ZB1! -MASSIVE Week Ahead With Interest Rates There is a strong correlation between bonds and yields and so far, the trajectory of price action for bonds has been in my favour, trailing higher and higher into the weekly premium SIBI.
115.18 is the equilibrium of the most immediate swing high to swing low and I am expecting a draw into this area.
116 is a low hanging, first target for next week that I am aiming for and would like to see how Sundays opening reacts (if that’s the case) with 116.
Candlestick Analysis
BTC Speculative Elliot Wave Count (Diagonal as C)This sketch is based on the channels generated by my automated custom indicator, "Seer Tee," designed to replicate Candle Range Theory (CRT) by @Romeotpt.
**Assumptions:**
1. We are in a corrective zigzag wave's final progressive wave, C.
2. Wave C is a diagonal.
3. The second internal wave of the diagonal forms an expanded or running flat.
4. The flat includes a diagonal C.
Any invalidation of these assumptions will necessitate a revision of the entire count. Therefore, this sketch is a hypothetical, fragile, and speculative representation of the count.
XAUUSD Week 11 Review – Preparing for Week 12 Watch the video for the full breakdown and key insights on our trading plan for Week 12!
After a strong bullish run into the end of Week 11, XAUUSD hit all-time highs near 3000 before stalling. Price has broken structure to the upside, and now we’re watching for a retracement before continuation higher.
Key Levels to Watch
- 3000 – All-time high, major psychological level.
- 2955 – Previous months high.
- 2940 – Week 09 open & previous consolidation high.
- 2920 – Daily opposing candles, possible reaction zone.
- Daily Imbalance Below – Strong demand area for potential long re-entries.
Lower Time Frame Considerations
- Potential Market Maker Sell Model Developing – The only contrarian signal against the overall bullish sentiment.
- To hold onto shorts for an extended move, we need to see this model play out very clearly—otherwise, long opportunities at key POIs remain valid.
Plan for Week 12
- Short-term bearish bias towards discount levels, looking for long setups at key demand zones.
- Watching for retracement before re-entering longs—no rush to chase price.
- If market structure confirms bearish development, extended downside moves remain possible.
Let’s stay flexible, execute with clarity, and trade what we see.
#XAUUSD #MarketReview #PriceAction #TradingDiscipline #HandDrawnCharts
Index Of The Week: Nifty Financial Services. The index that did very well this week and which has potential to carry forward the momentum into the next week seems to be the CNX Financial Service index.
The Financial index looks strongly placed above Mother Line of 50 Weeks EMA line. The resistances it faces or can face if it moves upwards can be 23332 and 23823. The next resistance for CNX Financial services is a major trend line hurdle at 24387. Crossing this can give the index a major breakout and a Free run towards 24899 or even 25K plus levels. The support for CNX Finance is the Mother line at 22890 and 22323. There is also a trend line support at this level. Falling below this level can see CNX Finance drop rapidly towards 21638 or below levels.
Now if this breakout actually happens in the Nifty Financial Services Index the stocks that composites the Finance index will be the beneficiary in general. Some might benefit more some might benefit less and some might not benefit but for index to move upward the stocks composing it have to perform well. To know which stocks will do better than others we will have to look at their individual charts. The stocks which make the Nifty Financial Serviced index are HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Kotak Bank, Axis Bank, Kotak Bank, SBI, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, HDFC Life, SBI Life, Shriram Finance, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance, PFC, REC, SBI Cards, ICICI Lombard, HDFC Asset Management, SBI Cards, ICICI Prudential Life, LIC Housing Finance, Muthoot Finance and IEX. The Index Can Perform if the majority constituents or the stocks with heavy weightage perform. Some of these stocks can perform others might not. Choose wisely after consulting your investment advisor, studying fundamentals and Technicals of each company.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Nifty near important support holding it is key for progress. Nifty this week tried to consolidate and in the process lot a lost of ground covered last week. Holding the support level of 22314 is the key to move forward. If this major support is broken Nifty may again fall to the strong Bear zone of 21975, 21782 or even 21285 levels. If 22314 support is held the future resistances can be 22531, 22668 and 22842. If these resistances are crossed we will reach Mother and Father line resistances at 23018 and 23419. A monthly closing above Father line resistance that is 23419 can bring Bulls back into action. Shadow of the candle is neutral with slightly positive tinge.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
[How to] Properly analyzing relative equal levels with orderflow🔑 This is a basic principle and idea overview of why price will behave a certain way around levels where double lows or highs are. Also reviewing what is called Low Resistance Liquidity. This happens when multiple levels are stacked going lower or higher without a stop hunt.
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Skeptic | Weekly Recap: Big Wins, Misses & Lessons!Hey guys! 👋I’m Skeptic , and today I’m gonna do a full recap of the past week’s positions and watchlist.
We’re gonna see what worked, what didn’t, and what lessons we learned along the way. Let’s get into it!
🚀 Position Review: What We’ll Cover
What was the trigger?
What was the result (profit/loss)?
