WTI Crude oil Holds Support Despite OPEC Production IncreaseWTI crude was on the ropes Monday morning following another surprise production increase from OPEC+. Yet despite the weak start to the week, oil prices held above the April low despite the bearish headlines.
Given we've already seen a -15% decline over the prior eight days and a bullish divergence has formed, I suspect some bullish mean reversion is due. Bulls could seek a move to the $60 area, near the April VPOC. Note that the December 2023 low might also provide some resistance along the way.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Candlestick Analysis
Long trade
5min TF ovewrview
📘 Trade Journal Entry
DOGEUSDT (Buy Side)
🗓 Date: Monday, 5th May 2025
⏰ Time: 12:00 PM
📍 Session: London to New York PM Transition
🪙 Pair: DOGE/USDT
📈 Direction: Long (Buy Side)
🔹 Entry Details:
Entry Price: 0.16894
Take Profit: 0.17375 (+2.85%)
Stop Loss: 0.16884 (−0.06%)
Risk-Reward Ratio: 48.1
🔹 Trade Context:
Executed during the London–New York PM crossover, often a key window for major intraday reversals or trend continuations. Market structure showed a series of higher highs, confirming bullish intent and sustained buyside pressure.
Long trade ETHUSDT (Buy Side)
🗓 Date: Monday, 5th May 2025
⏰ Time: 9:30 AM
📍 Session: London AM
🪙 Pair: ETH/USDT
📈 Direction: Long (Buy Side)
🔹 Entry Details:
Entry Price: 1797.34
Take Profit: 1830.55 (+1.85%)
Stop Loss: 1793.65 (−0.21%)
Risk-Reward Ratio: 8.98
🔹 Trade Context:
Executed during the London AM session, often characterised by clean intraday price action and strong directional intent. Entry followed clear buyside pressure confirmation, with price consistently breaking highs.
Long tradeSOLUSDT (Buy Side)
🗓 Date: Monday, 5th May 2025
⏰ Time: 12:30 PM
📍 Session: London AM
Pair: SOL/USDT
📈 Direction: Long (Buy Side)
Entry Price: 143.920
Take Profit: 146.443 (+1.75%)
Stop Loss: 143.740 (−0.13%)
Risk-Reward Ratio: 14.02
Reason: Based on observation of price action and momentum to the upside, as well as observing ETH and BTC served as confirmation to the buyside trade.
15min TF overview
Long trade
📘 Trade Journal
Entry BTCUSD (Buy Side)
🗓 Date: Monday, 5th May 2025
⏰ Time: 12:00 PM
📍 Session: London to New York Overlap (AM)
Pair: BTC/USD
📈 Direction: Long (Buy Side)
🔹 Entry Details:
Entry Price: 93,883.46
Take Profit: 94,533.51 (+0.69%)
Stop Loss: 93,858.02 (−0.03%)
Risk-Reward Ratio: 25.55
🔹 Trade Context:
Entered during the London–New York overlap, a peak liquidity window where breakout and continuation setups often occur.
Israel-Houthi conflict could put gold back on the bull run🗞News side:
1. The Israeli president said that they are on the eve of a "large-scale attack on the Gaza Strip"
2. The Houthi armed forces stated that all Israeli airports are their targets
3. The situation of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the follow-up events of the India-Pakistan conflict
📈Technical aspects:
From a technical point of view, the current 1H moving average of gold is spreading upward, resulting in a small retracement. The short orders we hold are also closed in time at 3310 to lock in profits. After gold broke through the previous range, the upward channel opened. The 4H MACD diverged from the bottom, the golden cross and the green column enlarged, opening upward, and the overall 4H trend was bullish. Moreover, the support effect of the middle rail of the Bollinger Bands is obvious, and the gold price is accumulating strength below the upper rail of the Bollinger Bands, with strong upward momentum. Pay attention to 3310. After the support stabilizes, you can consider participating in long positions near 3310-3320, focusing on the 3290 line below; focus on 3375 above, and then consider participating in short sales near 3355-3365 after the pressure is under.
If you agree with this point of view, or you have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
TVC:GOLD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Start shorting gold and seize the opportunity to make a profit!!Fundamentals:
Focus on Trump and the Fed
Technical aspects:
Gold fell back to around 3253 and then rebounded, and continued to rise to around 3318. The upward momentum in the short term looks particularly strong. According to the current structure, as gold gradually rebounds, off-market buying funds gradually enter the market, pushing gold further up. However, when facing the previous turning point position area of 3325-3335, the market is cautious and it is difficult to break through this area in a short period of time. Therefore, when gold gradually approaches the 3325-3335 area, gold may usher in a wave of retracement in the short term; obviously, the retracement area we can foresee is the 3295-3285 area first.
Trading strategy:
Consider shorting gold in the 3315-3325 area, TP: 3295-3285
CHFJPY: Pullback From Support 🇨🇭🇯🇵
There is a high chance that CHFJPY will pull back from
the underlined intraday horizontal support.
