Sell the breakoutWe had a shooting star followed by bearish 3 crows (ranks 7th among bearish reversal patterns) on MONTHLY USDCAD chart. Price already did the pullback into monthly 3 crows pattern and now we should be rolling down...And on daily we just got very fine bearish Counter Atack, Evening Star and double top. Price might pull back half way into the evening star before falling. Look for bearish setups on 4 hours and 1 hour charts.
Canadian-dollar
Bull with the usd in their grip, I am long on USDCADI am placing a buy here with the bulls on USDCAD because here after careful review, trend analysis and pattern recognition on the 1hr time frame for entry I have identified an opportunity to buy for the USDCAD pair with confluences to match. I see 1.30150 as a daily target SUPPORT AREA 8/2/2018. Take a look at my analysis I would love your feedback. My trades a specifically for intra day trading I am completely out of the market by 5pm EST each day with my profit or loss taken
Weekly and monthly Bullish EngulfingsWe are at the start of a bullish uptrend on weekly after a fine bullish engulfing pattern off Fibonacci support level. Bullish engulfing was also on monthly chart. Look for long entries on smaller timeframes. Price already tested back the middle of monthly engulfing candle. The bottom tails of engulfing patterns act as major supports. First major resistance expected at 85.680 (previous high, Ichimoku cloud and upper Bollinger Band - Monthly resistance at 85.568-85.643). But I believe price will get to the upper band of Hurst channel at about 92.000 as price is making higher highs on weekly. CAD is also strong. PS. My trendlines are after CLOSE (Line chart).
USDCAD change of paceI believe that we will see some lower prices in the pair in the upcoming days. As I am writing this, we are at the opening of the canadian market and we just had a huge bearish engulfing pattern on a lower time frame after a very painful run up after last week's fall. I'm taking a light position short and will add as we break new supports.
CAD/JPY Short SetupFundamentals:
- NAFTA Negotiations uncertain, any signal at termination would cause loonie to sell-off
- JPY tight inverse correlation to global stock market, therefore a sell-off in markets would benefit this positioning
Technicals:
- Clean break of uptrend
- 100 Day MA crossover
- Ichimoku transition line crossing baseline
GBP/CAD 4H Chart: Reveals another patternThe GBP/CAD pair was last reviewed at the start of December, when it rebounded against the lower trend line of a long term support line. It has to be noted that this trend line is a rather unusual one, but has proven itself throughout the second half of 2017.
That resulted in a rebound and an eventual breaking of the at the time active channel down pattern, which at the time was in the center of attention. However, the pair did not form a medium term channel up pattern, as it could have been expected.
Instead the pair has revealed a different and broader channel down pattern, which is set to keep challenging the support line.
EUR/CAD 4H Chart: Meets strong resistanceThe common European currency is hard to chart against the Canadian Dollar. However, due to the high demand for the pair on the Swiss Foreign Exchange, the Dukascopy Analytics team is doing one of the rare reviews of the pair.
In general the currency exchange rate is beginning a large scale decline due to bouncing off the resistance of a massive dominant channel up pattern. The decline has not been charted. However, our analysts have drawn a speculative channel down pattern.
In regards to the short term, the pair recently hit a strong resistance cluster at the 1.4950 mark, which has forced a retreat.
EUR/CAD 4H Chart: Meets Medium ResistanceThe common European currency has recently reached the resistance of a rather large scale descending channel pattern against the Canadian Dollar. This resistance has been holding its ground for three times during the last weeks.
The reasons for the various attempts of the Euro to break through can be found in the various support levels below the currency exchange rate. For example the 55 and 100–period simple moving averages together with the lower trend line of a rising wedge pattern have caused short term rebounds.
In regards to the future, the situation is almost going to remain unchanged, as the rate gets squeezed into a short term triangle pattern between the medium term channel’s resistance and various support levels. Afterwards, a breakout to the downside should occur.
CAD/JPY 1D Chart: Fibonacci and ChannelThe Canadian Dollar by large is doing a long term rebound against the Japanese Yen, as the rate has formed a long term ascending channel pattern. However, there are some details that need to be taken into account, if one wants to speculated on this pairs movements.
First of all the rate seems to be highly influenced by the Fibonacci retracement levels, which can be observed on the chart. Secondly, the retracement levels only mark the approximate location of a zone, where the rate might change direction.
Third and last in the short term the weekly pivot points seem to be playing a large role, as the SMAs are far below the exchange rate.
EUR/CAD at significant crossroadsThe common European currency continues to lose value against the Canadian Dollar, and the rate is set to continue to decline in the future. However, the pair is set to find loads of support in the short term.
There are two base scenarios. First the pair might find support in one of the various support levels form 1.4470 to 1.4550 levels. Afterwards it could surge, break the junior descending channel and reveal a more dominant medium term pattern.
The second scenario would consist of the already drawn junior channel down pattern holding its ground and breaking through the various support levels until the rate reaches below the 1.44 mark.
CAD/JPY a long set upIf one looks at the charts, which involved the Canadian Dollar, first thing one notices is the massive jump of the Loonie against anything else. That is the jump of the unexpected Bank of Canada rate raise, which was a purely fundamental move.
