DXY Bearish Forecast for Quarter 2, 20251. Technical analysis
The idea is based in ICT's PO3; AMD pattern.
We have a rally above the open price of May 2025, to take out BSL above the highs.
It also aligns with Daily tf premium arrays to short from.
The lowest hanging fruit being the relative equal lows at equilibrium of the dealing range.
2. Fundamental analysis
Investor's confidence in the Dollar is low due to POTUS' tariffs.
ICT: Inner Circle Trader
PO3: Power of 3
AMD: Accumulation, Manipulation & Distribution
BSL: Buy side liquidity
tf: Timeframe
Candlestick Analysis
NFP market, looking for opportunities to short goldFundamentals:
Mainly focus on today's NFP market;
Technical aspects:
Gold rebounded near 3200 and has gradually rebounded to around 3265. This wave of rebound is not surprising. After all, I have been insisting on short-term long gold since yesterday, and I have also gained a good profit. As gold falls and breaks through many key supports, my expectations for the magnitude of this rebound are not high. In the short term, it will first face resistance in the 3270-3275 area, and secondly, it will face resistance in the 3285-3295 area.
Moreover, the rebound and rise of gold before the NFP market is very confusing in itself. It is not ruled out that it is to pave the way for the sharp drop in the NFP market. Once gold falls again, it is likely to fall below 3200 and continue to around 3180.
Trading strategy:
1. Consider shorting gold when it rebounds to 3270-3280, TP: 3240-3230;
2. Consider continuing to short gold when it rebounds to 3280-3290, TP is the same as above.
Nifty eyeing Trendline breakout amidst uncertainty. Amidst uncertainty on Geo-Political front Nifty gave up 242 points it had gained earlier in the day. Also it bounced 108 points from the day's low to close 12 points in positive at 24346.7 in a highly volatile Friday.
Reliance remains start of the week after posting stellar results earlier in the week. The Trendline resistance zone between 24365 and 24589 remains difficult to conquer for Nifty. Once we get a closing above 24589 can the bulls try to pull Nifty further up towards 24910 and 25K+ levels.
Incase the trend line resistance is not crossed successfully the support for Nifty remains at 24048, 23852 and 23343. As of now it looks that the level of 23343 which is the Mother line of Weekly candle chart (strong Support) can be breached only if there is flare up of incidents on the Border or elsewhere.
The situation at Indo-Pak Border remains delicate and tense that might be one reason why investors did not carry long positions into the weekend and Nifty lost most of it's gains.
Right now a lot depends on what happens between the 2 nations and surrounding region. Investment in large cap companies remains the safest option looking at the uncertainty. Even in the case of flare-up at the border these companies will be the first to bounce back after situation normalises.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
USDJPY: Time to Recover?!The USDJPY chart formed an inverted cup & handle pattern that has broken its neckline on a daily timeframe, signaling a confirmed Change of Character (CHoCH) and suggesting a potential bullish reversal.
This could lead to a market recovery and a possible move towards the 146.00 level in the near future.
EURCAD: True Bearish Reversal?!EURCAD formed a classic head and shoulders pattern following a retesting of an important historical resistance level.
A break below the neckline, accompanied by a strong bullish candle, confirms a bearish signal.
I anticipate a corrective movement, potentially reaching as low as 1.5555.
NASDAQ INDEX (US100): Time for Pullback
There is a high chance that US100 will retrace from the underlined
blue daily resistance.
I spotted a double top pattern on a 4h time frame after its test
and a nice bearish imbalance candle that was formed
during the NY session yesterday as confirmations.
Goal - 19590
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How to layout gold before non-agricultural data🗞News side:
1. Progress in Sino-US tariff negotiations: The United States has recently contacted China through multiple channels, releasing signals that a trade agreement may be reached. Market concerns about trade friction have significantly cooled down, weakening the safe-haven appeal of gold.
2. The U.S. non-farm payrolls report for April will be released today (expected to add 130,000 new jobs). If the data is weak, it may strengthen expectations for an interest rate cut. On the contrary, if it is stronger than expected, the interest rate cut schedule may be further delayed.
📈Technical aspects:
Gold bottomed out yesterday and has now rebounded to around 3250. For the current market situation, the previous low of 3260-3270 has become an important resistance level above the gold price after the top-to-bottom conversion. In addition, non-agricultural data will be released in the U.S. market today. Therefore, if gold wants to reverse upward, the first resistance will be in the 3260-3270 range. If the counter pull from the bottom fails to stabilize at 3270, then there will be a downward trend. If it breaks through this resistance range, it may test the 3286 line. Before the release of non-agricultural data, the European market can be shorted when encountering resistance at 3260-3270. Everyone is waiting patiently for the opportunity to enter. The following focuses on the important support of 3200.
