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Canadiandollar

CADJPY Sell-opportunity on a long-term rising trend.The CADJPY pair has been on a (very) long-term rising trend as depicted by the Fibonacci Channel on this chart, since the March 2020 market low. At the moment we see a short-term pull-back after the price made a new Higher High since the April 21 one. Based both on the RSI and MACD indicators, it appears that we are in a similar pull-back leg as the one that started on October 21 2021. As you see the MACD was on a Bearish Cross with the RSI dropping after previously breaking a Lower Highs trend-line. That sequence found bottom on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. On the current pattern that level is at 104.810 and that is our target on the short-term. This is invalidated if we break above the 110.630 Resistance, in which case we will take it as a buy break-out signal, targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension of the Channel. Further selling can be made if the price breaks below the 1.0 Channel Fib, in which case we would expect it to reach the 1D MA200/ 1W MA50 (orange and red trend-lines respectively) Support Zone. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot
2
AUDCAD Still bearish unless this level breaksThe AUDCAD pair is following our trading plan to the point since our last analysis (August 12), which was a sell signal following the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) rejection: As you see nothing has changed, the price got emphatically rejected on the 1D MA200 and entered a Channel Down that has already hit our first target (0.89120). There is no diversion yet and as long as the Channel holds (especially the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line)), it could target on the medium-term the 1 year Lower Lows trend-line. This pattern is invalidated only if the 1W RSI Symmetrical Resistance Zone breaks, or the price breaks above the 1D MA200, in which case we will take it as a buy signal, targeting the 1W MA300, which had the April 05 rejection. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot
EURCAD Hit the 1D MA100 for the 1st time since February!The EURCAD pair hit on Friday the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since February 24. It just so happens that this contact is taking place at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the long-term Channel Down pattern that the pair has been trading in since mid August 2021. This level gives very favorable trading opportunities in terms of Risk/ Reward Ratio. Technically being at the top of the Channel, there are higher probabilities for a rejection but it is not absolute as a break above it as well as the 1D MA100 took place on February 03, which only stopped on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) two days later, after making a Double Top rejection on the Channel's previous Lower High. As a result, the risk is very low in selling now and having an SL at the top of the Channel, while targeting the previous Low at 1.28740. If the Channel breaks to the upside, we can take a short-term break-out buy, targeting the 1D MA200. A break and closing above the Resistance (previous Lower High) should be interpreted as a bullish shift of the trend on the long-term. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
1
GBP CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE The negative outlook for the UK economy has been a key source of Pound weakness. Stagflation risks remain high with CPI > 10% and recession expected in 4Q22 (lasting 5 quarters). It has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE rate hikes. However, the new PM announced a much bigger than expected fiscal plan which will keep energy prices capped for 2 years for households and will also offer support for businesses. According to some estimates, that should keep inflation capped (as the main driver has been energy), and also means that the recession could be less severe than previously thought. Thus, even though the bias for the GBP remains bearish as a recession still seems likely, the fiscal news is a positive development for Sterling on balance, and with a lot of bad news already priced in we are expecting some reprieve for Sterling with asymmetric risk to incoming data (good news expected to have a bigger upside impact compared to the impact from bad news). That also means this week’s upcoming BoE meeting will be very interesting. After the dismal economic outlook delivered in the Aug MPR and the recent policy hearings, there could be some upside risk for GBP if the bank’s verdict of the new PM’s fiscal plan means lower price pressures and a less severe recession outlook. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any incoming data that surprises meaningfully higher could trigger relief for the GBP. With focus on stagflation, any downside surprises in CPI or factors that decrease inflation pressures are expected to support the GBP and not pressure it. The fiscal announcements last week were a welcome change, and any further support measures announced by the new PM should continue to ease stagflation fears. Given STIR pricing, a 50bsp could trigger initial GBP downside, but we could see upside if the bank sounds slightly more optimistic about the economy with the proposed fiscal plan. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any material downside surprises in growth data can still trigger short-term pressure. With focus on stagflation, any upside surprises in CPI or factors that increase more inflation pressures are expected to weigh on the GBP and not support it. The fiscal announcements last week were a welcome change, and any potential walk back from the new PM on the plans laid out last week would increase stagflation fears once again. Given STIR pricing, a 50bsp could trigger initial downside, but we could see further downside if the bank explains the medterm debt risk of the new fiscal plan outweighs the benefits. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamentals for Sterling remain bearish , especially after the BoE’s recent forecasts of a 5-quarter recession in the UK. Furthermore, given the risks to growth, there is growing speculation that the BoE might not be too far away from pausing their current hiking cycle. Anything that exacerbates stagflation fears is expected to weigh on the Pound and anything that alleviates some pressure could see some reprieve. Since Sterling is trading at fresh new cycle lows, the risk to reward for chasing it lower looks unattractive, and we could see asymmetric reactions skewed to the upside on positive data & news. Furthermore, we think the new PM’s proposed fiscal plan has not received the bullish attention it deserves. What the BoE have to say about the proposed fiscal spending and how it’s likely to impact growth and inflation will be important this week. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The CAD has enjoyed far more upside in the past few weeks than we anticipated. We’ve been cautious on the currency given Canada’s dependency on the US (>70% of exports) where the clear signs of a faster than expected slowdown and possible recession should deteriorate the growth outlook for Canada. Apart from that, the risks to the Canadian housing market can negatively impact consumer spending as interest rates rise higher at aggressive speed. Potentially damaging the wealth effect created by the rapid rise in house prices since covid. Despite markets still pricing in a favourable growth outlook for Canada, the recent jobs report saw the third consecutive contraction in employment, which is something the bank should start to take notice of. The market’s reaction after the 75bsp was fairly muted as the bank didn’t provide any important additional info in their statement that markets didn’t already know. With their frontloading, the bank is now just one 50bsp or two 25bsp hikes away from hitting terminal rate expectations, which means any upside from policy differentials should begin to fade. Either way, we remain cautious on the CAD and favour short-term catalysts that provide us with shorting opportunities. After the recent jobs report miss, a much bigger than expected miss in CPI could offer some great shorting opportunities. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Catalysts that see further upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. The correlation has been hit and miss in recent weeks though. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. After the bank’s frontloading, there is a very high bar to surprise on the hawkish side for the BoC, but if the bank were to say they think STIR market pricing for the terminal rate is too low that can provide upside for the CAD. An upside surprise in CPI is unlikely to change the bigger picture but could ease some of the post-job report downside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. With the bank just 50bsp away from terminal rate expectations, it won’t take much to surprise on the dovish side, and any signals or comments from the BoC that they’ll pause hikes should be a negative for the CAD. A big enough CPI miss could see markets pricing in a sooner pause from the BoC, especially after the recent jobs report. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook due to the slowdown in the US, as well as rising risks to the consumer and the housing market, and potential negative impact for commodities like oil, we remain cautious on the currency (even though it’s moved much higher than we anticipated from the start of the year). With a lot of good news priced in, and the BoC close to terminal, and the recent miss in the jobs data, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts. Incoming CPI data could give the markets an excuse to start contemplating a sooner pause by the bank since they are very close to terminal rate expectations.
by thunderpips
3
NZDCAD: Your Trading Plan For Today 🇳🇿🇨🇦 Hey traders, NZDCAD broke and closed below a solid structure support yesterday. Retesting the broken structure, the price formed a head and shoulders pattern on 1H time frame. To short with a confirmation, watch 0.7893 - 0.7898 horizontal neckline. We need an hourly candle close below that to confirm the breakout. Then, short aggressively or on a retest. Goals will be 0.788 / 0.7865 If the price sets a new high though, the setup will be invalid. Please, support this post with like and comment!