Why did it work or fail?
I’ll be linking all the relevant ideas so you can check out the full analysis for each setup.
Also, if I don’t mention a position, it’s because the trigger I gave hasn’t activated yet.
Let’s dive in!
💥 Position #1: XAUUSD (12 March)
📈 4-Hour Time Frame
Recently, we saw a breakout of the range box, but the price quickly pulled back inside, indicating that sellers failed to maintain bearish momentum. This suggests that the long-term uptrend is still holding strong.
🔮 Next Move?
If we see a break above the 4-hour resistance at 2927.25, it could be a solid signal for continuing the uptrend.
The final bullish trigger will be after a breakout above 2954.74, confirming strong upside momentum.
📉 Short Setup:
The main short trigger is a break below 2878.84.
Once that level breaks, there’s no significant support until 2841.74, so the move could be sharp and quick.
Given the importance of this support, expect some volatility and adjust your stops accordingly.
✅ Outcome:
The long trigger at 2919 was activated, and we managed to hit an R/R of 5.
Reasons for Success:
Trading in the direction of the major trend:
Always increases R/R and win rate.
Strong breakout candle:
A solid 4-hour candle showed both buyer strength and seller presence, signaling a great breakout opportunity.
Good momentum:
Previous corrections were minimal (less than 35% on the Fib retracement), and bullish candles were strong.
💥 Position #2: XAGUSD (12 March)
We recently witnessed a range box breakout, but the price swiftly pulled back inside, showing that sellers failed to keep the momentum. The daily major uptrend still looks strong.
✅ Outcome:
This position also delivered an R/R of 3.
Reasons for Success:
Long trade aligned with the trend:
Always a safer bet.
Sharp reaction to resistance:
Breaking strong resistance often results in a sharp move.
No major resistance ahead:
This allowed the move to extend further, giving us a higher R/R.
💥 Position #3: SPX (14 March)
🔍 Market Overview:
The weekly trend is still up, but the daily time frame has entered a corrective downtrend due to trade tariff issues between the U.S. and other countries. This led to the Fed holding off on interest rate cuts, impacting risk assets like stocks and BTC.
On the 4-hour time frame, we entered a range box and recently saw a fake breakout to the downside. The price quickly bounced back into the range, showing buyer strength and seller weakness. This gives a slight long bias.
✅ Outcome:
Our trigger at 5564.67 activated with a solid indecision candle on the 1-hour time frame. If you took the trade with a safe stop loss, you should be sitting on an R/R of 2 by now.
Reasons for Success:
Fake breakout recovery:
Sellers couldn’t hold the price down, and buyers pushed it back into the range, absorbing liquidity.
Lower-than-expected inflation:
Improved sentiment and led to a bullish push.
Indecision candle confirmation:
Signaled buyer presence and seller exhaustion.
💡 Key Takeaway:
This week, we managed to secure an R/R of 10, which is fantastic.
I’m not gonna brag about how much profit we made, because that number can vary based on each trader’s risk management and position size.
A professional trader measures success through win rate, losing streaks, and R/R, not just the percentage of profit made.
🚨 Pro Tip:
If anyone claims they make “X% profit consistently,” be cautious—it’s probably a scam.
Real traders focus on maintaining consistent risk management and realistic expectations.
💬 Final Thoughts:
If you took any of these trades or have similar setups, share your experience in the comments!
And if you’ve got any questions or insights, drop them below—I’m here to help and discuss.
Let’s grow together, not alone! 💪🔥
Wishing you an awesome weekend!
Solana Wave Analysis – 14 March 2025
- Solana reversed from the long-term support level 113.75
- Likely to rise to the resistance level 130.60
Solana cryptocurrency recently reversed from the major long-term support level 113.75, which has been reversing the price from last April.
The upward reversal from the support level 113.75 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing which started the active minor wave iv.
Given the strength of the support level 113.75 and the oversold daily Stochastic, Solana cryptocurrency can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 130.60.
Us30 Reversal /Re entry 📝 US30 (Dow Jones) - Bearish Outlook | 1H Chart 📉
🔹 Market Bias: Bearish
🔹 Key Zones:
Sell Entry: 40,850 - 41,100 (Retracement to resistance)
Stop Loss (SL): Above 41,250 (Beyond liquidity grab zone)
Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 40,500 (First support)
TP2: 40,250 (Key demand zone)
TP3: 39,920 (Final target)
🔹 Analysis:
Price is trading below the 50 & 200 EMA → Downtrend intact 📉
Lower highs & lower lows → Bearish market structure
Potential fakeout before the drop, especially around high-impact news at 4 PM SAST ⚠️
🔹 News Event Consideration:
If data is weak → US30 likely continues dropping 📉
If data is strong → Possible short-term spike before reversal 🔄
🔹 Risk Management:
Be cautious of stop hunts & manipulation before the news.
If price breaks above 41,250 & holds, reconsider bearish bias.
🚀 Trade smart, manage risk, and stay updated on market sentiment!
