Short trade
15min TF overview
Sellside Trade
Pair: BTCUSD
Date: Sunday, 16th February 2025
Session: London Session AM
Time: 7:15 AM (NY Time)
Entry 30min TF
Observed 4Hr TF
Trade Details:
Entry: 97,198.0
Profit Level: 96,863.5 (+0.34%)
Stop Level: 97,320.5 (-0.13%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 2.73
Reason: This sellside trade is based on market structure, liquidity sweeps, and session timing, proceeding from NY to LND Session.
Candlestick Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Period of Consolidation and Uncertainty⚠️ Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Wave Analysis
Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase, trading within a wide horizontal range on the daily chart after a strong bullish rally.
- **Resistance Zone:** 106,027 - 109,582 (Aligns with the All-Time High resistance)
- **Support Zone:** 89,378 - 92,797
There are two possible scenarios based on price action at these key levels:
1. **Bullish Breakout:** A confirmed breakout and close above resistance could trigger another upward wave, targeting at least 120,040.
2. **Bearish Breakdown:** A break below support may indicate a corrective move.
It is advisable to wait for a decisive breakout before making trading decisions.
BITCOIN (BTCUSD): Consolidation and Complete Indecision Here is the wave analysis for ⚠️BITCOIN
The market is currently in a consolidation phase, trading within a wide horizontal range on a daily, following a strong bullish move.
The resistance of the range is between 109,582 and 106,027, while the support is between 92,797 and 89,378.
The upper boundary of the range aligns with the All-Time High resistance.
Depending on how the price reacts to the range boundaries, there are two potential scenarios. If the price breaks and closes above the resistance, we can expect another bullish wave towards at least 120,040.
On the other hand, a bearish breakout below the support could signal a correctional movement.
It is advisable to wait for a breakout before making any trading decisions.
GbpUsd could continue its reboundAfter breaking above the falling trendline from the end of January, GBP/USD has entered a consolidation phase between 1.23 and 1.25.
Recently, the pair tested the support zone once more and began to rebound.
In my opinion, the upward movement will continue, and we could see a test of the next resistance above 1.26.
In conclusion, I am looking to buy dips below 1.24, with invalidation occurring on a daily close below 1.23.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
PENGU Update: Not looking as good. I was hopeful for a nice rally from here, but PENGU is now looking quite questionable after its failed breakout.
It has room to make it to the next fib level down which is the .786 pocket if it wants to. That is from .005591-.006454.
We could still pivot from this area, but I wanted to post this because I called a long from this area, and now it is looking a lot more grim after we got reversal candle on the 12H, followed by a confirmation candle. That is strong for a new coin that is in a downtrend.
Thank you!
S&P 500 (March 2025) - A Whole Heap Of Mumbo JumboThe markets is not presenting low resistance liquidity runs due to all the politics and tariffs being implemented right now but once things settle, ES will be in for the chance to test all time highs once again.
What we saw is perfection with the alignment of my bearish bias and how price respected the daily FVG @ $5,950 (mapped out with the red rectangle tool) on the Sunday going into Monday before repricing higher inside of the gap.
Made in England.. FTSE 100 Triangle BreakoutFinally the long term triangle pattern in blue chip UK stocks has broken - and the weekly chart for the FTSE 100 index is looking very positive.
The breakout weekly candle is a long one with a close right near the highs - showing bulls are well in control of the market.
We can see the triangle break in more granular detail on the daily chart with the break confirmed on Thursday and a strong follow-through move on Friday.
Support is found first at the former all time high (8450-8475) then back at the broken trendline from the triangle pattern.
These support levels define our risk - the price back inside the triangle will inform us the breakout has failed - this time at least.
But if things move as we expect, using the height of the triangle pattern as a price objective from the breakout point, the UK 100 could reach 9,000.
But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas with us - OR - send us a request!
Comments welcome :)
cheers!
Jasper
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Weekly USDCAD Short - Wyckoff Upthrust & a triple topAfter the second week closed below the highest bar that poked the previous high we have a strong confirmation to short this Upthrust to the downside. The Poke bar on its own is a sizable one. Our final target is the downside of this range. We also have a Triple Top bearing. On the monthly chart, we are coming from a big downtrend although, on the weekly chart, we can say this is a countertrend trade - we bet that we are in a range at the moment.
Giving and option for take profit target and a final one.
That will be a fairly long trade if it works out properly.
Next week Idea The rejection at 33.165 was massive. I saw it late that's why I didn't share in my insight before the massive drop form that point of interest.
Next wee might just be bearish for most of the days, probably Tuesday would be the weekly high, Thursday and Friday weekly low.
What's your insights on Silver?
