Update on last $ICP chartCRYPTOCAP:ICP just closed with a perfect engulfing candle on the 4h in a very important zone of interest. Short term bullish, which could also flip longer term bullish. See levels above.
Candlestick Analysis
EURUSD BEARISH CONFIRMATION SETUPPrice did not go into the order block marked out but that is alright. Price broke the 2H high creating a new range then broke below giving a signal that price wants to continue lower.
Expecting that price will continue going lower from the fair value gap or from the order block marked out.
Buy gold first, then short gold at the right timeBros, after reaching the 2622 level, gold has gradually pulled back and is now trading near 2600. Fortunately, we managed to capture the short-term peak and closed our long positions near 2622, successfully locking in profits.
However, following the pullback, I have re-entered long positions in gold. I initiated a buy position around 2606, and as gold dipped further to approximately 2600, I added to my position with the same lot size. The psychological support level at 2600 remains a critical threshold, and it’s unlikely to be decisively breached in the short term during the market’s tug-of-war. Therefore, gold bulls may recover some ground during this phase, which is why I remain committed to taking long positions in the short term.
That said, given the strength of bearish momentum as gold declines, expectations for the rebound’s upside potential should be adjusted downward to the 2610-2615 range. If gold’s momentum remains weak after testing this range, we can then consider initiating short positions once again.
Bros, are you bullish on gold rebounding and regaining some lost ground? If you want to learn more detailed trading ideas and get more trading signals, you can choose to join the channel at the bottom of the article to make trading no longer difficult and make making money a pleasure!
Bearish hammer on 6M chartI sold all of my AMEX:SILJ last week, which I'd typically wait for the yearly candle to close but it seemed like it was barely holding on by a thread and might not wait the few more days. Then the bottom completely fell out this morning. Whew, close call
The 6M candle looks like death. I'm still very bullish on silver as a LT play but I don't want to be out on the edge of the risk curve while the market pukes. Next major support is around $6.
Nifty Index about to witness Quarterly Bearish Engulfing4 and a half years from April 2020, it has been a euphoric ride for India's Nifty and Sensex.
If prices remain more or less unchanged by New Year's Eve, we're about to witness a once in 5 year event on the charts. A "quarterly bearish engulfing" at all time highs. In simpler terms, quarterly prices closing below the lowest price of previous quarter.
What has happened in the past when this happened?
This happened last in 2020 (the deep red pandemic candle) - where 15 quarters or nearly 4 years of gain was wiped out in a single quarter.
Before that, it happened in 2015 - where it took 3 quarters to wipe out 4 quarters or 1 year worth of gain. (Indicating more of a systemic sell-off, than a knee-jerk news based panic. Something similar is happening now, after a long long time.)
2015, then 2020, and now 2024-25. For those who understand time cycles in nature and its inevitable influence on our nature, and thus the markets, you'd appreciate this is no co-incidence.
There is no reason to panic, as this, just like any other event, presents an opportunity to grow wealth.
Before you read further, I intend to keep this idea beginner friendly on how to potentially benefit from this opportunity. It can form a base for you to navigate your personal finance journey further. Intermediate and advanced traders/investors may benefit from my other (future) posts. Kindly note that this published note is only my opinion, solely for educational purposes, and not investment advice.
Through the remainder of this piece, I will waltz you through the most probable outcomes and the possible decisions one may take, all assuming that you're relatively new to witnessing a systematic sell-offs.
Understanding the logic of a bearish engulfing pattern:
First - What a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on a quarterly time frame means is that
for 1 whole quarter, there was a net gain (July-Sept2024 = +7.5%) and the lowest price was 23893.7; whilst immediately for next 1 whole quarter (Oct- 30Dec2024 = -8.49%) we can see a net loss. Not only do we see a net loss, but also most importantly, we see quarter price "closing" lower than the "lowest" price of previous quarter . This is powerful information as it indicates that buyers have "failed to remain in strength" even at the lowest price of the previous quarter (Understand that the lowest price of previous quarter is where the buyers were the most powerful in that quarter, that is why it was the "lowest" price of that quarter because the price went up from there). For reference, see the feature image of this post again.
