AUDCAD: 1D MA50 just confirmed a sell signal.AUDCAD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.833, MACD = 0.001, ADX = 20.919) as the price hit and remains on the 1D MA50. The long term pattern is a Channel Up that 3 weeks ago made the latest HH. The crossing under the 1D MA50 has confirmed the new bearish wave as the July 23rd January 5th 2024 crossings did. The 1D RSI is also on an identical correction. All pullback waves hit atleast the 0.618 Fibonacci level, which yet again is what you should be targeting (TP = 0.905500).
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Canadiandollar
USDCAD Sell signal may be triggered soon.USDCAD is on a continuous rise since the September 24 low inside a Channel Up.
The pattern however broke this week sideways and is already showing the first signs of exhaustion as the RSI (4h) is printing a topping pattern similar to August 5th.
Still though, the MA50 (4h) is supporting.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell if the price crosses below the MA50 (4h).
Targets:
1. 1.36500 (potential contact with the MA200 (4h)).
Tips:
1. The August fractal started to decline just after the RSI formed this pattern. I may have found the first support base on the 0.618 Fibonacci level but that happened to be on the MA200 (4h) as well and that is why we pursue this as target.
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USDCAD: Rejection expected on the 2 year Resistance Zone.USDCAD is bullish on the 1W timeframe (RSI = 60.180, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 23.071) and turned overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 69.243). This is taking place while the price is just underneath the 2 year R1 Zone, which has rejected the price 5 times already. The 1D RSI is also about to enter its R1 Zone. We expect another rejection towards the S1 level (TP = 1.34500).
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GBPCAD Sell signal at the top of the Channel Up.The GBPCAD pair has been trading within a Channel Up for more than 1 year (since September 28 2023) and since September 30 2024 has been on Lower Highs. The last time we saw such a trend-line as on the April 16 2024 Lower High, after which a strong short-term rejection took place.
We expect a similar selling sequence to take place that should be contained however above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Our Target is 1.77000 (Support 1).
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NZD/CAD Tests Key Demand Area with Bullish Signs EmergingIn the last three days, the NZD/CAD pair has retested a crucial demand area, showing a clear rejection, which indicates potential buying interest at this level. Supporting this outlook, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that retail traders continue to hold predominantly short positions, while "Smart Money"—institutional investors—are steadily increasing their exposure to the pair. Additionally, though less significant, the price has reacted to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the swing low, adding another technical layer to the current scenario.
Large speculators have already shifted to a bullish stance, signaling growing confidence in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) relative to the Canadian Dollar (CAD). This shift in market sentiment could pave the way for a potential long setup, especially as seasonal trends indicate further upside potential for the NZD/CAD pair.
From a technical perspective, the combination of the demand zone rejection and the bullish movement in institutional positioning suggests the possibility of an upward move. Traders will be closely observing the price action over the coming days for signs of a breakout, which could provide an opportunity to enter long positions in line with the growing bullish sentiment surrounding NZD/CAD.
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USD/CAD: What to Expect from BoC Next Week? USD/CAD: What to Expect from BoC Next Week?
Canada’s central bank is set to announce its next rate decision on Oct. 23, with Canadian banks largely anticipating a 50-basis-point cut. A similar reduction is also expected at the BoC's final meeting of the year on Dec. 11.
For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
The prospect of back-to-back cuts is weighing heavily on the Canadian dollar, which touched to a two-month low of 1.383 against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday. Technical indicators, including moving averages, suggest a potential short-term bullish trend for the pair.
Meanwhile, in the U.S., Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari indicated this week that any future rate cuts from the Federal Reserve could be "modest." Which the market might be interpreting as a bias for a smaller 25-basis point cut.
EURCAD: Near the bottom of its Channel Down. Bullish.EURCAD is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.446, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 21.257) as it is trading on the 3rd straight red 1D candle and is approaching the bottom of the 10 week Channel Down. The are more probabilities now to see a bullish reversal aimed at the top, so we turn bullish (TP = 1.51.300).
