.
USDCAD → Two possible scenariohello guys...
I published before about the head and shoulders pattern and the rising pattern, you can check it that the target touched!
You can see the usdcad made a Quasimodo pattern and it is possible to start an upward movement to the blue area!
but the question is from where?! there are two scenarios:
1- starting from the QML (S1)
2- starting from the next level (S2)
which scenarios are you interested in?!
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AUD/CAD: Identifying Significant ZonesTraders,
Let's delve into the key zones for AUD/CAD:
We're witnessing a formidable bullish channel, but beware, it could break, triggering stop losses, only to rise again.
Our 1-hour zone is currently active. Consider partially closing positions when it aligns with the 15-minute and 4-hour zones.
Additionally, we'll increase our volume around the lower 1-hour zone.
Stay vigilant and adapt to market movements accordingly.
Best regards,
Exploring the Impact of CBDC on Forex Trading in CanadaI am reaching out to discuss an intriguing topic that has been gaining significant attention in the financial realm: the potential impact of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) on forex trading in Canada.
As you may be aware, the introduction of CBDC has sparked numerous discussions and debates among forex traders. The purpose of this idea is to delve into the concerns raised by these traders and shed light on how the implementation of CBDC could potentially affect their trading strategies, market liquidity, and overall dynamics of the forex market.
Forex traders have expressed several apprehensions regarding the introduction of CBDC. Firstly, they are concerned about the potential disruption to their trading strategies. Since CBDC would be a digital representation of the national currency, traders fear that its introduction could alter the existing forex market dynamics, making their current strategies less effective or even obsolete.
Moreover, market liquidity is another aspect that traders are closely monitoring. The introduction of CBDC could potentially impact the liquidity of the forex market, as it may attract a significant portion of trading volume towards this new digital currency. This shift in liquidity could have implications for traders who rely on the current market conditions and liquidity levels to execute their trades effectively.
Furthermore, the overall dynamics of the forex market might experience some changes with the introduction of CBDC. Traders are concerned about potential shifts in exchange rates, volatility, and the relationship between different currency pairs. These changes could create uncertainties and challenges for traders who have built their strategies based on the existing market dynamics.
In conclusion, the potential implications of CBDC on forex trading in Canada have raised valid concerns among traders. The impact on trading strategies, market liquidity, and overall forex market dynamics are critical factors that need to be carefully considered. Understanding these concerns and their potential consequences is crucial for traders and policymakers alike.
cointelegraph.com
Canadian Dollar - CAD - pairs(This post is to be a collection place/"container" for all CAD - Canadian Dollar - and related pairs.
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After weeks of consolidation near the bottom of a rising, long-term, weekly price trend channel, the USDCAD looks to be poised for a near-term, +500 pt topside breakout, toward visible targets around the 1.3650s level.
The well-formed, large bullish Wedge further suggests a potentially swift, upward price move.
The USDCAD Daily;
Short USD/CAD with big announcements due With US CPI due to land in the next 6-8 hours, I'm speculating that it will come in low and the USD will weaken off the back of it.
Combining this with the Bank of Canada also announcing their next interest rate decision an hour and a half after US CPI, if they do hike rates I can see strength in the $CAD.
Good pairs trade here for short USD/long CAD.
Will confirm if correct in 8 hours...
Will the GCAD push to 1.35?I think price will be able to push to the 1.35 lvl as time goes on. The UK is struggling to keep its economy afloat while simultaneously the BOE is attempting to fight inflation. One or the other needs to happen and a soft landing is not going to happen, especially with double digit inflation. Canada's economy I think will be able to resist a recession. It may happen, but won't be as severe as other countries. Canada also has a trade surplus along with Australia. The BOC is holding on rate hikes but will raise rates if needed. Oil is pushing lower, but in the future, is likely to rise as OPEC+ looks to keep prices higher and the on going Russia/Ukraine issues. I think the move lower, will happen towards the end of the 2nd Quarter/beginning of the 3rd Quarter and last up until the end of the 4th Quarter or into next year. We seem to be in the eye of the storm, and there is something bound to set something off. Regardless though, how long can the UK economy hold on?
NAFTA vs. the EU; A "generational" Long! (but wait for it!)OK, so the CAD/HUF is not the most liquid of pairs - although quite tradable -, it is the pair which best expresses the upcoming abyss, the EU as a whole staring into.
As for conviction; I owned some real estate all over the EU (not that I cared for them, too much. It was just a good price at the time.) BUT I've completed dumping them all - about 4 months ago. The funds raised by those sales are about to be dumped into this upcoming Long. This is just my personal take on it but I also feel very comfortable with this trade setup, including for the (very) long term.
Here, the idea is, to go long the strongest NAFTA components vs. the weakest EU component.
Everything that could be said about the Loonie and the HU Forint has been already said in previous posts - attached - thus, the only thing left here is to execute at the right time - clearly depicted on the main chart!
The Monthly;
CADCHF: Time to Grow! 🇨🇦🇨🇭
Update for our yesterday's post on CADCHF:
it turned out that a double bottom that we spotted yesterday
turned into an ascending triangle formation.
The price broke its horizontal neckline and closed above that.
I expect growth now!
Goals will be 0.756 / 0.76
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EUR/CAD - Short Sell on Higher Oil & Interest Rate DifferentialsIn this video I breakdown why EUR/CAD continues to weaken to the downside as Higher Oil prices support the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar.
I also breakdown how interest rate differentials favors investors to sell euros to Buy Canadian Government Bonds paying a significant premium over Bunds.
Europe's economic outlook continues to turn grim as the war in Ukraine is very damaging for Europe's economy that is heavily reliant on Russian Oil and Gas exports.
Wait for a sell signal with CADCHFH4 time frame.
Structure: Downtrend.
Price formed a reversal pattern and broke the Key level at 0.72300.
Wait for a sell signal and the profit target is the 0.71000 price area.
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Wish you all have a good trading day!
Waiting for a buying opportunity with USDCADH4 time frame.
Structure: Uptrend.
The price broke the Key level, the previous downtrend.
The price had a retracement move to the 61.8 Fibonacci zone and made a new bot then rose sharply to the current Key level 1.27000.
Wait for price to break Key level again and get buy signal after retest with USDCAD.
The profit target is the 1.2900-1.29500 price zone.
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Wish you all have a good trading day!