Risks gradually accumulate, and short gold in batchesAt present, the highest price of gold has reached around 3244, but it soon fell back to below 3240; and the PPI data is obviously bullish for gold, but gold has not shown a significant upward fluctuation, indicating that as gold rises sharply, market sentiment tends to be more cautious, so that liquidity is insufficient. So from this point of view, gold still has a need for a correction!
In the past three trading days, the increase in gold has reached $270. So even if gold remains strong at present, we should not blindly chase more gold. On the contrary, we can still gradually establish short positions in batches. As long as we strictly control the number of transactions in the transaction, we don’t have to worry too much about the transaction risk!
Let us wait patiently for the market to gradually accumulate risk sentiment. Once it accumulates to the critical point, it only takes one opportunity for gold to collapse soon.
Candlestick Analysis
GOLD (XAUUSD): One More ConsolidationSince Friday, Gold has been consolidating in a horizontal channel on an hourly chart.
If you are looking to buy Gold this week, wait for a breakout above the channel's resistance. It will initiate a movement higher, at least to 3260.
On the other hand, if there is a bearish breakout below the channel's support, this can trigger a local correctional movement, at least to 3190.
It is best to wait for a breakout for reliable confirmation before making any trades.
Long trade
1Hr TF overview
✅ Trade Breakdown – Buy-Side (AUD/USD)
📅 Date: Thursday, April 10, 2025
⏰ Time: 9:00 AM (NY Time) – London Session AM
📈 Pair: AUD/USD
🧭 Direction: Long (Buy)
📐 Structure TF: 1-Hour (Directional Bias)
🎯 Entry TF: 2-Minute (Precision Entry)
Trade Parameters:
Entry: 0.61804
Take Profit (TP): 0.63266 (+2.37%)
Stop Loss (SL): 0.61588 (–0.36%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 6.77 🔥
Reason: Being timed with London–NY overlap, the byuside trade idea is assumed prime territory for-accumulation > displacement > continuation > was the reason for entry and buyside directional bias.
DMP's long setupsRisk On approach with discounts ahead. win win ;)
- Technical Analysis is KEY with timing ..
-Both their charts AUD and NZD seem to be
cleanest dirty shirts in the wash.
- Fundamentals helped my confluence levels
-Retesting demand zone but price structure needs better PA within zone before triggering entry. Give it time for confirming our PA,
- Multiple t/fs helped
- AUD chart DMP is alot clearer with PA atm but also needing some more patience with data candles and still with dynamics before she sets sail as long term hold.
EurAud sell insight Price rejects an old weekly level 1.84352 clearing the previous week's high 1.82907 hence closing bearish.
Now I'm anticipating the previous week's low to be cleared so I'm bearish for the week 1.71115 (previous week low) as my draw of Liquidity 🧲
1.81291 and 1.84782 are my point of interest to short after getting confirmation
Kindly boost of you find this insightful 🫴
S&P500 INDEX (#US500): Intraday Bullish ConfirmationAfter a breakout of a key horizontal resistance,
📈US50P retested this level and then formed an ascending triangle pattern on a 4-hour time frame.
A bullish breach of the triangle's neckline is a key confirmation of buyer strength and suggests potential for a price increase to at least 5,500.
Why is BTC losing volume?!After establishing a new higher high on the rally, we have run into an old bearish zone from April 2nd and losing gas. This is about the end of this bullish cycle is seems and we are getting hourly chart candle indications of this.
As you see there is a small bit to go before we can establish ourselves back above the bearish fair value gap (balance).
Apparently this bearish FVG was still chock full of pending shorts. We are getting multiple failures to displace above highs I was triggered short.
As we close below the highest bullish candle, we should see a mass closing of longs from its low. First target is the inefficient range below (blue) around 84K
I believe we must go back to around the50% Fib retracement range as always and correct all imbalances and collect all lows within that range. Therefore I am short after the 11p candle pushed up out of the 10p candle but failed to close above.
