APHA remains the weakest name in the sectorAPHA confirmed the daily bear flag, while the rest of the sector is still holding key support - but the bulls don't have my confidence it will hold.
APHA key levels first thing tomorrow is the low of today, and the high of the recent daily bounce.
S: 11.86
R: 13.75
Canadianmj
CGC up against key daily support zoneCGC is up against a significant area of support including three price levels and the 200 day MA. Watching tomorrow for how this plays out.
Key resistance for bounce continuation & bear flag negation is 32.99
Key support is 31.85
APHA surges on Jeff Sessions' ResignationBig move today following a tweet buy President Trump that he has accepted the resignation of Attorney General Jeff Sessions
twitter.com
This came after a clear hourly bear break across the sector singling some daily consolidation was coming, but this breaking news clearly sidetracked that plan and delayed consolidation for at least a little while. I am closely watching for the hourly trend to change as the daily chart is very over extended right now
Key levels for tomorrow:
S: 16.03
R: 17.33
ACB surges on Jeff Sessions' ResignationBig move today following a tweet buy President Trump that he has accepted the resignation of Attorney General Jeff Sessions
twitter.com
This came after a clear hourly bear break across the sector singling some daily consolidation was coming, but this breaking news clearly sidetracked that plan and delayed consolidation for at least a little while. I am closely watching for the hourly trend to change as the daily chart is very over extended right now
Key levels for tomorrow:
S: 9.59
R: 10.75, 11.29
CGC surges on Jeff Sessions' ResignationCGC saw a huge move on President Trump's tweet that he has accepted the resignation of Attorney General Jeff Sessions
twitter.com
This came after a clear hourly bear break singling some daily consolidation was coming, but this breaking news clearly sidetracked that plan and delayed consolidation for at least a little while. I am closely watching for the hourly trend to change as the daily chart is very over extended right now
Key levels for tomorrow:
S: 45.10
R: 48.13
APHA fails to break daily inside barAPHA has another inside bar on the daily. Watching key levels first thing tomorrow
S: 15.11
R: 16.09
CGC breaks the inside bar bullishCGC had a nice little move after breaking the daily inside bar today. I'm looking for some profit taking tomorrow as the hourly chart needs a new support above 36.67
S: 36.37
R: 41.06, 42.43
APHA watching the hourly uptrend APHA has an hourly uptrend on watch to determine if we're going to see bounce continuation or healthy daily consolidation.
Key levels
S: 15.07
R: 16.17
Watching CGC hourly trend for clues on this bounceDecided to try something a little different today because I don't want to type up a bunch of analysis.
I'm watching the range of Thursday to break to tell me if we're going to see bounce continuation of a healthy pullback to form a daily higher low, and then try to change the daily trend with a higher high.
Key levels:
S: 35.85
R: 38.28
APH hourly equilibrium on watchThe oversold bounce is starting to feel toppy with a bearish reversal candle on the daily and declining volume. The high of the day rejected from the 20MA and we're in an hourly equilibrium now to determine if we're going to see bounce continuation or set a higher low on the daily chart.
I would also look towards Canopy for clues on how the sector leader breaks.
Key levels for hourly eq:
S: 14.65
R: 15.54
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market and the analysis I do on SPY. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and affects every stock you own.
ACB hourly equilibrium on watchThe oversold bounce is starting to feel toppy with a bearish reversal candle on the daily and declining volume. The high of the day rejected from the 100MA and we're in an hourly equilibrium now to determine if we're going to see bounce continuation or set a higher low on the daily chart.
I would also look towards Canopy for clues on how the sector leader breaks.
Key levels for hourly eq:
S: 8.63
R: 9.12
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market and the analysis I do on SPY. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and affects every stock you own.
CGC hourly equilibrium on watchThe oversold bounce is starting to feel toppy with a bearish reversal candle on the daily and declining volume. The high of the day rejected from the 100MA and we're in an hourly equilibrium now to determine if we're going to see bounce continuation or set a higher low on the daily chart.
Although we have some new levels from after hours, there was minimal volume there so I am not giving those much credibility.
Key levels for hourly eq:
S: 35.85
R: 37.77
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market and the analysis I do on SPY. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and affects every stock you own.
Aurora bulls buy the gap down openQuick updates tonight.
ACB had a big gap down and giant bounce in the first 30 minutes of trading, and remained in an hourly equilibrium for the remainder of the day. Bulls made an attempt at a new high of day in late afternoon but came 4c shy of resistance.
The end of the day saw SPY with big bull move finishing up near the high of the day on the strength of both the tech sector and financial sector, while Canadian MJ was unable to derive any momentum from the this move. That does give some reason for concern with bulls being so close to resistance but unable to break it.
Tomorrow first thing the bulls want to break our two hourly resistances in order to see bounce continuation. Failure to do so a second time would be a red flag.
Key levels:
Support: 7.55
Resistance: 8.16, 8.20
If the bulls find the momentum to break this range and see continuation on the hourly bounce, we would look for a 4hr lower high compared to 11.29. There are numerous hourly resistances on the way up to that level, giving Aurora several more hurdles that Canopy and Aphria don't have to deal with.
