ASX Bulls Sniff Record HighsASX 200 SPI futures have broken above the 8400 level and May 16 high of 8424, opening the door to a bullish setup—provided the price holds these levels into the close.
Longs could be considered above 8424 with a stop below 8400 for protection, targeting a retest of the record high at 8581. While momentum indicators are nearing overbought territory, they continue to trend higher, keeping the bullish bias intact.
A close below 8400 would invalidate the setup.
Fundamentally, the underlying index remains expensive across several valuation metrics—especially the banking sector, where multiples are hard to justify. But that hasn't stopped the rally so far. Optimism following the RBA’s dovish shift in May is helping fuel the latest breakout.
Good luck!
DS
Candlestick Analysis
EURUSD - Could the Low Be in Place?EURUSD has recently been struggling for upside momentum as a reduction in trade tensions have boosted the dollar, and hopes for another ECB rate cut in June have weighed on the Euro.
This has seen a selloff in the world’s biggest FX pair from its 2025 highs at 1.1573 posted on April 21st, to a low of 1.1065 on May 12th, as US and China trade representatives outlined details of a significant reduction in tariffs on imports from each country, before eventually closing on Friday slightly higher at 1.1150.
Roll forward to the start of this new trading week and a downgrade to US government debt by rating agency Moody’s (last Friday) has seen a brief resurgence of the sell US assets trade, and while US stock indices recovered their initial losses into the close yesterday evening, the dollar has remained under pressure with EURUSD trading against a potential important technical level (more on this in the technical update below).
This leads us to ask the question, was the low seen on May 12th at 1.1065 a final capitulation of weak longs, and could a new up trend be developing again?
While further news flow on the topic of US government debt, including updates on progress through Congress of a Republican tax cut and spending bill, may continue to dominate the direction of EURUSD across the rest of the week, sentiment could also be impacted by Thursday's release of the May forward looking PMI surveys from the Eurozone (0900 BST) and US (1445 BST), which will provide traders with an insight into the current health of these two major economies.
The current technical outlook may also be important.
Technical Update: Focus on Fibonacci Retracements
Interestingly, the sell-off into the May 12th low at 1.1065 did approach what might have been classed as a support level at 1.1056, marked by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March 27th to April 21st price strength.
As you can see from the chart below, it is the test of this price level that looks to have prompted the latest EURUSD recovery.
Resistance Focus:
Traders may well now be focusing on 1.1263, which is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April 21st to May 12th 2025 price weakness, a level that was successful in holding, on a closing basis, yesterday’s attempt to push to higher price levels.
That said, successful closing breaks above 1.1263 while no guarantee of further price strength, might leave some traders looking for an extension of the current upside move, with the next resistance potentially standing at 1.1381, which is the higher 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Support Focus: What if 1.1263 Caps Further Gains?
It is equally possible the 1.1263 Fibonacci retracement resistance can continue to hold, even turn price activity lower once more.
With this in mind, we should perhaps monitor support at 1.1171, which is equal to half the latest recovery move. Closing breaks below this level might then lead to a more extended phase of price weakness towards the 1.1056 retracement support, possibly further if this in turn were to give way.
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Bitcoin (BTC) Market Update – May 19, 2025📅 Bitcoin (BTC) Market Update – May 19, 2025
BTC is trading at $105,488 with a slight +0.0115% 24h uptick.
📊 Technical Snapshot:
• Price Range: $102,381 – $106,540 (Moderate volatility)
• Support: GETTEX:97K – $98.5K | Resistance: $110K – $115K
• Trend: Consolidation Phase – Awaiting breakout
🔗 On-Chain Highlights:
• 87% of supply in profit = Potential for sell pressure
• Accumulation increasing across wallet cohorts
• Improved investor sentiment
🧭 Fundamentals to Watch:
• Sharpe Ratio: 1.72 – High risk-adjusted returns
• ETF inflows rising = Institutional demand
• Macro Index flashing Buy signal
📈 BTC Price Outlook:
• Short-Term: $100K – $110K
• Mid-Term: $110K – $129K
• Long-Term: $174K – $462K 🚀
✅ Summary:
Bitcoin remains range-bound but shows strength in accumulation and fundamentals. Keep an eye on $110K resistance for a possible breakout.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoAnalysis #SorooshX
DXY demonstrates the USD is in troubleThis week's selloff has a chance of validating last week's Shooting Star candle.
It's only Tuesday, so there's still much time left, but if the DXY does fall here, the next stop is 97.50, and then 94.75.