Short
by VasilyTrader
3
💵Canadian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar💵Analyze !!!Canadian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar is running near the important resistance line and resistance zone. I expect the Canadian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar will go down at least to the support line. Also, we can see the Regular Divergence (RD-) between MACD Indicator and Price. 🔅Canadian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar Analyze (CADNZD) Daily Timeframe⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
5
💵U.S.Dollar/Canadian Dollar 💵Analyze !!!U.S.Dollar/ Canadian Dollar was able to make an Expanding Ending Diagonal. I expect that U.S.Dollar/ Canadian Dollar will reverse from the Resistance zone and then touch my 🎯targets🎯. 🔅U.S.Dollar/ Canadian Dollar Analyze (USDCAD) Timeframe 2H⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends, Thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
10
GBP CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE The negative outlook for the UK economy has been a key source of the Pound’s downside. Stagflation risks are high with CPI > 10% and recession expected in 4Q22 (lasting 5 quarters). It has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE rate hikes. With the energy cap expected to rise again in October 2022 and April 2023, the new PM hit the ground running by announcing a much bigger than expected fiscal plan which will keep energy prices capped for 2 years for households and will also offer support for businesses. According to preliminary research, this means inflation most likely already peaked in the UK (as the main driver has been energy), and also means that the expected hit to the economy should be less severe than previously thought. Thus, even though the bias for the GBP remains bearish as a recession still seems likely, the fiscal news is a positive development for Sterling on balance, and with a lot of bad news already priced in we are expecting some reprieve for Sterling with asymmetric risk to incoming data (good news expected to have a bigger upside impact compared to the impact from bad news). POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any incoming data that surprises meaningfully higher could trigger relief for the GBP. With focus on stagflation, any downside surprises in CPI or factors that decrease inflation pressures are expected to support the GBP and not pressure it. The fiscal announcements last week were a welcome change, and any further support measures announced by the new PM should continue to ease stagflation fears. With UK threats of triggering Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do Brexit is in focus. For now, markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any major de-escalation can see some upside for Sterling. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any material downside surprises in growth data can still trigger short-term pressure. With focus on stagflation, any upside surprises in CPI or factors that increase more inflation pressures are expected to weigh on the GBP and not support it. The fiscal announcements last week were a welcome change, and any potential walk back from the new PM on the planslaid out last week would increase stagflation fears once again. With UK threats of triggering Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do Brexit is in focus. For now, markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any actual escalation can see sharp GBP downside. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamentals for Sterling remain bearish , especially after the BoE’s recent forecasts of a 5-quarter recession in the UK. Furthermore, given the risks to growth, there is growing speculation that the BoE might not be too far away from pausing their current hiking cycle. Anything that exacerbates stagflation fears is expected to weigh on the Pound and anything that alleviates some pressure could see some reprieve. Since Sterling is trading at fresh new cycle lows, the risk to reward for chasing it lower looks unattractive, and we could see asymmetric reactions skewed to the upside on positive data & news. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The CAD has enjoyed far more upside in the past few weeks than we anticipated. We’ve been cautious on the currency given Canada’s dependency on the US (>70% of exports) where the clear signs of a faster than expected slowdown and possible recession should deteriorate the growth outlook for Canada. Apart from that, the risks to the Canadian housing market can negatively impact consumer spending as interest rates rise higher at aggressive speed. Potentially damaging the wealth effect created by the rapid rise in house prices since covid. However, despite the risks to the economy and the outlook, markets still price in a strangely favourable growth environment for Canada, also supported by a big push higher in terms of trade due to the rise in commodity prices. The market’s reaction after the 75bsp was fairly muted as the bank didn’t provide any important additional info in their statement that markets didn’t already know. With their frontloading, the bank is now just one 50bsp or two 25bsp hikes away from hitting terminal rate expectations, which means any upside from policy differentials should being to fade. Either way, we remain cautious on the CAD and favour short-term catalysts that provide us with shorting opportunities. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Catalysts that see further upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. The correlation has been hit and miss in recent weeks though. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. After the bank’s frontloading, there is a very high bar to surprise on the hawkish side for the BoC, but if the bank were to say they think STIR market pricing for the terminal rate is too low that can provide upside for the CAD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. With the bank just 50bsp away from terminal rate expectations, it won’t take much to surprise on the dovish side, and any signals or comments from the BoC that they’ll pause hikes should be a negative for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook due to the slowdown in the US, as well as rising risks to the consumer and the housing market, and potential negative impact for commodities like oil, we remain cautious on the currency (even though it’s moved much higher than we anticipated from the start of the year). With a lot of good news priced in, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts. With the bank now very close to terminal rate expectations, markets will want to know whether the bank thinks the terminal rate currently priced is adequate or not, so watching for any BoC comments on this point will be important.