What does this mean for the next few weeks/months/quarters: (The most probably outcomes)
1) Normally, a bearish engulfing pattern at the top of the charts indicates end of an existing up-trend. When this happens in a higher time frame (weekly/monthly/quarterly), it is more reliable.
2) End of an existing up-trend indicates beginning of a new opposite trend. An opposite trend can either be sideways or downside. This depends on further reaction from market forces in the coming days. We can see that after the pandemic quarterly crash, we had no opposite trend, in fact, there was an immediate rebound. This was an exception as pandemic market crash was a 1 time panic-led sell-off rather than a systemic sell off (which is more sustainable time-wise).
3) We are highly likely in a systemic sell off now, if this quarter's low is taken out in January. This is the highest likely scenario after a 4.5 years of euphoric uptrend in the market.
How to benefit in the following weeks/months:
The simplest way with minimal to moderate time investment, is to begin SIP in fundamentally strong "value" stocks, or the index itself, or both - in a "pyramid" fashion.
Once you select the stocks, pyramiding your investment amount - that is, starting small at current levels and scaling up your investment as you get better prices when Nifty (or your cherry picked stocks) fall further.
A simple way to apply it is to buy whenever price is near the Moving Averages (MA) of 55 weeks, 89 weeks and 233 weeks - as the index continues in a down trend in the following weeks/months. You can plot these on Tradingview with ease. Remember to plot on weekly time frame. Buy lower multiples at 55 MA, higher at 89 MA and even higher at 233 MA.
This is a simple, more optimised way of buying the index fund which can help you get higher ROI as compared to someone making SIP on a fixed date every month. This is because your average buy price will be lower than someone buying the same quantity at random prices every month.
Yet another way is to learn the skill of selling index call options by hedging them. Even though this is a slightly advance way of generating extra income, it is great to learn in downtrending markets - as you will be able to generate profits from a decline in the price of index (remember it is a lot more difficult to generate profits from individual stocks and investments in a broader down-trending market). A realistic expectation for beginners can be making 1-3% a month with this technique (average annualised) - thus helping offset the loss in the existing stocks/MF portfolio.
If this sounds difficult, yet another way is assessing the hygiene of your portfolio and rejig the holdings if needed. Without proper knowledge, it is best to let a qualified financial advisor/expert review your holdings/portfolio and see if they want to re-shuffle the portfolio. This could even mean reducing exposure to equity for a period of 1 year, and increase exposure to debt funds or other fixed income avenues, or simply sitting on some % cash to buy at a later, better value. Whilst this sounds too much work, remember that a mere 4-5% extra gain for the entire year, every year, compounds to a large number over the years. So entrusting a reliable financial advisor to do this could be worth your time and resources. Now is a good time to do that.
Disclaimer:
This is my personal opinion and is only for educational purposes. Please consult your financial advisor before making any decision. Stock Market investments are subject to market risk. Past performances are no guarantee of future returns.
This content above is solely for educational purposes only and to provide information and is not intended to give any advice. Information shared is personal opinions only. Wherever any stock or mutual fund name is mentioned, this is only for educational and informational purposes. Share market and investment can be risky, please take professional advice before making any decision.
TSM Showing Solid Support At The 20 Day Moving AverageTSM with support off the 20 day but can it hold?
You can start a position here if you like low risk/high reward trades. A stop at the low of the day is <1% risk.
If I was taking this trade I'd wait for it to take out the high of the day and I'd open a 1/4 full size position. Or better yet I'd wait to see if it holds support today and then buy on a follow through tomorrow.
Current market conditions are gloomy so I'm not taking this entry. Let's see what happens tomorrow.
Strategy 2025. BTC Airless Scenario Below $100'000 Choking PointThe crypto market is flashing a worrying outlook for 2025, since a disappointing Santa Claus rally this year could deepen issues.