If you agree with this point of view, or you have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
WTI: Break It or Bounce ItIf other cyclical asset classes are rallying like a global recession can be avoided, then why shouldn’t crude oil? Yes, there are reports OPEC+ may increase output again, and we know Donald Trump wants lower prices, but those factors should already be priced in. The true swing factor is demand—and if it’s not about to fall in a heap, why should crude?
We’ve now seen three violent rallies from beneath $57.30, including when the level was established in early 2021. If price were to return to those levels in the near-term, it could offer a decent swing trade. Longs could be established above with a stop beneath for protection, targeting a run back to $60.45, a minor level that acted as both support and resistance in April. If that were to give way, a move towards key resistance at $65.27 could follow.
Another option would be to wait for a sustained push above $60.45, allowing longs to be established on the break with a stop beneath, targeting $65.27. Of the two setups, this one screens as higher risk given how lightly $60.45 has been tested.
Momentum remains with the bears, which normally favours selling rips over buying dips. But in these headline-driven markets, that signal may not carry its usual weight. For what it’s worth, downside momentum is easing for now.
A close beneath $57.30 would invalidate the countertrend bullish setup.
Good luck!
DS
Looking to short CL to continue lowerCL is making a corrective move higher before moving down to the ultimate target of last Daily structure leg down. It retraced to Daily bearish Fair Value Gaps (internal range liquidity zones) which should act as resistance. 15M bearish structure is in Extreme premium.
I'm looking for CL to break down bullish corrective structure on 5M chart and start a final move down.
El Sewedy Electric Stock Trend AnalysisEl Sewedy Electric stock trend rose last period from the support line 78.287 to the resistance line 88.149, then rebounded to reach the support line 78.65, so the general trend was down by 0.24%. The stock rose, and broke the first support line 78.65 to reach the second support line 78.7574, then the third support line 78.858. On the other hand, when the stock rebounded, it broke the first resistance line 88.045 to reach the second resistance line 86.073, then the third resistance line 85.554
GRTUSDT Triangle Coil Tension Builds Bullish Breakout in FocusGRTUSDT is forming a clean symmetrical triangle with price rebounding from the lower trendline which brings an encouraging signal for potential continuation to the upside.
As long as the structure holds, we anticipate a breakout above the triangle, which could ignite strong bullish momentum. The external demand zone remains ideal for strategic accumulation, while the internal supply area should be monitored for signs of short-term rejection.
If buyers absorb pressure at that level, GRT could rally toward the crucial upper supply zone, which marks the next major area for distribution. Let’s see how this unfolds, feel free to share your perspective.
With Dow at Resistance, it Could be Make or Break for ASX 200The Dow Jones tends to share the strongest correlation with the ASX 200, out of the three Wall Street indices. It is therefore worth noting that Dow futures formed a bearish pinbar at trend resistance on Thursday, following an intraday false break of the March low. The daily RSI (2) was also overbought by the day’s close. The March 31 low also hovers nearby for additional resistance.
Given futures volumes were declining while Dow futures rose, I suspect a pullback is due.
ASX 200 futures formed a hanging man candle beneath the January high, near a weekly VPOC (volume point of control). The 200-day SMA also hovers nearby. A bearish divergence has also formed on the daily RSI (2). And like the Dow, volumes were declining while ASX prices rose.
Bears could fade into moves around the Jan low or 2000-day SMA with an initial target at the March high, a break beneath which assumes aa deeper pullback towards the 7939 VPOC and 7900 handle.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Litecoin Apocalypse, $20 forecast threatens investor extinctionIt is no secret.... Without Worries maintains a negative outlook on underdeveloped legacy crypto projects. Legacy refers to projects that have been around since 2017 with little to no development since that time. And yet they all continue to attract a significant number of long ideas.
To name a few from 2017 price action to present day:
Dash $108 versus $23
EOS. $2.40 versus 70 cents
Ethereum Classic $22 vs $17
Arguably Ethereum $471 versus $1800
Litecoin. $86 versus $86
Monero. $163 versus $255
Litecoin is amongst those without development to speak of. Despite the historical significance as one of the original Bitcoin alternatives, the monthly chart reveals a troubling pattern.
