CGC equilibrium on watch for MondayHeading into next week I'm still watching CGC in a 4hr equilibrium. Our key support is a double bottom of 37.32 and 37.35. Canopy finished the day with some weakness looking down towards that level after setting a lower high of 40.37, our new key resistance to break.
We can see the 12EMA on the 4hr driving the price down continually since the all time high on Oct 16th. Bulls need to break above 40.37 and close above that 12EMA in order to get this bounce underway, where we would look to set a lower high on the daily timeframe. The strength of this bounce will give us clues on what to expect next.
I'm watching the potential for hidden bearish RSI divergence with the indicator making higher highs and the price making lower highs; however the MACD has started to curl upwards a bit giving a conflicting signal. Further, when turning off extended hours on the 4hr chart, the bull volume does seem greater than the bear volume.
I have pulled a fib on the daily chart from the low of August consolidation to the all time high, and notice that we bounced right off the .65 retracement. That golden pocket range is a high profitability zone to enter into a long position for resumption of an uptrend, and for anybody who has entered position in the past few days based on this indicator, be certain to have a stop loss set for the appropriate level on the bear break of this 4hr eq - if your plan is to exit the trade on a bear break, that is.
I'm still not holding any position in the sector, patiently waiting for this downtrend to change and for much more favourable trading conditions. This equilibrium should break Monday and give us some short term direction. The sector at large will likely following CGC on the direction of its break. Until that break comes, I'm being very patient and waiting to re-enter a position.
Key levels for Monday
Support: 37.32
Resistance: 40.37
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to SPY -1.76% market is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks.
Canadianmj
Aurora the weakest of the big 3ACB is the weakest 4hr setup of the three names I typically follow in the mj sector. We're in a 4hr equilibrium but the bulls are not giving any confidence here, having failed to even set a lower high the way Canopy and Aphria already have. support to hold is 9.14 and resistance is 11.29.
A break of 9.14 support area and we're looking down towards 9 psychological, and then 8.64.
A break of 11.29 resistance and we're looking to set a daily lower high, compared to 14.36. I'd be watching the Middle Bollinger Band on the daily chart as a likely profit target, as price tends to reject the first test of this level. That's currently at 12.43. Update that level each day.
The addition of ACB to the NYSE opens it up to a whole new class of people who can short the stock. I didn't realize that OTC tickers could not be shorted. This could explain for the much greater weakness in this name.
The direction CGC breaks will likely dictate how the rest of the sector breaks. I'll be looking to play the more bullish names on a bull break, and I'll be looking to play the weaker names like ACB on a bear break.
The daily setup here is a bear flag, I need to see a bull break of the equilibrium to negate the bear flag. IF we get a bull break, it would almost certainly not happen tomorrow, but next week instead.
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to SPY is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks with warning signs of further potential weakness potential into next week.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
CGC searching for a new base of supportThe post-legalization sell-off may or may not be over, and I'm watching CGC 4 hour chart for clues. We're in a 4hr equilibrium and the support to hold is 37.32 and resistance is 41.06.
A break of 37.32 and we're looking down towards 36.62 low of the dump and then 30.20.
A break of 41.06 resistance and we're looking to set a daily lower high, compared to the all time high. First resistance is 42.43 and then a lack of resistance because of the aggression of the dump. I would have a target in the area of the daily Middle Bollinger Band, currently at 47.42. Update that level each day.
The MACD is currently curling upward, if we break bullish out of this range I will need to see a more convincing MACD cross to feel confident.
The direction CGC breaks will likely dictate how the rest of the sector breaks.
The daily setup here is a bear flag, and being mindful of this I will only attempt to bottomfish very close to the low of this equilibrium, otherwise I'll wait for the break to negate the bear flag.
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to SPY 1.79% market is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks with warning signs of further potential weakness potential into next week.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
CGC at risk of losing long time weekly uptrendTaking a different approach today, starting with the long term weekly chart and we're at risk of losing the weekly uptrend that's been intact since July 2017. We're looking at must-hold support of 44.90, the loss of which would break the uptrend. This level will be in play next week. If 44.90 breaks our next support is 10% lower at 40.68, and then there's nothing on the weekly chart until 24.46, however I would expect to find support somewhere in the $37 range close to the Constellation bought deal price from August. We also have the weekly MA20 in that range which should strengthen the support in that area. The weekly candle is a bearish reversal candle and a potential volume climax, this is often a signal of a trend reversal.
