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Canadiandollar

BOC Rate Cut Bets Grow as Loonie Stands Firm R2 1.3947 – 5 August/2024 high – Strong R1 1.3900 – Figure – Medium S1 1.3718 – 9 August low – Medium S2 1.3700 – 19 July low – Medium We remain in the thick of thin summer trade, something that must be taken into consideration when reflecting on price action. The market has done a good job overall recovering from last Monday’s panic mess and the question on everyone’s mind is whether or not all of that doom and gloom is behind us or just the start to another intense wave of risk off flow. The Canadian Dollar held up rather well on Friday despite the discouraging Canada employment report. The local rate market has now begun to price in the 10% possibility for an even bigger 50 basis point rate cut at the Bank of Canada's next meeting in early September. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German wholesale prices, Canada building permits, US consumer inflation expectations, and the US monthly budget statement. A sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
1
GBPCAD Waiting for the 1D MA200 to confirm the bottom.The GBPCAD pair broke this week below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and is (including today) on a 2 day green streak. However this is technically not convincing for us to buy as despite holding the Internal Higher Lows trend-line, it is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) that has confirmed the major Higher Lows (bottoms) of the 11-month Channel Up. In fact, it was a similar Internal Higher Lows trend-line that broke on April 01 2024 and despite a short-term rebound, broke downwards to confirm a bottom on the 1D MA200. As a result, we are waiting for that ideal technical opportunity to long and target 1.8000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
1
USDCAD Analysis: Anticipating a New Bullish ImpulseUSDCAD is beginning a new bullish impulse after retesting the previous resistance area, which has now transformed into a strong demand zone. This retest is a crucial technical signal, suggesting that the pair is poised for a potential new upward movement. By examining the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, we observe that the positioning of large traders supports a bullish outlook for the USD against the Canadian Dollar. This sentiment is further reinforced by our supply and demand analysis, which highlights the demand zone as a key level where buying interest has emerged, providing a foundation for the price to move higher. Seasonality trends also play a significant role in our analysis. Historically, this period of the year tends to favor a stronger USD against the CAD, adding another layer of confidence to our bullish forecast. The confluence of these factors—the retest of the demand zone, favorable COT positioning, and positive seasonality—strengthens our expectation of a sustained upward movement in USDCAD. We are closely monitoring the price action and are prepared to capitalize on this bullish setup. Should the price continue to rise from the current levels, we anticipate further gains. However, it's essential to remain vigilant and adapt to any market changes that might influence our analysis. Additionally, for a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing this expected bullish trend, please follow our detailed analysis on CAD futures provided below. This in-depth analysis will offer insights into the broader market dynamics affecting the Canadian Dollar and support our long position strategy in USDCAD. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USDCAD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
USDCAD Approaching the most optimal sell level.The USDCAD pair is on the 2nd strong green 1W candle, following the rebound on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and is approaching Resistance 1 (1.39000), the October 30 2023 High. This is technically the most optimal sell opportunity on a 1-year basis. The short-term Target is the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) on a potential contact with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.36450. Target 2 is at 1.34500 (marginally above the 0.618 Fib), which will be a -3.23% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
1
CADJPY Strong sell opportunity at the top of the Channel UpThe CADJPY pair gave us an excellent buy signal last time we looked at it (May 30, see chart below) that easily hit our 116.500 Target: Now it is flashing the opposite, a strong sell signal right after a Higher High (top trend-line) rejection on the 7-month Channel Up pattern. Ahead of a 1D MACD Bearish Cross, the opportunity becomes even more obvious. Every Bearish Leg hit at least the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) before making a Higher Low, so our Target is set at 115.500, which is an optimal level towards the final week of July. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
AUDCAD Sell signal emerging on a 3.5-year Resistance!The AUDCAD pair just hit on the week's opening the Lower Highs trend-line that was first initiated on February 22 2021. As the 1W RSI is just below its own 3.5-year Resistance Zone, the first strong long-term sell opportunity flashes. Check below how the last AUDCAD analysis (May 29, see chart below) provided an excellent buy opportunity: The more short-term pattern though since the September 25 2023 Double Bottom is a Channel Up and it is close to pricing its new Higher High. This is just above the 3.5 year Lower Highs trend-line, so we give the sell signal this much tolerance level for some deviation. Our Target on the medium-term is 0.9000 (Support Zone 1, similar symmetry to the previous Higher Low on Support Zone 2). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
1
EURCAD Testing the 1D MA50. Sell opportunity.The EURCAD pair eventually formed the new Lower High on the 17-month Channel Down as presented on our last analysis (May 27, see chart below) and got rejected: The rejection extended to as low as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and a short-term rebound has brought the price back to a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) rejection. Both previous Bearish Legs declined at least by -3.85%. We expect this 1D MA50 rejection to lead the price to at least Support 1, with our Target being 1.45000 (just above it). On a side-note, check the high degree of symmetry between the 1D RSI sequences of the Channel's Legs. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