This is especially important if BTC will not be able to finish the year 2024 firmly above $100'000 per coin.
The financial market has had a tough week, but it might also be in store for a tough year in 2025.
The market is on track for its worst weeks over years after the Federal Reserve gave a hawkish forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025. But looking at the market's internals, it's clear that damage had been inflicted well before the Fed's Wednesday meeting—and the signal is a historic indicator of tough times ahead.
The number of stocks in Top Stock Club S&P 500 that are declining outpaced advancing stocks for 14 consecutive days on Thursday.
The advancing/declining data helps measure underlying participation in market moves, and the recent weakness signals that even though the S&P 500 is only off 4% from its record high, there's damage under the hood of the benchmark index.
This is evidenced by the equal-weighted S&P 500 index being off 7% from its record high.
According to Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research, the 14-day losing streak for the S&P 500's advance-decline line is the worst since October 15, 1978.
Clissold said 10-day losing streaks or more in advancing stocks relative to declining stocks can be a bad omen for future stock market returns.
While this scenario has only been triggered six times since 1972, it shows lackluster forward returns for the S&P 500. The index has printed an average six-month forward return of 0.1% after these 10-day breadth losing streaks flashed, compared to the typical 4.5% average gain seen during all periods.
"Studies with six cases hardly make for a strategy. But market tops have to start somewhere, and many begin with breadth divergences, or popular averages posting gains with few stocks participating," Clissold said.
Perhaps more telling for the stock market is whether it can stage a recovery as it heads into one of the most bullish seasonal periods of the year: the Santa Claus trading window.
If it can't, that would be telling, according to Clissold.
"A lack of a Santa Claus Rally would be concerning not only from a seasonal perspective, but it would allow breadth divergences to deepen," the strategist said.
Also concerning to Clissold is investor sentiment, which has flashed signs of extreme optimism since September. According to the research firm's internal crowd sentiment poll, it is in the seventh-longest stretch in the excessive optimism zone, based on data since 1995.
"Several surveys have reached what could be unsustainable levels," Clissold said, warning that any reversal in sentiment could be a warning sign for future market returns.
Ultimately, continued stock market weakness, especially in the internals, would suggest to Clissold that 2025 won't be as easy as 2024 for investors.
"If the stock market cannot rectify recent breadth divergences in the next few weeks, it would suggest our concerns about a more difficult 2025 could come to fruition," the strategist said.
Moreover, Dow Jones index has printed recently The Three Black Crows Bearish candlestick pattern, on weekly basis.
This is especially important, since mentioned above pattern is massively unwinding from Dow's all the history highs.
Previously this pattern has already appeared in TVC:DJI in November 2021 and lead to 20 percent decline in 2022 for Dow Jones Index and to more than 70 percent decline in BTC.
The Three Black Crows Bearish candlestick pattern also has appeared in Dow Jones Index in September, 2018 (lead to 18% decline) and in July, 2007 (lead to more than 50% decline).
The main technical graph represents a Choking Strategy for BTC in 2025, i.e. BTC airless scenario below $100'000 choking point.
The epic 52-week SMA breakthrough in BTC will definitely accelerate a decline at all.
LINK H&S potentialCOINBASE:LINKUSD has a well defined head & shoulders forming. Around 19.90 is the key level to watch here as it would confirm the H&S and also invalidate the bullish pinbar that formed on Dec. 20th. The target for this pattern is around 13.50. Major support also sits at around 9.50, so I consider the support zone essentially being anywhere between 9.50-13.50. This would be an attractive area to start looking at going long again.
Nifty analysis for intraday 31/12/2024.Nifty has been trading in a range for the last 7 trading sessions.
Index is trading around the 20 EMA and giving sharp recovery on both sides.
Today it has closed below the moving averages. If the market starts trading below the No trading zone, bearish entry can be created for next support levels.
On the upper side the break out 23900 can clear the round number figure and test the Daily 20 EMA.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the trade.