#US30 #DowJones #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #Trading #PriceAction #Forex #Indices
Us30 Reversal / Re entry 📝 US30 (Dow Jones) - Bearish Outlook | 1H Chart 📉
🔹 Market Bias: Bearish
🔹 Key Zones:
Sell Entry: 40,850 - 41,100 (Retracement to resistance)
Stop Loss (SL): Above 41,250 (Beyond liquidity grab zone)
Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 40,500 (First support)
TP2: 40,250 (Key demand zone)
TP3: 39,920 (Final target)
🔹 Analysis:
Price is trading below the 50 & 200 EMA → Downtrend intact 📉
Lower highs & lower lows → Bearish market structure
Potential fakeout before the drop, especially around high-impact news at 4 PM SAST ⚠️
🔹 News Event Consideration:
If data is weak → US30 likely continues dropping 📉
If data is strong → Possible short-term spike before reversal 🔄
🔹 Risk Management:
Be cautious of stop hunts & manipulation before the news.
If price breaks above 41,250 & holds, reconsider bearish bias.
🚀 Trade smart, manage risk, and stay updated on market sentiment!
#US30 #DowJones #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #Trading #PriceAction #Forex #Indices
SILVER (XAGUSD): Bullish Rally Continues
With a yesterday's strong bullish movement, Silver
broke and closed above a key daily resistance cluster.
Watching how strong is the bullish momentum today,
I think that the market will continue rising.
Next resistance - 3440
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XAUUSD (Gold) daily market analysisThe momentum is still up and it looks like gold is poised to retest the 2950 levels again, unless we see some healthy candle closures towards the 2895 levels.
Join me, a CFA charterholder, as I breakdown the daily market scenario for XAUUSD (GOLD). Whether you're a beginner or an experienced trader, this video is packed with insights to help you improve your trading game. Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more trading tips and strategies!
GBPJPY analysisAfter two days of bullish candles, GBPJPY is still within the ranges of 189 to 193. However, it could present some good intraday trading opportunities during the London and NY session today. As I write this, the price has already broken below the 192 level and is hanging around the 191.2 level. If we see then level break, then we could see it make its way towards 190.2. If it finds suport at this level and goes up to the 192 level again, then it coulf present with a nice shorting opportunity to test the 191.2 levels again. The momentum seems to be towards the downside today and I would not buy this market unless I see some really healthy bullish candles towards the upside. At the moment, it is about waiting for the retracement to sell again.
There is big data release during the NY session today, so the overall direction could be dictated by what the data is like at that time.
BTC Bears?The momentum seems to be clearly down for Bitcoin at the moment. There was a spike up after Trump announced that Bitcoin could be used as a strategic reserve in the US, but then made its way down again showing weakness in the market. For today, there is an inverse head and shoulder pattern coming to play, where the neckline is failing to break above the 84,200 levels. As it hangs around there, there could be more shorts opportunity towards 81,000 and possibly down. However, if it breaks above that neckline and then manages to close above, then it could open the way for price to move towards 86,200.
There is big data release today during the NY session, so it could range before the data is released.
Quick update on XAUUSD (Gold)As posted earlier in my analysis, we were looking for an entry around the support formed during the Asian session. If you took that, please consider taking some profits now. The overall target for today is 2050 but we will have to watch out for 2045 level, which is the previous level of resistance.
AUDCHF: Strong Bullish Chart Pattern 🇦🇺🇨🇭
AUDCHF formed an inverted head & shoulders pattern on a 4h time frame
after a test of a key intraday/daily horizontal support.
After a deep retest of a broken neckline, we finally see a positive bullish reaction.
I think that the market will rise and reach 0.56 level soon.
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I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
USDJPY SHORTsMarket structure bearish DW
Entry at both Weekly and Daily
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Previous Weekly Structure Point
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 149.000
H4 Candlestick rejection
Levels 10.23
Entry 95%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
Short positions are in trouble, how to get out of trouble?Bros, gold accelerated to above 2980 today under the stimulation of news. If you hold a short position in gold, you must be in a trading dilemma, so how to get rid of the trading dilemma has become the current primary goal.
First remember the key node, Thursday. Under normal circumstances, Thursday and Friday are the nodes most likely to cause market changes! And from the candle chart, it is just pulled back to the high area with the stimulation of news. From the regional conversion, we can clearly see that according to the current momentum of gold, it will only reach the area around 2980-2982 (there may be a technical false breakthrough). It is difficult to rise to the vicinity of the 3000 mark in one fell swoop.
If you still have sufficient margin levels to help you get out of trouble, you might as well consider adding more positions near 2980 to continue shorting gold, effectively raising your average cost price. After gold falls back, you can choose to close all short positions and turn losses into profits. However, because gold has risen sharply, we must lower our expectations for the extent of gold's retracement. If gold retraces to the 2940-2930 area, we can consider closing our positions, so that we can turn losses into profits! And I predict that gold will enter a correction market tomorrow at the latest!
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