by thunderpips
1
💵Canadian Dollar/Swiss Franc 💵 Analyze(Double Top Pattern)🗻🗻 It seems that the Canadian Dollar/Swiss Franc is currently making a double top pattern. Since the slope of the price approaching the neckline at the Top 2 is more significant than Top 1, as well as the divergence between the two tops, I predict that the neckline will be broken, and the Canadian Dollar/Swiss Franc will go down to the support zone and target of ​​the pattern. It is better to look for confirmation of a valid break of the neckline in lower time frames. 🔅Canadian Dollar/Swiss Franc (CADCHF) Timeframe 1H⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
3
Bank of Canada raised its interest rate by 75 bpsEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 USD/JPY 🔼 XAU 🔼 WTI 🔽 Coinciding with the greenback’s softening, the Bank of Canada raised its interest rate by 75 basis points to 3.25%. USD/CAD rose to 1.3125, and USD/JPY reached a high at 144.99, then retreated to 143.7. EUR/USD briefly surfaced above the parity before closing at 0.9999, as the market expects a 75 basis points rate hike from the European Central Bank tonight. The Pound/Dollar pair closed higher with minor gains at 1.1525, after sliding to a low of 1.1413, not seen since 1985. Although the Australian trade balance only recorded an $8.733 billion reading, considerably lower than the original estimate of $14.500 billion. The GDP results were not far from the mark, a 3.6% quarterly increase enabled the Aussie to climb to 0.6769 against the US dollar. Gold futures recovered and stabilized at $1,727.8 an ounce as the greenback eased. Slowing global demands saw WTI crude futures returning to pre-Russian invasion levels at $81.94 a barrel. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsCAD – The Canadian dollar edged higher on Wednesday. The currency rebounded from its lowest level in nearly eight weeks as investor sentiment picked up and the Bank of Canada raised interest rates to a 14-year high. Commenting on the Bank of Canada’s September meeting, Reuters stated: “The BoC hiked its benchmark rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to 3.25% as expected, and signaled its most aggressive tightening campaign in decades was not yet done as it battles to tame inflation. Money markets expect about 50 basis points of additional tightening by the end of 2022.”
by thunderpips
3
Divergence found on EUR/CAD pair 4-hourFor the last couple of months, the EUR has maintained a weak position against many of its trading partners. This includes the Canadian dollar. The Canadian dollar has benefitted immensely from the high cost of crude, in addition to the Bank of Canada (BoC) moving much faster than the European Central Bank (ECB) to start hiking interest rates in the face of inflationary pressure. Yesterday, the BoC enacted a 75 basis-points rate hike, its fifth post-pandemic hike. Today, the ECB is expected to deliver a 75-basis points rate hike, only its second post pandemic rate hike. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS. From the weekly timeframe, EUR/CAD is primarily on a downtrend. We also see a classic divergence in the Money Flow Index (MFI). The Money Flow Index (MFI) is a technical indicator that measures how money flows into and out of a security over a specified period. The MFI is an indicator that combines momentum and volume with an RSI formula. With a classic divergence, the MFI indicates a reduced volume as price trends downwards. (see related ideas) On the 4-hour time frame, we can see that the EUR/CAD pair has been consolidating in a tight range, between 1.2891 and 1.3242. If we eye the pair’s movement within this range, it contrasts with the weekly trend. In fact, the EUR/CAD pair is up 1.8% since the beginning of the consolation period starting august 24. If we apply an RSI on the chart, we might like to note that the recent bullish push is fast approaching the overbought bottom zone just above 1.3160. If the price level can break above 1.13178, you might expect an ever-growing resistance to upside all the way up to 1.3242.
