Candlestick Analysis
GBP/AUD: Bulls Eye Breakout, But Momentum Signals CautionThursday’s bullish engulfing candle and rising risk aversion have GBP/AUD knocking on the door of a bullish breakout, with the pair testing resistance at 2.0627 in early Asian trade on Monday.
Stepping back, GBP/AUD remains within an ascending triangle pattern, bouncing off uptrend support on four separate occasions this month. While convention suggests traders should watch for a topside break, momentum indicators are less convincing—RSI (14) has been diverging from price in recent weeks, while MACD is easing lower despite staying in positive territory.
The conflicting price and momentum signals reinforce the need for a decisive break above 2.0627 before considering bullish setups. A confirmed break and close above the level could open the door for longs targeting 2.0859, the swing high from March 2020, with a stop beneath to protect against reversal.
A failure at 2.0627 could see the setup flipped, with shorts established beneath the level and a stop above for protection. The initial downside target would be uptrend support, currently around 2.0425.
Good luck!
DS
AVAX Long TriggerAVAXUSDT | Long Trigger Setup 🚀
AVAX is forming a bullish structure on the 15-minute timeframe, respecting an ascending trendline while consolidating near key resistance levels. The price is currently finding support at $18.67, where buyers have stepped in multiple times, indicating demand.
A breakout above $19.06 (previous resistance) could confirm a continuation towards higher levels, with the next major target at $19.79.
🔹 Technical Analysis:
✅ Ascending Trendline Support: Higher lows suggest bullish momentum.
✅ EMA Alignment: Price is interacting with the 7, 25, and 99 EMAs, signaling potential upside if reclaimed.
✅ Volume Analysis: Increasing volume on green candles suggests accumulation.
📊 Key Levels:
🔹 Immediate Support: $18.67
🔹 Breakout Resistance: $19.06
🔹 Major Target: $19.79
🔹 Trendline Support: Holding structure above $18.67
🚀 Long Setup Confirmation:
A break and retest of $19.06 with strong volume could confirm a bullish breakout, targeting $19.79. If buyers step in aggressively, momentum may push even higher.
🔻 Invalidation & Risk Management:
A break below $18.67 with volume could invalidate this setup.
A cautious stop-loss can be placed slightly below $18.67 to manage risk efficiently.
This setup offers a high-reward potential if conditions align, making it a strong long opportunity if executed correctly.
#AVAX #Crypto #Trading #LongSetup #Breakout #TechnicalAnalysis 🚀
Long trade
Pair USDCAD
Buyside trade
Mon 31st March 25
5.00 pm (NY Time)
NY Session PM
Structure - (Day)
Entry 4Ht TF
Entry 1.43382
Profit level 1.47241 (2.69%)
Stop level 1.42525 (0.60%)
RR 4.5
Buyside trade idea:
Reason: Break of channel to the upside
Indicators: WMA (100) EMA (50) observed as additional bias
BTC is expected to hit 85000-86000 again, or even higherBTC has once again built a strong double bottom structural support in the 82000-81000 zone. BTC is likely to continue to rise. Once it breaks through the short-term resistance area near 83600, BTC may usher in a wave of accelerated rise and has the potential to continue to the 85000-86000 zone.
So we can still go long on BTC in the 82500-81500 zone. In addition, once BTC rises as expected, it is likely to grab the market share of gold, so it may also accelerate the decline of gold to a certain extent. This is a point we must be careful about next.
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USDCHF SHORT Market structure bearish DH
Entry at Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 0.88500
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Levels 3.74
Entry 90%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
Short gold, pullback to 3110-3095 zoneToday gold rebounded sharply after falling back to around 3076. The current highest rebound is around 3128. The current highest rebound is around 3128. Although part of the reason is due to the support of the market's risk aversion, I think it is more of a catharsis of the market's bullish sentiment.
So at this time, we should not chase long gold; because with the sharp rebound of gold, the risk of going long is gradually accumulating; secondly, we can refer to the trend of silver. After reaching the high point, it has begun to fall. I think gold may refer to the trend of silver and choose to fall in the short term.
Therefore, in terms of short-term trading, you may wish to consider shorting gold in the 3125-3135 zone, and the 3105-3095 zone is the first focus of our attention to long gold levels after a short-term correction.
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Silver Price Analysis – Key Support and Resistance LevelsSilver on a 1-hour timeframe. The analysis highlights key market structures:
Downtrend Channel: Initially, the price was in a downward-sloping channel (green-highlighted area).
Breakout and Uptrend: The price broke out of the bearish channel, forming an uptrend.
Resistance and Support Levels:
The resistance trendline (black) acted as a price ceiling where sellers emerged.
The support level (blue) helped buyers regain control, leading to price continuation.
Current Setup:
The price is consolidating around the 34.1120 level after testing the 34.5000 mark.
A potential bullish breakout or retracement towards support could be expected.