As always I use failure displacement as a cue to look for a good LTF entry 🫡
4H Review shows massive bearish imbalance:
GBPAUD market outlookFX:GBPAUD
Price has reached and reacted off significant level of resistance zone at 2.16400, which was last seen on the 2nd of November 2015. On Friday's NY open, price created a false bullish signal with a 190 pips pin bar candle on the H1 chart. Instead, price reacted off its recent swap zone and continued its downtrend. If it breaks below 2.07720, we can anticipate a short-term continuous downtrend to the daily demand range, which is about 200 to 300 pip movement.
On the fundamentals, the Aussie dollar has recently hit a 5 year low against the USD, trading at just 60.5 US cents as the two world's largest economies have been ramping up tariffs to as high as 125%. The AUD may be impacted due to China being Australia's biggest trading partner and the trade war is only increasing uncertainty risks. On the bright side, the ASX 200 surged by 4.5% on a single day as Trump announces tariff pause, which was the highest increase in value on a single day ever since the pandemic in 2020. Both the UK and Australia have been imposed the same reciprocal tariff rates of 10%, for now, I expect a short-term downtrend before its continuation upwards, but we'll see what the coming week brings to us.
ANOTHER BULL RUN FOR BITCOINAs of April 12, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at approximately $84,892, reflecting a 1.5% increase as it attempts to break a three-month downtrend.
Several factors have contributed to Bitcoin's recent price surge:
1. U.S. Tariff Exemptions: The Trump administration's decision to exempt key tech products from reciprocal tariffs has alleviated trade tensions, boosting investor confidence in risk assets like Bitcoin.
2. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: The U.S. government's establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve signals institutional support for digital assets, enhancing market sentiment.
3. Market Dynamics: A significant amount of Bitcoin has been withdrawn from exchanges, indicating strong holding sentiment among investors. Additionally, a short squeeze has contributed to upward price momentum.
Finance Magnates
4. Global Adoption: Institutions like Lomond School in Scotland accepting Bitcoin for tuition fees reflect growing mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrency.
Latest news & breaking headlines
This could be the bull run we've all been waiting for.
$GLD - bullish momentum soon to stallHello, I was bullish on AMEX:GLD for a bit and now examining the charts, multiple frames, this may be setting up for a good short. If geopolitics and tariff talks deescalate then this should cool off. The Elliot wave placed indicates some time for a correction/pull back on this hot commodity and the candle on the Daily from Friday is a spinning stop doji which can indicate reversal in an uptrend. Also, we have so many gaps up that happened in 3 day span, crazy actually. I labeled areas of targets to fill these gaps. Expecting a retracement to $280.
WSL.
IDBI Bank Looking to make a comeback on Weekly Charts. IDBI Bank Ltd. engages in the provision of commercial banking services to retail and corporate customers. It operates through the following segments: Corporate and Wholesale Banking; Retail Banking; Treasury; and Other Banking and Group Operations. The Corporate and Wholesale Banking segment includes corporate relationship covering deposit and credit activities other than retail, as well as corporate advisory and syndication, project appraisal, and investment portfolio.
IDBI Bank Ltd. Closing price is 79.49. The positive aspects of the company are Attractive Valuation (P.E. = 11.9), Companies with Zero Promoter Pledge, Company able to generate Net Cash - Improving Net Cash Flow, Companies with Low Debt, Stocks Outperforming their Industry Price Change in the Quarter, FII / FPI or Institutions increasing their shareholding and MFs increased their shareholding last quarter The Negative aspects of the company is Companies with high market cap, lower public shareholding.
Entry can be taken after closing above 80 Historical Resistance in the stock will be 83.7, 88.1 and 92.1. PEAK Historic Resistance in the stock will be 95.6 and 99.3. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 65.4.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
BPCL looking strong on Weekly Charts. Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd. is a holding company, which engages in the business of refining of crude oil and marketing of petroleum products. It operates through the Downstream Petroleum and Exploration & Production (E&P) segment. The Downstream Petroleum segment includes the refining and marketing of petroleum products. The E&P segment focuses on hydrocarbons.
Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd. Closing price is 293.20. The positive aspects of the company are Very Attractive Valuation (P.E. = 9.3), Companies with reducing Debt, Companies with Zero Promoter Pledge, Stocks Outperforming their Industry Price Change in the Quarter, Growth in Net Profit with increasing Profit Margin and MFs increased their shareholding last quarter. The Negative aspects of the company are Declining Net Cash Flow : Companies not able to generate net cash and Companies with growing costs YoY for long term projects.
Entry can be taken after closing above 296 Historical Resistance in the stock will be 306, 319 and 330. PEAK Historic Resistance in the stock will be 345, 355 and 366. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 261 or 234 depending upon your risk taking ability.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Nifty in the Short Term can try to stage further recovery. After the drastic Trump Tariff war shock Nifty is trying to recover it's lost territory closing at 22828. Right now the Nifty is trapped between Mother and Father lines of its Hourly chart. The supports for Nifty remain at 22761 (Mother Line Support), 22675, 22353 and 21859. Below 21859 Nifty becomes very week again. The resistance for Nifty on the upper side remain at 22924 (Strong Father line Resistance), 23174 (Strong Trend line Resistance), 23384, 23569 and finally 23783. Above 23783 closing Nifty will become very Bullish.
Long trade
15min TF overview
✅ Trade Breakdown – Buy-Side (BTC/USDT)
📅 Date: Friday, April 11, 2025
⏰ Time: 5:00 PM – London to NY Session PM
📈 Pair: BTC/USDT
🧭 Direction: Long (Buy)
Trade Parameters:
Entry: 82,168.4
Take Profit (TP): 83,771.5 (+1.95%)
Stop Loss (SL): 81,646.2 (–0.64%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 3.07
🧠 Trade Narrative:
This late-session BTC long appears to align with:
A bullish continuation setup during a potential pullback into demand.
5min TF overview supporting price action narrative.
MARA's Defining Moment: Breakdown or Breakout?MARA Holdings has completed a textbook 5-wave macro impulse, followed by a complex correction, now compressing within a bearish pennant just beneath the key 20.46 resistance.
This level marks a crucial pivot, failure to reclaim it may trigger a steep drop toward the 0.9976 zone, while a breakout above could unlock exponential upside toward 155.68 and 281.27.
The coming price reaction will be decisive in shaping the next macro narrative.
Short trade
15min ~TF overview
📉 Trade Breakdown – Sell-Side (EUR/GBP)
📅 Date: Thursday, April 10, 2025
⏰ Time: 12:30 PM (NY Time) – NY Session AM
📈 Pair: EUR/GBP
🧭 Direction: Short (Sell)
📐 Structure/Concept: Based on PD Array reference (0.5 Target)
Trade Parameters:
Entry: 0.86418
Take Profit (TP): 0.86102 (–0.37%)
Stop Loss (SL): 0.86609 (+0.22%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 1.65
Reason: price reaching a pivotal price level and making a higher high (NY Session) suggests an indication of a sellside trade idea.
Recovery by Nifty, Resistance zone ahead. (Economic commentary)Nifty has given a strong closing amidst global uncertainty. The uncertainty and heavy volatility will remain in the market so traders are requested to be very cautious especially with regards to Futures and Options. Any positive news can trigger a huge upside at the same time any negative news can trigger a huge downside as well.
India is silently staying neutral and trying to chart it's own deal should be seen as a positive view for long term investors. The focus of Indian investors should remain on companies which procure local raw material and supply it locally these will be the safest bets. MET has predicted a normal Monsoon for India with 103% rainfall which can another shot in the arm for Local markets. FMCG, Specialty Chemicals and Fertilizers, Banks and Financial services should be the sectors to focus.