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market and the analysis I do on SPY. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and the market has been showing significant weakness over the past four weeks. This correlation affects every stock you own.
Aphria sees the largest bounceQuick updates tonight.
APH saw a 12% bounce from the low of the day today and after the first 30 minutes, gave a whole lot of nothing. Aphria may have enjoyed the largest bounce today, it remains positioned weaker than Canopy heading into tomorrow. We spent most of the day inside an hourly equilibrium that has yet to set a higher low compared to the low of consolidation, where as Canopy has clearly set that higher support level.
The end of the day saw SPY with big bull move finishing up near the high of the day on the strength of both the tech sector and financial sector, while Canadian MJ was unable to derive any momentum from the this move. That does give some reason for concern with bulls being so close to resistance but unable to break it.
Tomorrow first thing the bulls want to break our two hourly resistances in order to see bounce continuation. Failure to do so a second time would be a red flag.
Key levels:
Support: 13.00
Resistance: 13.85, 13.95
If the bulls find the momentum to break this range and see continuation on the hourly bounce, we would look for a 4hr lower high compared to 16.77.
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market and the analysis I do on SPY. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and the market has been showing significant weakness over the past four weeks. This correlation affects every stock you own.
Canopy leads MJ sector bounceQuick updates tonight.
CGC saw a 10% bounce from the low of the day today and after the first 30 minutes, gave a whole lot of nothing. We spent the rest of the day inside an hourly equilibrium that we're waiting on the break of for either bounce continuation or on another leg down to potentially lower lows.
The end of the day saw SPY with big bull move finishing up near the high of the day on the strength of both the tech sector and financial sector, while Canadian MJ was unable to derive any momentum from the this move. That does give some reason for concern with bulls being so close to resistance but unable to break it.
Tomorrow first thing the bulls want to break our two hourly resistances in order to see bounce continuation. Failure to do so a second time would be a red flag.
Key levels:
Support: 33.05
Resistance: 34.47, 34.92
If the bulls find the momentum to break this range and see continuation on the hourly bounce, we would look for a 4hr lower high compared to 40.00. However there is a lack of resistance after 34.92 so could see some nice follow through
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market and the analysis I do on SPY. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and the market has been showing significant weakness over the past four weeks. This correlation affects every stock you own.
Aurora nears daily oversoldACB continued its recent pattern of lower lows, dumping the whole day and closing down over 16% in one of the most stand-out bearish days this sector has seen. There is no doubt in my mind this weakness is in large part to the overall stock market dumping for the past four weeks, so be sure to keep an eye on the correlation to SPY. We've now given back 80% of the run up from August 14th to all time high over the past 10 trading days.
Where we stand, Aurora has a lack of support here. Regular readers know I anticipated a bounce before our key weekly level 7.65, which we broke today by 10 cents. This was very unlikely to happen, which speaks to just how weak this chart is. The daily RSI is approaching oversold, and is the lowest level it's been since August 14th. I'm now anticipating an oversold bounce.
Why do I anticipate a bounce in the very near future?
RSI levels on multiple timeframes are currently at or near historical bounce levels:
Daily - 30
4hr - 21
1hr - 21
If you did not stop out on one of the bear breaks over the past two weeks, now isn't the time you want to sell your position. Instead, you probably want to wait for a bounce to get underway, as we are likely to see at least a couple days of follow-through. Of course, if your mindset is to hold your position for years, then stop checking the price every day or you will drive yourself crazy. In my opinion, the bounce will not start until the CGC bounce starts....which will not start until the S&P bounce starts.
If you are one of the people who have asked me over the past couple months about a good time to buy Aurora, these conditions are ideal for starting to SLOWLY scale into a long term entry you plan to hold for years. Just be sure not to invest all your money at once. Keep in mind we have no more upcoming catalysts for the sector, and the correlation to the S&P500 could mean several months of continued downside for ACB.
I'm looking at the 1hr chart right now for our levels. We remain in a downtrend with clear lower highs and lower lows
Key levels to watch for trend change/continuation
Support: low of day 7.55, 6.67, 6.07
Resistance: 9.38, 9.88, 10.07
While Canopy and Aphria have a lack of resistance once they clear their two levels, Aurora has many more resistance levels to deal with.
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market and the analysis I do on SPY. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and the market has been showing significant weakness over the past four weeks. This correlation affects every stock you own.
Aphria nears daily oversoldAPH followed Canopy Growth's lead breaking its 4hr equilibrium bearish, and shortly later confirmed the daily bear flag, dumping the rest of the day closing down over 17% in one of the most stand-out bearish days this sector has seen. There is no doubt in my mind this weakness is in large part to the overall stock market dumping for the past four weeks, so be sure to keep an eye on the correlation to SPY. We've now given back almost 70% of the run up from August 14th to legalization over the past 10 trading days.
Where we stand, Aphria has a lack of support here. Regular readers know we long ago lost the daily and weekly uptrends. The daily RSI is approaching oversold, and is the lowest level it's been since August 14th. I'm now anticipating an oversold bounce.
