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Canadiandollar

💵U.S.Dollar/Canadian Dollar 💵Analyze !!!U.S.Dollar/ Canadian Dollar was able to make an Expanding Ending Diagonal. I expect that U.S.Dollar/ Canadian Dollar will reverse from the Resistance zone and then touch my 🎯targets🎯. 🔅U.S.Dollar/ Canadian Dollar Analyze (USDCAD) Timeframe 2H⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends, Thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
10
GBP CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE The negative outlook for the UK economy has been a key source of the Pound’s downside. Stagflation risks are high with CPI > 10% and recession expected in 4Q22 (lasting 5 quarters). It has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE rate hikes. With the energy cap expected to rise again in October 2022 and April 2023, the new PM hit the ground running by announcing a much bigger than expected fiscal plan which will keep energy prices capped for 2 years for households and will also offer support for businesses. According to preliminary research, this means inflation most likely already peaked in the UK (as the main driver has been energy), and also means that the expected hit to the economy should be less severe than previously thought. Thus, even though the bias for the GBP remains bearish as a recession still seems likely, the fiscal news is a positive development for Sterling on balance, and with a lot of bad news already priced in we are expecting some reprieve for Sterling with asymmetric risk to incoming data (good news expected to have a bigger upside impact compared to the impact from bad news). POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any incoming data that surprises meaningfully higher could trigger relief for the GBP. With focus on stagflation, any downside surprises in CPI or factors that decrease inflation pressures are expected to support the GBP and not pressure it. The fiscal announcements last week were a welcome change, and any further support measures announced by the new PM should continue to ease stagflation fears. With UK threats of triggering Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do Brexit is in focus. For now, markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any major de-escalation can see some upside for Sterling. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any material downside surprises in growth data can still trigger short-term pressure. With focus on stagflation, any upside surprises in CPI or factors that increase more inflation pressures are expected to weigh on the GBP and not support it. The fiscal announcements last week were a welcome change, and any potential walk back from the new PM on the planslaid out last week would increase stagflation fears once again. With UK threats of triggering Article 16 and EU threats to terminate the Brexit deal if they do Brexit is in focus. For now, markets have rightly ignored this as posturing, but any actual escalation can see sharp GBP downside. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamentals for Sterling remain bearish , especially after the BoE’s recent forecasts of a 5-quarter recession in the UK. Furthermore, given the risks to growth, there is growing speculation that the BoE might not be too far away from pausing their current hiking cycle. Anything that exacerbates stagflation fears is expected to weigh on the Pound and anything that alleviates some pressure could see some reprieve. Since Sterling is trading at fresh new cycle lows, the risk to reward for chasing it lower looks unattractive, and we could see asymmetric reactions skewed to the upside on positive data & news. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The CAD has enjoyed far more upside in the past few weeks than we anticipated. We’ve been cautious on the currency given Canada’s dependency on the US (>70% of exports) where the clear signs of a faster than expected slowdown and possible recession should deteriorate the growth outlook for Canada. Apart from that, the risks to the Canadian housing market can negatively impact consumer spending as interest rates rise higher at aggressive speed. Potentially damaging the wealth effect created by the rapid rise in house prices since covid. However, despite the risks to the economy and the outlook, markets still price in a strangely favourable growth environment for Canada, also supported by a big push higher in terms of trade due to the rise in commodity prices. The market’s reaction after the 75bsp was fairly muted as the bank didn’t provide any important additional info in their statement that markets didn’t already know. With their frontloading, the bank is now just one 50bsp or two 25bsp hikes away from hitting terminal rate expectations, which means any upside from policy differentials should being to fade. Either way, we remain cautious on the CAD and favour short-term catalysts that provide us with shorting opportunities. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Catalysts that see further upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. The correlation has been hit and miss in recent weeks though. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. After the bank’s frontloading, there is a very high bar to surprise on the hawkish side for the BoC, but if the bank were to say they think STIR market pricing for the terminal rate is too low that can provide upside for the CAD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. With the bank just 50bsp away from terminal rate expectations, it won’t take much to surprise on the dovish side, and any signals or comments from the BoC that they’ll pause hikes should be a negative for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook due to the slowdown in the US, as well as rising risks to the consumer and the housing market, and potential negative impact for commodities like oil, we remain cautious on the currency (even though it’s moved much higher than we anticipated from the start of the year). With a lot of good news priced in, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts. With the bank now very close to terminal rate expectations, markets will want to know whether the bank thinks the terminal rate currently priced is adequate or not, so watching for any BoC comments on this point will be important.