Along with these sectors commodities and Consumption and can also be the theme as these are dark horses which can benefit from volatility. As Crude is sliding down the companies related to energy and those which are dependent on Oil & Gas, Energy for power and raw material can also benefit. The choice of the stocks should be smart at this juncture to reap rewards.
Long term investors should use this opportunity to invest in Blue chips and High Dividend Yield PSUs and other companies if they are sitting on cash. If not you can use these times to reshuffle your portfolios and align them as per the changing needs of the time. Neutral stance from India can even benefit it by getting FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) if Indian Governments plays it's cards smartly. Too much fog, mist and clouds around on global economy currently for investors to get a clear vision of sunrise sectors. Geo-political uncertainties are also blinding and making the objects in front of us look fuzzy. Investors need to keep patience, avoid speculation and let the dust settle. Even after reconsideration of changing global scenarios Indian GDP will still clock 6%+ so do not have much to worry in the long term. This volatility too shall pass and horizon will definitely be visible in the near future.
To know about how to select good companies to invest in read my book THE HAPPY CANDLES WAY TO WEALTH CREATION. It will help you in making solid triumphant decisions during these uncertain times. It teaches you Behavioural Finance, Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, Profit Booking and many such important topics. The book is one of the highest rated in it's category. The book is available in Amazon in Paperback and Kindle version. You can also contact me directly for getting the same.
Nifty supports remain at: 22270, 21743 (Channel Bottom Support), 21281 (52 week Low support), 20745 and 20236. Below 20236 weekly closing the bears can try to Bring Nifty down to 200 Weeks EMA or the FATHER LINE which is at 19893.
Nifty Resistances remain at: 22913, 23249 MOTHER LINE which will be a (Major resistance), 23499 (Strong Trend line resistance), Above 23499 Bulls can become more active and try to Pull Nifty upwards towards 23894, 24334, 24831 and 25419. After we get a monthly closing above 25419 we can think of regaining 26K levels.
Short Term Outlook : Brace for massive volatility.
Medium Term Outlook: Range Bound Nifty.
Long Term Outlook: Still Very Strong.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Nifty Analysis EOD - 11th April 2025📌 Background
After yesterday’s holiday, global cues were positive—especially from the US markets. SGX Nifty indicated a strong gap-up. As expected, Nifty opened at 22,695, right around the previous session’s high and within our marked Resistance Zone.
📌 Today’s Price ActionNifty opened with a sharp gap-up, and the Initial Balance (IB) high was formed at 22,875. The price managed to breach the IB high briefly, triggering a trade signal and filling the gap between 4th and 7th April sessions.However, the index failed to sustain above 22,875–22,900. Momentum fizzled out post-breakout, and Nifty retraced toward the opening zone.
🧊 Intraday range was 228 points, out of which 165 points occurred during the IB phase. Most of the move was already baked in early on.
📉 Despite gaining +429 points intraday, Nifty closed at 22,828, slightly below the previous week’s high of 22,857—which hints at a pause or temporary exhaustion.
📌 Technical OutlookNifty is still playing between supply and demand zones. Today’s rejection from above 22,900 and close below the weekly high indicates a need for further strength or a catalyst to push beyond 23,000 convincingly. A clean break above 22,900–23,000 remains key.
📌 Important Levels
🔼 Resistance Zones
22,857 (Weekly High)
22,900–23,040
23,182
23,340
🔽 Support Zones
22,668 (Breakout Zone)
22,337
22,082 (Previous Lowest Swing Close)
🧠 Strategy Going ForwardIf no negative news flow arises, a retest of 23,000–23,040 is likely. Traders should wait for sustained price action above 22,900 for fresh longs.Avoid aggressive shorts unless the price breaks down below 22,668 with momentum.
📋 Quick Recap✅ Gap-up opening on global cues✅ IB High breached and gap filled✅ 228-point range; majority in IB✅ Resistance at 22,900 held firm✅ Closed below weekly high
🧘 Patience is power. Wait for confirmation beyond resistance.