Losing 44.90 would break the uptrend but it wouldn't immediately put us into a downtrend, we'd have to wait until we find a bottom, bounce, and then set a lower low to initiate a downtrend. Regardless, a break of this level would be significant.
We're also looking at bearish divergence on the weekly chart, where price action has set a higher high relative to January but RSI has set a lower high. The MACD does not show the same divergence.
"So, what happened this past week?"
This is a question a few people have asked me in person and online over the past 24 hours. Let's go back to the daily chart to look at the setup we had going into last week.
I've annotated the levels we were watching last weekend. Bulls needed a break of 51.21 and bears needed a break of 46.42. First thing Monday we got that break with big volume and a close at the high of the day. In almost every idea I've published over the past few weeks I've been reminding people that the sector has run over 100% in just a few weeks, and that was neither normal nor sustainable. Therefore, we were looking for a sell-the-news reaction to legalization. I was expecting that Wednesday and we got that on Tuesday instead, in the form of a gap up open, a volume climax and a bearish reversal candle. Wednesday and Thursday we saw a weak bounce attempt with a potential daily bear flag setup, with the low of Wednesday a must hold level. When we broke below 48.30 we confirmed that bear flag and confirmed Tuesday's bearish reversal candle.
So for clues on direction we zoom into the hourly chart.
We can see since the initial dump on Tuesday, every bounce has been just a lower high on the hourly. Once we stabilized a little bit we had our range between 48.30 support and 52.87 resistance (annotated with white lines). For me this was a no-touch zone because the action inside tightening ranges is choppy and difficult to play. I we watched as we set a lower high, then a higher low, and another low high (annotated with yellow lines). On Friday we had a clear equilibrium bear break, which was a signal for bulls to jump out and a signal for bears to open short positions. Anybody bull acting on this signal saved themselves over 6% of downside, and any bear acting on this signal had a nice 6% profit on the subsequent dump on Friday.
We bottomed out after 2pm on Friday after touching hourly oversold but the bounce so far is weak and is a potential hourly bear flag setup. That will confirm if we break the low of Friday 45.43. I do anticipate that level to be tested first thing Monday, we can see the bull volume on the bounce is much weaker compared to the bear volume on the dump.
CGC is the sector leader so if it shows continued weakness Monday and Tuesday you can anticipate weakness in other names as well.
If you're the type of person looking years out and holding, you don't care much about the last half of this post but you are very interested in the weekly chart above. If that level breaks you have an opportunity to stop out and look to reload, for example, 10% more shares for 10% cheaper with the same amount of capital. That's one more way you can compound your gains on these positions even when we see consolidation on the longer term charts.
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to SPY market is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks with warning signs of further potential weakness potential into next week.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
APH searching higher low in daily equilibriumTaking a different approach today, starting with the long term weekly chart. APH looks more and more toppy with each passing week with bear volume standing out and upper wicks of profit taking. Bulls were barely able to break the high of last week. Our weekly lower high is now set at 20.96 and the must hold level to maintain the weekly uptrend is 15.76 doublebottom. A break of that level would put us into a weekly downtrend but we are nowhere near at risk of that right now. We do have a longer term trendline crossing our price level just above our weekly support level next week; something to watch if we do fade down to test that low.
"So, what happened this past week?"
This is a question a few people have asked me in person and online over the past 24 hours. Let's go back to the daily chart to look at the setup we had going into last week.
I've annotated the levels we were watching last weekend. Monday we saw APH with the weaker move out of the names I follow. In almost every idea I've published over the past few weeks I've been reminding people that the sector has run over 100% in just a few weeks, and that was neither normal nor sustainable. Therefore, we were looking for a sell-the-news reaction to legalization. I was expecting that Wednesday and we got that on Tuesday instead, in the form of a gap up open, a volume climax and a bearish reversal candle. The low of Wednesday is our daily key level. APH has not yet lost that level, making it a stronger chart than Canopy which broke that level on Friday.