This analysis is useful for traders looking to identify trend reversals, breakout opportunities, or support and resistance confirmations.
Note: This is not a trading signal, just my personal analysis based on current market trends.
LTR longs potential-IS price retesting demand zone in the future? price allowing good r/r ratio LTF analysis could be seen as exhausted sellers.
-remember its only revisiting zone ATM
-confirmed buyers will show bullish PA if its ready or NOT we still need multiple things down here to confluence before entering in ..
-zones are only zones when there's reactions
- price structure has to play out firstly
-stay unbias with no emotions.
My NEUTRAL status until PA presents THEN TURNING shlong.
Russell 2000: Squeeze Potential BuildsWith uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy about to be resolved and price signals turning bullish, the ingredients for a squeeze in Russell 2000 futures are now in place.
Unlike other stock indices with far larger constituents, U.S. small caps have lagged this week’s rebound—potentially due to recession concerns, which wouldn’t help unprofitable cyclical firms tied to the broader economy.
However, while fundamentals point to downside risks, recent price signals have been more constructive. Monday’s hammer candle formed after a reversal from known support. While Tuesday’s doji signaled indecision, it still closed slightly higher, with strong volumes going through.
While signals like RSI (14) and MACD remain in negative territory, bearish momentum is starting to ebb, suggesting we may be in the early stages of a turn.
Those considering bullish positions could look to establish entries above 1994.8 with a stop beneath for protection. Rallies over the past two sessions have fizzled around 2040, making that an initial focal point. If sellers there are overrun, it could encourage others to join the move, looking for a retest of horizontal resistance at 2132.5.
Good luck!
DS
EUR/HUF: Positioning for a Probable Bullish Trend ShiftBig Picture Context
Currencies, like any market, move in cycles driven by macroeconomic forces, capital flows, and investor psychology. The EUR/HUF exchange rate has been in an uptrend since mid-2023, reflecting a broader structural shift. The key question now is whether this trend continues or if we see a meaningful reversal.
Looking at the data, we see that price has pulled back to a critical support zone (396-402 HUF). This is where buyers previously stepped in, making it a high-probability area for renewed strength. Meanwhile, resistance levels exist at 409.5 HUF, 411.75 HUF, and 420.53 HUF, with an ultimate target near 434.45 HUF.
What the Market Is Telling Us
Liquidity & Positioning: A volume spike signals increased market activity. This is often a sign that larger players are repositioning.
Momentum & Trend: Higher lows and price support at moving averages indicate that bullish sentiment remains intact.
Sentiment & Reflexivity: If buyers step in at support, it could reinforce the uptrend, drawing in more participants and accelerating price movement.
Game Plan: Managing Risk & Reward
Entry Zone: 396-402 HUF (buy into strength if support holds).
Profit Targets:
First milestone: 409.5 HUF (short-term test of resistance).
Second milestone: 420.5 HUF (trend continuation).
Final milestone: 434.5 HUF (full breakout scenario).
Stop-Loss: Below 382 HUF, where the bullish thesis breaks down.
Principles Applied
Markets are a function of supply and demand, shaped by human behavior. We’re looking at probabilities, not certainties. The key is risk-adjusted decision-making—placing asymmetric bets where upside outweighs downside. If the support holds, the next move up is likely. If it fails, we step aside and reassess.
BTC/USDT 15-Minute Chart Analysis🚀 BTC/USDT 15-Minute Chart Analysis 🏆
🔍 Market Overview:
The chart shows Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) price action on a 15-minute timeframe with key resistance & support levels, along with potential trade triggers.
📌 Key Observations:
📈 Strong Resistance (🚧 85,339.85 USDT)
🔥 Major hurdle for buyers! A breakout above this could ignite a rally.
🚀 If BTC closes above this level with volume, we might see a strong uptrend.
🛑 Important Support (🔵 84,727.22 - 84,912.40 USDT)
🛡️ Holding this zone is crucial for bulls to maintain momentum.
❌ Losing this support could trigger a bearish move.
📊 Moving Averages (7, 25, 99 SMA):
🟡 Short-Term SMA (7): Price is testing this moving average.
🔵 Medium-Term SMA (25): Acting as dynamic support.
🟢 Long-Term SMA (99): Still bullish, showing an uptrend bias.
⚡ Trade Triggers:
✅ Long Trigger (📈💰) - If BTC breaks 85,339.85 USDT with volume → 🚀 BUY Opportunity!
❌ Short Trigger (📉🔻) - If BTC drops below 84,727.22 USDT → 🏴☠️ Short setup possible!
📢 Trading Strategy:
💎 Bullish Plan: Watch for a breakout above 85,339.85 USDT with strong volume → 🎯 Targets: 85,500+ USDT.
⚠️ Bearish Plan: If BTC breaks below 84,727.22 USDT, look for a drop to 84,498.52 USDT or lower.
🔥 Final Thoughts:
Bitcoin is in a critical decision zone! 🎯 Breakout = Bullish Rally! ❌ Breakdown = Bearish Move!
