Canadian
CAD/USD 15-Minute Analysis: Head & Shoulders BreakoutCAD/USD 15-Minute Analysis: Head & Shoulders Breakout
On the 15-minute time frame, CAD/USD has formed a Head and Shoulders pattern, and the price has broken below the neckline trendline, signaling potential bearish momentum. Here's my idea:
Entry:AT 0.4146$
Target: The next significant support level, marked in the green zone.
This pattern suggests further downside, but as always, manage your risk carefully and monitor price action as we approach the target zone.
Let me know your thoughts and share your analysis below! 👍
Why is the Canadian Dollar Outperforming Expectations?A Deep Dive into the Unexpected Resilience of the CAD
In a landscape marked by economic uncertainty, the Canadian dollar has defied the odds, exhibiting remarkable resilience. This unexpected strength is a result of a complex interplay of factors, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, market dynamics, and global commodity trends.
The Federal Reserve's Pivotal Role
The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy has been a key driver of the CAD's rally. The Fed's hints at potential rate cuts, especially in response to a weakening labor market, have weakened the U.S. dollar, boosting the appeal of other G10 currencies, including the CAD. This has created a favorable environment for the Canadian dollar, as investors seek higher-yielding alternatives to the U.S. dollar.
Short Covering and Positioning Dynamics
Another significant factor contributing to the CAD's strength is a wave of short covering. Traders had previously bet against the CAD, anticipating a divergence between the easing cycles of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada. However, as the U.S. dollar weakened and the CAD began to rise, these short positions became increasingly unsustainable. Traders were forced to unwind their bets, adding momentum to the CAD's rally.
The Impact of Rising Oil Prices
Canada's significant oil exports make it particularly sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices. The recent increase in crude oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and potential supply disruptions, has provided a further boost to the CAD. As a major oil producer, Canada benefits from higher oil prices, which can lead to increased exports and a stronger currency.
Assessing the Risks and Challenges
While the CAD's rally has been impressive, it is important to acknowledge the potential risks and challenges that could undermine its momentum. The Bank of Canada's rate cuts, although expected, could narrow yield differentials and put pressure on the CAD. Additionally, ongoing global uncertainties and subdued risk appetite could limit the loonie's upside potential.
Key Data to Watch
Several key data releases will be closely monitored in the coming weeks. Canada's GDP data will provide insights into the health of the Canadian economy and could influence the Bank of Canada's policy trajectory. Meanwhile, U.S. economic reports, such as PCE, will be watched for potential shifts that could affect the USD/CAD exchange rate.
Conclusion
The Canadian dollar's unexpected resilience is a testament to its strength in a challenging economic environment. While the current momentum is positive, investors should remain cautious and closely monitor key economic indicators. By understanding the underlying factors driving the CAD's rally and assessing the potential risks, investors can make informed decisions about their currency exposure.
GBPCAD: Strong start for GBP fading out?GBP has been the strongest performing currency so far this year - I keep asking myself why??
Country in a recession
Stagnant economy
Limp Central Bank
With today's unemployment reading I'm expecting this to be the start of bearish involvement in sterling, I'm starting with this pair.
Think oil has dropped a lot and could be ready to bounce up which is good for CAD.
Seem to have broken the ascending trendline and retesting it now, failure to break back in will signify a change in direction.
My first target is 1.708, around the MA50 (daily) and clear support.
CADUSD: Looking very bearish to meI'm expecting to see USD strength through March with a Hawkish Fed that has strength ibn their economy, compared to all other crosses.
Looking at the 4hr chart I'm seeing a couple of bearish engulfing candles and therefor looking for a short in an LTF.
There is very choppy water between 0.735 and 0.7366 so we may see a lot of indecision here but I'm overall bearish and expect the drop down to major support.
GBPCAD SHORTSGBPCAD since the beginning of the week have been moving bearish and in respect to this, I plan to stick to the trend, the daily and the weekly also shows the bearish trend, and to follow this I expect this pair to retrace to the 50 Exponential moving average and we short to the 800 Exponential moving average.
Ummmm.... Hey as you can see, I don't know diddly about charting but hopefully the fancy bullseye got your attention. This ETF appears to be in distress!! The only reason I'm reviewing is that a friend said it has been a MF recommendation. Sometimes they seem to have good timing but this one and my advice to my friend was, even if you believe in the fundamentals of the ETF, the economy is still in a world of pain and Cnd banks are still under mad pressure. The Div looks nice...maybe after it closes the gap I'll take a look again after that but right now the chart is ugly and I'd stay eagle eyes and not involved.
Canadian Dollar - CAD - pairs(This post is to be a collection place/"container" for all CAD - Canadian Dollar - and related pairs.
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After weeks of consolidation near the bottom of a rising, long-term, weekly price trend channel, the USDCAD looks to be poised for a near-term, +500 pt topside breakout, toward visible targets around the 1.3650s level.
The well-formed, large bullish Wedge further suggests a potentially swift, upward price move.
The USDCAD Daily;
AUDCAD: Awesome breakout, time to fall back?Had a great breakout of the falling wedge that I called out in an earlier idea (I missed the trade as it happened sooner than I expected), but now I believe we'll fall back from resistance (we can see some rejection on the daily) before confirming the trend change higher.
