CAD/CHF strong upside to come to 0.7303 - But we need to waitInv Head and Shoulders seems to be forming on the CAD/CHF Minor Currency Pair.
There is a fight between Canada and Swiss Franc and it looks like Canada is preparing the troops for upside in the chart.
We need to wait for the higher low to form (right shoulder).
Then for the price to break above the neckline and it will be breaking above the medium term downtrend.
7>21
Price<200
RSI>50
Target 0.7303
INTERESTING FACT!
Did you know how the CAD Canadian Dollar got it's nickname - Loonie from/
No not that! lol But I know you're thinking it.
The name "loonie" originates from the bird depicted on the one-dollar coin.
The common loon, a bird that is widespread in Canada, was selected as the emblem for the coin, leading to the currency's popular nickname.
The loonie was introduced in 1987 (my brith year) as a cost-saving measure to replace the one-dollar banknote.
Canadiandollar
USD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS2023-2024 Exchange Rate Forecasts From MUFG
Growth Concerns hamper Commodity Currencies
MUFG notes important uncertainty over the outlook for Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy.
On balance it expects that the RBA will not hike rates again.
As far as the currency is concerned, it adds; “We continue to see AUD/USD moving higher but assume underperformance relative to core G10 as growth globally and in Australia remains challenging.”
MUFG notes that the government and Reserve Bank of New Zealand have revised their GDP forecasts and no longer expect a recession, but is doubtful whether the upgrade is justified.
It adds; “These conditions imply the government and the RBNZ’s GDP forecasts could be unrealistic. NZD/USD gains as the dollar weakens could be curtailed as aggressive monetary tightening hits growth.”
MUFG expects that weaker risk conditions will hamper the Canadian dollar with forecasts of USD/CAD declines based on US weakness rather than Canadian currency gains.
USDCAD heading down again! Pair Name: USD/CAD
Time Frame: 4hrs chart
Direction: short
Comment:
Exciting news for all those following the USDCAD currency pair! 🌍✨ After a period of temporary stabilization, it seems that the downward trend of USDCAD has recently resumed. In the last few minutes, the pair has shown a renewed decline, and based on my analysis, I anticipate a further descent towards the level of 1.3333. 📉💱
As always, I encourage all members of our social network to engage in lively discussions and share their insights regarding USDCAD or any other market trends. The collective knowledge and diverse perspectives within our community can greatly enhance our understanding and potential profitability. Let's support each other as we navigate the exciting world of investments! 💪🤝
Remember, this contribution serves as an informative analysis and should not be construed as financial advice. Stay informed, stay connected, and happy investing! 🌟📈
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CADJPY: Ideal sell entry now.CADJPY hit today the top of the HH trendline that started the Channel Up at the start of the year. 1D is naturally on firm green level technically (RSI = 64.634, MACD = 1.030, ADX = 45.677) but the RSI has been trading on a flat Rectangle since May 18th. It is the same pattern that led to the February 18th High. Our trigger level to sell is the crossing under the dotted Channel Up. Our target will be the 1W MA100 and bottom of the Channel Up (TP = 98.500).
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USD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISThe Canadian dollar (CAD) is poised for potential gains, especially if the Bank of Canada's impending policy rate decisions, likely influenced by robust economic indicators, result in a surprise rate hike and policy reconvergence.
Bank of Canada's Policy Rate Steady But Rate Hike on Horizon
According to Brian Daingerfield however, Head of G10 FX Strategy at Natwest, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is likely to hold its policy rate steady at 4.50% at their next meeting on June 7th.
"We expect no change in the Bank of Canada (BoC) policy rate at the June 7th meeting. Since pausing at the January meeting, the economic outlook has remained resilient and services CPI has shown signs of reaccelerating," he states. Daingerfield adds that there is a strong case for a rate hike at one of the BoC's next two meetings, most likely in July.
According to their research, the recent economic data indicates the need for additional monetary tightening.
"In our view, the data are now showing evidence that additional tightening is needed. On the labour side, April’s job data showed a market still in excess demand with an unemployment rate of 5.0% (unchanged since December) and hourly wage growth of 5.2% y/y," he says.
Additionally, the analyst points out that first quarter GDP came in quite strong, exceeding both market expectations and BoC's projection.
Canadian CPI data for April revealed higher-than-expected figures, contributing to the case for tightening.
Daingerfield elaborates, "On inflation, Canada CPI came in stronger-than-expected on both the monthly and annual headline figures for April. While the bank’s key measures of core inflation have been relatively stable on short-term aggregates, the services category has sharply accelerated on a 3-month annualized basis."
However, the analyst notes that BoC Governor Macklem seemed to take a more relaxed view of the data, hinting that the Bank may not be ready to abandon its rate pause just yet.
Implications for the Canadian Dollar
The recent strength of the USD has had a significant impact on the Canadian dollar (CAD), which Daingerfield views as a high-beta USD currency, closely tracking US data and the Fed.