The APH daily chart confirmed the bearish reversal candle from Thursday and rejected from our daily RSI resistance line. The MACD is still weak and the bear volume stands out when compared to the bull volume. I am anticipating a higher low above 16.77 but in the current setup if that level breaks, we would initiate a daily downtrend with a daily lower high and lower low. We have the daily MA50 lining up with that support level; update that line daily. On any bounce I would look for a lower high compared to 20.69. Let's zoom in for more detail.
Looking into the hourly chart we see an hourly bear flag setup. Friday we bottomed out when CGC hit hourly oversold and the sector saw very weak bounces on low volume when compared to the bear volume on the dump. Confirming that bear flag by breaking 17.78 means the bulls have not yet found their 4hr higher low and we will continue to look down towards 16.77 support.
If you're the type of person looking years out and holding, you don't care much about the last half of this post but you are very interested in the weekly chart above. While the weekly trend on APH is not yet at risk Canopy will be testing that level on Monday. This signal from the sector leader gives you an opportunity to stop out and look to reload, for example, 10% more shares for 10% cheaper with the same amount of capital. That's one more way you can compound your gains on these positions even when we see consolidation on the longer term charts.
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to SPY market is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks with warning signs of further potential weakness potential into next week.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
Watch ACB 4hr for short term momentumTaking a different approach today, starting with the long term weekly chart. ACB has a bearish reversal candle on the weekly chart and a potential volume climax. The weekly trend is not at risk of being lost anytime soon because of how hard we have run up. Our weekly support currently is at 7.65 and now that we've lost the daily uptrend we are in search of a new weekly support level. We have support with weekly MA20 and MA50 in the low $9 range. Update these levels weekly.
"So, what happened this past week?"
This is a question a few people have asked me in person and online over the past 24 hours. Let's go back to the daily chart to look at the setup we had going into last week.
Monday we saw continuation of the daily breakout from the previous Friday and finished strong at the high of the day. In almost every idea I've published over the past few weeks I've been reminding people that the sector has run over 100% in just a few weeks, and that was neither normal nor sustainable. Therefore, we were looking for a sell-the-news reaction to legalization. I was expecting that Wednesday and we got that on Tuesday instead, in the form of a gap up open, a volume climax and a bearish reversal candle. Wednesday and Thursday we saw a weak bounce attempt with a potential daily bear flag setup, with the low of Wednesday a must hold level. ACB has not yet lost that level, making it a stronger chart than Canopy which broke that level on Friday and confirmed the daily bear flag.
ACB currently sits within a daily range between 11.91 support and 14.36 resistance. On Friday we saw the bulls make an attempt at that resistance but fell short and dumped for the rest of the day, finishing close to the low of the day on increasing bear volume and looking to start with further weakness into next week. ACB has wicked below the daily MA20 but has yet to close below that level. The daily chart has broken below an RSI support line and the MACD is initiating the strongest bear move it's made since back in July. As I've mentioned we've already lost the daily uptrend; losing 11.91 support would initiate a daily downtrend with a lower high and a lower low on the daily chart.
The $9-10 range has good support with the MA50, MA100 and MA200 all overlapping in this range. Update these levels daily. With weekly and daily indicators all lining up, I would expect the bulls to defend this level on the longer term timeframe.
The 4hr chart shows the clearest details in my opinion.
Bulls are trying to hold 12.69 as the higher low in the 4hr equilibrium but we're not yet confident that our higher low is set. This is a tightening range that could continue for several days before we see a clear break of this pattern. I have no real interest in playing within this pattern because the action is generally choppy, and I know the break of these tightening ranges will carry significant momentum and followthrough for me to play either as a bull or a bear. Let's zoom in for more detail better explain why I anticipate further downside.
