Gold’s Uptrend Is a Mirage, Bears Are Lurking Beneath!Gold repeatedly touched around 3375 yesterday and then fell under pressure, proving that there is strong resistance above. Moreover, after gold retreated and touched around 3341 yesterday, it did not recover in time and stand above 3350. It was not until today that it rebounded and touched around 3365. The rebound cycle has been extended to the present, and the rebound strength is not very strong.
Since gold retreated, it has not been able to recover the lost ground in time. Gold is under pressure in the 3360-3370 area in the short term. If gold cannot successfully break through this resistance area during the day, then gold will retreat again, and will refresh the 3341 low again, and continue to the 3335-3325 area.
So for short-term trading, I think we can try to short gold in the 3360-3370 area appropriately, looking at the target area: 3350-3340
Candlestick Analysis
Pfizer May Be StallingPfizer has limped higher since April, but some traders may think the pharmaceutical giant is at risk of stalling.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs since January. PFE potentially just made another lower high at this falling trendline, which may suggest resistance is taking effect.
Second, the peak is occurring near the 200-day simple moving average. That could indicate its long-term trend is pointing lower.
Third is the 2023 low of $25.76. At the time, it was the lowest price in the preceding decade. After spending more than a year on either side of this level, PFE is now stalling in the same area. Has old support finally turned into new resistance?
Fourth, the candles of July 8 and July 10 showed prices trying and failing to cross the same long-term level. Such “shooting star” candlesticks may be short-term reversal patterns.
Finally, PFE is an active underlier in the options market. (It’s averaged more than 90,000 contracts per session in the last month, according to TradeStation data.) That might help traders take positions with calls and puts.
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It is expected to fluctuate and fall before CPI data📰 News information:
1. Focus on tomorrow's CPI data
2. Bowman's speech at the Federal Reserve
3. Tariff information outflows and countries' responses to tariff issues
📈 Technical Analysis:
The 1H chart shows that the gold price continued to pull back last night and then fluctuated at the bottom, and continued the rebound trend this morning. The key pressure level is the top and bottom conversion level. The current rebound in gold is only a secondary confirmation of the top structure at the 30-minute level. After reaching 3365, it has shown signs of short-term pressure. In a volatile market, if the price begins to consolidate horizontally, it may indicate the end of this round of volatile upward trend, and it will enter a downward phase later. Considering the market sensitivity before the release of CPI data, it is recommended to focus on the volatile decline trend. After today's rebound, it is necessary to focus on the 3365-3368 area as a short-selling range, and the long-short defense position is set at yesterday's intraday high of 3375. The support below focuses on the 3350-3340 range.
🎯 Trading Points:
SELL 3358-3368
TP 3345-3333
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, facing your mistakes, and exercising strict self-discipline. I share free trading strategies and analysis ideas every day for reference by brothers. I hope my analysis can help you.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
XAU/USD 15 July Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
You will note that price has targeted weak internal high on two separate occasions forming a double top which is a bearish reversal pattern. This is in-line with HTF bearish pullback phase.
Remainder of analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025.
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
H4 Timeframe - Price has failed to target weak internal high, therefore, it would not be unrealistic if price printed a bearish iBOS.
The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Eyes on 3335–3325: Next Bullish Launchpad!!!Today, gold hit 3375 several times and then fell back after encountering resistance. The lowest has reached 3341. Although the rising structure has not been completely destroyed, and the technical double bottom structure and the inverted head and shoulder structure support resonance effect still exist below, since gold fell below 3350, it has not even been able to stand above 3350 in the current rebound. The gold bull pattern has been weakened to a certain extent, and the market has begun to diverge in the long and short consciousness.
Gold encountered resistance and fell back near 3375 three times, proving that the upper resistance is relatively strong. Gold must increase liquidity by retracement to store more energy for breakthrough, so the short-term correction of gold is actually within my expectations, which is why I advocate brave shorting of gold today! However, according to the current retracement range and the fact that gold has been unable to stabilize above 3350, I believe that gold has not fallen to the right level and there is still room for retracement below. So I think gold will continue to pull back to test the 3335-3325 area. If gold retests this area and does not fall below, we can boldly go long on gold in this area.
Once gold rebounds after testing the 3335-3325 area, as liquidity increases, the market may form a strong bullish force to support gold to continue its rebound and continue to the 3380-3390 area, or even the 3400-3410 area.