Kindly boost of you find this insightful 🫴
Near Protocol AnalysisNear Protocol Analysis:
Near Protocol is currently trading at 3.565, having recently broken through a critical support level. This breakdown has altered the technical structure of the asset, as the price now appears to be retesting the previously breached support zone, which has since transformed into resistance. In technical analysis, such a retest of a broken support level often serves as a key confirmation point for potential trend continuation. Should the current candle close decisively below this newly established resistance level, it could indicate a resumption of the bearish momentum, potentially paving the way for further downward movement.
It is important to consider that the reliability of this bearish outlook will depend on several factors, including the volume accompanying the price action and the broader market sentiment surrounding Near Protocol. Traders should also remain cautious of any signs of rejection or potential reversal patterns at this critical juncture, as these could invalidate the bearish thesis and suggest a shift in market dynamics.
In conclusion, while the current price action suggests a potential continuation of the downtrend.
We would be interested in hearing your perspective on this analysis and whether you concur with the potential bearish outlook for Near Protocol. As always, trade responsibly and prioritize risk management.
NQ heading down until AprilBased on time fib the top should remain Dec 17th. I think it will reverse down from the daily FVG and head down towards 195xx, which is another daily VIB and 3,5 std from last manipulation leg up. Time fib with Feigenbaum projection suggests the bottom will happen around April
EURNZD Wave Analysis – 14 February 2025
- EURNZD reversed from long-term resistance level 1.8495
- Likely to fall to support level 1.8200
EURNZD currency pair recently reversed down from the major long-term resistance level 1.8495, which has been reversing the price from the middle of 2023, as can be seen below.
If the pair closes today near the current levels it will form the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Shooting Star – a strong sell signal for this currency pair.
Given the strength of the resistance level 1.8495 and the bearish euro sentiment seen today, EURNZD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.8200.
BTC Dominance Drops: Is the Alt Season About to Begin?Hello, Traders!
After its recent rise to 64%, BTC.D started to decline slowly and currently dropped below 61%.
In order to resume alt season, BTC.D needs to drop at least below 57% and hold below that mark for a prolonged period of time.
Ideally, it should break below 54% to make a lower low and confirm a sustained downward trend.
Historically, when BTC.D enters a clear downtrend, liquidity flows into altcoins, leading to significant rallies across the board.
I don’t think that even if the alt season really takes off, we will see BTC.D much below 48%—perhaps 45%, but not lower.
At that level, the market typically starts rotating back into BTC, capping further dominance declines.
However, if BTC stagnates while liquidity continues flowing into alts, a deeper drop isn’t entirely out of the question.
One of the potential catalysts for a BTC.D decline and the start of the alt season is Ethereum’s upcoming Pectra upgrade.
Historically, ETH has shown strong performance ahead of major network upgrades, often doubling in price in anticipation.
If history repeats itself, we could see increased demand for ETH, driving capital into the broader altcoin market.
The Pectra upgrade is scheduled for April 8, meaning we might see altcoins gaining momentum in the next couple of weeks.
If BTC remains stable and ETH starts outpacing it, this could create the perfect conditions for the much-anticipated alt season.
Keep an eye on ETH/BTC as well—it could serve as an early indicator of the shift. 🚀
Please don’t forget to boost this idea and leave your comments below.
Nifty did well to hold on to crucial support. Can it hold ?Nifty did well today to bounce back from the lows of the day at 22774 to close at 22929. Holding this support is key. Under the pressure of relentless selling the market is in bear grip as of now. This is a good time to identify long term investment opportunities. Gaining immediate profits and fast recovery looks little difficult as of now. (You can not be 100% sure about the tops and bottoms of the market.) Next few months will give ample opportunities to average/add on bounce only. Mother father line supports and Resistances are the key to any investment during the bear phase of market. Patience of investors will be tested in the coming few weeks and months. Reshuffling your portfolios in favour of Fundamentally strong stocks that are going or still above 50 and 200 weeks EMA or Mother father line will be key. This is a stock pickers market. The forth that had build up post COVID rally is being cleared. Corrections are healthy sign for long term investors. Stock market is a place where money is transferred from the impatient to the patient. Pain will remain in the market for a short to medium term but hopefully great time and great rally awaits us in medium to long term. This next few weeks and probably months will test the new investors. Those who have seen a few Bull and Bear cycles know that good times do return eventually on the browsers.
Nifty Supports remain at: 22758, 22159, 21810 and finally 21302.
Nifty Resistances remain at: 23128, 23259 and 23435. Major hurdles for Bulls remain near Mother line at 23554 and Father line 23594. After a closing above 23838 only Bulls can be back into the game.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
GBPJPY Short ideaOn a solely technical analysis trade idea, I'm placing a short on OANDA:GBPJPY for the day on pre-NY session and hopefully keeping it thru the day and re-assessing how it evolves.
With a weekly bearish close, and yesterday's bearish close, I saw a Asia sweep during the london session, leaving an imbalance where I'm trading off of. The easy target is yesterday's low for a 1:3, but I'll watch it as it could go deeper if the week were to close bearish.