Looking into the hourly chart we see exactly why we have a setup for further weakness with an hourly bear flag. Friday we bottomed out when CGC hit hourly oversold and the sector saw very weak bounces on low volume when compared to the bear volume on the dump. Confirming that bear flag by breaking 12.69 means the bulls have not yet found their 4hr higher low and we will continue to look down towards 11.91 support. For anybody interested in playing within this range, the closer we get to 11.91 the better your Risk:Reward becomes as you have an entry much closer to your stop loss level.
If you're the type of person looking years out and holding, you don't care much about the last half of this post but you are very interested in the weekly chart above. While the weekly trend on ACB is not yet at risk Canopy will be testing that level on Monday. This signal from the sector leader gives you an opportunity to stop out and look to reload, for example, 10% more shares for 10% cheaper with the same amount of capital. That's one more way you can compound your gains on these positions even when we see consolidation on the longer term charts.
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to SPY market is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks with warning signs of further potential weakness potential into next week.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
CGC sells the news into legalizationCGC saw a big gap up and huge volatility in the opening minute with a range of more than $1, before an aggressive dump spanning 20 minutes and traders took profit, knocking the stock down 12% immediately. CGC bounced off the low of the day pennies above that key resistance we broke Monday for the equilibrium bullbreak - 51.21 former resistance now support, with the low of the day just above at 51.26.
The RSI also backtested the upper resistance of the wedge pattern it broke out of, also as support. The MACD on the daily signals a very weak move from the daily breakout and the volume looks like a volume climax - often a signal of a trend reversal.
We are very confident that on this pullback we will retain the daily uptrend and set a higher low above 46.52. Tomorrow I'll be watching for support at the low of today and at the daily Middle Bollinger Band.
We are seeing weakness after hours having broken the low of consolidation after the bounce, which would typically have us looking to open with weakness the following day. The top of the afternoon bounce rejected from the 15min Upper Bollinger Band and immediately lost the Middle Bollinger Band, rejecting the price for the rest of the day and into after hours. We are downtrending on the 15min currently, looking for a new base of support.
Key support to hold is low of the day 51.26. Key resistance to break to tell us our daily higher low is in will be 55.44. On any continued bull push I do expect a lower high relative to our new all time high 59.25.
We knew the rug was going to be pulled out at any moment, and I was caught a little off guard that it happened first thing this morning but luckily took profit on all my swings on the big gap up open. I do hope everyone heeded last night's advice to set your stop loss orders.
Big institutions have been loading large positions in Canopy with CIBC and Anonymous combined purchasing roughly $500 Million worth of shares in the past month. Be aware these whales can start unloading massive positions at any time without notice.
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ACB sells the news into legalizationACB saw a big gap up and a big push in the first few minutes, followed by an aggressive dump spanning 20 minutes as traders took profit, knocking the stock down an immediate 16%. ACB bounced just five cents above former resistance 13.60 - former resistance now support.
The RSI also rejected from a downtrend line spanning the last few weeks. The MACD on the daily signals a very weak move from the daily breakout and the volume today looks like a volume climax - often a signal of a trend reversal.
We are very confident that on this pullback we will retain the daily uptrend and set a higher low above 12.50. Tomorrow I'll be watching for support at the low of today and at the daily EMA8.
Key support to hold is low of the day 13.65. Key resistance to break to tell us our daily higher low is in will be 14.96. On any continued bull push I do expect a lower high relative to our new all time high 16.24
We knew the rug was going to be pulled out at any moment, and I was caught a little off guard that it happened first thing this morning but luckily took profit on all my swings on the big gap up open. I do hope everyone heeded last night's advice to set your stop loss orders.
Big institutions have been loading large positions in Canopy with CIBC and Anonymous combined purchasing roughly $500 Million worth of shares in the past month. Be aware these whales can start unloading massive positions at any time without notice.
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APH is a clear laggard, though chart remains bullishAPH saw a higher open this morning and broke the daily inside bar bullish but remains within its hourly equilibrium. The daily bull flag setup remains as the range gets tighter and tighter. MACD is curling up and we want to see a clearer spike tomorrow and increasing volume.
Bulls are trying to hold 19.79 as an hourly support but we're far from convinced that's our higher low. Next level is 19.62 and 19.32. It would be a red flag to break those levels, but 19.00 is must hold to remain within this hourly equilibrium.
