GBPNZD SHORT Market structure bearish on HTFs DH
Entry at both Daily and Weekly AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection At AOi
Previous Daily Structure Point
Around Psychological Level 2.26500
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 6
Entry 95%
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: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
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Candlestick Analysis
Global ETF Nears Potential BreakoutRecent weeks have seen a dramatic shift toward global stocks as U.S. markets decline. Now traders may be looking for a breakout in a key ETF tracking the group.
The iShares MSCI EAFE fund, which focuses on developed markets like Europe and Japan, had a quick advance from mid-January through early March. There are at least four takeaways from the rally.
First, it resulted in historic outperformance against the S&P 500. (This is highlighted by relative strength in the lower study with a 21-day period.) The current reading of 13.8 percent points compares with July 2002, when EFA began a five-year run of outpacing SPX. (The only two other times that relative strength was higher was late 2008 and March 2020, abnormal moments of extreme volatility.)
Second, the recent rally pulled the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) toward a potential “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA.
Third, a pullback on February 28 was quickly bought. That potentially established support above the December high of $80.63. (See yellow arrows.)
Fourth, EFA has remained well above a 50 percent retracement of the advance. That may confirm bulls are still in control.
Next, the fund just completed an inside week. That tightness may reflect a lack of selling pressure.
Finally, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has stayed above the 21-day EMA.
Standardized Performances for the ETF mentioned above:
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA)
1-year: +5.61%
5-years: +31.07%
10-year: +25.31%
(As of February 28, 2025)
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Nifty holding above Hourly Mother line a good signalNifty holding above 50 Hours EMA or Mother line in the hourly chart is a good signal for the market if it holds above 22464 then there is a chance of further recovery. The supports for Nifty remain at 22464 (strong Mother line support), 22368 (Another strong trend line support), 22311 and 22205. If the support at 22205 is broken Nifty can go in a jiffy to 21976 or below. In case we get a closing above 22591 Nifty will become stronger and can jump to 22678 or 22722 levels. 22722 is a strong 200 Hours EMA or Father line resistance. A closing above 22722 can take us to next historical resistance levels of 22813, 22921, 23044, 23147 and 23249 levels. Closing above 23249 has potential to bring Bulls back out of ICU and Take Nifty further up.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
XAU/USD 17 March 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 16 March 2025.
Previous analysis and bias was not met as price did not target weak internal low.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to either trade down to discount of 50% internal EQ, or Daily/H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a bearish CHoCH confirming internal range, however, price has not in any way pulled back significantly enough to classify current internal high as an iBOS, should price print higher than current internal high.
Remainder of analysis and bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 13 March 2025
Analysis and bias has not been met, largely due macroeconomic events, particularly the Trump trade tariff war, which is causing uncertainty within the markets which is supporting Gold price.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS.
Within the structure following the iBOS, price has printed a several bearish CHoCH's with very minimal pullbacks before continuing bullish.
In order not to distort internal structure range I will apply discretion and not classify bearish CHoCH without considerable pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Await for price to print Bearish CHoCH which is supported by a pullback relative to recent price action.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
UsdJpy bullish continuation I was patiently waiting for price at 147.842 last week but it didn't come to my point of interest.
Nothing spoil, I'll watch how price reacts at 148.033, that's my assumed poi for the bullish continuation. If price didn't respect that zone then I'll be expecting price at 147.842
My draw on Liquidity 🧲 is the current higher high 149.193.
Kindly boost if you find this insightful 🫴
GOLD (#XAUUSD): One More ConsolidationAfter reaching a new high of $3000, a psychological level, the Gold price started to consolidate within a horizontal channel on the 4-hour chart.
To buy Gold this week, it is advisable to wait for a breakout above the channel's resistance, which could lead to a movement towards at least 3020.
On the other hand, a bearish breakout below the channel's support could trigger a correctional movement down to around 2964.
It is recommended to wait for a breakout to confirm the direction of the next move.
EURAUD: Bearish Correction Continues📉EURAUD has broken through and closed below an important horizontal support level during the day.
The highlighted blue section also serves as the neckline for an inverted cup & handle pattern.
This violation suggests that there may be further decreases in price.
The next support level to watch for is at 1.7110.
EUR/AUD: Signs of Exhaustion as Bears Watch 1.7184EUR/AUD looks heavy and vulnerable to downside following Friday’s bearish engulfing candle, leaving the price teetering just above 1.7184—the blow-off top high from August last year.
