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Candlestick Analysis

Full Market post NFP Review: Pure Consolidation as expectedEverything seems to be at an inflection point with currencies taking the reigns for profitability 💪🏽 EU/GU are inversing the dollar really well as always with that strong direct correlation. This is why we at Hollywoood Trades believe in market diversity. It is good to understand what should happen and what will be the result of an out of sync indices and metal market vs. the currency direct correlation pairs. Share with someone in need of strong levels 🎯
FX:USOIL
by HollywooodTrades
Weekly Review – Week 10, Prepping for Week 11### **Weekly Review – Week 10, Prepping for Week 11** #### **Market Context: Higher Time Frames Still Bullish, But Short-Term Consolidation** - **Quarterly:** Q1 2025 remains in expansion mode, continuing the pattern of higher highs and higher lows over the last six quarters. Price is currently trading above Q4 2024, which acted as a stall candle—reinforcing that the **higher time frames remain in a bullish breakout phase**. - **Monthly:** February followed through with **bullish momentum**, closing above January’s high. However, the long wick to the upside signals **rejection of higher prices**. - **Monthly imbalance at 2780**, aligning with **October 2024's STH-HH at 2790**—a key **Point of Interest (POI)** for long setups if price retraces. #### **Weekly Chart: Defined Range & Potential for Deeper Pullback** - **Week 10 printed an inside bar**, following Week 9’s engulfing move—**creating both a swing high and swing low**. - **Weekly Equilibrium at 2745** – Optimal long positions may form below this level, providing a **higher probability setup in discount pricing**. - Given the defined range, this supports a case for **short-term shorts**, with **long setups likely to emerge at lower levels**. #### **Daily Chart: Expansion, Consolidation, Breakdown – Is 2830 Weak?** - **Recent Structure:** Price expanded, consolidated, and then broke down, forming a **swing low at 2830**. - This swing low **failed to push higher and take out 2955**, which would have confirmed continued bullish structure. - **Daily consolidation zone at 2935-2940** was the origin of the last **bearish expansion**. If price revisits this area, it becomes a **prime shorting opportunity**, targeting a break of 2830. - A break below **2830 confirms short-term bearish control**, increasing the probability of a move toward **weekly range equilibrium at 2750**. --- ### **Trading Plan for the Week Ahead** 🔹 **Short Bias Above Recent Swing High at 2930** - Looking for shorts within the **Daily Bearish POI (2935-2940)**. - If price rejects and moves down, **targets = 2830**, with potential for an extended move into **weekly equilibrium at 2750**. 🔹 **Longs Not Off the Table – But Caution Needed** - **Higher time frames remain bullish**, so we are not married to short positions. - If price shows **strong buying interest we will re-evaluate. 🔹 **Key Events to Watch in Week 11** - **CPI on Wednesday** and **PPI on Thursday** – These could be **major catalysts for volatility**. - **Post-NFP reaction was muted**, so we anticipate **stronger price moves following economic data this week**. --- ### **Execution Mindset: Trade the Plan, Stay in Control** 🚨 **No Bias Marriages – We Execute, Then Evaluate** - Every position is **planned, executed, and then reviewed**. - **If a setup fails, we adjust. If a setup succeeds, we analyze why.** 🎯 **Focus for March:** - **Refining the scaling-in model**—balancing profit-taking while managing drawdowns. - **Strengthening market structure analysis** across multiple time frames. - **Sticking to daily swing trades** at key reversal points (springs & upthrusts on lower time frames). 🔹 **Let’s see what price prints. We trade what we see, not what we expect.** #WeeklyReview #Trading #XAUUSD #PriceAction #HandDrawnCharts
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PipsnPaper
Maxi Cash Collect with Block and Unity Software: very last callThe certificate NLBNPIT1BVR9 is at its sunset but can still make a profit if you can handle stock volatility. Link to JustCertificate justcertificate.com Unity Software is the "worst of" with less than 20% margin above the coupon barrier. Unity Software specializes on gaming and VR software. Stock price and P/E have been low compared to competitors since 2022. The price reversed in July 2024 with a crescent min/max along the "classical" uphill trend line after breaching the two secondary POCs at 16 and 22 USD, indicating traders' interest in these prices. At 30 USD is the major POC. Price retreated from a weekly candle's attempt to break the major POC. This price level may act a strong resistence. Investing.com models value the stock at 28 USD. Block offers commerce and payments-focused professional & Commercial Services.After reaching the minimum price of 40 USD circa in August 2024, which is near the certificate coupon barrier, it is advancing along an ascending trend line and has broken the primary POC of 65 USD, but the psychological threshold of 100 USD is holding it back. Now it trades around the primary POC touching the trend line, which is crucial for future movements. At the moment of this post, the certificate is priced much below the parity at 79 Euro and expires on May 13th, with a potentially attractive profit of nearly 30% including a significant last coupon, assuming the certificate barrier is not breached. The investment's worth should be carefully considered because the very high volatility and beta-correlation (above 2) of the underlying stocks increase the risk of hitting the barrier at any time before expiration. A margin of 20% above the barrier may not be certain for such underlying stocks.
NYSE:ULong
by riccardo_duca