Resistances is then 20.18 to break the equilibrium bullish. Bulls will then look up to test our recent highs 20.50, 20.70, and 21.58.
APH is a clear laggard to CGC and ACB that are at all time highs in full on breakout mode. I'll be watching to see if some profits from those names start to cycle into APH to give an extended run here.
Keep walking your stop losses up. We're in a euphoric bull run and we want to protect our profits from any sudden sell-off.
Also keep in mind the correlation to the overall market. SPY has its second daily inside bar to watch the range of tomorrow, and while a bearish end of day didn't affect the mj sector today, we have seen countless times where it has.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
ACB double tops at all time high, needs follow-thru tomorrowACB saw a gap-up and run open this morning on big bull volume, continuing the daily breakout from Friday and finishing the day up 10%. ACB hit a new all time high today by two pennies but that's effectively a doubletop at 15.22 so the bulls are going to need more follow through tomorrow. That shouldn't be an issue, with a close up near the high of the day.We're riding well above the daily Upper Bollinger Band as support.
We see daily RSI has broke out of its channel and is approaching recent highs, and the MACD has started to curl up. We're looking for a higher MACD spike tomorrow.
When stocks are at all time highs there is a lack of resistance, so we look for psychological round numbers. $15.50, 16, 16.50 etc. $20, should we get there, will especially be tricky.
Our key support is 14.63 on the hourly. We also have a little support at 14.79, and 15 psychological.
Keep walking your stop losses up. We're in a euphoric bull run and we want to protect our profits from any sudden sell-off.
Also keep in mind the correlation to the overall market. SPY has its second daily inside bar to watch the range of tomorrow, and while a bearish end of day didn't affect the mj sector today, we have seen countless times where it has.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
WEED looking for blue sky breakout tomorrow!WEED had a gap-up and run open this morning on massive volume, breaking our daily equilibrium bullish and finishing the day up 13%. WEED rejected from all time high today although the American ticker certainly smashed that level, but we still closed pennies off the high of the day. After hours trading saw CGC hit as high as 58.44. We're riding well above the daily Upper Bollinger Band as support.
We also see the hidden bullish divergence on the RSI and MACD having finally played out. RSI has broke out of its descending wedge pattern, and the MACD has started to curl up. We're looking for a higher MACD spike tomorrow.
When stocks are at all time highs there is a lack of resistance, so we look for psychological round numbers. $75, $76, $77, etc. $80 especially should be tricky. We also look at the American tickers to correlate the highs of pre and after market with the Canadian levels. For CGC the high of after hours trading is 58.44.
Our key support is 70.16 on the hourly.
Keep walking your stop losses up. We're in a euphoric bull run and we want to protect our profits from any sudden sell-off.
Also keep in mind the correlation to the overall market. SPY has its second daily inside bar to watch the range of tomorrow, and while a bearish end of day didn't affect the mj sector today, we have seen countless times where it has.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
Canopy Growth in blue sky breakout!CGC had a gap-up and run open this morning on massive volume, breaking our daily equilibrium bullish and finishing the day up 14%. CGC set a new all time high today, easily busting through the old level and closed at 56.89, just pennies below the high of the day. After hours trading saw Canopy hit as high as 58.44. We're riding well above the daily Upper Bollinger Band as support.
We also see the hidden bullish divergence on the RSI and MACD having finally played out. RSI has broke out of its descending wedge pattern, and the MACD has started to curl up. We're looking for a higher MACD spike tomorrow.
When stocks are at all time highs there is a lack of resistance, so we look for psychological round numbers. $57, $58, $59, $60 especially should be tricky. We also look for the highs of pre and after market - like I said, that's 58.44.
Our key support is 54.05 on the hourly. From after hours we also have 57.27.
Keep walking your stop losses up. We're in a euphoric bull run and we want to protect our profits from any sudden sell-off.
Also keep in mind the correlation to the overall market. SPY has its second daily inside bar to watch the range of tomorrow, and while a bearish end of day didn't affect the mj sector today, we have seen countless times where it has.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
Expecting TGOD volatility FridayTGOD daily has now pulled back almost 50% from its recent all time high last month and has been very weak in a sector that's holding up reasonably well. I can only speculate as I am not a fundamentals guy but I attribute this to two things. First, the uncertain future of the greenhouse its constructing in Ancaster, and second the decision Aurura Cannabis faces tomorrow on whether or not to increase their investment.
I would expect the stock to react positively to an increased investment, and negatively to a decision not to increase. Either way tomorrow we should see some volatility.
Daily and 4hr RSI is currently right around historical bounce levels but the hourly is only 28, meaning we could easily see another let to the downside before a bounce occurs.
I see support close by at 5.25 and a band of support between 4.88 - 4.97.
For anybody looking at any stock keep an eye on the market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the overrall market is real and the market saw an all-out dump today, having now given back over 3 months of gains in the past week.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
APH holding a daily bullflag into legalization weekAfter a huge move on reports of an investment by a tobacco company, APH is trading in a 4hr equilibrium with multiple daily inside bars. This is one of my favourite setups. As expected we have decreasing volume on this consolidation.
The range to watch is today's range; Break 19.00 bearish or break 20.00 bullish.
Note that 19.00 would not break the equilibrium bearish because we haven't set a convincing higher low above 18.61. For now, that remains our key level
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
ACB the first in the sector to breakoutYesterday I pointed out that ACB needed to regain the hourly uptrend as a sign for a continued bull move. Anybody who acted on that signal had a very profitable day today! The key was 12.98 and if you bought that you would be up 6% already! ACB has been the most bullish chart for a couple weeks, and today saw that play out with a key break.
The key daily break today was the break of 13.60, which we saw on increasing bull volume today. I am concerned about two things, however. First, the MACD on this move up is very weak. Second, last time we broke resistance in the mid 13-range we saw no follow-through. Bulls will have to show us conviction of this break Monday on big bull volume in order to negate a potential ascending wedge pattern, as well as to give some confidence to this struggling MACD.
Our new must hold support to keep the bulls in charge is 13.24, and anything above this would be a higher low.
After today we only have three resistances left: 13.75, 14.10, and our all time high 15.20. As of close, we're only 11% away from that all time high.
CGC and APH also have very nice daily setups heading into next week; let's see if this ACB breakout will foreshadow what those names will do on Monday.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
WEED - Only two levels matterIn the past few ideas I've been pointing viewers to the intraday charts on WEED and I'm no longer doing that. The price action remains so choppy within this range I've become convinced there's no use for it for the pattern. We now have two green days in a row, but because Oct 11th had a much lower open, we still don't have two "real" green days in a row - where the close is higher than the previous day. Our high of day also rejected from the uptrend line we lost on Wednesday.
We have a descending wedge pattern on our RSI, showing hidden bullish divergence. We see the same type of divergence on the MACD as well.
Part of the unclarity lies in that we don't have a clear level of resistance, but rather we have bands of resistance, so I default to using the outermost extremities of the pattern.
Support: 60.14
Resistance: 66.19
These are the only numbers that matter to me for CGC. From Friday's close we're only 14% away from all time high; If we break bullish out of our current equilibrium we will test that level, so I'm more than happy to sit back and wait for the clear direction.
That said, bottom-fishing bear breaks of $61 have been profitable over the past week but I would keep a very tight stop on any such attempt.
It's also worth noting that I do not chart or play WEED. I chart CGC only - it has significantly more dollar volume so I believe the signals on that chart are more important; but both are worth keeping an eye on - I've seen instances where CGC struggled at a seemingly random price, and it was because WEED was up against a psychological resistance.
With that in mind, I see WEED has broke bullish out of the RSI descending wedge but CGC has yet to do so. I also note this RSI pattern on WEED is actually more of a parallel channel.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
HEXO forming a daily equilibrium, just below all time highHEXO is forming a daily equilibrium with a tightening range just under its all time high. Our current lower high appears to be set at 8.80 and the bulls are now looking to set a higher low above 7.71, currently a double bottom. I'm a big fan of this setup so close to our all time high because of the lack of overhead resistance at this level.
