Canadiandollar
USDCAD - 4H Bearish signsThe FX:USDCAD pair fell sharply after news of Canada responding to potential US tariff changes under Donald Trump. It has now reached the bottom of the trading range on the 4H timeframe.
💡 Key Strategy:
Wait for breakout confirmations or enter on a pullback.
Avoid rushing in; price action confirmations are essential for entries!
Patience and strategy always win. Let's trade smart! 📉
USDCAD Best sell opportunity in 5 years!The USDCAD is standing on unique grounds as it is just below the 9-year Resistance Zone and is consolidating. Last time it hit this Zone was on the week of March 16 2020 and as you can see it got brutally rejected.
Both the January 18 2016 and March 16 2020 tops have similar 1W RSI patterns and after their rejection, the price's first stop was on the 0.236 Fibonacci level. As a result, our Target is 1.26000 on this unique long-term sell opportunity.
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The Canadian Dollar Index CXY on 1WEEK timeframe with cycles. Just a coincidence, I'm sure... But Canada's current Prime Minister just resigned exactly at the end of the 3rd cycle on a 9 year major support level. Is the Canadian dollar about to reverse? Pay attention to Canadian news over the next 6 months to support this idea.
US DOLLAR WEAKENING WHILE CANADIAN DOLLAR STRENGTHENING!With USD/CAD showing weakness, the pair is likely to fall and revert to its mean.
N.B!
- USDCAD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#usdcad
#dollarindex
#canadiandollar
CADCHF Technical Analysis! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for CADCHF below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 0.6285
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators : Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 0.6310
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
CADJPY Higher Low formed. Strong buy opportunity.The CADJPY pair has formed a new Higher Low on the 4-month Channel Up pattern that started after the 2.5-year Channel Up bottomed its Bearish Leg on the August 05 Low. Being now below even the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), this is technically a great buy opportunity.
The previous long-term Bullish Leg hit the 0.9 Fibonacci level before retracing, which gives us a 117.100 Target for Q1 2025.
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EURCAD: Bullish Move After Breakout 🇪🇺🇨🇦
EURCAD broke and closed above a key daily/intraday horizontal resistance.
After a breakout, the price retested the broken structure
and formed a narrow horizontal range on that.
The violation of its upper boundary with a bullish imbalance
is a strong bullish signal.
Chances are high that the pair will go up and reach at least 1.4928 level soon.
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USDCAD: Excellent short term buy opportunity.USDCAD is heavily bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 67.681, MACD = 0.007, ADX = 22.105) as it trades inside a Channel Up, supported by the 4H MA50. The 4H MACD is forming a Bullish Cross and in the past 2 months this has been a strong bullish signal. In line with the previous bullish waves, we are aiming for a +2.60% rise from the bottom (TP = 1.42850).
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AUDCAD Buy signal at the bottom of the Channel Up.The AUDCAD pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the September 27 2023 Low and at the moment it is in the process of forming a new Higher Low. All previous Higher Lows were formed one the 1D RSI almost touched the 30.00 oversold barrier. Right now it is a little more than 5.0 points away from it, so buying starts getting highly favorable on the current levels.
In any case, a break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) would confirm the start of the new Bullish Leg and if it follows the previous sequence, it should peak above the -0.5 Fibonacci extension. As a result, our 0.95000 Target is more than valid for the medium-term.
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EURCAD Strong medium-term buy opportunity.The EURCAD pair gave us an excellent sell signal last time (September 12, see chart below) that easily hit our 1.46550 Target:
This time we have a confirmed bottom just a week ago on the 0.786 Channel Fibonacci level, similar to the June 08 2023 bottom, both accompanied by a 1D MACD Bullish Cross.
As a result, we turn bullish on this pair targeting 1.5000, which is just below the 0.236 Channel Fib, similar to the July 18 2023 High.
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USDCAD top of Channel Up rejection. Strong sell.The USDCAD pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Up pattern since the July 14 2023 Low and on Monday it hit its top (Higher Highs trend-line) and got rejected. This is a similar peak to November 01 2023, with the 1D RSI turning downwards as well on an early sell signal.
Initially, we expect at least the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) to be tested, so our Target is 1.37300.
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The Market Code: Decoding Opportunity in the Canadian Dollar**The Market Code: Decoding Opportunity in the Canadian Dollar**
There is a moment when the veil is lifted, and the truth becomes clear—when the illusion of chaos resolves into perfect order. This week, I have read the code written within the Commitment of Traders (COT) data, and it reveals a symphony of opportunity, waiting for those who are ready to listen.
The markets are alive with setups—Currencies, Energies, Metals, Grains, Treasuries—all pulsing with hidden potential. But let me be clear: not all secrets are free. I will offer you only a taste, a glimpse of what lies beneath the surface. The rest? That’s reserved for those who dare to journey deeper into the rabbit hole.