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USDCAD Approaching our sell entry.The USDCAD pair has been rising since the September 25 Low, all inside a 2-year Rectangle pattern of a wide range. The 1D RSI is about to enter the 70.00 overbought zone and every time it has done so within this pattern, a little later it got rejected to at least the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As a result, we will wait until 1.38500 and sell, targeting 1.36000 (which would be a -1.86% decline from the top, the minimum from the group of similar declines) or take the profit if the price hits the 1D MA50 before 1.36000.
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USDCAD Extends Rally as Strong US Labor Data Lifts the GreenbackThe USD/CAD pair continues its upward momentum, extending its rally to around 1.3645 during Tuesday's early London session. The recent surge in the US Dollar (USD) has been driven by stronger-than-expected labor market data released last Friday, which caused traders to reassess their expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts.
The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed a robust increase in employment figures, along with a decline in the Unemployment Rate, which has reduced the likelihood of more substantial rate cuts by the Fed. Investors now anticipate a more modest 25 basis points (bps) cut in the upcoming November meeting, rather than the previously expected 50 bps. This sentiment shift has provided a solid foundation for the USD to gain traction against its counterparts, including the Canadian Dollar (CAD).
In our previous USD/CAD forecast, shared here:
USD/CAD Rebounds from Demand Zone
Bullish Continuation in Sight, we highlighted a key demand zone where the pair found strong support. As anticipated, the price rebounded exactly from our identified area, and we are now approaching our take profit target.
Looking Ahead: Impact of Upcoming US Economic Data
Tomorrow and the day after, significant US economic data releases are scheduled, including reports on inflation and unemployment claims, which could further impact the direction of the USD. A continuation of strong economic performance may push the USD/CAD pair higher, while any signs of economic weakness could lead to a brief retracement.
Conclusion: Holding the Position for Further Gains
Given the favorable technical setup and the strong support from recent labor data, we are holding our long position in USD/CAD. The upcoming economic releases will provide additional clarity, but for now, the momentum remains on the side of the US Dollar. A potential continuation of the bullish trend is in sight, with some volatility expected as traders react to fresh economic news.
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USDCAD: Sell signalUSDCAD is almost neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.464, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 19.851) as it rebounded on August's low. This is a similar price action to the April-May 2023 sequence and as long as the 1D MA50 contains the price under it, we will be bearish. Our Target is just over the S1 Zone (TP = 1.32500).
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USDCAD Prepare for red October - November.The USDCAD pair hit both of our Targets on the July 25 (see chart below) sell signal:
The initial rebound stopped on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) where the price was rejected with the 1D RSI forming a pattern similar to May 2023. As a result, it is possible to see another short-term rebound but on the medium-term, we expect October and November to be another sell sequence.
The March - July 2023 fractal had two similar Bearish Legs of -4.10% each. So since the current first Leg was -3.64%, we expect the one that will follow now to be of around the same strength.
As a result we can target 1.32000 on low risk, just above the Support 1 level.
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CADJPY Strong buy at the bottom of the 2-year Channel UpLast time we gave a signal on the CADJPY pair (July 09, see chart below), we got the sell we wanted, as a brutal collapse started straight after:
This time we get a strong buy signal as the price is rebounding after a Double Bottom on the Higher Lows trend-line of the 2-year Channel Up. This is similar to the January - March Double Bottom, which until now, has been the strongest long-term buy signal on the pair.
Once the price breaks above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we will have the buy confirmation we need to target the 0.9 Fibonacci level (like June 23 2023) at 117.100.
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AUDCAD Excellent buy signal on the 1D MA200The AUDCAD pair gave us an excellent sell signal last time (July 08 2024, see chart below) and easily hit the 0.9000 Target:
This time, we have an established Channel Up with two Higher Highs and three Higher Lows priced in already. We are currently on the new Bullish Leg following the rebound on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
As long as this holds, we will treat every touch on the 0.786 as a buy opportunity, similar to the Triple Bottom of March - April. That Bullish Leg marginally surpassed the -0.5 Fibonacci extension to print its Higher High, so our Target will be just below it at 0.94000.
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EURCAD Sell continuation signalThe EURCAD pair is trading on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) within the 10-month Channel Up. The previous time we had a peak rejection like this, the pair declined by at least -3.88%. The similarities even between the 1D RSI fractals are obvious. Our Target is 1.46550.