Although, the fundamental move did not destroy, but rather helped to map various patterns. For example against the Japanese Yen it can be spotted that the Canadian Dollar will continue to surge in the medium term.
In regards to the short term, one can notice that the currency pair is heading for the first weekly resistance, which is located at the 89.87 mark.
EUR/CAD reconfirms dominant trend lineAlthough the common European currency already met with the long term, most dominant channel’s support against the Canadian Dollar, another retreat to reconfirm the trend line has occurred.
Actually, the rate recently reconfirmed the ascending channel pattern’s upper trend line twice, as it rebounded against the trend line and the monthly S1 just below the 1.47 mark.
In the near future the pair is set to reach the combined resistance of the weekly PP near 1.4825 mark together with various approaching SMAs. However, even if a decline occurs, the long term support should force the pair higher.
CAD/JPY reaches short term resistanceRecently the Canadian Dollar bounced off a dominant channel up pattern’s lower trend line against the Japanese Yen. As a result of the rebound a short term ascending channel pattern has revealed itself.
The pattern is set to guide the Loonie higher in its surge against the Japanese Yen. However, there is one issue. The dominant pattern is a much larger scale than the junior pattern, which means that something is missing. The missing part is a medium scale pattern. It is most likely going to reveal itself in the near future.
Meanwhile, in regards to the short term, the weekly R2 at 88.6730 is the next target for the currency exchange rate.
EUR/CAD Guided by the medium term patternThe review of the EUR/CAD pair is done due to the demand of traders. Traders want to trade this pair, as it is one of the options to use to trade the Euro without the US Dollar’s fundamental influence.
However, the recent surge of the common European currency can not be mapped in a pattern against the Canadian Dollar. Instead the fact that the pair should head to the upper trend line of a medium scale channel up pattern could be used for guidance.
In accordance with the hypothesis, the rate should soon rebound against the weekly R1 and the 50.00% Fibo at the 1.4950 mark and continue to surge above the 1.50 level.
USD/CAD breaks junior patternThe previous forecast for the USD/CAD pair was wrong on one account. The pair did not need the additional support of the weekly S1 at 1.25 mark to break the junior patterns resistance.
After dropping on the release of the Canadian Retail Sales on Tuesday the currency exchange rate found support in the lower trend line of the dominant pattern. The support was strong enough to propel the rate through the resistance of the junior pattern and the 55-hour SMA.
In regards to the short term future, the pair needs to break past the 100-hour SMA at 1.26 mark to surge up to the strong resistance cluster near the 1.2640 mark.
EUR/CAD 4H Chart: Channel UpThe common European currency recently passed a significant cluster of resistance against the Canadian Dollar. The cluster is made up of the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2015 low and 2016 high levels and the monthly R1. Both of these levels of significance are located near the 1.4920 mark. However, they have begun to provide support in the pair’s efforts to surge.
Meanwhile, resistance is still being provided by the upper trend line of a ascending channel pattern, which has guided the pair for almost half a month. If both, the resistance and support hold their ground, the currency exchange rate is most likely going to form a new ascending pattern, which would have a 45 degree incline.
Short GBPCAD key RSI and Fibo confluencePrice has hit 423.6 fibo resistant level and also RSI is coming down from a high overbought position in line with Stoch. I believe that it will push down to the horizontal resist now turn support at the 1.75294 level. Further confirmation in 4H chart shows it to be on a downward pressure.
Canadian Dollar Lower on Oil Drop and US Tax WishesThe Canadian dollar had a negative trading session on Monday. The loonie was pressured downwards as the price of oil retreated and the USD advanced on the hopes President Trump will present a tax reform plan this week. The results of the first round of French presidential elections sparked an appetite in riskier assets hurting Canadian bonds as investors sold fixed income looking for higher yields.
Canadian wholesale data showed a step back of 0.2 percent in February. This is the first contraction after four straight months of gains. The forecast had anticipated a larger drop but the indicator did little to help the dollar. Wednesday’s release of retail sales will have a higher impact as the gap between the US and the Canadian economy widens.
Canadian Dollar USDCAD increased 0.0020 or 0.14%. The Canadian Dollar lost ground, after Canada’s consumer price index (CPI) advanced less-than-anticipated by 1.6% YoY in March. The pair is expected to its find support at 1.3396 and its first resistance at 1.3494.
With 1.3456 minor support intact, intraday bias remains mildly on the upside for 1.3534 resistance. Break will target 1.3598 high next. Decisive break there will confirm resumption whole medium term rally from 12.460 and target next medium term fibonacci level at 1.3838. . On the downside, below 1.3456 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation. But retreat should be contained well above 1.3222 support and bring another rally.
Canadian DollarWe may finally see the USD head and shoulders drop. The USD has come to the neckline. A pull back in the USD has created buying opportunities for CAD, AUD, NZD and others. CAD fought back lower prices.
Gartley has been achieved if bulls can raise the USD, and the CAD will fall off the Gartley. If the USD drops we may achieve a Butterfly for the CAD.