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Canadiandollar

USDCAD Optimal Sell opportunity for September.The USDCAD pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since September 2021. This 1 year of steady growth has given us a very clear trading outlook for buy-low sell-high set-ups. It is how we got an almost perfect buy on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on our last update more than a month ago: The price is now again near the Higher Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Up, having rebounded 4 days ago on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is a prime candidate for a sell, which depending on your trading horizon can target the 1D MA50 (short-term) and the 1D MA200 (medium-term). There is also an inner Higher Lows Zone (green) involved below the 1D MA200 as a Support. Keep an eye on the 1D MACD crosses for entry timing. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot
2
EURCAD: Time to Fall?! 🇪🇺🇨🇦 Hey traders, Update for EURCAD pair. As you remember, we spotted earlier a confirmed breakout of a major daily structure support. Analyzing the reaction of the price to the broken structure, I spotted a confirmed bearish breakout of a rising wedge on 1H time frame. I believe it may trigger a bearish continuation. Goals: 1.296 / 1.2922 ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
3
NZDCAD 1D MA50 is the key. Sell below, buy above.The NZDCAD pair has offered us an excellent pattern for a sell high/ buy low plan on our previous analysis more than two months ago: As you see, we were successful on the sell exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) rejection and the buy on the Lower Lows trend-line of both the Megaphone and Channel Down patterns. Right now there is a conflict as to where we could be in relation to the prior formations. This may be a quick accumulation below the 1D MA50 similar to July 30 2021 (green circle) or a failure below the 1D MA50 similar to April 15 2022. The 1D MA50 can give the solution to this. As long as 1D candles close below it, the action is a sell targeting first the 0.79100 Support and the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (0.7745) as part of a new Lower Low formation. A closing above the 1D MA50 though, should be taken as a bullish signal, targeting the 0.8250 Resistance and potentially the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
1
GBPCAD: Important Key Level Ahead 🇬🇧🇨🇦 Here on GBPCAD we have a perfect example of the importance of higher time frame analysis: The pair broke and closed below a key daily structure support this week. Even though, it is a strong bearish clue, I spotted a key monthly support lying slightly below the broken area. Watching how the price reacted to that level in the past, I would suggest patiently waiting for now. If the price breaks the underlined green level and closes below that on a monthly, then a further decline will be expected. And while the price remains above that, I will expect a pullback! Be very careful! ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
7
EUR CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE In recent weeks, the persistently high inflation has seen the ECB take a more hawkish turn with the bank hiking rates by 50bsp at their July meeting. Additional pressure on inflation from gas supply shortages and Rhine River levels in Germany means the ECB will be forced to continue hiking rates. But the bank quelled any hawkish excitement at their July meeting by explaining they are frontloading hikes and not signalling a higher terminal rate with their bigger than expected July hike. The bank also failed to ease spread fragmentation concerns with their new Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) as the eligibility criteria means countries like Italy and Spain that will need the support the most might have a tough time qualifying. Combined with political concerns and additional inflation pressures, further spread widening looks likely for now. Right now, even though policy and spreads are important, the main story and driver for the EUR is the economic outlook. Recent growth data continues to surprise to the downside at a rapid pace and further stoking recession fears for the Eurozone. Even though the bias remains lower, a lot of negatives have been priced in from a tactical point of view so worth keeping that in mind. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES De-escalation or cease fire in Ukraine would open up a lot of EUR upside. Also keep Italian politics in mind where successful attempts to avoid a snap election could ease spread widening & support the EUR. Stagflation risks remains high and recent data has invigorated recession fears, but with lots of bad news priced any materially better-than-expected growth data could spark some relief. Spread fragmentation remains a concern, especially with Italian politics and the ECB’s failed attempt to reassure markets. Any TPI comments that convinces markets it can solve fragmentation issues should be supportive for the EUR. Energy supply is also in focus, which means watching gas flows from Russia. If Russia increases gas flows to more regular levels it should ease some supply concerns and see EUR upside. Rhine river concerns are one to watch, any good news on water levels and resumption of normal transport could be a bullish catalyst for the EUR. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Any escalation in the Ukraine war that risks including NATO would be big negative risks. Also keep Italian politics in mind, where any failed attempts to avoid a snap election should add further pressure on the EUR. Recent data has invigorated recession fears. Even though lots of bad news is priced, any materially worse-than-expected growth data could spark further downside some relief. Spread fragmentation remains in focus, and if the ECB fails to act when we see big jolts higher in the BTP/ Bund spread, or if any TPI comment further concern markets about its effectiveness, it could trigger bearish reactions in the EUR. Energy supply is also in focus, which means watching gas flows from Russia. If Russia decreases gas flows even further, it should increase supply concerns and see EUR downside. Rhine river concerns are one to watch, any bad news on water levels and continued breakdown in transportation could be a bearish catalyst for the EUR. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish with recent leading indicators pointing to a much faster economic slowdown than markets had previously expected. The current bearish drivers (geopolitics, stagflation, spread fragmentation, energy supply concerns) far outweigh the positives from a hawkish ECB. Recession risks have opened up a narrative change for the EUR which have seen markets adjust forecasts to reflect higher recession probabilities that continues to weigh on the EUR. With lots of bad news priced in there is risks in chasing the EUR lower, but the fundamental outlook remains bleak. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The CAD has enjoyed far more upside in the past few weeks than we anticipated. We’ve been cautious on the currency given Canada’s dependency on the US (>70% of exports) where the clear signs of a faster than expected slowdown and possible recession should deteriorate the growth outlook for Canada. Apart from that, the risks to the Canadian housing market can negatively impact consumer spending as interest rates rise higher at aggressive speed. Potentially damaging the wealth effect created by the rapid rise in house prices since covid. However, despite the risks to the economy and the outlook, markets still price in a very favourable growth environment for Canada, also supported by a big push higher in terms of trade due to the rise in commodity prices. Furthermore, despite clear warning signals, the BoC has chosen to ignore the negatives and has stayed surprisingly hawkish, hiking 1.0% in July. The market’s reaction after the 1.0% was quite telling though, with the CAD pushing lower afterwards. This suggests that those players that were long could’ve used the hike as a spot to take profit, or it could be the market pricing in a possible pause for the BoC in the months ahead because hiking so aggressive now means reaching a level to pause their cycle much faster. Either way, we remain cautious on the CAD and favour short-term catalysts that provide us with shorting opportunities. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Catalysts that see further upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. The correlation has been hit and miss in recent weeks though. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. Even though lots of tightening has been priced for the BoC, any overly hawkish comments from the BoC or big upside surprises in econ data could trigger short-term upside, but with a 100bsp providing no upside, risks are titled to the downside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. With a lot of tightening priced into STIRs, and a 100bsp hike providing no support for the CAD, we think risks are skewed lower, and any big downside surprises in econ data could offer decent shorting opportunities for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook due to the slowdown in the US, as well as rising risks to the consumer and the housing market, and potential negative impact for commodities like oil, we remain cautious on the currency (even though it’s moved much higher than we anticipated from the start of the year). With a lot of good news priced in, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts.
by thunderpips
CADJPY going lower for the next 2 monthsThe CADJPY pair has broken below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on July 29 and has stayed below it since then, being unable to made a break-out and return to the bullish trend of the past year. The longer it fails to do so, the more selling accumulation we will see. In fact both in terms of RSI and MACD, this resembles the sequence of June - September 2021, where the price again fell below the 1D MA50 and being unable to recover it, it made consistent Lower Lows. Based on the RSI Lower Highs and MACD Cross symmetries, it appears that, relative to the 2021 pattern, we are still near the start of this bearish move. The target is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) - 1W MA50 (red trend-line) cluster, which has been the pair's long-term Support Zone since November 2020. On the other hand, a candle close above the 1D MA50 can provide a short-term rise towards the Higher Highs trend-line where an even more comfortable sell position can be taken. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot
3
AUDCAD Important 1D MA200 test. Low risk trades around it.The AUDCAD pair has been on a strong rise since the July 13 Low on the 1 year Lower Lows zone. That was a buy signal that we posted exactly a month ago: The rebound has now reached the critical 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the Resistance in the past 3 months. The last Lower Low on January 28 2022, had a rally that did break above the 1D MA200 and only stopped (and got rejected) on the 1W MA300 (red trend-line). With the 1W RSI being on a rebound following its contact with its long-term Buy Zone, this is quite likely to happen again. As a result, a low risk trading approach right now is to buy only if we close above the 1D MA200 and target just before the price hits the 1W MA300. Until the break-out happens, we can take a short-term sell, targeting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
EURCAD Trade with break-outsThe EURCAD pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Down since the September 20 2021 High. Right now it is consolidating after the July 13 Low, being below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since June 28. Also below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, this calls for extended selling to new Lower Lows as it happened two times before within the Channel Down. However a break above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), should initiate a short-term push to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), as it happened on February 03. Similarly, a candle close above the 1D MA200, should signal a complete long-term trend shift from bearish to bullish. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot