GOLD (XAUUSD): Your Trading Plan for Monday
Gold went strongly rejected from a key daily support on Friday.
Your confirmation signal for a pullback trade from that will
be a bullish breakout and an hourly candle close above
3283 intraday resistance.
After that the price will likely reach 3292 level.
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Candlestick Analysis
Last week of June EU outlookWeekly forecast for EU. We have seen a very bullish June so far. We approached a weekly POI before starting to consolidate.
We are now entering the last week of the month where the monthly candle's upper wick needs to be formed.
In this video I have identified a potential area where we could see the pullback take place.
Medium to long term targets for Nifty. We have used parallel channel and Fibonacci retracement on Nifty weekly chart to gauge medium to long term targets for Nifty.
The Fibonacci retracement points out that the support for Nifty will remain at 25233(Fibonacci Support and mid channel support), 23903 (Important Fibonacci support), 23774 (Important Mother line support or 50 weeks EMA, channel bottom support). Nifty can go below these levels only in situation of another major global event or some major local event. If we get a closing below 23774 the Bear will be in commanding situation and will have the power to take Nifty further down towards 21743 which was the recent low we reached during Indo-Pak conflict.
The resistances for Nifty now are at 26277 (Major Resistance, Previous All Time high of Nifty), The next leap of faith for Nifty can be towards 27665 after we get a closing above 26277. (This will be a major hurdle and in next 1 year or so it is highly unlikely that we will cross this level unless we hit a euphoria zone.) This zone is also the current channel top zone. In very unlikely circumstance of Nifty crossing 27665 the next target for Nifty will be at 29539. (This looks possible in 18 to 24 months). We will be very lucky to reach this zone earlier. You never say never in the market.
As of now the local factors remain optimistic but there is a concern by experts related to valuation of market. As the Nifty PE currently is around 23. The results in the next couple of quarters will determine if Bull market stays active.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Gold – Can It Recover From 3 Week LowsGold is back in focus this morning after it fell to a 3 week low at 3287 in early European trading.
Part of the reason for the fall may have been the on-going ceasefire agreement holding between Israel and Iran, which can reduce the need for Gold as a safe haven, or prices may have been influenced by comments from US Commerce Secretary Lutnick made to Bloomberg TV overnight which suggested that the Trump administration have plans to reach agreements with a set of 10 major trading partners ahead of the July 9th pause deadline to reinstate higher tariffs.
Of course, these potential Gold negatives need to be balanced against the potential positives of increased optimism in recent days that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by more than expected into the end of 2025 as the US economy stalls, and the US dollar printing a fresh 3 year low yesterday.
Looking forward, the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE Index at 1330 BST later today could hold the key to whether Gold falls below support to even lower levels (see technical section below) or moves back higher again into Friday’s close.
Whatever the outcome, its setting up for an interesting end of the week for Gold.
Technical Update:
With selling pressure developing in Gold again so far this morning, traders might well be searching for next support levels that may be successful in limiting current price declines, or if broken, could in turn lead to a more extended phase of weakness.
Much will depend on future price trends and market sentiment, but as the chart above shows, latest price activity is this morning posting new 3-week lows for Gold. This suggests traders might now be focused on 3245, equal to the last correction low in price posted on May 29th as the next possible support level.
While not a guarantee of further declines if broken, 3245 closing breaks could lead to further price weakness towards 3120, the May 15th downside extreme.
Of course, it is possible this 3245 low does continue to act as support to price weakness and may turn activity higher again. However, if this is to lead to a more sustained period of price strength, resistance might now stand at 3356.
Equal to the Bollinger mid-average, closing breaks might be required to suggest possibilities to resume price strength back towards the 3435/3452 May 6th and June 16th price failure highs.
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Long trade
30sec TF entry
📍 Pair: USDJPY
📅 Date: Thursday, June 26, 2025
🕒 Time: 4:15 AM (London Session AM)
⏱ Time Frame: 15min
📈 Direction: Buyside
📊 Trade Breakdown:
Metric Value
Entry Price 143.803
Profit Level 144.825 (+0.71%)
Stop Loss 143.733 (−0.05%)
Risk-Reward
Ratio 14.6 : 1
🧠 Context / Trade Notes
🔄 15 Minute Structure Support:
The trade was based on a reactive low from the 5-minute TF, aligning with a buy-side imbalance zone formed on the 5-minute chart (Monday, 16th June, 10:00 AM).
📉 RSI in Low Region:
RSI was observed in an oversold condition on LTFs, providing additional confluence for a short-term reversal setup.
30sec TF entry overview
Gold Fails to Hold the Fear – Ceasefire Triggers 500+ Pip DropIn yesterday’s analysis, I pointed out that despite the weekend escalation in the middle-east, which triggered a gap up in Gold, the price action didn’t confirm the fear narrative. Gold failed to hold its gains – a clear sign of weakness.
📌 What happened next?
Throughout the day, Gold attempted multiple pushes toward 3400 – but each effort was met with strong selling pressure.
Then came the ceasefire announcement… and Gold dropped hard, now trading around 3320, locking in over 500 pips of profit from my short setup.
________________________________________
❓ More importantly, what’s next for Gold?
More important than the short-term noise is what the charts are now telling us:
📉 Weekly chart? Bearish.
🕯️ Daily chart? Also turned bearish after last week’s indecisive price action.
________________________________________
📌 Strategy remains the same:
I continue to sell rallies, and I’m now watching the 3280 support zone for a possible test in the coming hours.