I don't consider 97.50 a strong level, so somewhere near 95 is more likely.
Thursday's PMI numbers could push the USD in either direction. The last print was 50.6, and anything below 50 is considered a contraction, so little room for downside is available.
This report will be more carefully watched I believe than usual.
Gold price suddenly rises, how to get out of the trap at night🗞News side:
1. Humanitarian crisis in Gaza Strip, many civilians injured. I hope that world peace is all right
2. The call between the Russian and Ukrainian leaders is still ongoing
📈Technical aspects:
After gold fell back after touching 3250, it rose again and has broken through to around 3270. This rapid rise was unexpected. Although the 1H moving average turned upward, the gold price is currently consolidating at a high level. It is not suitable for us to enter the market at this time. We should remain on the sidelines and pay attention to the pressure at 3290 above. The short-term support below needs to pay attention to 3250-2540.
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
GOLD (XAUUSD): 2 Strong Bullish Patterns
As I warned you earlier, Gold is resuming a growth.
After completing a bullish accumulation, the price
is currently breaking both a neckline of an ascending triangle
and an inverted head and shoulders formation on a 4H.
I think that the price will rise more and reach 3320 resistance soon.
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Gold rebound height is limited, short goldTechnical aspects:
Gold has failed to make a major breakthrough in the recent rebound process, and the rebound height has been limited to a smaller and smaller level. Overall, gold is now in a state of shock and short position; as the center of gravity of gold shifts downward, the current short-term resistance is in the 3220-3230 area; and gold has tested downward many times recently, which makes it easier for gold to fall below 3200. Once gold falls below 3200 again, it is very likely to extend to 3190, or even around 3160.
Trading strategy:
Consider starting to short gold in batches in the 3220-3230 area, TP: 3205-3195
Gold price fluctuates, 3200 becomes a key watershed🗞News side:
1. Yesterday, Russia and Ukraine had a positive development on the issue of war and peace
2. The situation in Israel has become more serious
3. The United States and the European Union have further negotiations on tariffs
📈Technical aspects:
At present, gold is in a volatile situation in the short term. From a technical point of view, the monthly chart of gold shows an upward trend, and the long-term trend is neutral to bullish; the weekly chart is in a high-level stagflation situation, and the medium-term trend is expected to be a stagflation correction; the daily MACD top divergence, there may be a rebound demand in the short term, and the 4H forms a double top suppression near 3250. We need to pay attention to the range breakthrough trend during the day. At the same time, on the news front, the situation in Israel is becoming increasingly serious. Before any major news comes out, we will focus on the support effect of the 3200 line in the short term, and focus on the 3240-3250 resistance range on the upside.
🎁BUY 3210-3200
🎁TP 3230-3250
🎁SELL 3242-3250
🎁TP 3230-3210
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Multiple Resistances and Profit bookingMultiple resistances, trend line resistances are acting on Nifty and hampering it's progress. Also there is Profit booking seen across the board in all sectors. Additionally there is a new COVID scare that is spreading in China, Singapore and Hong Kong. These are the factors currently facing Nifty and not allowing it to fly above 25K levels and forcing it in downward spiral.
The resistances for Nifty remain now at: 25234, 25064, 24937, 24780, However we are entering into support zone now.
The supports for Nifty remain at: 24664, 24509, 24259, 23900 (Strong Mother line support of daily chart) and 23576 (Strong Father line support of daily chart).
To know more about importance of Father and Mother line supports and resistances read my book the Happy Candles Way to Wealth Creation. The book is available on Amazon in Paperback and Kindle Version. You can learn about Fundamental and Technical analysis from the book. The book also gives you knowledge about the art of Profit booking and novel ways of stock data analysis. Lot of reviewers consider it a hand book to investing in stock market. Everything is explained in simple jargon free language with examples of Cricket and day to day life which makes understanding of difficult investing concepts very easy. You will not regret buying the book that we can assure you.