📢 Stay Alert! Volume Confirmation is Key! 🎯
CHFJPY: Move Down Ahead! 🇨🇭🇯🇵
CHFJPY broke and closed below a key daily horizontal support.
We see a strong bearish reaction to that after its retest.
I think that the pair will drop and reach at least 168.75 support soon.
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Short trade
Day TF overview
Sellside trade
Mon 31st March 25
5.00 pm (NY Time)
NY Session AM
Structure Day
Entry 4Hr
Entry 0.62668
Profit level 0.61308 (2.17%)
Stop level 0.63038 (0.59%)
RR 3.68
Reason: WMA (100) and EMA (50)
Observed for sellside directional bias
along with the price failing to make a
higher high.
Target 0.382 (PD Array)
4Hr TF overview
Short trade
Day TF overview
Sellside trade
Fri 28th March 25
9.00 am (NY Time)
NY Session AM
Structure Day
Entry 4Hr
Entry 194.679
Profit level 192.079 (1.34%)
Stop level 195.101 (0.22%)
RR 6.16
Reason: Trade Rationale:
PD Array for Bias & Price Range:
Using the Premium/Discount (PD) Array, suggesting entry from a premium zone for a short trade.
The bias aligns with sell-side liquidity targeting the double button (liquidity pool) on the day TF.
Short gold, profit target: 500pipsAfter reaching a fresh high of 3150, gold pulled back and has since been consolidating in a narrow range around 3132. While there is no denying that gold remains in a strong bullish trend, I believe it is now at its peak and could top out at any moment. This is why I continue to look for shorting opportunities rather than blindly chasing long positions—because I must first evaluate whether I have the risk tolerance to withstand a potential long-side drawdown.
Currently, gold is showing signs of exhaustion, retreating from 3150 and stalling near its ascending trend channel resistance. There is a strong possibility that this marks the end of the parabolic uptrend, leading to a rounded top correction, similar to the previous price cycle. A potential retracement zone aligns with a $50 pullback.
From a risk management perspective, going long at elevated levels presents significant challenges in setting a stop-loss (SL). A tight SL increases the probability of being stopped out due to market volatility, while a wider SL or no SL at all could expose long positions to severe drawdowns or liquidation if the market collapses.
On the contrary, short positions allow for better-defined SL placement, and gold tends to correct sharply after an extended rally, offering favorable exit opportunities. The worst-case scenario for short sellers is missing out on further upside gains, but in return, we significantly reduce the risk of capital destruction. This is the primary reason why I remain firmly bearish on gold at current levels!
Gold has retreated from its 3150 high, showing signs of momentum exhaustion. Given this price action, traders can consider initiating short positions within the 3135-3145 zone, aiming for a pullback toward the 3100 level. This setup offers a potential $50 profit per trade.
GBPJPY Sell idea/analysis On the 4-hour timeframe, we can see a downtrend forming by having a Lower high and a low that has been broken, and I can see a rejection off of the low that can be a confirmation for a downtrend to shape. The uptrend trendline is broken, and the downtrend trendline has been respected so far, so these are enough confirmations for me to take this trade.
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Long trade
Day Tf overview
Pair GBPUSD
Buyside trade
Mon 31st March 25
9.00 am (NY Time)
NY Session AM
Structure Day
Entry 4Hr
Entry 1.29046
Profit level 1.29691 (0.50%)
Stop level 1.28968 (0.06%)
RR 8.27
Reason:
The buyside trade idea is
based on the supply and
demand narrative...
Observed Sun 29th March 25.
Entry reached Mon 31st 9.00 am (NY time)
4Hr TF overview
W14 Daily Edge – Play Likelihood ThesisMomentum structure. Strong weekly open. Large Initial Balance. Breakout bias remains dominant unless we hit exhaustion.
🔭 Likely Play Occurrences
✅ Clean breakout long – Very High
🟡 Rejection-and-hold near VAH – Moderate (watch for retest)
🟠 Failed breakout then rotation long – Low–Moderate
🔒 Shorts – Only valid after AWR High (3170) is hit
🎯 Key Reference Levels (W13 Context + W14 Targets)
W14 AWR High: 3170
50% AWR Target: 3134
W13 High: 3086
W13 VAH: 3046
W13 POC: 3016
W13 VAL: 3004
W13 Low: 3002
Holding structure above 3046 keeps breakout thesis alive. Watching for reaction near 3134 and exhaustion into 3170. Shorts only considered above AWR.
Multiple top signs appear, short gold!Although gold rebounded quickly after hitting 3100, it does not rule out the process of testing and confirming the top. I think that in the short term, we can still short gold in batches with the help of 3025-3035 zone suppression. Then wait patiently for gold to retrace!
If gold can fall below the 3100-3095 zone during the decline, gold may accelerate downward to the area around 3085 under the stimulation of selling. Let us wait and see!
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