Why do I anticipate a bounce in the very near future?
RSI levels on multiple timeframes are currently at or near historical bounce levels:
Daily - 34
4hr - 28
1hr - 23
If you did not stop out on one of the bear breaks over the past two weeks, now isn't the time you want to sell your position. Instead, you probably want to wait for a bounce to get underway, as we are likely to see at least a couple days of follow-through. Of course, if your mindset is to hold your position for years, then stop checking the price every day or you will drive yourself crazy. In my opinion, the bounce will not start until the CGC bounce starts....which will not start until the S&P bounce starts.
If you are one of the people who have asked me over the past couple months about a good time to buy Aphria, these conditions are ideal for starting to SLOWLY scale into a long term entry you plan to hold for years. Just be sure not to invest all your money at once. Keep in mind we have no more upcoming catalysts for the sector, and the correlation to the S&P500 could mean several months of continued downside for APH.
I'm looking at the 4hr chart right now for our levels. We remain in a downtrend with clear lower highs and lower lows
Key levels to watch for trend change/continuation
Support: low of day 12.60, 11.98, 11.68
Resistance: 16.77, 17.33
After 17.33 there is a lack of resistance to 20.69 though I don't anticipate we bounce that hard.
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market and the analysis I do on SPY. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and the market has been showing significant weakness over the past four weeks. This correlation affects every stock you own.
Canopy Growth nears daily oversoldCGC today broke its 4hr equilibrium bearish, and shortly later confirmed the daily bear flag, dumping the rest of the day closing down almost 15% in one of the most stand-out bearish days this sector has seen. There is no doubt in my mind this weakness is in large part to the overall stock market dumping for the past four weeks, so be sure to keep an eye on the correlation to SPY. We've now given back 75% of the run up from August 14th to all time high in the past 10 trading days.
Where we stand, Canopy has a lack of support here. We're closing in on the daily MA200 at 31.32, and have price action supports at 30.20 and 29.05. The gap to fill from before the Constellation investment announcement is down at 26.37. Regular readers know we long ago lost the daily and weekly uptrends. I've been watching this descending wedge pattern for the RSI for weeks at this point, and after a false breakout it has now dumped through the bottom of the wedge, backtested former support as resistance, and dropped to lower lows. The daily RSI is approaching oversold, and is the lowest level it's been since June 6th 2017. I'm now anticipating an oversold bounce.
Why do I anticipate a bounce in the very near future?
RSI levels on multiple timeframes are currently at historical bounce levels:
Daily - 31
4hr - 27
1hr - 22
If you did not stop out on one of the bear breaks over the past two weeks, now isn't the time you want to sell your position. Instead, you probably want to wait for a bounce to get underway, as we are likely to see at least a couple days of follow-through. Of course, if your mindset is to hold your position for years, then stop checking the price every day or you will drive yourself crazy. In my opinion, the bounce will not start until S&P bounce starts.
If you are one of the people who have asked me over the past couple months about a good time to buy Canopy, these conditions are ideal for starting to SLOWLY scale into a long term entry you plan to hold for years. Just be sure not to invest all your money at once. Keep in mind we have no more upcoming catalysts for the sector, and the correlation to the S&P500 could mean several months of continued downside for CGC.
I'm looking at the 4hr chart right now for our levels. We've been in a downtrend for two weeks at this point with lower highs and lower lows
Key levels to watch for trend change/continuation
Support: low of day 32.31, MA200 31.32, 30.20, 29.05
Resistance: 40, 41.06, 42.43
After 42.43 there is a lack of resistance to 48.13
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market and the analysis I do on SPY. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and the market has been showing significant weakness over the past four weeks. This correlation affects every stock you own.
APH in a 4hr wide equilibrium APH is in a similar boat to Canopy right now, stuck inside a 4hr equilibrium. The range here is 18%, over twice as large as the range Canopy finds itself inside. We are seeing the MACD start to curl upwards for the first time in quite a while, and we are patiently waiting for our higher low to be set relative to 14.11.
APH has also bounced off of the golden pocket retrace from the low of its August consolidation to its recent highs. In my opinion, this chart is just waiting (along with the rest of the sector) for Canopy to make a break of it's right range.
Key levels for Monday
Support: 16.77
Resistance: 14.11
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks.
APH well positioned for a sector-wide bull breakAPH is also in a 4hr equilibrium, the break of which will give us clues to either further sell off or to the low of the dump being in.
I'm looking at support of 14.11 and resistance of 17.33. Our lower high may be set at 16.77 but I'm not yet convinced by this.
A break of 14.11 and we're looking down to 13.76. A break of resistance and we have a lack of resistance on the daily up until 20.69. Watch the Middle Bollinger Band on the daily chart as a likely profit target, as price tends to reject the first test of this level. That's currently at 17.69. Update that level each day.
The daily setup here is a bear flag, I need to see a bull break of the equilibrium to negate the bear flag. The bull volume does stand out on Aphria, however the direction CGC breaks will likely dictate how the rest of the sector breaks.
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to SPY is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks with warning signs of further potential weakness potential into next week.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.