Converging triangle, may rise again in the short termUnder the influence of recent tariffs and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the main trend of the gold market remains bullish, but from the weekly and monthly level analysis, there is a high probability that it will pull back again after this round of highs and maintain a large range of fluctuations at a high level. Technical analysis shows that gold currently does not have the conditions for a unilateral surge at the daily level. Although the key level of 3345 has been broken, the continuity of the market is extremely poor, and volatility is still the main theme. At present, the trend of gold has formed a converging triangle pattern, and it may rise again in the short term. However, we need to be vigilant that the weekly line may form a high-rise and fall pattern, and the price of gold may fall back to 3300! Therefore, in today's late trading, you can consider retreating to the 3335-3330 area to go long
OANDA:XAUUSD
End-of-Session Market ReviewToday was a solid trading day with some interesting moves across the markets:
S&P 500: The market trended upwards from the open, gradually moving into and above the prior day’s value area, closing near the high of that range.
NASDAQ 100: After some initial back-and-forth, it climbed above the prior day’s high and value area, showing strength into the close.
Russell 2000: This market was quite choppy and balanced for a good part of the session, but eventually pushed up to close near the prior value area high.
Gold: It stayed range-bound, moving between the CVA high and the prior day’s value area without breaking out.
Crude Oil: We saw a significant drop right from the start, with prices falling about 1.5 points and ending the day lower, though still within the prior day’s range.
Euro Dollar: It tested the CVA low, dipped below the prior day’s low, and then bounced back to close around that level.
Yen Dollar: It started near the prior value area low, accepted below it by midday, and remained balanced in that lower range.
Aussie Dollar: Initially, it held above the CVA area and tested a higher level before sharply dropping below the prior day’s low and then balancing in that lower area.
In total, I took eight trades today. Two of them were in the Yen, both valid setups that didn’t work out and ended in stop-outs. I also took some long trades in the Aussie Dollar that I probably could have avoided since the market was choppy.
On the positive side, I managed risk well and ended up with two winning trades that put me in the green by about $1,200. Overall, I’d rate today as an A- day. Moving forward, I’ll focus on staying out of choppy markets, paying attention to the developing value area, and possibly using Heikin Ashi bars for better clarity.
Today's summary and tomorrow's market forecast📰 News information:
1. Focus on tomorrow's CPI data
2. Bowman's speech at the Federal Reserve
3. Tariff information outflows and countries' responses to tariff issues
📈 Technical Analysis:
Bros, I had some things to deal with just now so I went out for a while. Now I come back to share my ideas. When the market is blindly chasing longs, I chose to give a bearish trading opportunity. I know that after I proposed the idea of shorting to test the support level of 3340-3330 below, many people were skeptical and even looked at it with a sarcastic attitude. After all, most people in the market are long. But facts and results have proved that only by following the trend can there be better room for operation. When doing transactions, you must first have a clear goal. Those who follow the crowd will often only blame their mistakes on others or luck.
Regarding the arrangements for future trading, first of all, 3375-3385 above is still an important short-term resistance. If today's closing is above 3360, then 3375 will most likely be tested again during the Asia-Europe trading session. Once it goes up again, it is very likely to break through the resistance area of 3375-3385. Before the US data, the price may stay at 3390 or 3400. On the contrary, if today's closing is below 3360, then the price still has room for adjustment. In this way, 3340 will not be the low point of this week. The bearish volatility in the Asian and European sessions will also test the strong support of 3330-3320.
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, facing your mistakes, and exercising strict self-discipline. I share free trading strategies and analysis ideas every day for reference by brothers. I hope my analysis can help you.
OANDA:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD
AUD/USD: Bearish Pattern Hints at Downside MoveAUD/USD has struggled on pushes towards .6600 recently, including on Monday where a bearish reversal completed a three-candle evening star pattern—a notable topping pattern. While price signals ahead of major U.S. economic data during the Northern Hemisphere summer should be treated with extra caution, in an environment where trade uncertainty and geopolitical tensions are unlikely to be resolved in the near term, a short setup may be in order.
Should AUD/USD push back towards minor resistance at .6558 without breaking above, shorts could be established beneath the level with a stop above for protection. .6490 screens as a logical initial target, aligning with the 50-day moving average with the July 7 low located just below.
Some may look to enter around current levels, but given the caveats on the price signal, the preference is to let the setup come to you rather than forcing it.
Good luck!
DS
GBPCAD SHORTMarket structure bearish on HTFs DH
Entry at both Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Daily EMA retest
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 1.85500
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 4.04
Entry 100%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
USD/JPY(20250714)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
① Fed's Goolsbee: The latest tariff threat may delay rate cuts. ② The Fed responded to the White House's "accusations": The increase in building renovation costs partly reflects unforeseen construction conditions. ③ "Fed's megaphone": The dispute over building renovations has challenged the Fed's independence again, and it is expected that no rate cuts will be made this month. ④ Hassett: Whether Trump fires Powell or not, the Fed's answer to the headquarters renovation is the key.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
147.02
Support and resistance levels:
148.39
147.88
147.55
146.49
146.15
145.64
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 147.55, consider buying, and the first target price is 147.88
If the price breaks through 147.02, consider selling, and the first target price is 146.49
Mid-Session Market InsightsMid-Session Market Insights
In today's session, I'm closely monitoring eight different futures markets: S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, Gold, Crude Oil, Euro Dollar, Yen Dollar, and Aussie Dollar.