As the multiple resistances were very strong this fall / correction / consolidation was bound to happen. As of now this should be seen as a regular market phenomenon only. Bear will become more active only if Father line support is broken. Bulls will become more active only when we get a closing above 25064. Above 25234 is a pure bull territory. Below 23576 is pure bear territory. Right now we are in no man's land.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
XU - 15M BEAR BIAS- ASN - MINOR PB $3200 ( FROM $3225 ZONE)asn: asian session
ta: rotational environment -
descending triangle + rtd (roof top drop)
--
cross asset distrubtion
--
equities - bull climate - w21 mon -buy the dip from moodys downgrade to close higher, ( bearish sentiment --> bullish oppt )
--> risk on continuation ( rally strength tbd - odds are lower re: 3rd stg/leg of trend + earning season winding down)
looking at overnight rotation capital flow:
risk on - gaining / bullish stablization ( re nvda + coreweave, general bullish allocation)
risk off - declining / bearish
XU - 4H + 15M BEAR BIAS - MINOR PB $3200 ( FROM $3225 ZONE)
ta: rotational environment -
descending triangle + rtd (roof top drop)
--
cross asset distrubtion
--
equities - bull climate - w21 mon -buy the dip from moodys downgrade to close higher, ( bearish sentiment --> bullish oppt )
--> risk on continuation ( rally strength tbd - odds are lower re: 3rd stg/leg of trend + earning season winding down)
looking at overnight rotation capital flow:
risk on - gaining / bullish stablization ( re nvda + coreweave, general bullish allocation)
risk off - declining / bearish
GOLD will be Bearish before it goes BullishThe GOLD market has started consolidating between 3207 & 3250 zone. I expect the market to retrace back to fill the opening gap it created this week as market opened. after which I would look for a candlestick confirmation to go long. Meanwhile tomorrow I'll be looking for shorts if market breaks the Asian range to the downside. I will be using my breakout & retest strategy to capture the move which I will also share here if you wish to take the trade.
Note that My Overall sentiment on Gold is Bullish.
Gold still has the potential to rebound, continue to buy goldTechnical aspect:
Gold has just retreated to around 3217 and then rebounded again. It has now rebounded to around 3235. Although the rebound strength is a little weak, it has even hovered around 3235 for a long time. But structurally, gold did not destroy the rising structure during the decline, and the strength of structural support was strengthened after the effective retracement support. After being recognized and accepted by the market, gold will continue to rise with structural support. Once gold breaks through the short-term resistance area of 3250-3260, it will continue to rise to 3280-3290, or even around 3320.
Trading strategy:
Before the short-term rising structure is destroyed, we can still continue to try to go long on gold in the 3325-3315 area, TP: 3240-3250
3235 line becomes short-term resistance? Golden layout at night!🗞News side:
1. Trump's dialogue with Russia and Ukraine on ceasefire
2. The seriousness of the situation in Israel
📈Technical aspects:
In the short term, the three key factors affecting the gold market are the certainty of tariff policies, geopolitical risks, and the pace of the Fed's interest rate cuts. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is a tail risk that deserves attention. Its impact on the global order far exceeds other geopolitical conflicts. It is expected that the conflict may see a key turning point in May and June, and the Fed's interest rate cut is likely to be implemented in the third quarter. At that time, the gold and silver markets may face greater negative pressure, and prices may fall back to 3000-2800 or even lower. Technically, the double top pattern at the daily level has been established. Although there is a certain resistance at the 3235 line of gold in the short term, considering the tail risk, the possibility of evolving into a triple top cannot be ruled out, and we need to be vigilant against the inducement of multi-money rises and washes.
🎁BUY 3220-3215
🎁TP 3230-3240
🎁SELL 3250-3255
🎁TP 3235-3225
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
AUDCHF: More Growth Ahead 🇦🇺🇨🇭
AUDCHF strongly reacted to a rising trend line on a daily.
The price formed an ascending triangle pattern on a 4H time frame
and is now breaking its horizontal neckline.
I expect a bullish continuation to 0.540 / 0.543 levels.
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Beware of a sharp surge at the beginning of the week!🗞News side:
1. The India-Pakistan conflict has been eased, but India has increased its troops in Kashmir
2. The situation between Russia and Ukraine has escalated again
3. Trump has asked Walmart to absorb the impact of tariffs on its own
📈Technical aspects:
Gold jumped higher in the Asian session in the morning and once tested the 3250 resistance line. In the short term, the upward space is limited and there is a certain suppression. At present, gold is testing the 3210-3200 support level again. Judging from the 4H chart, if the gold price breaks through this short-term support level, it is likely to go to the 3170 level next, or even test the strong support level of 3150. If it gets effective support at 3210-3200, gold may test the resistance area again. Therefore, in the short-term trading in the Asia and Europe sessions, maintain the high-level short-selling and low-level long-selling cycle to participate. On the upside, focus on the 3250-3260 resistance area. If it breaks through, it is expected to look towards the 3300 line. On the downside, focus on the 3210-3200 support line. If it breaks through this support, look to the 3170-3150 important support.
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD