Cad/Jpy bounce backTrade Idea for CADJPY
Bias: Very Bullish
Overall Score: 9
Commitment of Traders (COT) Bias: 3
Institutional traders are showing a robust bullish sentiment towards CADJPY, indicating a forecast of continued upside.
Retail Sentiment: 1
Retail traders appear to be bearish on CADJPY. Given the tendency for retail traders to often be on the losing side, their bearish sentiment serves as a contrarian bullish signal for us, supporting our bullish view.
Seasonality: 1
Current seasonal trends favor a bullish momentum for CADJPY.
Trend Reading: 2
CADJPY is on an upward trajectory, further underscoring the bullish momentum.
GDP Growth: -1
A slight negative in GDP growth, but the dominant bullish indicators more than compensate for this.
Inflation: 2
Inflation metrics are aligning favorably, adding to the bullish outlook.
Unemployment: 0
Unemployment figures are neutral and do not sway our primary bullish perspective.
Interest Rates: 1
Interest rate dynamics are pointing to CADJPY strength.
Additional Factor: Increasing Oil Prices
Canada's role as a major oil exporter means rising oil prices often buoy the CAD. This backdrop solidifies our bullish stance on CADJPY.
Conclusion: With a mix of strong bullish indicators, particularly the COT bias, retail sentiment (considered contrarily), trend direction, and rising oil prices, CADJPY appears poised for bullish movement.
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Canadiandollar
CADJPY Confirmed buy signalThe CADJPY pair has been trading within a Fibonacci Channel Up since the March 2020 market bottom. The recent rejection on the 1.5 Fibonacci level back to the 0.5 show it test and hold an important Support, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has only broken once in 3 years (since November 2020) and that was during last year's inflation crisis.
As long as it holds, it is a strong buy opportunity and evidence for that is the 1W RSI which has printed the same pattern (Channel Down break into a rebound) as the September 26 2022 and August 16 2021 lows. Both initiated rebounds that hit their prior Resistance levels.
As a result, we are taking this opportunity to buy and target the previous Resistance (from the September 25 High) at 111.000.
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AUDCAD Buy signal on 1D Golden Cross.The AUDCAD pair is trading within a Channel Up pattern that has currently been rejected twice on Resistance 1 (0.905500). With the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crossing today (or tomorrow the latest) above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) to complete a 1D Golden Cross, and the 1D MACD forming now a Bullish Cross, we have a strong case for a break-out above Resistance 1 this time.
Once this takes place, we will buy and target 0.9200 as the new Higher High of the Channel Up. It will be a +3.76% rise from the recent Higher Low, which is roughly the % rise of the previous 2 bullish legs.
Bonus material (past AUDCAD trade):
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USDCAD Bullish signal emerged inside a 15 month Rectangle.USDCAD has hit the 0.236 Fibonacci level of the 15 month Rectangle pattern after a continuous decline since the November 1st High.
This level has been a technical buy entry on 5 occassions.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.36350 (0.618 Fibonacci level).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) has printed a Falling Support, which has been a bottom formation on April 13th and June 22nd.
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EURCAD Sell signal on a confirmed break-out.The EURCAD pair broke below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) again after getting rejected on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which establishes it as a Resistance. The long-term pattern is a Channel Down (blue) since the February 10 Low and the current (dotted) Channel Down is the Bearish Leg towards a new Lower Low.
We are taking this bearish break-out signal for the 2nd phase of the Leg and will target Support 1 at 1.43300. The downtrend can extend as low as 1.42180 and -5.50% from the High (as on the June 08 Low) but best settle for an established Support. If the 1D MACD completes a Bullish Cross before the 1.43300 target is achieved, we will close the short regardless, as all MACD Bullish Crosses below the 0.00 mark in 2023 have initiated very strong rallies.
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USDCAD: Important Breakout 🇺🇸🇨🇦
We see a massive bearish breakout on USDCAD on a daily.
The price broke and closed below 1.3365 - 1.3400 huge demand area.
The broken structure turned into a resistance.
We may anticipate a bearish continuation to 1.327 / 1.316
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USD/CAD Nears Three-Month Low as US Dollar Bears Take ControlUSD/CAD Nears Three-Month Low as US Dollar Bears Take Control
The USD/CAD pair is facing sustained selling pressure for the third consecutive day, reaching a near three-month low during the early European session. Trading around the 1.3385 area, down 0.15% for the day, the pair appears vulnerable to further downside as the US Dollar (USD) succumbs to bearish sentiment.
As of the current moment, the price hovers around 1.3375, indicating a potential for additional bearish momentum.
The USD Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback against a basket of currencies, has plunged to a level not seen in over four months following the Federal Reserve's (Fed) recent dovish pivot. The central bank's announcement on Wednesday marked the conclusion of its monetary policy tightening cycle and outlined plans for at least three 25 basis points rate cuts in 2024. Coupled with the prevailing risk-on sentiment evident in the global equity markets, the US Dollar is facing intensified selling pressure, weighing on the USD/CAD pair.
In this scenario, the outlook suggests a potential continuation of bearish momentum for the USD/CAD pair. Traders will be closely monitoring key support levels and market dynamics for insights into the pair's future trajectory.
Our preference
Short positions below 1.3450 with targets at 1.3330 & 1.3300 in extension.
NZDCAD - 4H bullishLet’s break down the NZD-CAD pair's recent movements. Back in October, we witnessed three bullish legs that propelled the index upward, following a touch on the last demand zone. Fast forward to December, the pattern repeats with another three-leg movement bringing us back down to that demand zone.
Now here's the exciting part – based on these patterns, I'm predicting another climb, targeting at least the previous high. Stay tuned to see how this plays out in the live market
NZDCAD - BEARISH SCENARIO 📉Hello Traders !
On The Daily Time Frame, The NZDCAD Reached a Resistance Level.
The Price Created a Rectangle Pattern.
So, Let's Expect The Bearish Scenario:
If The Market Breaks The Support Level and Closes Below That,
I Will Sell on Retest...
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TARGET: 0.82450🎯
EURCAD - BULLISH SCENARIO 📈Hello Traders !
Yesterday, The EURCAD Price Reached a 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement Level.
Currently, The Price Formed a Falling Wedge Pattern.
So Let's Expect The Bullish Scenario:
If The Market Breaks The Resistance Line and Closes Above That,
We Will See a huge Bullish Move...
TARGET: 1.49050🎯
USDCAD: Sharp sell towards the annual low.USDCAD is being rejected on the 1D MA100, having turned bearish when ir crossed under the 1D MA50 on November 24th. The 1D technical outlook is naturally bearish (RSI = 40.749, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 31.294) giving us the ideal sell opportunity for an additional short, that will aim this time for a -4.00% decline from the top (TP = 1.33500). The 1D RSI is on a perfect symmetry with the April 10th rejection point.
See how our prior idea has worked:
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USDCAD: Your Trading Plan For Next Week Explained 🇺🇸🇨🇦
USDCAD closed, testing a solid horizontal daily supply zone.
Analyzing a 4H time frame, I spotted a potential head and shoulders pattern on that.
To short the pair with a confirmation next week,
pay close attention to the neckline of the pattern.
If the price breaks and closes below 1.3548,
we can anticipate a bearish movement to 1.35
Alternatively, a bullish breakout of the underlined resistance will push the prices higher.
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🚨CADNZD is Ready to Fall ➖5%🚨✅ CADNZD has managed to break the 🟢Support zone(1.213 NZD-1.202 NZD )🟢, SMA(200) , Yearly Pivot Point(1.202 NZD) , and the Support line .
💡We can consider the movement that CADNZD started about a year ago as a corrective movement in the direction of its previous main movement, which was downward and with high momentum.
🔔I expect CADNZD to continue its downward trend in the coming weeks and drop to at least 1.152 NZD.
Canadian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar Analysis (CADNZD), Daily time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
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