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High Timeframe Analysis for Canadian DollarDISCLAIMER: This is not trading advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. There are significant risks involved with trading. Do your due diligence.
MULTI-TIMEFRAME STRATEGY.
This approach is great for traders that don't have a lot of time to spend at the charts. This strategy can easily be managed with a few minutes a night. If you have kids, or are busy with another profession, this strategy is excellent.
HTF: 12 Month
ITF: 2 Week
ETF: 12 Hour
CANADIAN DOLLAR ANALYSIS:
I am looking for the Canadian Dollar to trade up to 2023 highs. My bias is due to the "swing low" we put in over the last few years, suggesting that overall there is some bullish momentum.
The intermediate timeframe is in flow with my htf objective. I want to see CAD trade down into the 2W fair value gap &/or 2 week orderblock, and then give an entry (cisd, 18 period ma entry, 10-8 mac entry). The target is 2023 highs. These trades can last a fairly long time due to the high timeframe objective. I will either roll over into next contract, or utilize spot forex market for these positions. To be clear, this does not mean I blindly long. What this means is this market has a setup, which means we wait for the trigger/timing tool to get me in. Until then, I do nothing.
If you want to learn more about the PD (Premium/Discount) arrays, I suggest you study ICT (Inner Circle Trader). My application of his work is unique, but to learn the fundamentals, there is no better place than his YouTube.
If you have questions, feel free to shoot me a message.
Have a great week.
Smart Money Positioned to SHORT CAD - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Canadian Dollar (6C)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6C if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
OI Analysis: Upmove in price has seen Commercials aggressively move to the short side - bearish.
Valuation: Overvalued vs Treasuries
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency to go down to October.
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: %R
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
USDCAD - Losing Steam - Shorting the Mid RetestI’ve been tracking this one for a while, and I believe it’s time to short this area after the significant bearish signal right at the top, which resulted in a failed breakout.
After several months of accumulation and various breakout attempts that ultimately fell back into the range, it has now dropped below the mid-level. For me, this is a clear short signal.
If it reclaims the mid-level solidly before my invalidation point, I’ll consider closing my position manually. For now, I’m targeting the range low.
AUDCAD: Time to Drop Lower 🇦🇺🇨🇦
AUDCAD was consolidating within a horizontal range for 2 weeks.
The release of high impact fundamental news earlier this week
made the pair bearish.
The price managed to break and close below a support of the range on a daily.
We can expect a bearish movement now.
Next support - 90.5
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Volatile Week for USD/CAD? Volatile Week for USD/CAD?
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is anticipated to lower rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, bringing the policy rate down to 4.25%. This expectation follows a recent CPI report that indicated further easing in core inflation, coupled with weaker labor market data.
While a 50-basis point cut seems unlikely, it can't be entirely dismissed. In the July monetary policy meeting, Governor Tiff Macklem suggested that the focus may shift towards supporting economic growth rather than solely controlling inflation.
Additionally, Canada's August employment report is set to be released on Friday, coinciding with the US nonfarm payrolls report. This timing could heighten uncertainty and volatility in the USD/CAD pair.
A key level to watch will be the 1.3570-1.3600 zone, which previously served as a significant support area. Whether this area will be re-tested remains to be seen.
USDCAD Buy opportunity on extremely oversold RSIThe USDCAD pair hit both of our targets on the sell signal we gave a month ago (July 25, see chart below) as it is currently on a 4-week red candle streak:
We now start switching to a bullish medium-term strategy as we get clear signals of a pending trend reversal. The price isn't only on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from Support 2 but the 1D RSI also hit the oversold bottom level of the December 26 2023 Low.
As you can see on this chart, every time the 1D RSI broke below the 30.00 oversold barrier in the past 12 months and reversed even a little, the USDCAD pair bottomed on the medium-term and targeted Resistance 1. Even the smaller April 14 2023 reversal (which wasn't from an oversold RSI) targeted the 0.618 retracement level.
As a result, we apply a two tier buy entry, one now and the 2nd at the less likely event the price approaches Support 1 (-5.40% decline, the most it had on a 2-year basis). In both cases, our Target is 1.37500 (0.618 Fib).
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