Among the revelations, one stands above the rest: **The Canadian Dollar is primed for longs**. But do not mistake this for a call to rush blindly into the market. This is the *setup*, not the signal. To act with precision, you must wait for the *trigger*. This distinction is critical, yet misunderstood by most.
The Codes Decoded
-Commercial Positioning: The commercials—those who understand the market better than anyone—are close to holding their longest positions in three years. The last time they were this long was in August, just before a sharp bullish move. Coincidence? Hardly. This is the first code of the Canadian Dollar setup.
-Open Interest Surge: During the recent multi-week price decline, Open Interest has spiked. Ask yourself: *Who is driving this increase?* The data reveals it’s the commercials, increasing their longs. This is not noise—it’s a signal.
-Bearish Sentiment Extreme: Investment advisors are at a relative extreme in bearishness. Contrarians thrive on such moments, as extremes are where the most compelling opportunities are born.
-Valuation Insight: The Canadian Dollar is undervalued relative to U.S. Treasuries. When valuation and positioning align, the market is speaking in a language few understand.
-Seasonal Trends: The true seasonal trend supports a long, pointing to upward movement into January. History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.
-Small Speculator Shorts: Small speculators are heavily short—an extreme in their positioning over the last 26 weeks. This is yet another clue in the unfolding narrative.
-Technical Support: %R is signaling a buy zone, and the weekly stochastic is oversold. The technicals align with the fundamentals—yet another piece of the puzzle.
The Question
What will you do with this knowledge? Will you watch from the sidelines, content to let the markets continue to elude you? Or will you take the red pill, embrace the truth, and step into a new understanding of how the markets truly operate?
The Invitation
I’m not here to sell you illusions or half-truths. I’m here to show you how to *see*. The Commitment of Traders strategy isn’t a system—it’s a lens that reveals the market’s music, the hidden rhythm that guides price action.
If you’re ready to go beyond the surface, to see the *why* behind the *what*, reach out. I’ll teach you how to decode these markets for yourself. The rabbit hole goes deep, but I will guide you.
The choice is yours: stay in the comfort of ignorance, or step into the unknown and discover what lies beyond.
Are you ready to see how deep the rabbit hole goes?
EURCAD: Strong Bearish Pressure 🇪🇺🇨🇦
While USDCAD looks strongly bullish,
bears keep pushing EURCAD lower.
The price broke and closed below both a key daily horizontal support and a falling trend line - a vertical support.
It opens a potential for a bearish continuation lower at least to 1.479
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NZDCAD Buy opportunity at the bottom of the 1-year Channel Up.The NZDCAD pair hit our 0.85650 Target as discussed on our last idea (August 22, see chart below) and then got immediately rejected:
The rejection initiated the Bearish Leg of the 1-year Channel Up and the price is approaching once more the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the pattern. The previous 2 Higher Lows were priced on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, which is slightly below, but the 1D MACD is forming a Bullish Cross today, which has been an absolute buy signal this past year.
As a result, we turn bullish on this pair, targeting Resistance 1 at 0.86450.
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USDCAD Sell signal on the 2 year ResistanceUSDCAD is about to hit the 2 year Resistance of the October 13th 2022 High.
The price is on its highest level since and with the 1D MACD having formed a Bearish Cross, we are on the ideal sell entry.
Sell and target the 0.618 Fibonacci level at 1.34250.
Previous chart:
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The Canadian Dollar: What Every Forex Trader Needs To KnowThe Canadian Dollar: What Every Forex Trader Needs To Know
Among the major currencies covering the largest part of forex trading volume is the Canadian dollar (CAD), colloquially known as the "Loonie" due to the image of a loon bird on the back of the C$1 coin. This article aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the CAD, a brief overview of its historical journey, and the factors driving it in the forex market today.
Understanding the Canadian Dollar
Over the years, the CAD has weathered fluctuations and policy shifts, impacting not only its value but also its influence in the world of finance.
Originally, Canada used the British pound as its official currency, but it was gradually replaced by the Canadian dollar, which has been the country’s official currency since 1858.
Following the establishment of the Bretton Woods system, Canada allowed its currency to fluctuate freely between 1950 and 1962, a period that culminated in a significant devaluation event. Subsequently, Canada adopted a fixed exchange rate until 1970, at which point mounting inflation pressures prompted the government to return to a floating currency system.
Canadian Economy
Canada boasts a stable and resource-rich economy that is also well diversified, yet when examining Canada's economic landscape, it's crucial to take into account its significant involvement in commodities. Canada is a significant producer and exporter of petroleum, minerals, wood products, and grains.
Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate Catalysts
Various factors influence the value of the Loonie in the forex market. Here, we will explore some of the primary catalysts.
Monetary Policy Decisions Impact CAD Predictions
Interest rate announcements by the Bank of Canada usually take place eight times a year on predetermined dates. Higher interest rates often attract foreign investment in the economy, leading to an appreciation of the CAD's value. Following two consecutive pauses, the Bank of Canada surprisingly increased its overnight lending rate by 25 basis points on June 7th, 2023, reaching 4.75 per cent. This decision was primarily prompted by a rise in inflation to 4.4 per cent, marking the first uptick in 10 months. Notably, the EUR/CAD exchange rate exhibited a pronounced reaction to this event.
Economic Data
Key economic indicators encompass the publication of GDP figures, retail sales data, industrial production statistics, inflation rates, trade balances, and jobs data. These reports follow established schedules; for example, you can use FXOpen’s economic calendar to track major events. Improvements in that data can be bullish for CAD, while a deterioration could exert negative pressure on the currency.
In September, Canada’s GDP for the second quarter of 2023 signalled stalling economic activity, remaining unchanged from the first quarter against expectations. Unsurprisingly, there was a significant bullish market reaction in the USD/CAD exchange rate.
The Impact of Oil on Canadian Dollar Trading
Canada is one of the world's largest oil producers, and its currency is closely tied to the price of crude oil. A rise in oil prices typically boosts the Canadian dollar. Conversely, falling oil prices can weaken the currency. The oil price war in March 2020 between Saudi Arabia and Russia had a direct and adverse impact on the Loonie. The CAD depreciated due to the country's significant reliance on oil exports and the reduced revenues resulting from the sharp drop in oil prices.
Unique Factors to Consider in a Canadian Dollar Forecast
In addition to the aforementioned catalysts, there are unique factors that forex traders consider when analysing the Canadian dollar buying rate today.
Proximity to the United States
Proximity to the United States is a defining factor in the performance of the CAD, which is notably influenced by the intricate economic ties with that country. These ties extend beyond trade to factors such as cross-border investments and shared financial markets. Positive developments in the US, such as robust economic growth or shifts in monetary policy, can elevate demand for Canadian exports, thereby potentially strengthening the CAD. Conversely, economic challenges in the US may disrupt trade flows between the two nations, leading to a potential weakening of the CAD.
Commodity Prices and the Canadian Dollar Trend
Apart from oil, Canada exports various other commodities, including metals and agricultural products. Fluctuations in global commodity prices can influence the CAD, as they impact Canada's export revenues and, respectively, the performance of the Canadian dollar. When commodity prices are on the upswing, there tends to be a surge of incoming capital, which positively affects CAD exchange rates.
If you're eager to find new opportunities, you can visit FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform.
Trade Relations
Canada is a major player in global trade, having significant partnerships. News or events related to these agreements can significantly influence the CAD's performance.
- USMCA (formerly NAFTA): The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement is pivotal for Canada, as a significant portion of its exports are destined for the United States. Any changes or developments in USMCA can impact the CAD's value.
- European Union: Canada has a Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with the European Union (EU). This trade deal promotes exports to EU countries and fosters economic cooperation.
- Asia-Pacific: Canada's trade relations extend to Asia-Pacific nations, where it actively trades with countries like China and Japan.
The imposition of tariffs or the eruption of trade tensions can exert substantial pressure on the CAD. Tariffs can lead to reduced exports, affecting Canada's trade balance and potentially weakening the currency. Conversely, the resolution of trade disputes can lead to a stronger CAD.
Geopolitical Stability
Considering Canada's relatively robust economic position, the nation boasts a relatively elevated interest rate compared to other developed economies. Canada has also earned recognition for its prudent fiscal management, striking a harmonious balance between a government-influenced economy and a more laissez-faire approach. This characteristic becomes particularly relevant during times of worldwide economic instability. While not a reserve currency like the US dollar, the Canadian dollar is relatively stable.
Takeaway
To navigate the dynamic world of forex trading effectively, understanding the factors influencing the Canadian dollar's value is paramount. Among the unique features of the Loonie are its close ties to the US economy, reliance on commodities, and unique geopolitical position. Already have an idea of how to trade the CAD’s fluctuations? Open an FXOpen account and expand your journey right away.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
CADCHF Strong short-term buy signal.The CADCHF pair is about to test its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as it is coming off a 2-month Support Zone rebound. A break above the Channel Down would confirm the buy signal but with the price within a consolidation Rectangle pattern, the risk of buying after a Support rebound is low.
At the same time, the 4H RSI also rebounded exactly on its 30.00 oversold barrier. Similar rebounds have delivered at least a +1.37% rise, so at this stage our Target is 0.62700.
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