Best trade of the week? USDCAD or Oil? Will bearish bets on the Canadian dollar grow in the lead up to Wednesday? It is widely expected that the Canadian central bank will leave interest rates on hold during its meeting that concludes on this day (Although, it may be a hawkish hold as the Governor Tiff Macklem will mention that another hike is still on the table for the bank).
Perhaps piling on the bearish sentiment is the slight fall in the price of oil (one of Canada's major exports), as US diplomatic efforts continue to contain the conflict between Israel and Hamas. How long this quietish period can last is up for debate though, and a ground offensive by the IDF in Gaza could send oil prices higher.
Bullish takes on the USD/CAD (i.e., bearish bets on the Loonie) will have 1.37350 to content with, which is the high the pair reached before cratering to 1.36712 to start the week. 1.36936 is the more immediate resistance for bull to cross before even thinking about the day's high. The RSI’s weakness suggests this won’t be too difficult though, and 1.37189 might be the more formidable resistance.
Canadiandollar
EURCAD: One More Breakout Trade 🇪🇺🇨🇦
I spotted one more confirmed breakout.
EURCAD violated a key daily resistance.
On a retest of a broken structure, the price formed an ascending triangle formation
with a confirmed neckline violation.
I expect a further bullish continuation on the pair at least to 1.458
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EURCAD 1day MA50 break out. Buy.The EURCAD pair crossed over the 1day MA50 yesterday for the first time in 6 weeks and today is closing over it.
This is a bullish extension signal towards at least the Falling Resistance.
Every bullish sequence in 2023 following a 1day MA50 break out has made at least a +4.21% rise.
Buy now and target 1.46800 (Falling Resistance).
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CADCHF: Pullback From Key Level 🇨🇦🇨🇭
CADCHF is taking off from a solid horizontal daily support.
The price formed a double bottom formation on that on an hourly time frame.
Feels like the market is oversold and it is the moment for correction.
Bullish continuation is expected to 0.6535 / 0.6550
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CADJPY: Intraday Bullish Reversal 🇨🇦🇯🇵
After a strong bearish movement, CADJPY leaves multiple strong bullish clues.
First, the price formed a falling wedge pattern and violated its upper boundary.
A double bottom pattern was formed then.
Its neckline was also broken.
These 2 patterns confirm the intraday change of character on the pair.
Goals: 109.6 / 109.9
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USDCAD Bullish targeting a Higher High.The USDCAD pair is trading within a Channel Up supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The current bullish leg started after a 1D Golden Cross and is half-way towards pricing a new Higher High. We are already bullish on this pair but the recent rebound indicates that another buy can be added now. Our target is 1.39800 (Resistance 2), which makes a Higher High of nearly +4.58% similar to the previous one.
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AUDCAD: Time to Short 🇦🇺🇨🇦
Here is a classic example of a top-down confirmation setup:
after a breakout of a key support on a daily, AUDCAD retested that.
The price was steadily growing within a bearish flag formation.
The text of structure triggered a strong bearish reaction
and the price violated a support of the flag.
It confirms the strength of the sellers and a highly probable bearish continuation.
Goals: 0.859 / 0.8576
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✅AUD_CAD LOCAL SHORT🔥
✅AUD_CAD is trading in a
Downtrend and the pair
Was making a local bullish
Correction but then hit a
Horizontal resistance level
Of 0.8634 from where we
Are already seeing a
Bearish reaction so I will
Be expecting a move down
SHORT🔥
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GBPCAD - Bearish Double TOP 📉
Hello Traders !
On Friday 22 Sep, The GBPCAD Broke a Strong Support Level (1.65373-1.67148)
This Key Level Becomes a New Resistance Level.
The Price Created a New Correction in The Previous Week!
Currently, The Price Formed a Double TOP Pattern.
The Neckline is Broken.
So, I Expect a Bearish Move !
i'm waiting for retest...
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TARGET: 1.63830🎯
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CADCHF - Bearish Move 📉
Hi Traders!
On The Daily Time Frame, The CADCHF Price Reached A Strong Resistance Level (0.68135 - 0.68320).
Currently, The Price Failed To Create a New Higher High.
The Last Higher High is Broken (Break of Structure).
The Support Line is Broken.
So, I Expect a Bearish Move📉.
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TARGET: 0.66300🎯
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CADCHF - Break of Structure 📉Hello Traders!
On The Daily Time Frame, The CADCHF Price Reached A Strong Resistance Level (0.68135 - 0.68320).
Currently, The Price Failed To Create a New Higher High.
The Last Higher High is Broken (Break of Structure).
The Support Line is Broken.
So, I Expect a Bearish Move📉.
i'm waiting for retest...
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TARGET: 0.66300🎯
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NZDCAD This rise is a great opportunity to sellThe NZDCAD pair provided us with one of the best short opportunities (see chart below) earlier this year in January, which was confirmed when the 1D MA100 broke:
As you can see, this created a Channel Down pattern and the recent rise that broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is the bullish leg towards the new Lower High. Technically it shouldn't exceed the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but there is some probability that since we have Diverging Lower Lows (dashed) we may see a Diverging Lower Highs trend-line emerge. In any case, with the 1D RSI the closest to the 70.00 overbought barrier since July 14 and the last Lower High, the Risk/ Reward favors shorting, with our targeting being at 0.78515 (-5.20% decline as the last two, contacting the Diverging Lower Lows trend-line).
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CADCHF Pure Resistance - Support trade.The CADCHF pair is trading within a 5-month Rectangle pattern. Following the rejection on the 0.68310 Resistance and establishing the price action below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), it should begin the final bearish phase towards the 0.64600 Support. The 1D MA50 is in between but after the 1D MACD formed a Bearish Cross, it shouldn't hold. Our target is 0.64800.
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GBPCAD Waiting for a bullish extension confirmation.The GBPCAD pair has been trading within a Bullish Megaphone for the whole year and is about to test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The recent rebound is taking place on strong technicals as it not only started on the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) but also after a 1D MACD Bullish Cross from oversold levels that we haven't seen since July 2019.
If the 1D MA200 breaks and closes a 1D candle above it, the bullish extension will be confirmed and we will buy, targeting the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.71110.
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USDCAD: One More Breakout 🇺🇸🇨🇦
As I predicted, USDCAD bounced nicely.
After a test of a significant daily resistance, the market violated that and closed above,
setting a new higher high higher close.
It feels like the market may go even higher now.
Next resistance - 1.376
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A little early but looks fineThe charts says it all, potential inverse HS. I'm already long but if I see that the pattern is playing out I will add. It could take a few more weeks or not, with this crazy market anything could happen. This pair is difficult, I has tried to break out before and it failed (yellow markups) so take profits on the way up.