Patience. Discipline. Let the market come to you. 🚀
Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
USDCAD: Very Bearish PatternThe USDCAD has created a head and shoulders pattern at a significant intraday horizontal resistance.
A bearish breakout from this neckline indicates strong selling pressure, suggesting that the pair is likely to continue declining, potentially reaching at least the 1.3600 level.
Waiting for data release to rebound and short📰 Impact of news:
1. PCE and Consumer Index
📈 Market analysis:
The current price of 3280 has a higher profit and loss ratio advantage. Technical indicators show that the hourly chart is severely oversold. Combined with the top and bottom conversion of 3300 above, there is a 20-point rebound space in the short term. If the PCE data is in line with the trend, gold prices are expected to quickly regain the 3,300 mark. Note that negative data beyond expectations may cause a brief decline.
🏅 Trading strategies:
BUY 3295-3280-3275
TP 3298-3300-3310
SELL 3300-3310
TP 3290-3280-3260-3250
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
XAU/USD 27 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Following previous high, and printing of bearish CHoCH, price has pulled back to an M15 supply zone, where we are currently seeing a reaction. Therefore, I shall now confirm internal high.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
EURCAD: Pullback Trade From Support 🇪🇺🇨🇦
EURCAD is going to bounce from a recently broken
key daily horizontal resistance that turned into support after a violation.
The price violated a neckline of a double bottom pattern with
a bullish imbalance candle on an hourly time frame as a confirmation.
Goal - 1.5998
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Analysis and layout of the latest gold trends during the day📰 Impact of news:
1. PCE and Consumer Index
📈 Market analysis:
Judging from the 4H chart, the Bollinger Bands are closing and the MACD is showing a trend of forming a death cross, indicating that the short-selling momentum is still relatively strong in the short term. However, as the overall upward structure has not been destroyed, there is still a possibility of a rebound and repair in the future. During the day, we need to pay special attention to the support strength of the MA5 and MA10 moving averages. It is recommended to adopt the idea of shorting at high levels and going long at low levels. The key support below is the 3305-3295 area, and the upper resistance is the 3340-3350 range. However, judging from the chart, in the short term, there may be a rebound near 3313. At present, it has indeed rebounded to around 3319 as expected. If it falls weakly to this week's low of 3295, you can buy if it does not break. On the whole, if it rebounds to 3335-3345, you can consider shorting, and if the support below 3305-3295 is not broken, go long. Today is Friday, and as it is near the end of the month, market liquidity is strong. Please be cautious in your operations today and be sure to set stop losses strictly.
🏅 Trading strategies:
SELL 3335-3345-3350
TP 3320-3315-3300
BUY 3305-3295
TP 3310-3320-3330
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
Bulls and bears are anxious? Rebound continues to empty📰 Impact of news:
1. Initial unemployment claims data
📈 Market analysis:
Gold is in a sideways consolidation near 3320 in the short term. The market has no clear direction for the time being, and the long and short positions are in a tug-of-war. The hourly line rebounded to 3328 and then fell back again, suggesting that there is still room for short-term retracement. The current operation needs to focus on key points: if it rebounds to the 3320-3330 resistance area, you can consider entering short positions again. If the market continues to decline, focus on the 3300-3290 support range. If it stabilizes, long orders can be arranged. The overall idea is to maintain a volatile market. Before effectively breaking through 3350 or falling below 3290, high-altitude and low-multiple is still the main strategy.
🏅 Trading strategies:
SELL 3320-3330
TP 3310-3300-3290
BUY 3310-3300
TP 3320-3330-3340
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
Seize the rebound opportunity and prepare to short goldGold continued to rebound as expected and has now extended to above 3340. In the short term, it tends to fluctuate and rise. In the previous trading idea overnight, I emphasized that everyone should not take the risk of shorting gold near 3330. Now it seems that this reminder is completely necessary. Although gold continues to rebound, the overall performance of the bulls is still not strong, and the upper side is still under pressure in the 3350-3360-3370 area. So I still advocate that you can consider shorting gold in the 3350-3360 area after the rebound.
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Gold fluctuates at high levels, intraday trading points📰 Impact of news:
1. Initial unemployment claims data
📈 Market analysis:
Gold has begun to show signs of bottoming out in the short term in the past two days. Since the daily line bottomed out and pulled up, the daily line closed positive yesterday, and the bulls began to counterattack, and the 1H low was rising. If it doesn't fall further in the short term, it will most likely bottom out and rebound. The upper pressure is at the Bollinger middle track of 3355, which is also the high point of Tuesday's decline. If gold breaks and stabilizes at this price, it will have a larger upward space, and the upper side will look at 3385. In the 4H chart, MACD temporarily forms a golden cross, which is a bullish signal; but the BOLL track pressure is still there, and gold bears still have momentum in the short term. Therefore, on the whole, in the short term, gold should pay attention to the 3350-3360 resistance above. If it encounters resistance under pressure here, it can consider shorting. Pay attention to the 3330-3320 support area below.
🏅 Trading strategies:
SELL 3350-3360
TP 3340-3330-3320
BUY 3330-3320
TP 3340-3350
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
XAUUSD Daily Analysis
Gold is currently trading at a premium level after rejecting recent highs. The market is showing signs of weakness with a series of lower highs, suggesting a potential retracement. A key level to watch for a possible reaction or turnaround is around $3,225, which aligns with previous structural support and falls near the discount zone of the recent range. If price reaches this area, it could offer a favorable risk-reward opportunity for buyers depending on the reaction.