NZDCAD Excellent buy opportunity on this pull-back.The NZDCAD pair gave us a great buy entry last time we looked at it (May 08, see chart below) and made a direct hit on our 0.8500 Target: The price got heavily rejected straight after and just hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again. The pattern that seems to be prevailing is a Channel Up (blue). The last time we had a Higher High rejection on its top, the pair pulled-back to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and then made a short-term bounce to the Internal Lower Highs trend-line. As a result, we will be using this opportunity to buy and target 0.84500 (just below the symmetrical Lower Highs trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
CADCHF Testing the 1D MA50. Sell opportunity.The CADCHF pair has been on a strong 2-week rise after the 1D RSI turned oversold (below 30.00) that is testing today the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 1 month (since May 31). Since the dominant long-term pattern has been a 18-month Channel Down, we expect this 1D MA50 test to deliver a rejection similar to November 03 2023, and resume the new Bearish Leg. Our Target is purely symmetrical at 0.63100 (Support 1). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
GBPCAD About to test the 1D MA50. Sell opportunity.The GBPCAD pair is on the latest Bearish Leg of the underlying Channel Up (blue) pattern and is about to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since May 14. Once the 1D MA50 breaks, we expect a continuation of the Bearish Leg all the way to the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up. Since 2023, -2.66% to -3.08% pull-backs have been common on this pair. As a result, we are looking towards the minimum -2.66% decline, which gives us a Target of 1.71500 and will make a technical Higher Low on the Channel. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
USD/CAD:USD Faces Pressure Amid Eurozone Political UncertaintyEid Mubarak to all our Muslim brothers and sisters, Permit me to do a detailed commentary of economic event on EUR, CAD, and USD. Eurozone Political Instability Impacting the Euro The Euro remains under significant pressure, primarily due to escalating fears of a financial crisis in France. Political turmoil and economic instability in the Eurozone, particularly in one of its key economies, have shaken investor confidence. This instability has led to a weaker Euro as investors seek safer assets, impacting currency markets globally. Canadian Dollar Strengthens on Positive Economic Data The Canadian Dollar, commonly referred to as the Loonie, saw a notable increase in value on Friday. This upward movement was driven by positive economic data from Canada, which reported a 1.1% rise in factory sales. The stronger-than-expected performance in the manufacturing sector has boosted investor confidence in the Canadian economy, thereby strengthening the Loonie. Federal Reserve's Policy and Its Effects on USD The Federal Reserve's recent policy meeting introduced a slightly hawkish tone, which initially led to a rise in expectations of interest rate cuts. However, following the meeting, these expectations have diminished. The Fed’s stance suggests a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments, which has implications for the USD's strength. The reduced likelihood of significant rate cuts has provided some support to the US Dollar. USD/CAD Outlook and Market Sentiment Looking at the USD/CAD outlook for Monday, bearish momentum is evident as the US Dollar experiences a decline. This drop is largely attributed to the ongoing political uncertainty in the Eurozone, which has ripple effects across global financial markets. Despite the Fed’s hawkish hints, the prevailing sentiment reflects a cautious approach among investors, influenced by geopolitical and economic concerns. In summary, while the US Dollar initially climbed due to Eurozone instability, the overall outlook for USD/CAD appears bearish. The interplay between Eurozone political issues, positive Canadian economic data, and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance will continue to shape market dynamics in the near term. Cheers and happy trading!
Short
by Samuel124
USD/CAD Edges Lower as Traders Eye Key US Economic DataUSD/CAD is trending lower during the Asian session on Wednesday, currently trading around 1.3750. This recent movement follows a notable reversal from the 1.3790 area, where technical indicators suggested a potential change in direction. Technical Analysis From a technical standpoint, the USD/CAD pair exhibited signs of overbought conditions around the 1.3790 mark, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the H4 timeframe. A divergence was observed, signaling that the bullish momentum was weakening and a reversal was likely. The pair has since edged lower, reflecting these technical signals. Market Sentiment and Economic Data The market is now focused on upcoming US economic data releases, which are anticipated to inject significant volatility into the trading environment. The key events include the release of the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. Core CPI Data The Core CPI data, set to be released today, is a critical measure of inflation that excludes food and energy prices. This indicator is closely watched by traders and investors as it provides insights into underlying inflationary pressures within the US economy. Stronger-than-expected CPI figures could reinforce expectations of a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, potentially supporting the US Dollar and influencing the USD/CAD pair. FOMC Decision In addition to the inflation data, the FOMC decision is another pivotal event for the day. The Federal Reserve's policy statement and subsequent press conference will offer guidance on the central bank's outlook and future monetary policy actions. Market participants will be keenly observing any hints regarding the timing and extent of interest rate adjustments. The FOMC's tone and projections will be crucial in determining the next directional move for the USD/CAD pair. Anticipated Volatility Given the significance of these economic events, traders are preparing for heightened volatility. The Core CPI and FOMC decision are expected to provide the necessary catalyst for a potential continuation of the reversal observed in the USD/CAD pair. Depending on the outcomes, we could see significant movements as traders react to the data and adjust their positions accordingly. in conclusion USD/CAD is currently consolidating its recent losses around 1.3750, following a technical reversal from the 1.3790 area. The pair's future direction will likely be influenced by today's Core CPI release and the FOMC decision. Traders should be prepared for increased volatility and potential continuation of the bearish trend, especially if the economic data aligns with the technical indicators pointing towards a reversal.
Short
by FOREXN1
1