No real fundamentals for this, pure price action.
Bullish Again on the USDCADOn this pair, we see bullishness across multiple timeframes. Market is bullish on the Monthly chart, all the way down to the 1-hour chart.
On the 1-hour chart, we see the market has just made a new high with 6 PBs up.
We are expecting the price to retrace bearish into the PB, come into our refined zone, and from there we will watch out for bullish reversals to take our trade long. Our targer for this trade will be the 1-hour liquidity target above.
Another Trading OpportunitySo yes we missed the previous swing. Not because our analysis were wrong, but rather because of our refinement of the PB to a much smaller zone.
No need to reflect on it or worry about it for too long. It is gone. Let it go. So we move our focus to the next swing.
The market is setting up for the next swing. We have a new PB and we are getting ready to jump on it. As always, we have marked out our refined zone from the PB and now we are waiting.
Price is currently retracing bearish. We expect prices to come into our zone, and from there we will look to trade this pair. As you already know, if you are regular with our analysis, the target is the 1 hour liquidity target up above.
EURCAD: Friday rejection from dynamic trendlineWe saw another rejection from a long standing descending dynamic trendline on Friday, I'm expecting a fall from here back down to support around 1.4275.
Will be closely watching action around the 1.435 mark, but overall we're printing HH's and HL's on the higher timeframes (although still within a range), let's see what happens but I think we're definitely headed south from here.
Bulls now in ControlThe 1 hour chart has maintained its bullish momentum fron yesterday. It has gone ahead to clear out the 4 hour zone and breach the 4 hour Bearish PB.
Trend is now Bullish on the 1 hour and 4 hour timeframes, and this brings them in sync with the direction of the Daily chart timeframe
With our new Bullish PB in place on the 1 hour chart, we have marked out our zone for expected Bullish reversal. We will be looking to take trades when the market returns to the zone, using one of the methods taught on the Panzy Pips course
Bullish on the 1 Hour, Should we TRADE ...?
After successive trades to liquidity target, the market seems to have lost its Bearish momentum for a bit. This has seen the market take out our zone in a bid to turning Bullish.
For now, we are on a middle course. With the 1 hour reversing Bullish while the 4 hour maintains its Bearish momentum, it is difficult to say whichi direction the market would go for certain.
A second look, not at the charts, but to reservoir of knowledge would reveal that the 1 hour is expected to move in the direction of the 4 hour. And so the 1 hour Bulish impulse is expected to form a retracement for the 4 hour chart, following which the 1 hour impulse will be wiped out by the 4 hour extension.
This is my perspective on this pair
Curaleaf: Setback for a Comeback 🌪️The price of Curaleaf has set back significantly since its impressive rise in September. Soon, however, it should continue, as the price has now reached the green target zone between CAD 5.50 and CAD 4.33, where we locate the low of the green wave 2. Following the low, there should then be significant gains again with the further green five-wave move, reaching CAD 12.
USDCAD: CURVE ANALYSIS (2D)SLO2 @ 1.3805 ⏳
SLO1 @ 1.3695 ⏳
SSO @ 1.3625 ⏳
TP1 @ 1.3485
TP2 @ 1.3305
TP3 @ 1.3175
TP4 @ 1.2975
BLO @ 1.2810 ⏳
— PA on this pair has been insane
— ALL three of our TPs were triggered, but ironically it retraced so hard that it returned back to the Supply Zone.
— Well, it's time to get paid for the second time.
— Here's a new setup
Canopy Growth: C'mon, Do Something 👉The price of Canopy Growth is currently relatively flat. However, we believe a significant setback is needed to complete the white wave II in the turquoise target zone between CAD 0.430 and CAD 0.265, as expected. Only then should a significant move higher occur in the form of the turquoise wave 1, which should extend to around CAD 1.20. Alternatively, we see a 47% probability that the price is already in this wave. This scenario would occur if the price breaks the resistance at $0.8000 without reaching our target zone
🔥 NEW: USDCAD 🔥 SHORT 🔥RESISTANCE @ 1.3573
SLO @ 1.3570 ⏳
TP1 @ 1.3485
TP2 @ 1.3305
TP3 @ 1.3175
TP4 @ 1.2975
SUPPORT @ 1.2925
BLO @ 1.2810 ⏳
— PA on this pair has been insane
— ALL three of our TPs were triggered, but ironically it retraced so hard that it returned higher than TP1
— Well, it's time to get paid for the second time.
— Here's a new SLO
🔥 NEW: GBPCAD 🔥 DT SWING 🔥Requested by: @YOUNGMILLIONS21
SLO @ 1.7310 📉
SSO @ 1.7250 ⏳
TP1 @ 1.6725
TP2 @ 1.6235
TP3 @ 1.5875
TP4 @ 1.5325
BLO @ 1.4860 ⏳
While major moving averages are reflective of strong buying pressure, overall, the major oscillators are nearing indicating sell signals.
This could be point to Price Action being in Supply.
The RSI indicator and the MACD indicator are neutral, but the Stochastic oscillator is overbought.
STRATEGY: PIP MOVEMENT
Scalping: 10 pips
Intraday trading: 10-50 pips
Swing trading: 50-100 pips
Position trading: 100-200 pips