by BlackBull_Markets
💵British Pound/Canadian Dollar 💵 Analyze!!!British Pound/Canadian Dollar is running in the Heavy Support zone and near the lower line of descending channel. I expect the British Pound/Canadian Dollar to go up to the middle line of the descending channel. It should be noted that this growth will be temporary. 🔅British Pound/Canadian Dollar (GBPCAD) Timeframe 4H⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
10
CAD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSCAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The CAD has enjoyed far more upside in the past few weeks than we anticipated. We’ve been cautious on the currency given Canada’s dependency on the US (>70% of exports) where the clear signs of a faster than expected slowdown and possible recession should deteriorate the growth outlook for Canada. Apart from that, the risks to the Canadian housing market can negatively impact consumer spending as interest rates rise higher at aggressive speed. Potentially damaging the wealth effect created by the rapid rise in house prices since covid. However, despite the risks to the economy and the outlook, markets still price in a strangely favourable growth environment for Canada, also supported by a big push higher in terms of trade due to the rise in commodity prices. Furthermore, despite clear warning signals, the BoC has chosen to ignore the negatives and has stayed very hawkish, hiking 1.0% in July. The market’s reaction after the 1.0% was quite telling though, with the CAD pushing lower afterwards. This suggests that those players that were long could’ve used the hike as a spot to take profit, or it could be the market pricing in a possible pause for the BoC in the months ahead because hiking so aggressive now means reaching a level to pause their cycle much faster. Either way, we remain cautious on the CAD and favour short-term catalysts that provide us with shorting opportunities. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Catalysts that see further upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. The correlation has been hit and miss in recent weeks though. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. Even though lots of tightening has been priced for the BoC, any overly hawkish comments from the BoC or big upside surprises in econ data could trigger short-term upside, but with a 100bsp providing no upside, risks are titled to the downside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. With a lot of tightening priced into STIRs, and a 100bsp hike providing no support for the CAD, we think risks are skewed lower, and any big downside surprises in econ data could offer decent shorting opportunities for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook due to the slowdown in the US, as well as rising risks to the consumer and the housing market, and potential negative impact for commodities like oil, we remain cautious on the currency (even though it’s moved much higher than we anticipated from the start of the year). With a lot of good news priced in, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts. CHF FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH BASELINE The CHF has been supported in recent months as STIR markets have steadily priced in higher interest rates for Switzerland, as well the SNB’s reluctance to intervene in the currency markets to try and weaken the CHF. At their June meeting, the SNB took a very aggressive policy step by hiking rates with 50bsp and removing their previous classification that the CHF is ‘highly valued’. Unlike other central banks, the SNB has chosen to try and tackle inflation before it runs rampant by hiking rates aggressively. Their hike in June was the first hike since 2007, and if the bank follows through with a hike in September it will mean Switzerland will have positive interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. There is scope for further CHF upside in the months ahead with 4 supporting drivers. SNB’s hawkish tilt, the bank’s acceptance of a stronger CHF with less intervention, negative underlying risk sentiment driven by the global cyclical slowdown, rising inflation . The SNB did note that they are willing to be active in the foreign exchange market to ensure appropriate monetary conditions which means too much CHF strength could get the wrong attention from the bank. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Any incoming data (especially CPI on Thursday) or SNB comments that causes markets to price in even more aggressive policy from the bank could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. The more aggressive markets think the ECB will be with incoming hikes, the more aggressive they will be for the SNB. Thus, data that trigger hawkish ECB expectations could also be supportive for the CHF. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES The SNB has not been as active in trying to devalue the CHF through sight deposits as they have been in recent years. With the bank now on a hiking cycle, any drastic appreciation could spark some intervention and would be a bearish catalyst. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CHF. Further lower repricing of ECB hikes could trigger downside in the CHF as well, and the biggest dovish risk for the currency is a big surprise miss on any incoming CPI data. BIGGER PICTURE The SNB surprised with a 50bsp hike and signalled, that unlike other central banks, they will not get behind the curve. Apart from a hawkish central bank , we also have the economy on a steady footing, as well as less risk of intervention as SNB’s Jordan said they no longer see the CHF as highly valued (there is of course risk that they could intervene if the CHF appreciates too much too fast). This means the bias for the CHF is bullish and we’re looking for dips as CHF for buying opportunities.
by thunderpips
1