S&P 500: We're seeing a rotational pattern within the prior day's value area and the CVA. I'm eyeing long opportunities from the prior value area low up to the high.
NASDAQ 100: The market is a bit choppy around the PVA and CVA highs, with a slight upward intraday trend. I'm staying cautious here.
Russell 2000: Also choppy, but we've got acceptance within the CVA. I'm looking for long opportunities from the CVA low, which aligns with the prior day's low.
Euro Dollar: I'm currently short from the CVA high, with the first target at the prior day's low. We've broken below the prior value area, so I'll trail this trade and see how it develops.
Yen Dollar: It’s been a bit of a mixed bag. I took a short below the CVA and prior day's low, got stopped out, but it was still a decent setup.
Aussie Dollar: I took some long positions that weren't the best setups, as it was quite choppy near the CVA high and prior day's low. Lesson learned for next time.
Crude Oil: I took a short from the CVA and PVA highs, hit my target at the low of those areas, and we’re currently hovering around that level.
EURUSD Short re entry, 14 JulyHTF Downtrend with Clean LTF Setup
Bias remains bearish with HTF downtrend, W imbalance resting above, and 4H 50EMA close to our zone.
📉 Confluence:
Textbook LTF structure, expecting LH → LL
DXY reacting from 15m POI + Asia low to fill
15m Extreme OB + 5m OB as entry zone
Clean 1m BOS confirming sellers stepping in → add another 50%
🎯 Entry: 50% tap of 5m OB after 1m BOS
🛡️ SL: Above LH structure
📌 TP: At least 1:3 RR down to Asia low
⚠️ Minor risk with W imbalance above, but strong trend and confirmations to support the trade.
3 hours ago
Trade active
We got an 1mBOS from the 15m POI
Got 2 entry points now : The one from the 5m OB marked out on the photo and one at the lower 5m that created the break. Will see what happens
High sell probability on Gold!!! Don’t sleep on it!XAUUSD (Gold) previous bullish momentum that was currently developing slowed down in the early hours of New York trading session today around the resistance level of 3357.80 I sense a big correction coming on Gold especially as higher timeframe (monthly) is already showing multiple candlestick exhaustion which signals profit taking activities after a prolonged bullish trend that has been developing since the major breakout around the $2,000 level. A sell opportunity is Envisaged once our entry criteria is met.
Expect a significant drop in price!
Nifty Analysis EOD – July 14, 2025 – Monday🟢 Nifty Analysis EOD – July 14, 2025 – Monday 🔴
"Broken Support, Fought Resistance – Tug of War in Play"
Nifty began the day with a classic Open = High (OH) setup, instantly rejecting any bullish intent. The crucial support zone of 25,080–25,060 was taken out early, and the market went on to mark the day's low at 25,001.95, a level that quickly turned into a decisive battleground.
After a bounce from the low, 25,125 emerged as a stiff resistance that pushed the index back below the broken support zone. For most of the session, the same support zone turned into resistance — a textbook polarity flip. However, in the final hour, Nifty showed resilience and finally closed back above 25,080, ending the session at 25,082.30.
🔄 The structure was full of failed intraday breakouts, signaling confusion and conflict — likely fueled by a wider CPR, imbalanced market structure, and medium IB of 109 pts. It was a low-volatility session, but packed with psychological tests.
🕯 5 Min Time Frame Chart with Intraday Levels
🕯 Daily Time Frame Chart with Intraday Levels
🕯 Daily Candle Breakdown
Open: 25,149.50
High: 25,151.10
Low: 25,001.95
Close: 25,082.30
Change: −67.55 (−0.27%)
📊 Candle Structure Breakdown
Real Body: 67.20 points – small to moderate bearish body
Upper Wick: 1.60 points – negligible upside attempt
Lower Wick: 80.35 points – strong defense from day’s low
🔍 Interpretation
Opened higher but got instantly rejected (OH formation).
Sellers took charge early but failed to hold momentum all the way.
The long lower wick reflects buyer presence at key 25,000 zone.
The close below open but above reclaimed support suggests tug of war — with bulls slightly redeeming themselves by EOD.
🕯 Candle Type
Hammer-like red candle — while bearish on close, the long lower shadow indicates potential exhaustion of selling and hints at reversal if follow-through buying emerges next session.
📌 Key Insight
25,000–25,020 has emerged as crucial near-term support.
A strong open or close above 25,150–25,180 may confirm a bullish reversal setup.