We've now spent 15 trading days trading within the entire range of September 19th.
For anybody looking at any stock keep an eye on the market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the overrall market is real and the market saw an all-out dump today, having now given back over 3 months of gains in the past week.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
APH hourly equilibrium is early signal for daily bull flagAPH gave us a daily inside bar today as one could expect after such a volatile day yesterday. Our pattern is clearest on the 1hr chart as we see a tightening equilibrium. We have our lower high at 20.50 and the bulls are now searching for a higher low; a new base of support above 18.60. The daily chart is currently in a bull flag setup and to confirm the bulls will need to break this equilibrium and the high of yesterday 20.70 on increasing volume.
I might consider bottomfishing a lower high above 18.60 but weakness in the overall market may have me patient instead, and waiting on the sidelines for a break of this tightening hourly pattern.
For anybody looking at any stock keep an eye on the market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the overrall market is real and the market saw an all-out dump today, having now given back over 3 months of gains in the past week.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
ACB must change the hourly trendACB looked to be trying to print a daily bull flag but the pullback today and close near the low is more than enough to negate that in my mind. I find the clearest picture on the 1h4 chart where we have a clear downtrend of lower highs and lower lows.
Our lower high of resistance is the high of the afternoon bounce 12.90 and high of the day 12.94 but really I'm not interested until the price can break above $13.00 psychological reisistance. Key level on the hourly chart for the bulls to hold as step one in taking back control is 12.50. If we lose that level, I'll remain patient waiting for a new support to be found and watch the top of the subsequent move to see our new resistance level.
For the record, ACB has now given back 2/3 of the move subsequent to them filing their uplisting documents with the SEC.
For anybody looking at any stock keep an eye on the market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the overrall market is real and the market saw an all-out dump today, having now given back over 3 months of gains in the past week.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
WEED clearest on the 4hrWEED has an inside bar on the daily and the daily chart is a little clearer here than it is for CGC but I still prefer the 4hr chart for the big picture. Our key support is 60.55 and key resistance is 64.99.
I'm very impressed how well the entire mj sector is holding up in the face of market weakness. That said...
For anybody looking at any stock keep an eye on the market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the overrall market is real and the market saw an all-out dump today, having now given back over 3 months of gains in the past week.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
CGC greatest clarity on the 4hr chartCGC looks to have set its lower high in our 4ht equilibrium today at 48.34 but we haven't yet pulled back enough to make us confident. For me, the key resistance is still 49.88. Support in our pattern is 45.01.
I find the clearest picture here on the 4hr chart, as smaller timeframes are choppy and the daily chart is very unclear. I'm very impressed how well the entire mj sector is holding up in the face of market weakness. That said...
For anybody looking at any stock keep an eye on the market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the overrall market is real and the market saw an all-out dump today, having now given back over 3 months of gains in the past week.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
CGC is very tightCGC's short term direction will be decided on the ongoing equilibrium on its 4hr chart. The key levels are 46.63 support to 50.99 resistance. Our lower high may be 49.88 if looking at the details of the 1hr chart.
Expect choppy action in this right range. 46.42 is the must hold level to maintain the daily uptrend the bulls just took back.
For anybody looking at any stock keep an eye on the market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the overrall market is real and the market saw an all-out dump today, having now given back over 3 months of gains in the past week.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
ACB moves on APH rumoursACB may have found it's new base of support at 12.75 when it broke the lower high pattern on a move that topped out at 13.45. We're looking at the hourly chart here as it offers the most clarity for me. I'm anticipating the bulls to form a higher low above 12.75 and will be watching the pullback for size and volume to consider the liklihood of forming an hourly equilibrium or seeing continuation.
Key range: 12.75 - 13.45
Note that today's move seems entirely related to APH run on news today, news that of course does not affect Aurora in the slightest. I'm not sure how that weighs into what happens next so we will just patiently said for our next long or short signal.
For anybody looking at any stock keep an eye on the market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the overrall market is real and the market saw an all-out dump today, having now given back over 3 months of gains in the past week.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