The false breakout of 2025
=====================
The pink boxes highlight the consolidation periods prior to each bull market cycle. Points 1 and 2 identify the resistance tests. The 3rd test, as is often the case in Technical Analysis, prints the breakout as indicated by the red boxes. However in 2025 after the breakout price action was returned to the consolidation area. This is a strong bearish signal. An indication buyers had no strength for momentum, which was evident from the February monthly hanging man candle print.
Monthly bearish engulfing candles
==========================
The red arrows mark each bearish engulfing candle print that followed a rally in price action. A significant correction in price action, 80% corrections, in each insistence followed the print. Is this time different? I’m sure the bulls will say so.
Going forward
===========
The bullish outlook:
Price action must recover from the fake-out with a volume sized move above $160 to undo the bearish signal. This would void the idea of a strong correction.
The bearish outlook:
Price action returning to the consolidation area is incredibly weak.
A collapse in price action would begin with a monthly candle print under $60, the consolidation area. Trade is active on this condition.
The condition would develop the $20 forecast, however the bear flag forecasts a correction of 87% to the $10 area.
Ww
Try going long gold in small batchesFundamentals:
Focus on US economic data and Fed dynamics;
Technical aspects:
Gold continues to fall and is currently testing the 3200 mark. It is undeniable that gold is currently in a clear bearish trend, and the foreseeable area below is the 3185-3175 area, which is a strong support in the short term. However, the long and short sides are currently wrestling at the 3200 mark, and I think there will still be repetitions in the short term. So gold should rebound before falling to the 3185-3175 area.
Trading strategy:
Consider trying to go long on gold in small batches in the 3210-3200 area, TP: 3220-3230.
Please note: In order to protect the security of the account, as gold rebounds, you can consider gradually moving up the SL to ensure profits.
CAD/JPY: Price at Decision Point – Key Support in PlayWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** CADJPY Analysis !
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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Inverted head and shoulders pattern! Yet to be broken! As we can see despite the gap it failed to break and sustain above the structure hence made it void but looking at NIFTY we can see the structure is still there which is yet to broken hence we can wait for candle to close above the given structure for a unidirectional rally so plan your trades accordingly and keep watching everyone.
Gold's evening rebound continues to be bearishAffected by the initial jobless claims data, gold has rebounded and risen again to around 3220 after touching around 3203. As we mentioned in the previous trading idea, short selling is still our main trading method before there is a big data impact. For the time being, we will first look at the first-line resistance of 3240-3250. If it breaks through this resistance range, we will further look at the key resistance of 3260-3270. If it does not break, we will go short.
There is an obvious downhill trend in the weekly line, which is expected to form a continuous negative trend. Then we look to the 3210-3200 support level to remain unchanged, and may even continue to look to the early low support line of 3193.
SELL 3240-3250
TP 3210-3200
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OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
Gold continues to fall, is it expected to reach 3210-3200?Yesterday we mentioned that the market may present a convergent triangle pattern. Today, the gold price has indeed ushered in a wave of sharp declines at the opening of the Asian session, and has fallen below the key support of 3260, and the lowest level has reached 3221. At present, the 1H moving average is spreading downward. In the short term, gold is still in a downward trend and is in a correction to overbought. The gold price is expected to reach 3210-3200. If it falls below this support range, it may even test the previous low of 3193. But at the same time, the 1H RSI indicator has fallen into the oversold area. Therefore, in terms of news, we need to pay attention to the initial jobless claims and PMI data during the US trading session today, and beware of the rebound after the correction.
Many friends who have read my posts have reported that my trading ideas and strategies are very helpful to them. I always firmly believe that profitability is the criterion for measuring strength, and seizing the opportunity is the key to victory. I will post every day to share my trading strategies and ideas for free. If you have just entered the market and don’t know how to make more profits, if you are already in it but the harvest is not ideal, then you might consider taking a look at my profile.
TVC:GOLD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
The bearish trend is obvious, 3180 is foreseeable!Fundamentals:
Focus on US economic data and Fed dynamics;
Technical aspects:
After gold fell below the recent low support area of 3260, the bearish trend became more obvious. Although gold has stopped falling near 3220, there is no obvious sign of bottoming out. From the current structure, gold still has room to fall, and the area near 3180 can be foreseen in the short term. However, after a sharp drop in gold, there may still be repetitions in the short term, so it is not advisable to over-short gold for the time being. Gold still has the possibility of a short-term rebound to the 3245-3255 area.
Trading strategy:
1. Consider waiting for gold to rebound to the 3245-3255 area before shorting gold; TP: 3235-3225;
2. Consider trying to go long on gold in small batches in the 2330-2320 area, TP: 3245-3255, and then short gold after reaching the target area.