US500 Trade insight Price breaks above December high 6102.21 so I believe we are currently on a retracement to 5901.87 for continuing to the upside.
If the ISM manufacturing PMI news happening at 10:00 UTC-5 NY push proce to my POI then I'll stick to my buy bias but if it pushes price to the upside without getting to my point of interest then I might look for a short sell from 6024.40 down to my Poi for buy.
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Candlestick Analysis
Ethereum 20% Crash: Temporary Setback or a Buy Opportunity?Hello, Traders!
Ethereum experienced a significant drop, plunging over 20% in just one day and hitting its lowest point since last August.
ETH price found strong support at $2130 and I don’t expect further downfall beyond this level unless broader market conditions deteriorate.
One of the key technical developments was Ethereum breaking the crucial $2800 support zone, which is a bearish signal for the continuation of the uptrend.
However, a quick recovery above this level could reignite bullish momentum and bring buyers back into the market. W
atching how ETH reacts to this resistance will be crucial in the coming days.
The main catalyst for this sell-off was Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, which triggered a broader risk-off sentiment in global markets.
The crypto space, being highly sensitive to macroeconomic events, saw a sharp reaction, with Ethereum and other major altcoins suffering deep corrections.
Despite the current bearish outlook, there is one major reason why Ethereum is likely to recover quickly — the upcoming Pectra upgrade, set to take place next month.
Historically, ETH has seen strong rallies leading up to major network upgrades, and I expect a similar pattern to unfold this time.
If the market stabilizes and sentiment shifts, Ethereum could reclaim lost ground and resume its long-term bullish trajectory.
For now, the key levels to watch are $2130 as support and $2800 as resistance.
A break above $2800 could signal a strong reversal, while failure to hold $2130 might open the door for deeper corrections
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DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Does The Market OVERREACT?
It looks like Dollar Index is preparing for a retracement
after a very bullish market opening.
As a clear sign of strength of the sellers, I see
a head and shoulders pattern on an hourly
and a breakout of its neckline.
The market may drop at least to 108.6
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Possible buying opportunityRisky trade with a low probability of 60-65% but high reward trade. The market already broke through and is now retesting if we get a bullish confirmation on the HIGH then we can place our buys with tight Stop-loss(below the area) and our TP on the Major Key Level(Black lines)
XAU/USD Feb '25 OutlookJanuary we have Gold in Bull trend towards the Chinese New Year which is very common. I think it will be due for a pullback, as seen by a sell-off during Asian session.
We have a candle displacement, taking liquidity at $2790 and now a retracement back.
The first week of February will be full of economic news from PMI, NFP and England's Bank Rate. I expect some volatility and will take 1-2 setups, probably avoiding Thu and Fri.
Long trade
4hr TF overview
Buyside trade 1
Sun 2nd Feb 25
LND to NY Session AM
11.00 am
Entry 0.000015469
Profit level 0.000017276 (11.68%)
Stop level 0.000015273 (1.27%)
RR 9.22
Reason: overnight drop (12.82%)
Whykoff narrative: I assumed we reached the Selling climax..?
Indicative of a buyside trade.
Observed 4Hr TF
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) - End of January AnalysisBitcoin and the Stock index market are amazing for comparing how fundamental news impacts these asset classes.
Both markets don’t have a strong correlation when we look at the price charts but the biggest thing they have in common is Artificial Intelligence meaning any negative news that is released will affect the price of both classes classes.
We have seen weakness on the weekly timeframe with the chance of a draw down into a discount below $90,000.
EUR/USD - End of January AnalysisA lot more indecision on the monthly timeframe, closing bullish inside of the previous monthly candle.
Does this signify a possibility for a short term rally?
In this analysis, I cover the possibilities of a retracement back inside of the weekly range or a continuation into the higher timeframe arrays.
Dow Jones (March 2025) - End of January AnalysisSimilar to Nasdaq and S&P, although we have closed bullish for the month, Donald Trump has made an announcement that tariffs will be placed in Mexico, Canada and China at a rate of 25% & 10%, which the market did not seem to like on the Friday.
Intraday timeframes tell a different story to what the macro market structure is dictating.
Short term, we could be in for a bearish retracement, rooting out all the stubborn traders who have a medium to long term trade on whilst trailing their stop.
Very interested this month with how YM, NQ and ES delivers.
Nasdaq (March 2025) - End of January AnalysisNasdaq was set for weekly losses due to the rout that DeepSeek caused; revealing the breakthrough they had with low-cost artificial intelligence models. This caused a bloodbath in AI linked stocks.
Technically speaking, we closed the month bullish but was still within a price range of the previous month, December 2024.
Anything higher than 50% of the December monthly wick would give me the confidence to continue the bullish bias but I see the opportunity for a short-term market shift back into a area of previous rejections @ $20,025 - $20,428 so this is what I am looking toward until proven otherwise.
Candle body closure above $22,093.50 will change my monthly bias to bullish as this will go hand in hand with my 6-month perspective
S&P 500 (March 2025) - End of January AnalysisS&P breaks the two week winning streak, finishing 1% down in rough trading conditions as China’s AI push weights amid bevy of corporate reports.
With the news being released by Donald Trump that 25% tariffs will be imposed on Mexico and Canada + 10% for China, this could be seen as a bullish signal for the stock index. But sometimes bullies don’t always get their way and we could be in for a short term retracement targeting the lows of October’s bullish order block @ $5,856 - $5,776
Dollar Index - End of January AnalysisJune 2022 was the last time we witnessed a major bullish run reaching into macro imbalances @ 110.
Donald Trump was elected in November 2024 and ever since, we have witnessed a similar run, in which Dollar punished those who were short based on market trend and sentiment at the time.
Many long term traders saw 106 as ‘safe’ price point to place their buystops but the market had other plans… As the algorithm repriced higher upto 106, it became a self fulfilling prophecy where more buy stops were triggered increasing the likelihood of a low resistance liquidity run.
Highs for the month is 110.176
Lows for the month is 107.969
Bearish bias negated if I see a candle body closure above the monthly highs and CE of 6 month sellside imbalance.
Nasdaq (March 2025) - AI All-Time High Boom!Nasdaq is trailing higher, just as ES and YM are but the market to watchout for is ES. Refer to this weeks analysis of ES to gain a deeper understanding.
Unlike ES where i am targeting all-time highs, I am more fascinated with the midpoint of the highs and open of the 16th Dec 2024 weekly candle as I would like to study how price reacts from this area.
S&P 500 (March 2025) - Expecting Resistance At All-Time HighsA rally to ATH is always a good sight to see but what I don't want to see is a fake out, especially in the higher timeframes like the weekly or daily.
Candlesticks like doji's, shooting stars just above ATH can increase the likelihood of a retracement back down into previous inefficiencies.
For the next two weeks, we all are going to be on a wild ride!