As a confirmation, I see a bullish imbalance candle
after a release of today's Swiss CPI data.
Goal - 175.37
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How to plan when gold’s rise encounters resistance🗞News side:
1. Pay attention to the recent trade situation and news about the Fed's interest rate cuts
2. Be wary of DXY trends
3. The situation of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the follow-up events of the India-Pakistan conflict
4.Trump imposes 100% tariff on non-US films
📈Technical aspects:
Compared with today's market, the morning rise happened to be a sideways price, breaking through the previous high point. In a volatile rise, it doesn't matter. It is very likely that in the later trend, the price will return to the starting point or even lower, but it can continue to rise. This is a feature of the shock. At the same time, the current market is not extremely strong, and it is still in a volatile rise. Therefore, do not chase long, but retrace as much support as possible.
🎁SELL 3315-3325
🎁TP 3280-3270
🎁BUY 3270-3280
🎁TP 3300-3310
If you agree with this point of view, or you have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
Long trade
15min TF overview
ETHUSDT (Buy Side)
🗓 Date: Monday, 5th May 2025
⏰ Time: 2:30 AM
📍 Session: Tokyo AM
Pair: ETH/USDT
📈 Direction: Long (Buy Side)
Entry Details:
Entry Price: 1816.49
Take Profit: 1834.51 (+0.99%)
Stop Loss: 1814.37 (−0.12%)
Risk-Reward Ratio: 8.5
🔹 Trade Reasoning:
📌 Observed consistent buyside pressure building
📌 Price respected FVG
📌 Upside target: Asian High liquidity anticipating a sweep or range expansion.
Long trade
15min TF overview
Entry — DOGEUSDT (Buy Side)
🗓 Date: Monday, 5th May 2025
⏰ Time: 2:30 AM
📍 Session: Tokyo to London AM Transition
Pair: DOGE/USDT
📈 Direction: Long (Buy Side)
🔹 Entry Details:
Entry Price: 0.17316
Take Profit: 0.17465 (+0.86%)
Stop Loss: 0.17277 (−0.23%)
Risk-Reward Ratio: 3.82
🔹 Trade Context:
Entered during the Tokyo–London session transition, where directional momentum often begins to form. Structure showed higher highs, indicating sustained buyside pressure. Entry aligned with a respected Fair Value Gap (FVG), which held the price
🔹 Trade Reasoning:
✅ Buyside pressure confirmed through price action
✅ Higher highs forming on the intraday chart
✅ Entry from a respected FVG, confirming support
How to arrange when gold fluctuates upward🗞News side:
1. Pay attention to the recent trade situation and news about the Fed's interest rate cuts
2. Be wary of DXY trends
3. The situation of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the follow-up events of the India-Pakistan conflict
4.Trump imposes 100% tariff on non-US films
📈Technical aspects:
In the morning, we seized the opportunity to short and earn a wave of profits. Then gold fell back to 3255 and rebounded again, moving upward in a fluctuating manner. From the hourly chart, Friday's low was around 3220 and today's high was around 3270. In this trend, 3255 may be the short-term low for short-term trading. From the daily chart, gold has closed the cross star. The current gold price is more critical. If it breaks through 3285, it may continue to rise to the 3295-3300 line. If the gold price fails to effectively break through 3285, it may usher in a wave of retracement. It will be a good time for us to go long.
If you agree with this point of view, or you have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
TVC:GOLD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
S&P ES Long setup target 5963.50 / Calls SPY target 596Fibonacci technical analysis : S&P 500 E-mini Futures CME_MINI:ES1! has already found support at the Fib level 78.6% (5623.50) of my Down Fib. Last Daily candle (May 2) has closed above retracement Fib level 78.6%. My Down Fib guides me to look for CME_MINI:ES1! to eventually go up to hit first target at Fib level 127.2% (5963.50).
CME_MINI:ES1! – Target 1 at 127.2% (5963.50), Target 2 at 161.8% (6205.50) and Target 3 at 178.6 (6322.75)
Stop loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement Fib level (5506.25).
Option Traders : My AMEX:SPY chart Down Fib shows price to go up to Target 1 at 127.2% (595.82), Target 2 at 161.8% (620.50) and Target 3 at 178.6 (632.50)
Stop loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement Fib level (549).
Enjoy the trading process and take time to smell the roses🌹
Dow Jones - April ReviewUnlike ES and NQ, YM has the potential to book massive gains if the algorithm was to spool prices higher into the $42,836 lower range FVG in comparison to the others. However, if the market is weaker than many anticipate, YM could be frontrunning the overall stock index pairs (out of NQ, ES and YM) to the downside.
Gun to my head, we are bound for some short term bullish price action back up into the premium array
S&P 500 - April ReviewI see more potential in S&P 500 than Nasdaq for the mere fact that the premium array at $5,773.25 - $5,902.50 has not been met yet but Nasdaq has already made it's way inside of the same SIBI imbalance. (refer to my most recent S&P500 analysis)
Aiming for low hanging fruits for now.