A break below 1.7184 could encourage bears off the sidelines, creating a setup where shorts may be established beneath the level with stops above for protection. EUR/AUD has tended to stall around big figures during its recent rally, putting 1.7100 and 1.7000 on the radar as initial downside targets. Beyond that, 1.6800 looms, having capped gains in late 2024 and early 2025.
RSI (14) is trending lower but remains overbought, suggesting bullish momentum may be starting to wane. MACD has yet to confirm a bearish signal, though it is curling towards the signal line.
On the fundamental side, the euro has priced in a lot of good news from recent fiscal and geopolitical developments, raising the bar for further upside. Meanwhile, the Aussie remains suppressed by elevated volatility and concerns over China’s growth trajectory amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, limiting its ability to capitalise on recent U.S. dollar weakness.
However, if those concerns ease, the Aussie could outperform. That puts today’s policy details from China’s government on boosting consumption in focus. While both the euro and Aussie are heavily tied to China’s economic health, AUD—along with other Asian currencies—stands to benefit more from an improvement in sentiment.
EURUSD H1 Timeframe to look at you carefullyFOREXCOM:EURUSD Charts using candles. Price fluctuations are displayed within a specific time frame. This analysis covers a 1-hour time frame
Support and Resistance Zones: These are marked areas where the price is likely to find support (bounce up) or resistance (down).
Key levels:
Strong Support Zone : 1.06800
Support Zone 2: 1.07670
New Support Zone 3: 1.08350
Resistance Zone: 1.09450, Level not strong
Support level all good
The price has previously bounced off this level, suggesting buying interest.
AUDCHF: Strong Bullish Continuation 🇦🇺🇨🇭
It looks to me that AUDCHF will continue rising.
A confirmed breakout of a neckline of a cup & handle pattern
on a 4H time frame provides a strong bullish signal.
The price will likely reach at least 0.5627 level soon.
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Potential longs on USDJPYUSDJPY has surged higher following the release of lower-than-expected CPI and PPI data over the past two days. The pair is currently heading into a resistance zone at the 149.2 level. If it manages to close above that level, then it could retest 150 and then eventually to 151.2.
For shorts, I would not be thinking about shorting it at the moment and would only consider it if it manages to close below 148.2 and fails to break above it.
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Silver LongLooking for this long idea on silver. ONLY if breaks and closes above 33.97. If it does not close above that level, then it could just keep moving in the range that i have marked with two grey rectangle boxes. Alternate idea is, if it retraces back to the range, then look for longs from around the 33.6 levels.
EURUSD - How Long Will The Bullish Gravy Train Last?German Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz announced he had secured the crucial backing of the Greens for a massive increase in state borrowing.
The deal will likely be approved by the outgoing parliament next week. It includes a 500 billion euro ($544.30 billion) fund for infrastructure and sweeping changes to borrowing rules.
Due to this, the dollar weakened against the euro but rose against the Swiss franc and the yen, underpinned by the likelihood the U.S. government will avert a shutdown over the weekend.
Will this weeks high impact events lead to the weakening of EURUSD?
Dow Jones - Tariff's Causing HUGE Disruption!Stocks rallied Friday, clawing back some of the steep losses seen over the week, as investors got a reprieve from tariff-related headlines.
But it does not mean that the bearish onslaught has ended. 41,790 - 40,347, 3-month fair value gap is still in play and although I am going into next week neutral, I would like to see a bullish draw up to 41790.
Nasdaq (March Contract) - Massive Meltdown!Stocks have had a rough week as uncertainty over President Donald Trump's tariff shifts whipsawed markets and overshadowed otherwise encouraging signals about the economy.
With 4 continuous weeks of bearish price action, it does not look like there is a end in sight. Sellside liquidity @ 20248.75 has not been used as a form of resistance, indicating weakness in the markets.
Going forward, my bias is neutral going into Sundays opening price
S&P 500 (March Contract) - Stock Market Loses $5 Trillion!The S&P 500′s rapid 10% decline from a record high into correction territory has wiped out trillions of dollars in market value.
The market value of the S&P 500 at its Feb. 19 peak was $52.06 trillion, according to FactSet. Thursday’s decline put the index’s market value down to $46.78 trillion.
That makes for a total loss of about $5.28 trillion in about three weeks.
Will the rate announcements cause S&P 500 to sink lower into the abyss??
Reference: www.cnbc.com
GOLD (XAUUSD): Correctional Movement Ahead?
After a test of 3000 psychological level, Gold looks overbought.
Analysing a 4H time frame, we can spot a completed head & shoulders pattern.
A bearish movement will be confirmed with a breakout of its horizontal neckline.
If a 4H candle closes below 2978, we can expect a retracement much lower
at least to 2955.
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