by thunderpips
1
💵Canadian Dollar/Swiss Franc 💵 Analyze(Double Top Pattern)🗻🗻 It seems that the Canadian Dollar/Swiss Franc is currently making a double top pattern. Since the slope of the price approaching the neckline at the Top 2 is more significant than Top 1, as well as the divergence between the two tops, I predict that the neckline will be broken, and the Canadian Dollar/Swiss Franc will go down to the support zone and target of ​​the pattern. It is better to look for confirmation of a valid break of the neckline in lower time frames. 🔅Canadian Dollar/Swiss Franc (CADCHF) Timeframe 1H⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
3
Bank of Canada raised its interest rate by 75 bpsEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 USD/JPY 🔼 XAU 🔼 WTI 🔽 Coinciding with the greenback’s softening, the Bank of Canada raised its interest rate by 75 basis points to 3.25%. USD/CAD rose to 1.3125, and USD/JPY reached a high at 144.99, then retreated to 143.7. EUR/USD briefly surfaced above the parity before closing at 0.9999, as the market expects a 75 basis points rate hike from the European Central Bank tonight. The Pound/Dollar pair closed higher with minor gains at 1.1525, after sliding to a low of 1.1413, not seen since 1985. Although the Australian trade balance only recorded an $8.733 billion reading, considerably lower than the original estimate of $14.500 billion. The GDP results were not far from the mark, a 3.6% quarterly increase enabled the Aussie to climb to 0.6769 against the US dollar. Gold futures recovered and stabilized at $1,727.8 an ounce as the greenback eased. Slowing global demands saw WTI crude futures returning to pre-Russian invasion levels at $81.94 a barrel. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsCAD – The Canadian dollar edged higher on Wednesday. The currency rebounded from its lowest level in nearly eight weeks as investor sentiment picked up and the Bank of Canada raised interest rates to a 14-year high. Commenting on the Bank of Canada’s September meeting, Reuters stated: “The BoC hiked its benchmark rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to 3.25% as expected, and signaled its most aggressive tightening campaign in decades was not yet done as it battles to tame inflation. Money markets expect about 50 basis points of additional tightening by the end of 2022.”
by thunderpips
3
Divergence found on EUR/CAD pair 4-hourFor the last couple of months, the EUR has maintained a weak position against many of its trading partners. This includes the Canadian dollar. The Canadian dollar has benefitted immensely from the high cost of crude, in addition to the Bank of Canada (BoC) moving much faster than the European Central Bank (ECB) to start hiking interest rates in the face of inflationary pressure. Yesterday, the BoC enacted a 75 basis-points rate hike, its fifth post-pandemic hike. Today, the ECB is expected to deliver a 75-basis points rate hike, only its second post pandemic rate hike. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS. From the weekly timeframe, EUR/CAD is primarily on a downtrend. We also see a classic divergence in the Money Flow Index (MFI). The Money Flow Index (MFI) is a technical indicator that measures how money flows into and out of a security over a specified period. The MFI is an indicator that combines momentum and volume with an RSI formula. With a classic divergence, the MFI indicates a reduced volume as price trends downwards. (see related ideas) On the 4-hour time frame, we can see that the EUR/CAD pair has been consolidating in a tight range, between 1.2891 and 1.3242. If we eye the pair’s movement within this range, it contrasts with the weekly trend. In fact, the EUR/CAD pair is up 1.8% since the beginning of the consolation period starting august 24. If we apply an RSI on the chart, we might like to note that the recent bullish push is fast approaching the overbought bottom zone just above 1.3160. If the price level can break above 1.13178, you might expect an ever-growing resistance to upside all the way up to 1.3242.
by BlackBull_Markets
💵British Pound/Canadian Dollar 💵 Analyze!!!British Pound/Canadian Dollar is running in the Heavy Support zone and near the lower line of descending channel. I expect the British Pound/Canadian Dollar to go up to the middle line of the descending channel. It should be noted that this growth will be temporary. 🔅British Pound/Canadian Dollar (GBPCAD) Timeframe 4H⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
10
CAD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSCAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The CAD has enjoyed far more upside in the past few weeks than we anticipated. We’ve been cautious on the currency given Canada’s dependency on the US (>70% of exports) where the clear signs of a faster than expected slowdown and possible recession should deteriorate the growth outlook for Canada. Apart from that, the risks to the Canadian housing market can negatively impact consumer spending as interest rates rise higher at aggressive speed. Potentially damaging the wealth effect created by the rapid rise in house prices since covid. However, despite the risks to the economy and the outlook, markets still price in a strangely favourable growth environment for Canada, also supported by a big push higher in terms of trade due to the rise in commodity prices. Furthermore, despite clear warning signals, the BoC has chosen to ignore the negatives and has stayed very hawkish, hiking 1.0% in July. The market’s reaction after the 1.0% was quite telling though, with the CAD pushing lower afterwards. This suggests that those players that were long could’ve used the hike as a spot to take profit, or it could be the market pricing in a possible pause for the BoC in the months ahead because hiking so aggressive now means reaching a level to pause their cycle much faster. Either way, we remain cautious on the CAD and favour short-term catalysts that provide us with shorting opportunities. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Catalysts that see further upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. The correlation has been hit and miss in recent weeks though. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. Even though lots of tightening has been priced for the BoC, any overly hawkish comments from the BoC or big upside surprises in econ data could trigger short-term upside, but with a 100bsp providing no upside, risks are titled to the downside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. With a lot of tightening priced into STIRs, and a 100bsp hike providing no support for the CAD, we think risks are skewed lower, and any big downside surprises in econ data could offer decent shorting opportunities for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook due to the slowdown in the US, as well as rising risks to the consumer and the housing market, and potential negative impact for commodities like oil, we remain cautious on the currency (even though it’s moved much higher than we anticipated from the start of the year). With a lot of good news priced in, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts. CHF FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH BASELINE The CHF has been supported in recent months as STIR markets have steadily priced in higher interest rates for Switzerland, as well the SNB’s reluctance to intervene in the currency markets to try and weaken the CHF. At their June meeting, the SNB took a very aggressive policy step by hiking rates with 50bsp and removing their previous classification that the CHF is ‘highly valued’. Unlike other central banks, the SNB has chosen to try and tackle inflation before it runs rampant by hiking rates aggressively. Their hike in June was the first hike since 2007, and if the bank follows through with a hike in September it will mean Switzerland will have positive interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. There is scope for further CHF upside in the months ahead with 4 supporting drivers. SNB’s hawkish tilt, the bank’s acceptance of a stronger CHF with less intervention, negative underlying risk sentiment driven by the global cyclical slowdown, rising inflation . The SNB did note that they are willing to be active in the foreign exchange market to ensure appropriate monetary conditions which means too much CHF strength could get the wrong attention from the bank. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Any incoming data (especially CPI on Thursday) or SNB comments that causes markets to price in even more aggressive policy from the bank could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. The more aggressive markets think the ECB will be with incoming hikes, the more aggressive they will be for the SNB. Thus, data that trigger hawkish ECB expectations could also be supportive for the CHF. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES The SNB has not been as active in trying to devalue the CHF through sight deposits as they have been in recent years. With the bank now on a hiking cycle, any drastic appreciation could spark some intervention and would be a bearish catalyst. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CHF. Further lower repricing of ECB hikes could trigger downside in the CHF as well, and the biggest dovish risk for the currency is a big surprise miss on any incoming CPI data. BIGGER PICTURE The SNB surprised with a 50bsp hike and signalled, that unlike other central banks, they will not get behind the curve. Apart from a hawkish central bank , we also have the economy on a steady footing, as well as less risk of intervention as SNB’s Jordan said they no longer see the CHF as highly valued (there is of course risk that they could intervene if the CHF appreciates too much too fast). This means the bias for the CHF is bullish and we’re looking for dips as CHF for buying opportunities.
by thunderpips
1
CADCHF Starting a rally to 0.78000The CADCHF pair has been trading within a very long-term Channel Up since the July 31 2020 Low. Our most recent idea back in May was focused around the incredible sell opportunity that we were handed when the price hit the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of that Channel Up: As you see the strategy was successful and the pattern played out exactly as expected. The price made a new Higher Low on August 15 and rebounded. Now it is back above both the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), indicating that this is the start of the new rally to a long-term Higher High. This notion is further strengthened by the fact that the 1D RSI and MACD indicators between June - August 2022 and July - September 2021 are identical. Our first target is the previous Higher High and now Resistance of 0.78000. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
USDCAD Optimal Sell opportunity for September.The USDCAD pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since September 2021. This 1 year of steady growth has given us a very clear trading outlook for buy-low sell-high set-ups. It is how we got an almost perfect buy on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on our last update more than a month ago: The price is now again near the Higher Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Up, having rebounded 4 days ago on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is a prime candidate for a sell, which depending on your trading horizon can target the 1D MA50 (short-term) and the 1D MA200 (medium-term). There is also an inner Higher Lows Zone (green) involved below the 1D MA200 as a Support. Keep an eye on the 1D MACD crosses for entry timing. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot
2
EURCAD: Time to Fall?! 🇪🇺🇨🇦 Hey traders, Update for EURCAD pair. As you remember, we spotted earlier a confirmed breakout of a major daily structure support. Analyzing the reaction of the price to the broken structure, I spotted a confirmed bearish breakout of a rising wedge on 1H time frame. I believe it may trigger a bearish continuation. Goals: 1.296 / 1.2922 ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
3
NZDCAD 1D MA50 is the key. Sell below, buy above.The NZDCAD pair has offered us an excellent pattern for a sell high/ buy low plan on our previous analysis more than two months ago: As you see, we were successful on the sell exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) rejection and the buy on the Lower Lows trend-line of both the Megaphone and Channel Down patterns. Right now there is a conflict as to where we could be in relation to the prior formations. This may be a quick accumulation below the 1D MA50 similar to July 30 2021 (green circle) or a failure below the 1D MA50 similar to April 15 2022. The 1D MA50 can give the solution to this. As long as 1D candles close below it, the action is a sell targeting first the 0.79100 Support and the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (0.7745) as part of a new Lower Low formation. A closing above the 1D MA50 though, should be taken as a bullish signal, targeting the 0.8250 Resistance and potentially the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
1