Breakdown below 25,000 opens the door for a fall toward 24,950 or lower.
🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart
⚔️ Gladiator Strategy Update
ATR: 188.77
IB Range: 109.20 → Medium IB
Market Structure: 🔴 Imbalanced
Trades Triggered
09:50 AM – Long Trade → ❌ SL Hit
01:05 PM – Short Trade → ❌ SL Hit
📉 Tough day for directional trades — false breakouts dominated.
📌 Support & Resistance Zones
Resistance Levels
25,125
25,168
25,180 ~ 25,212
25,260
25,295 ~ 25,315
Support Levels
25,080 ~ 25,060
25,000 ~ 24,980
24,965
💭 Final Thoughts
“Reclaimed ground doesn’t mean victory – yet. Watch the next move. Rejection below 25,000 ends the bulls' narrative; a strong move above 25,180 rewrites it.”
✏️ Disclaimer
This is just my personal viewpoint. Always consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
Skeptic | GBP/USD Update: Triggers Fired Up!Hey everyone, it’s Skeptic! ;) yesterday, the support at 1.35672 saw a fake breakout and snapped back into the 4-hour box we’ve been tracking. But bearish momentum is still strong, so here’s the play:
✔️ If you opened a short already , With the fake breakout signaling potential momentum shift, consider taking profits or closing if price consolidates above 1.36089. Why? The fakeout increases the chance of a momentum change.
✨ For new short positions , the 1.35672 break remains a valid trigger. If it breaks again, it could kickstart a major bearish leg, targeting lower supports at 1.35000 and 1.34227 —both strong reaction zones.
📊 The HWC is uptrend, so shorts need extra caution—reduce risk or take profits early.
📉 For longs , wait for a break and consolidation above 1.36406 . This level saw a strong rejection, signaling it’s a key resistance the market respects. A break here, liquidating short positions (which means buying), could spark a solid uptrend leg with great R/R potential.
🔔 Confirmation : Use RSI entering oversold for shorts or overbought for longs. The HWC uptrend means shorts carry higher risk, so tighten your risk management—stick to 1%–2% risk per trade.
🔼 Key Takeaway: Short at 1.35672 if it breaks again, long at 1.36406 with confirmation. Stay sharp for momentum shifts and keep stops tight. I’ll update if the market structure flips!
💬 Let’s Talk!
Which GBP/USD trigger are you locked on? Hit the comments, and let’s crush it together! 😊 If this update lit your fire, smash that boost—it fuels my mission! :)))
Gold Bulls Are Back – Eyes on 3450 GOLD – Bulls Regain Control After Defending 3280
🟡 Last week was a dynamic one for Gold traders.
The week began with signs of an upside reversal, followed by a drop to test the 3280 support. That dip held—and from there, we saw a strong push higher, ending the week right at the top of the range.
📌 Friday’s close left behind a continuation Pin Bar on the weekly chart – a strong signal in favor of the bulls.
- This week started with a new local high at 3375,but we’re now seeing a pullback in the 3355 area at the time of writing.
What’s next?
Given last week’s price action, bulls seem to have won the battle and appear ready to challenge the 3400 level.
My plan for this week:
I’m looking to buy dips, and as long as nothing changes, my target is the 3450 zone.
Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Big Week for Markets: U.S. CPI Tomorrow – What It Means for GoldThis week is packed with news, but the main focus is the U.S. CPI report dropping tomorrow.
🗓 Key Event: U.S. CPI Report
📍 July 15, 2025 | 12:30 p.m. UTC
The CPI report measures inflation and heavily influences the Fed’s rate decisions. Last month’s CPI came in at 2.4% vs. 2.5% expected, following 2.3% vs. 2.4% in April. While it seems inflation is rising, the bigger picture shows stable annual inflation in the 2.3%–3.0% range, keeping things under control—likely the reason Trump is pressuring Powell to cut rates.
Market expects June CPI to be 2.7%.
🤔 Possible Scenarios:
1️⃣ CPI > 2.7%: Bullish for DXY 📈. The stronger the print, the bigger the spike, but I see this scenario as less probable.
2️⃣ CPI < 2.7%: Bearish for DXY 📉. We may see a USD dump, though likely shallow since CPI could still be higher than previous months.
✨ What About Gold?
I don’t expect a major reaction in gold:
✅ Higher CPI? Gold often benefits as an inflation hedge.
✅ Lower CPI? Also supportive for gold as it weighs on the USD.
🔍 Technical Outlook:
Gold has been trading within a triangle since April 22, forming lower highs and higher lows. We may currently be in Wave D (Elliott Wave), aiming toward the triangle’s upper boundary slightly above $3,400 resistance. After that, Wave E may develop – but that’s a story for another post.