Gold rebounded as expected. Did you follow me to buy gold?Bros, as I mentioned in my previous article, if gold continues to narrow its fluctuations during the downtrend, it is highly likely to find support again in the 2610-2605 zone, followed by a rebound. Currently, gold is performing exactly as I anticipated—after touching 2609 twice, it successfully halted the decline and has since rebounded, with gold currently trading around 2617.
Based on the current structure of gold, it is fully capable of attempting another push toward the 2620-2630 region. If the upward momentum continues strongly, a breakout above the 2635 level could trigger a further attempt to reach the 2640-2650 zone. I have already executed long positions near 2611 and 2610, in line with my trading strategy, and I am currently sitting on a relatively good profit. Let’s see how far this rebound can take gold!
Bros, have you followed my lead and gone long on gold? If you want to learn more detailed trading strategies and receive additional trade signals, you can join the channel at the bottom of the article. Let’s make trading easier and turning profits into a pleasure!
Nifty after multiple efforts not able to close above 23900.Nifty again tried to climb up and made a high of 23915 however there was tremendous selling pressure at that level and not only it could not sustain 23900 but also it failed to sustain 23800 or even 23650 levs. Nifty closed at 23644 levels. This is a closing below the Father line (200 days EMA) which was at 23693. This closing is indicative of weakness. Shadow of the candle has turned negative as of now. There is a strong support at 23567. If this support is broken the door way towards 23273 or even 22800 will open up. Relative strength index is 37.40 and RSI support is at 30 and 27.54 levels. Incase of positive closing tomorrow which looks little difficult as of now the resistances will be at 23650, 23693 (Father Line), 23809, 23961 and finally 24159 and finally Mother line (50 Days EMA) Resistance at 24266.
So as of now it looks like we will have a modest close for the year. It has been an year for Nifty which Amplifies with 'what could have been'. Right now we are around 10% of the peak and at 9% yearly gains as compared to yearly closing. Hoping that law of averages catches up next year and we reach new highs next year and close the year robustly.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Buy gold with support as defenseBros, the trading journey for the new week starts from this moment.
Gold has gradually pulled back after reaching around 2638 and is currently testing the 2614 level. If the volatility of gold continues to narrow, I believe gold will find support once again in the 2610-2605 region and could potentially rebound back towards the 2620-2630 range. Therefore, in the short term, as long as gold remains above the 2610-2605 support zone, there is a good chance it will rebound again. So, for short-term trading, we can still consider going long on gold.
Bros, are you optimistic about the rebound of gold? If you want to learn more detailed trading ideas and get more trading signals, you can choose to join the channel at the bottom of the article to make trading no longer difficult and make making money a pleasure!
Long trade
15min TF overview
Buyside trade
Pair SOLUSDT
Tokyo to LND Session
2.00 am
Entry level 190.801
Profit level 194.866 (2.13%)
Stop level 189.918 (0.46%)
RR 4.6
Reason: According to mapping out supply and demand, the 15-minute TF price reached a pivotal demand zone indicative of a buyside trade.
GBPUSD SELL IDEAThere are 2 entries as can be seen in this chart. The first is for scalpers to sell before the end of the day. The second is the main sell. Market makers would play around the first sell, causing a consolidation there that would probably end the days trade. Before going to grab liquidity at the open inefficiency for the final sell. Both options are accurate, but you risk more if you are not a swing or day trader at the first entry
Long trade
2min TF Entry
Buyside trade
2min TF Entry
Sun 29th Dec 24
6.35 pm
NY to Tokyo Session PM
Entry 98.34
Profit level 102.65 (4.38%)
Stop level 97.74 (0.61%)
RR 7.18
Reason: Observering of price action since Sat the 28th and reaching a pivotal demand zone indicative of a buyside trade.
Actionable Gold insights: 30-Dec-2024Rise and shine, traders! Start your day with actionable Gold insights. Let's grow your skills together, one chart at a time.