"In recent weeks and months, the USD tide has continued to act as a driving force for the Canadian dollar, and as the USD has found its footing the CAD has rallied on crosses in lockstep with the USD," he observes.
However, the analsyt suggests that strong domestic data, particularly April's CPI and first-quarter GDP, introduce risks to this trend.
Return to Tightening Cycle Likely to Boost CAD
Daingerfield believes that a return to the tightening cycle by the BoC could be beneficial for the CAD, especially given its lagging position relative to its G10 peers.
"A rate hike would return the BoC to the tightening pack given that it was the first major central bank to announce a pause to its rate hiking cycle on January 25th," he says.
Daingerfield also speculates that a hawkish statement in June or a surprise rate hike could act as tailwinds supporting the CAD's performance against the USD and other currencies.
AUDCAD: Buy short term and sell at the top of the Channel.AUDCAD is on a strong bullish reversal as the price made a new LL at the bottom of the Channel Down. The 1D time frame is still technically bearish (RSI = 41.867, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 60.849) and it won't start providing sell signals before it turns neutral at least. We will buy on the current market price and target the 1D MA50 (TP1 = 0.897500). On the 1D MA50 we will reverse to selling again, initially targeting S1 (TP2 = 0.878500) and if it gives a candle close under it, then we will extend selling to S2 (TP3 = 0..866300).
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EURCAD: Time to Fall 🇪🇺🇨🇦
Earlier this week, we discussed a horizontal range on EURCAD on a daily.
It turned out, that the price managed to break and close below its lower boundary.
It will most likely push the price lower.
Next goal for sellers - 1.44
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EURCAD Some downside left before the long term buy entryEURCAD is on the bearish leg of the Ascending Triangle pattern that targets the S2 Zone (1.42400 - 1.42800). Obviously the 1D technicals are bearish (RSI = 36.214, MACD = -0.006, ADX = 52.689) and our bearish target is the top of S1 at 1.43850. Regardless of S1 or S2, we have timed our long term buy entry when the 1D RSI turns oversold at 30.000. As you see the RSI has been inside a Channel Down ever since the Ascending Triangle started. Our short term targets once the buy gets activated will be the R1 and R2 (TP = 1.46480 and 1.47485 respectively).
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CADCHF goes up after the downtrend line breaks🚀CADCHF managed to break the downtrend line.
Also, Regular Divergence(RD+) can be seen between two successive valleys.
I expect CADCHF to grow to at least the 🔴resistance zone( 0.6808 CHF-0.67720 CHF)🔴 after the pullback to the downtrend line.
🔅Canadian Dollar/Swiss Franc Analyze (CADCHF), 8-hour time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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EURCAD: Important Decision Ahead 🇪🇺🇨🇦
EURCAD remains very weak for more than 2 weeks:
the pair is trading in a narrow horizontal range on a daily.
Depending on the reaction of the price to the boundaries of the range,
I see 2 potential scenarios.
Bullish:
If the price breaks and closes above the upper boundary of the range - 1.4653 level,
I will expect a bullish movement to 1.4725.
Bearish
If the price violates the support of the range - 1.4486 and closes below that,
a bearish continuation will be anticipated to 1.441.
Wait for a breakout, that will show us the future direction of the market.
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USDCAD growth with the help of uptrend line🚀USDCAD was able to break the 🔴resistance zone🔴 and is currently completing a pullback to the broken 🔴resistance zone🔴.
I expect USDCAD to continue its upward trend with the help of the uptrend line; the upward trend of USDCAD can continue at least up to the resistance line and 🔴heavy resistance zone🔴.
🔅U.S.Dollar/Canadian Dollar (USDCAD), 4-hour time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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USDCAD: Your Trading Plan Explained 🇺🇸🇨🇦
USDCAD is consolidating on a key level.
The price formed a horizontal trading range on 4H time frame.
Taking into consideration that the current trend is bullish, I would look for buying the pair.
Your confirmation can be a bullish breakout of the upper boundary of the range.
4H candle close above 1.3613 will confirm the violation,
a bullish continuation will be expected to 1.365 level then.
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NZDCAD: Bearish Trend Will Continue 🇳🇿🇨🇦
NZDCAD set a new lower low lower close on a daily, violating a key horizontal support.
The broken structure turned into a strong resistance.
I recommend looking for shorting opportunities from that.
Goals will be 0.82 / 0.816
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EUR-CAD Bearish Bias! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-CAD is already making
A bearish pullback from the
Horizontal resistance of 1.464
And as we are bearish biased
Due to a downtrend of the pair
I think that we will see
A further move down
Sell!
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EURCAD: My Plan to Sell 🇪🇺🇨🇦
EURCAD is trading on a key horizontal resistance.
To short the pair with a confirmation, watch a descending triangle formation on 1H time frame.
If the price breaks its neckline, that will give us a trigger to short.
To confirm the violation, we will need an hourly candle close below 1.4607.
A bearish continuation will be expected to 1.4579 / 1.4555
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